JeffB

It is absolutely correct to note that the risk of contracting COVID on board a cruise ship is very small and that risk is only slightly higher for a hybrid mix of passengers than it is for a fully (95%) vaccinated passenger manifest. I think we all know this and most of us, including me, are willing to cruise in the hybrid setting. Where the risk is the highest is for the lines themselves. The bottom line is that they can't afford ANY infections for reasons that have been discussed here. So, for them, they are trying to build a zero risk environment. Hats off to all the cruise lines for all that they are doing to achieve this as closely as they can. We are all going to be a lot better off from an infection control standpoint as cruises slowly but steadily return.

Here's the quote and, correct, its from the author and does not reflect Celebrity policy: All Celebrity ships will sail with a vaccinated crew. U.S. guests ages 16 and older must be fully vaccinated and, as of August 1, 2021, all U.S. guests ages 12 and older must be fully vaccinated. This is from the Celebrity web site in the section Healthy at Sea: All guests ages 16 years and older must be fully vaccinated with all Covid-19 vaccine doses administered at least 14 days prior to sailing. As of August 1, 2021, all US Guests age 12 and older must be fully vaccinated. For UK residents, all guests 18 and over must be fully vaccinated with all Covid-19 vaccine doses administered at least 14 days prior to sailing. Crew members onboard will be vaccinated. No distinction is made at the Celebrity web site between US and non-US guests. Everyone has to be vaccinated to sail Another point: Regardless of which path a cruise line choses to purse between 95/98 and test cruises, the CDC requires each ship to be approved to sail by applying to, in fact, sail. There are two sources that apply to and define what this means. They are the Federal Register that contains the actual Framework for Conditional Sailing and Initial Phase COVID-19 Testing Requirements for Protection of Crew and Passengers (October 20th 2020) and the COVID-19 Operations Manual for Simulated and Restricted Voyages under the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order at the CDC web site (last updated May26th 2021). I've provided links to all the applicable documents below. If you really want to be informed about what is behind the CSO and the re-start, I recommend you at least scan them. The Framework for Conditional Sailing Order at the CDC web site (last updated May26th 2021) is the most current source and I found it interesting that the section regarding permission to pursue the 98/95 pathway was just published yesterday via an update to the CDC source! Wow. The cruise lines have to be fully informed of both of these sources to establish what they need to do to apply to the CDC for, obtain approval from the CDC and actually sail. I've just read both of them. What I found interesting is that it appears that the Vessel Sanitation Program (VSP) is a central component to the CSO. A lot of the stuff in the CSO is just a regurgitation of the provisions of the VSP that cruise ships are already in compliance with. That does not mean there are not a lot of hoops to jump through. It means that many of the hoops have already been cleared. TBF to Mr. Fain and RCL, they simply chose another route not any more complex or burdensome than the 95/98 route. What it does mean is that RCL's startup is going to be slower and take longer and this may very well comport with RCL's operations plans and are different than Celebrity's. My post last night was too harsh wrt to RCL and Mr. Fain and to congratulatory of Celebrity's https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/11/04/2020-24477/framework-for-conditional-sailing-and-initial-phase-covid-19-testing-requirements-for-protection-of https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/05/10/2021-09895/conditional-sailing-order-technical-instructions-and-operations-manual https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/covid19-operations-manual-cso.html https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/vsp/desc/aboutvsp.htm

This is the way a great cruise line does it. Deliberate, aggressive, transparent. There's been none of the silly teaser videos, no confusion about sailing plans, just straight forward, this is business. I've posted on the Celebrity thread that I know exactly what's happening and how it will happen on my booked cruise out of Athens on July 9th. @Matt said: Unlike Celebrity, Royal Caribbean will not be able to reach the 95% mandate of passengers being vaccinated by the CDC to skip test cruises. That's not really the case. Mr. Fain, or whoever is running the clown show there, chose to go with a hybrid mix of vaxed and unwaxed passengers and to do the test crises to get certified by the CDC. From a practical standpoint that's potentially putting up unnecessary barriers, e.g., what if the CDC says on the first go, "not good enough, do it again?" From a health health standpoint, I think that creates potential for problems. Although the risk is small, an infection - just one or two - is possible, more possible with a hybrid mix of passengers and unvaccinated people on excursions, catching COVID, in a port with circulating virus and brining it back on board ship. That would be disastrous. I get the family orientation of RCL but get the boats with vaxed passengers on line and go from there. Egg on your face Mr. Fain.

