JeffB

On Walenski’s statement yesterday and her doomsday prediction ……. Look, new case numbers are rising, right? She's a smart woman and there are a lot of smart folks around her ...... drops head and sulks, "she's probably right." The pandemic is going to go on and continue to interrupt normal life for years. Wait, I have some questions: In what age group are cases rising? Should we be overly concerned about transmission in the 18-35 crowd where it has been clear for months that this cohort has mild symptoms from an infection? Are at risk groups dying at a higher rate because younger people are getting infected and spreading it to higher risk groups? If so, wouldn't that mean increasing deaths, CFR and hospitalizations? Where are these rising case numbers occurring? Which regions of the country and world are approaching or even reaching herd immunity and doing well? What is the impact of vaccines on serious illness, deaths and transmission rates across all age groups? Do you think it's just possible that focusing more on a vaccine drive, getting everyone in the US vaccinated might be better than doomsday predictions? CONTEXT is completely missing and has been since the beginning of the number crunching designed to track the course of SARS2 pandemic. The messaging coming from the world renowned CDC is counterproductive. Going forward there are discernible end points. They aren't tomorrow or next week or even next month but the US and other countries that have their vaccination programs up and running are moving toward them. I’m pretty sure that the CDC sees Americans as not smart enough to understand the nuances, the subtleties of significant improvement in the word's chances to end the pandemic. With that end comes a return to something less than but very much like pre-pandemic life. Instead, they keep beating the “hold on for a while” drum. The way to talk about this is by outlining the progress and the risks going forward and how to lessen their impact that might delay a return to normal life in a post SARS2 pandemic world. I found this article yesterday. It's long, detailed and very encouraging. There author defines to important pandemic related endpoints. (1) Resumption of mostly unrestricted life and commerce, (2) Herd immunity that follows and results in other than sporadic virus outbreaks that are easily controlled. Takeaways include from the article linked below: The US will probably reach herd immunity in the third quarter. In anticipation of that, PH officials will start, or should start, easing mobility restrictions along with prohibitions on certain type of activities. There are risks to achieving those two end points: SARS2 variants rendering vaccines less effective in preventing disease and transmission, immunity from previous infection or vaccination being of shorter duration than most anticipate, vaccine supply and/or distribution delays and interruptions among a few other. In this report, and contrary to the Walenski dire warnings, scant mention is made of doomsday scenarios or a need for humans to "not let their guard down" .... whatever that actually means. Hide in the basement, don't go out at all? I have no idea because the central thrust of our public health messaging is that impending doom is close. It's not on how to safely and responsibly go about one's life in the current circumstance. Specifically, with increasing vaccine availability, vaccination rates and proven reduced transmission rates the pandemic is going to end. Read this and my advice is to take whatever Walenski and the CDC has to say going forward with a grain of salt: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/...9-pandemic-end

This trial studied how many "essential workers" considered to be at high risk of exposure to persons infected with SARS2, by virtue of their line of work, actually became infected over varying times after vaccination. What's behind these 80% effective after the first dose and 90% after the second numbers? 3950 participants. After the first dose of an mRNA vaccine, in a controlled for post vaccination times analysis before the second dose, eight participants tested + for COVID by PCR. After the second dose, also in a controlled for times post vaccination analysis, 3 participants tested + for COVID by PCR Let me reiterate that ....... 3 people out of 3950 got infected after their second vaccine dose > 14d. THREE. You have to read the study if this sort of thing interests you to understand how that data translates to the 80% and 90% numbers. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM53321&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR Early Release - Vol. 70%2C March 29%2C 2021&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM53321 The study did not evaluate whether or not the 8 participants that became infected were capable of transmitting the disease. In other studies that have looked at this it has been found that subjects who did become infected with SARS after becoming vaccinated had significantly lower viral loads. What that translates to is a lower likelihood an infected person can pass SARS2 on to an uninfected person. This trail data suggests that on a cruise ship having around 4000 passengers and crew on board, you might get 3 infections regardless of symptoms displayed by an infected person who might have boarded during the cruise. Given how the cruise lines have layered mitigation measures that include pre-boarding PCR testing, onboard surveillance (random rapid tests), ID and isolation of COVID + persons and contact tracing, the risk of a bad COVID outcome on a cruise ship is so small as to be negligible - the cruise lines want it that way and have done a remarkable job of insuring that will be the norm on all operating cruise ships.