Perhaps. My sense is that there is a degree of chaos. Maybe not getting the word out from the operations division to sales division is a better term. My take is that RCL has been less than transparent and know more about their plans than they release publicly. Why do I think that? Because preparing a ship to come out of warm storage in normal conditions is hard. In a post pandemic setting having to deal with CSO compliance, it is very hard. None of this happens in weeks but instead takes months. If the operations division doesn't have a plan, that doesn't speak well for RCL. If they have one, and I think they do, not letting the sales division and TAs know what it is very bad PR.

This is key. "Breaks you success criteria." Who is setting this? It's a combination or the highly unrealistic, zero risk approach the CDC took with the initial CSO and that RCL appears to be OK with it. It's not OK with lines that have directed everyone needs to be vaccinated to cruise. Period. Full stop. Look, this isn't an easy decision for a cruise line that courts families. I get the fence straddling. Nonetheless, I think it's stupid for RCL to pursue a strategy where you'll have a mix of vaxed and un-vaxed aboard. Complicates everything for the reason you site @LizzyBee23 . OTH, the risk of this happening...... the first cases of transmission detected on board will be among the older group, as they make up a bigger percentage of the passengers on Alaska sailings and it doesn't seem like they will be asked to socially distance onboard by virtue of having had the vaccine. It's also far.more likely someone in that group brings the virus onboard as they are unlikely to mount a fully sterilizing immune response and won't be tested (you could also say the same for anyone who mounted a less than ideal immune response for some reason, or who got J&J without a natural infection to boost). ...... is so low as to be dismissed. The political reality makes it an unacceptable risk to take and therefore the wisest course seems to me to be to require vaccination of all who sail over 12/16. In July and probably through September, you've got cover if you follow that approach. You don't if you accept a hybrid mix of passengers. Hopefully by end of September, none of this will matter.

Its a small detail @TXCruiser but no..... thanks @LizzyBee23. Admittedly, unlike @LizzyBee23I wasn't aware of the connection you made between the PHE and the EUA until you mentioned it. When I looked it up, I found this: The Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act amended section 564 of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic (FD&C) Act, 21 U.S.C. 360bbb-3, to provide more flexibility to the Health and Human Services Secretary to authorize the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to issue an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). The Secretary is no longer required to make a formal determination of a public health emergency under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, 42 U.S.C. 247d before declaring that circumstances justify issuing an EUA. So, it would seem that a cancelling of the PHE would not cancel the EUA as it was authorized directly by HHS to the FDA w/o the requirement to do that under a PHE ..... although, obviously, one was in effect. You almost have to be an attorney skilled in regulatory law to understand this. Interestingly, my son-in-law is one although he works in hospital compliance but we discussed the CSO and although he was not familiar with it, he said maritime regulation law is a highly specialized field wrt to how the CSO came about and added regulatory law in the HHS domain is also very complex. That's what he spends hours trying to sort out for his clients (Vidant HC in NC)

Good catch. When was that section added? If after the chatter from RCL and elsewhere that Seattle was going to be the place from which RCL might sail first and on Alaska itineraries, at least RCL recognizes the potential for confusion and clarifies it. Still lots of unknowns as it pertains to what I believe is imminent restarts from FL ports. But what has been the underpinning of RCL talk ...... there won't be a lot of ships restarting at the same time (July?) and it may be a hybrid mix of test sailings and full revenue sailings from FL, TX and Seattle, maybe others. Has anyone done a spread sheet yet that names/guesses what ships are most likely to sail and from which ports in July/August? That would be a nice project for Twangster, don't ya'll think?

This won't work for everyone but to avoid all of this what I call BS above, I booked a Greek Isles itinerary on 7/9/21 out of Athens on Celebrity Apex months ago. I was betting the restart from US ports would be slow and if it happened at all a confusing mess. Too many players, politics and moving parts. I was over-joyed when Celebrity announced just last week you have to be vaccinated to board Celebrity sailings from Athens (and St. Maartin). I was more over-joyed when I could check in for this cruise using the Celebrity App and doing so made it become pretty clear how all of this was going to go down when I fly to Athens (Celebrity Air) and board at the port of Piraeus. As I mentioned elsewhere, Celebrity's Edge class ships use some neat technology to get you aboard in a hurry and contactless - much like boarding an airliner with a few additions like a FTF health screening before boarding. Hopefully that's present at the port - I can't imagine Celebrity choosing Apex to sail from there on initial restarts without those techy features in place. We'll see. I like certainty and need closure ?