........ and the CDC does what to the CSO in response to facts?

This is the downside of jumping in with both feet early on. You're going to pay a premium that appears to be increasing day by day as demand outstrips supply for airline seats, hotel rooms and cabin fares. For most here, I don't think this is a barrier as we all want to get going. Besides the cruise lines need our money after a year of loosing millions a week for nearly 60 straight weeks. I personally don't have a problem with paying premiums to cruise. The rest of it just pure capitalism and the economics of that. My own experience with Celebrity demonstrated this. I aggressively pursued booking Millennium ouf of St. Maartin 0n 6/12. Cabin fares stayed stable during the week I was involved in investigating costs and hurdles. But supply of the best cabins dried up quickly. Airfares went through the roof except for the most inconvenient times and routings out of Miami. AA economy seats previously going for $380pp, NS, RT to SXM, quickly rose to over $1Kpp for NS routing/reasonable times. Hotel rates, usually very expensive in St. Maartin, actually went down. That's competition as resorts are starved for bookings. Happy hunting. It's fun to be back in the game.

The cruise lines have done everything they can do to clear the air on infection control measures in all phases of cruise ship operations and articulate how an infected passenger or crew member would be handled in the unlikely event an infection occurs on a cruise ship that is operating routinely and has fully vaccinated crew and guests. We know this stuff cold. The general public doesn't. The visuals of the Ruby Princess and stranded cruise ships and passengers being portrayed by the MSM on TV and on social media as a major health crisis was disastrous. Those visuals are burned into the public's memories. That cruising is wrongly associated with elitists doesn't help. While we write about it here and praise politicians who advocate for a return to cruise operations out of US ports, the general public doesn't give a horse's patoot about whether cruise operations resume or not. While it's true our political representatives do respond to issues citizens they represent raise and we're seeing that, I'm not at all optimistic that it's going to move the needle toward a restart. For us, it's a huge problem. For most of those governed by western style governments, it's just not.

Your welcome Nessa. You may know I'm a retired PA. I'm following the research on C-19 and SARS2 closely. I'm not going to share any of the information in the link below on this forum with you because of the forum rules. But see if you get your daughter to read this. https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210112/why-covid-vaccines-are-falsely-linked-to-infertility

Neesa, here's a link to pretty current article from one source - I've found it to be very good for all travel related questions. Rapid PCR tests can be obtained but the more quickly you need the results, the more it will cost and themore research it will take on your part to find a location near you that can produce test results in < 48h. I share your concerns over the scary wait for test results when your travel depends on getting one. After reading the article, while it provides some good insight into the process of getting rapid PCR based results it didn't seem to allay concerns I'd have ...... at least you'll be well read on the question. https://thepointsguy.com/guide/where-to-get-covid-test-travel/

The basis of the NSO and what amounts to an extension of it - the CSO - is the PHE. The PHE engages various provisions of Maritime and immigration law - specifically the process by which ports authorize or deny the operations of ships in those ports. That allows enforcement of the no-sail provision by the Department of the Treasury through the USCG. If that sounds complicated and obtuse, that's because it is.

This is why the CDC's imposition via the NSO and CSO on free trade and unrestrained commerce seems like such an easy target for a law suit. I dunno, maybe it is, maybe it isn't. One thing I feel fairly confident about is that the declaration of a PHE gives enormous authority to government that appears on its face to be entirely lawful. We ought to be concerned about that in the future.

Interesting stuff smokeybandit ....... I looked at the cases on the first 4 pages involving the Biden and Trump administrations. I didn't find anything involving HHS and the PHE. I'm not certain but it seems that attorneys have probably looked at HHS's authority to issue PHE's and found them lawful. I still hold, unless shown otherwise, that mounting a successful suit against the FEDs in this narrowly defined circumstance is a non-starter. Too many obstacles to a successful challenge.

To me, as a narrowly described PH policy matter for governments to grapple with, this is so freaking obvious it defies understanding. The way public health policy is derived in the US government exposes existent structural deficiencies. IOW, there's no clean mechanism whereby the executive can weigh risks and benefits, and in the process consider multiple factors, in making and implementing policy decisions. As cruise fans and wrt the CSO, we're stuck with that reality.

Wrong headed and I agree with you. But I reiterate, on the basis of the available science their positions are defensible from a purely public health perspective. Now comes the hard part: You have to assume public health agencies should know their roles and that is an advisory one to the executive. The executive should take inputs from multiple sources when weighing the consequences of various emergency measures. I think what we're seeing in most western governments is a default to weighting the risks of COVID disease burden over the economic and social costs absent the impact of vaccinations. Vaccinations would tend to weight the scale in favor of the benefit to local economies of a return to cruise ship operations. That brings us to the importance of vaccination rates. The higher those are by region and specific port location the less risky cruise ship operations become and the more sense it makes to restart cruise ship operations.

The take of Australian Health Protection Principal Committee is, what I would assume, is going to be the take of the CDC as it faces pressure to provide relief to the cruise industry in operating ships from US ports. As much as we don't like how these agencies are defining "safe" and "risks to the public health" these positions are rational based on scientific information currently available. The Australian Public Health agency, I assume, is going to check with or staff within the Australian executive branch (the PM's office) in issuing this extension - an advise and consent sort of thing. I would also assume the CDC will staff it's recommendations on a continuation of the CSO in collaboration with HHS's extension of the US PHE. I point this out because it seems that globally public health agencies are seeing the public health risks of cruising in similar ways.

Twangsters and Smokey Bandit have already addressed this ...... It's unlikely that the Biden administration will allow the PHE to expire. The messaging coming from the WH, Fauci and Walenski suggests there is no way it will expire. But, technically, the CSO rests on the existence of the PHE. If the PHE were to expire then technically the CSO is no longer enforceable - not sure the cruise lines would test that though. The more likely scenario for relief is a continuation of pressure on the CDC by members of Congress along with news reporting of it that highlights the irrationality of the CSO, the CDC's lack of transparency and their inexcusable foot dragging in releasing steps to a path forward in a resumption of operations from US ports for the cruise lines. This line of thinking also applies to the issue of relief. There is research that both supports and refutes the CDC position on the risks to public health of the kinds of congregate settings cruising presents. IMO, the cruise lines have demonstrated beyond any doubt that they can mitigate those risks to near zero in all phases of operations. Keep in mind, they have done this in locations where the level of circulating virus is very low to none. Broward and Miami Dade Counties, homes to PEV and POM, both have positivity rates of around 6-7% and rising in the last week. The CDC could correctly argue that those locations have too much circulating virus to be considered safe to sail from. My response to that concern would be (1) Vaccinations and (2) that the cruise lines, port and public health officials in those locations have already worked out plans to deal with an infection occurring in conjunction with cruise ship operations should that unlikely event actually happen.

HHS: Health and Human Services Department NSO: No-Sail-Order PHE: Public Health Emergency CSO: Conditional Sailing Order

There are three categories of disease tracking in epidemiology: Surveillance, Screening and Diagnosis. All of these involve testing of some type, e.g a rapid antigen test is a screening measure, a PCR (Molecular tests) is a diagnostic measure. An example of a surveillance measure is pooled screening tests - surveilling a given population, say a college dormitory or a prison block, to determine how prevalent a disease is. The Tiger-tech product is a screening tool that uses other measures besides antibodies (rapid tests) or proteins (PCR) in oropharyngeal secretions to detect if a person has been infected with SARS2. What's unique about this is that it is simple to administer and avoids sticking things in your nose and throat. It uses AI to produce a probability based on serum biomarkers that the monitor detects via only skin contact that a tested person has COVID. For the cruise lines, I see this as an evolving technology not ready for prime time. Corporate has expended a lot of time, energy and resources in getting to where they are now with rapid antigen and PCR testing. I think they'll stick with that for a while out of the gate. Maybe later.