Golf clap ....... this is good news and a step in the right direction. I understand that RCL has submitted documents to the CDC to approve re-starts in unnamed ports and that was done last week. Seattle? Who knows and I think that sucks. I'd speculate that Seattle is one of those ports but, given Fain's vagueness about pertinent details that will determine RCL's authority to sail from there bothers me and I'm not planning on booking an Alaska itinerary anyway. It just bothers me. Are these sailings from Seattle going to be full revenue sailings at 95/98% cruisers or a mix of non-vax and vax passengers with a load of masking requirements? .... or not? If you're hoping to book an Alaska RCL cruise sailing in July- that lie just a few days more than 30d away, people - I'd be pissed at RCL for creating a very short window for your personal decision making and logistics. Then again, August may be more likely and the tease about a July sailing is pure BS. JMO, YMMV.

IMO, unless something bad happens (not likely) by December, in the US anyway, we could be seeing a complete relaxation of the current CSO wrt shipboard sanitation regulations (what the authority and jurisdiction of the CSO springs forth from). My view is that by early fall, the Public Health Emergency (PHE) in the US will have been ended, possibly even sooner than that but, I'll go with "early fall" for now. Depending on what happens globally with vaccination programs and roll-outs the WHO will declare the pandemic over but regional epidemics still a concern. What that means for Americans is that the CSO, as we know and understand it's provision today, will be cancelled by the CDC, significantly improved by the CDC and merged into updates to current sanitation and infection control regulations or ruled by the court in FL currently hearing FL's law suit against HHS/CDC as unlawful. That will result in the CSO being enjoined. Favor improved/merged .... that option may come out of the current mediation effort assigned by the Federal court hearing FL's law suit. BTW, I believe going forward there will also be Congressional hearings on lthe CDC itself and limiting the authority of the CDC to impose policy like the NSO and CSO. I doubt that will happen again. IOW, you (and the rest of us) won't likely be dealing with any of this in sailings from US ports. COVID vaccine seasonal schedules will be as common as flu shots. COVID as a disease will become influenza like. The difference bing more transmissible with a higher death rate but manageable. What we will be dealing with is significantly safer cruising when it comes to infection control and ship sanitation. Silver lining if you could call it that.

I think this is spot on. My take is that Fain knows something the public doesn't and that is something to do with relaxing of some of the stipulations within the CSO as we move forward. Fain talks about 1000% better dialogue between the CDC and the cruise lines. That's code for the idiots at the CDC are starting to deal with real world data and what RCL (and others) have offered all along as sensible infection control and risk reduction measures to allow a re-start is being adopted within the CSO. I've argued that Celebrity has a better approach than RCL and that Fain should take a page from Luttoff-Perlo's play book .... everyone needs to be vaccinated to board. That's fine for Celebrity that has a much older passenger demographic (late 40s is the median age) and rarely has a lot of under 16s. It's not fine for RCL who I suspect is providing the CDC with rational input on the risk of the under 16 cohort of transmitting the virus as in creating a large outbreak on an RCL ship. RCL may know it's going to get a break on that from the CDC, something exactly like you are suggesting. I'd add that a good metric for the CDC to throw in with what you suggest is that the county (make sure you read that as COUNTY, not country as this metric should be regional) the cruise port is located within have a %positivity below 5%. If that criteria is met, un-vaxed, under 16s as well as everyone else can cruise after a negative PCR. I'd prefer that a second test after 72h be performed to catch leakers creating as close to a perfect bubble that is reasonably achievable. Side note, Broward Co., home of PEV, has a % positivity rate of under 3% and has been maintaining under 5% for weeks. To my knowledge, Ports of Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville and Canaveral are all in counties with circulating virus metrics below 5%. Your still dealing with a proportionally higher risk of a COVID outbreak aboard ship if you allow a mix of vaxed and un-vaxed passengers, introduce questions of who needs to mask and who doesn't and introduction of COVID after a cruise port is visited. Maybe Fain has a plan to deal with that. If he does, he's not telling us.

@CruiseGus, things have more recently changed since Matt posted that. I live in FL and have followed this pretty closely. Proponents of the ban site the envrionmental damage done to the FL keys by the cruise ship industry. Some of those claims are legit but, for the most part, environmentalists aren't able to show much solid data to support that claim. TBF, the initial ballot initiative passed by a 63% margin indicating residents there support the ban. I find it hard to believe that business owners love the idea of reduced traffic in their restaurants and stores. I did see one article that claimed cruise passengers don't spend much when in town. The article claimed cruise ship traffic accounted for just 7% of Key West's revenue. I find that hard to believe. Whatever. Proponents of the ban have accused Desantis of favoring a developer in Key West by muscling the legislation through to his desk as an amendment to a larger transportation bill that would over-rule the Key West ban because the developer contributed heavily to the Desantis gubernatorial campaign. Who knows. Like I said. Political hot potato.

Not sure I know the "real story" but ........ the voters in key west passed 3 popular ballot initiatives that effectively banned large cruise ships from porting at Key West by limiting the number of cruise passengers allowed to enter through the cruise port to 1300 people. Cruise ships with 1300 or less passengers are welcome according to the mayor who wants to make Key West a small cruise ship destination. Good luck with that. On April 24th, the FL Senate passed Bill 426, known as the "State Preemption of Seaport Regulations", in a 24 to 14 vote. That legislation never advanced to the FL House as the authors withdrew it after state ports objected to it's unintended consequences. and it died. Proponents of limiting the authority of ports to close them to legitimate commerce attached an amendment to a Transportation Bill that did recently pass and is currently on the Governor's desk ..... but it is a political hot potato with environmentalists making their usual claims and FL conservatives arguing they are baseless. To my knowledge he hasn't singed it yet. So, right now, large cruise ships can't go there. Stay tuned.

100% @icf75. The problem is the scourge of cruise ships sailing isn't going to go away in the post pandemic near term. Clearly your implied suggestion that the CDC needs to get real with it's CSO is needed. Maybe that is happening behind the scenes as Fain seems to imply. Would be nice if so.

Update on Celebrity Check in for my 7/9/21 8n, Greek Isles out of Athens....... if I attempt to check in on my PC from the main Celebrity web site, after you log-in, go to scheduled cruises, select the cruise you want to check in on > manage reservation > check in, it takes you to a page that says check in closed. Check back closer to your sail date. So, I went to the updated app I just installed on my android Samsung A51. After you log in (same as your usual web site log-in) it pulls up your next cruise automatically. At the action buttons at the bottom of the page, click check in. Follow the prompts to check in, voila'. I think they're pushing people to use the app. It's possible it may be the only way to check-in. I expect they will have a way for people not so tech savvy to do check in at the line and counter thing. The cool thing about the app is that you can scan passports (fills in all the entries automatically in the form or you can enter manually) and allows you to scan your photo. You can do everything to check in except complete your health form. Tells you that you'll get notified to fill this out at the app one day before your sail date. Don't know what it looks like. Hoping you can scan your CDC vaccine card. Edge class ships allow you to complete check-in on the app, show up at the terminal, go through whatever security is required, pass through a gate where your express pass is scanned (like boarding an aircraft) and go right to the ship and your cabin. None of this going to a counter, showing your Express Pass, showing your credit card and passport, having a picture taken, being handed a key, maybe allowed to board, maybe not and sometimes waiting an hour or more for your cabin to be ready. The cabin key is a card and will be inserted into your cabin door lock. If you have walk-on bags, no waiting until you're cleared to proceed to your cabin. You can go right to it and leave them in your room even if it's not ready to occupy yet, then proceed unencumbered to lunch - nice touch. Pretty techy and allows no contact boarding. The Fort Lauderdale cruise terminal was modified three years ago when Edge was introduced. It is set up for no contact boarding. We've done it twice pre pandemic and it is a breeze. Very cool. No telling if it will be that easy at Piraeus port in Athens. Hope so. The one thing not present pre-COVID that will be added for boarding in the pandemic circumstance is a face to face health screening some where in the terminal. You sign up for a time for this on the app. I suspect it is here that you will certify no current illness and have your vaccination card verified.

@smokeybandit, I take your point. I acknowledge the extremely low risk of un-vaxed under 16s of transmitting the virus but it is, nonetheless possible for this cohort to become infected and transmit the virus to other unvaccinated PAX. That's a risk Fain seems to be betting on the come line that (1) he will meet the 95% vaccinated requirement in a reduced capacity circumstance, e.g., for 3000 guests on a mega-ship normally accommodating 6000, you'll need to have less than 150 under 16s. (2) He won't have to deal with a scenario where kid # 151 has to be turned away. If this is the path he is actually going down, not only does he have the risk of even one or two infections happening on a ship but he has to deal with the eventuality that he'll get swamped with under 16s without a defined path (that we know of) of how is going to deal with that scenario. I think that's dumb compared with Celebrity's - albeit less likely to have that many kids aboard - approach. I suspect he knows more about where the CDC is actually going with the CSO than we know about because, he and the people around and advising him are not dumb.