I live in FL. I like most things Desantis does, not all, but most. Threatening to sue is political posturing and that's not to say this isn't the place for it. About a month ago I did some research on this - I'm not a layer so, take it for what it's worth. But I understand the legal basis upon which CDC recommended and HHS promulgated the NSO and subsequently the CSO. Both of these engaged multiple agencies and relied on taking action through complex, existent legislation. It is very difficult to know who is in charge and who are the decision makers. IMO, it's Becerra of HHS but that is not altogether clear. The questions posed by the Alaska delegation to Director Walenski (see Matt's post on the home page) highlight the complexity of what is keeping the cruise industry banned from operating from US ports and who, in government can grant relief. On review of this a couple months ago, I didn't find anything that the US Government is doing with the CSO that it is not authorized to do under a PHE that was declared in January of 2020 and has been continually renewed every 90d. Last renewal was on January 7th with the next renewal due before it's expiration on April 21st. I posted elsewhere that it is likely the PHE will be extended for another 90d. That does not mean, however, that nothing can be done to get cruise ships sailing from US ports. There are two legitimate gripes but neither of them form a legal basis upon which a violation of US code or law or a tort claim upon which an injunction might be granted: (1) The failure of the CDC to timely release the "technicals" everyone is talking about that tell the cruise industry how to move through the 4 phases CDC laid out in October last year. (2) Those phases have been overcome by events. They're simply not relevant and neither is the CSO now that vaccines are out there and proven to be effective in mitigating both the disease burden and spread of SARS2. The real stumbling block to legal action though is jurisdictional. Who would hear the complaint even if one could be brought. So many obstacles that talking about legal action, IMO, is no more than good theater.

Yeah, it sucks. I was stoked and ready to roll. I'm also a bit compulsive. Fortunately, I have a wife who isn't. She pointed out the downsides that I simply dismissed. Moreover, we have a sailing on Equinox out of PEV on June 13th. I'm hopeful but not optimistic. Not sure what I'll do with that booking, as it is fully paid, when it predictably gets cancelled. Also have Reflection booked out of Amsterdam to Norway in July. Given what's' going on in Europe, I'm even less confident about that one. Final payment comes due in April. Before that happens I'll cancel it and try booking Apex out of Athens - I feel pretty good about that one. I've been tracking COVID in Greece the last couple of days and after Celebrity announced that Apex will sail the Greek isles, at a couple of COVID tracking sites I use. They, like the rest of the EU, are experiencing a rise in new case numbers. Deaths and hospitalizations are up but not at the same rate as new cases - that is good. The Greek government has imposed some tougher restrictions and mobility has decreased by around 50% (cell phone data). What makes me believe vaccinated Americans will be welcome by June or July, as long as control of SARS2 - as measured by the amount of circulating virus (positivity) - can be reestablished, is based on 2 things: (1) The Greek government, compared to the US government, wants to restore tourism and believes risks of doing that are lower than the economic benefits to its citizens. (2) I'm almost certain Celebrity would not be planning to port Apex out of Athens without a clear picture of the public health situation, where Greek PH officials think things are headed and the support of the Greek government to port Apex there.

More layers of complexity to the CSO ........ I have heard of the Public Health Emergency (PHE) but was not clear regarding it's origin and the implications of the PHE on the CSO. I did some digging; The PHE was initially issued by the former HHS Secretary, Alex Azar, January 20th, 2020. Apparently it has a 90 day renewal cycle and it has been renewed on a regular basis - the last renewal done by Azar on January 7th, 2021. Without renewal, it will expire on April, 21st, 2021. One of the provisions in the PHE states that states will be given 60d notice that renewal is not anticipated so that states can prepare for the transition to normal operations. I found this on a CMS (Medicare)web site as Medicare is operating under a different set of policies and procedures within the scope of the PHE: The current PHE declaration expires on April 21, 2021, but the Biden Administration has indicated the PHE will likely remain in place throughout 2021 and that states will receive 60 days notice before the end of the PHE to prepare for the end of emergency authorities and the resumption of pre-PHE rules. Buzz Kill. That notice would have had to gone out sometime in late February and we would have heard about it. I suppose it's possible it will not be renewed but, man, the messaging coming from Walenski and Fauci doesn't seem to make that very likely. Another thing is that the PHE declaration by HHS covers a huge range of government activities. The CDC's CSO is quite limited in it's scope so, political pressure to end it is too narrowly focused to not renew the PHE as a means of ending the CSO.

Similarly, on the Celebrity App, I can see my sailings but if I click on my 6/13/21 cruise it says "we're working on the fun." Check back later. The Celebrity web site lists all my cruises but if you click on the check-in button for my 6/13/21 sailing out of PEV on Equinox, it tells you You are required to download the mobile app prior to sailing Access your digital boarding pass Answer the health questions on the app the day before your sailing Board safely, quickly, and with confidence

After two days of detailed looks at available dates and itineraries for a 7n Millennium sailing out of St. Maartin, after searches using available engines for flights and accommodations pre-cruise, after having my TA put my first priority sail date and cabin on hold with Celebrity, we decided against booking the sailing. Why you ask? The cruise was reasonable, so were the pre-cruise accommodations. In two days, economy airfares had gone from a low of $380, non-stop, R/T MIA, SXM (we've flown there before and that's the going fare, sometimes it's lower) to over $1K for that routing with decent times. You could still book flights for around $440 but routing/times were horrible. To make those flights out of MIA we'd have to Uber to the airport at $100, one way, over an hour trip (nothing out of FLL). We've gotten spoiled living just North of PEV. It's a $35 20m ride to the port, easy on and easy off to get back home (we use Global Entry). The hassle of an expensive flight, managing and paying for COVID entrance requirements in St. Maartin and transportation to/from MIA was just too much. I was watching cabin availability when the bookings went up at the Celebrity site for the 6/19 sailing. No OV or inside cabins were offered. Retreat cabins were gone in about 24h. The good Vernadas in about 36h. Still there was good availability on all 4 of the Millennium sailings in June. Didn't track July. The pricing for a Millennium Veranda, Cat 2C cabin came out at about $235pp/n. I try to target Celebrity Verandas between $130-160pp/n. Pre-pandemic, that was easy to find during off peak times and on less popular itineraries. During the early cruises we're going to pay a bit of a premium. That's to be expected and I don't have a problem with it.

Good stuff Twangster. Thanks for the links

Here's the problem: Getting cruise lines operating from FL's ports isn't about immigration, isn't about equity and justice, it's about the economics of one state's sector of the US economy, albeit not an insubstantial one. I don't think our "dogpile' is big enough or loud enough to push Becerra of HHS into pushing Walenski of the CDC into action. "Public shaming" has it's limits based on the 4d news cycle. I can still hope.

My FL Reps are Senators Rick Scott, and Marco Rubio, my Congressman is Ted Deutch. I know Scott is strongly against the cruise ship ban and has said so in his news letters. Rubio I can't say and Deutch is involved in the Alaska stuff I think. I expect I'll get a boiler plate cut and pasted email from staff members of theirs but I'll be interested to see how they respond .... and they all will.

The target audience for your Congressman and Senators is HHS and it's just confirmed yesterday Secretary, Xavier Becerra The CDC works for him. The biggest hurdle is to get CDC Director Walenski to acknowledge facts on the ground instead of a combination of both good and bad science she seems to be relying on along with an unrealistically cautious approach to disease control in the case of SARS2. She needs to be convinced that waiting for additional benefits of strict mitigation measures (like closing ports to cruise ships to prevent transmission of COVID) are more harmful than any benefits that will be gained. She's already acknowledged, in the video I linked to elsewhere, that deaths and hospitalizations - the true measure of disease burden - have fallen dramatically since the introduction of vaccines in mid-December. Given the vaccination requirement to sail that appears to be base line for RCL, given the demonstration of disease mitigation aboard cruise ships that CLIA has articulated and advanced in their news release, given the huge economic impact that a continuation of the cruise ship ban in the US is unnecessary and harmful.