Just to be clear, which I don't believe RCL is (Celebrity, IMO, clearer)....... RCL will be recommending but not requiring vaccinations. That means you have a mix of non-vax and vax passengers. The CDC guidance in that circumstance is questionable. If You want to read about the confusion the latest CDC guidance that vaccinated people don't need to mask, read here: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cdc-mask-guideline-question-answer-coronavirus-covid-pandemic I can see why RCL appears to be hedging on protocols and procedures and also why they are planning on following the provisions of the CSO .... .whatever that document will evolve to before RCL sails it's first revenue cruise. RCL want's cover and I don't blame them. Here's what one expert (from the article linked to above) has to say about the vax passengers: Do you see the kinds of problems Fain courts? If RCL actually goes through with recommending but not requiring vaccination to sail he appears to be choosing to go down a path where RCL will get each ship they plan to sail in July through the test sailing process. Do you see how Lutoff-Perlo at Celebrity has eliminated issues Fain is setting himself up to deal with by requiring all passengers to be vaccinated? - no test cruises; straight to revenue sailings. Smart woman, IMO. Fain should think about taking a page from her play book. On what appears to be Fain's approach, if EVERYONE gets a rapid PCR test during the boarding process, you're creating something of a bubble that then requires a second set of COVID tests in 72h to catch leakers. If someone pops positive, they get quarantined. You would also have nearly foolproof contact tracing (the App) and contacts of that positive also get quarantined. PCR tests after each port call or no port call where the level of circulating virus is high in that port? Fun....... I prefer Celebrity's approach.

This may be old news but check-in for Apex out of Athens late June - July -appears to be open (first time it has been since last time I checked 6d ago). It's difficult to use your phone but it can be done. You'll need to add a photo for each traveler per their guidelines. You can also book packages and shore excursions. My booking is 7/9/21, 8n, Greek isles. I was impressed with pricing of shore excursions..... rarely use the celebrity offerings preferring to arrange my own. Will use Celebrity offerings for safety and convenience. Greece has moderate levels of circulating virus at present - stable or downward trending. Vaccine distribution is slow. If you have the Celebrity app on your phone, uninstall it and reinstall updated version. Everything is functional except daily schedule and these come later. You'll need the app during the boarding process.

Go to another consolidator like vacations to go, Costco, delta skymiles cruises. Find and price the cruise you're getting this deal on. Group rates will be pretty consistent among legit consolidators. This will give you a sense of the prevailing discount on group rates. You also have to be careful on not just taxes and fees but also on cabin class. Everything has to match up when price shopping. Have a look here by clicking "here's some stuff....."too:

@ksenese ..... you're not alone. I missed the FCC only thing on the CWC program. Its very difficult to keep up with all of this. If I understand you correctly you want to "change" and rebook, not pay the final and get an FCC. Is that correct? You'll get hit with another change fee if you take that route. If you pay and take an FCC you'll be better off money wise but there may be other considerations for you, your schedule for example.

Right @TXcruzer, I overlooked that.

Agree with @smokeybandit ....... I think the CDC wanted live, unvaccinated bodies that were not crew members to simulate all kinds of shipboard activities aboard a ship sailing w/o a requirement for PAX to be vaccinated. The desired outcome was zero cases. After that and if you had one, how did each ship handle it. That was before vaccines. One thing the CDC backed off on and provided an option to restart was to require 98/95%. There's some other tweaks but basically the CDC is standing pat with the CSO. Since I view this whole thing from the perspective that the CSO is unlawful, it's hard for me to get worked up by the details of compliance ...... that didn't stop from submitting a request to be considered for a test sailing though. Shoot, I'll play along ?

Well, actually it's a lot different than washing hands and not touching your face. I think you know this because the airborne thing was mentioned up thread. Just want to make sure?

@ksenesedid you book a refunadale deposit fare? If so, make the final then cancel under Cruise with Confidence program. RCL is pretty quick with the refund. I've gotten refunds back from Celebrity in under 3w. If the deposit is not refundable or not under CWC, best bet is to plan to sail but be prepared for RCL to CNX. If they CNX, usual options pertain. If air is involved book that through RCL. I got airfare fully refunded in 2w. That's not going to happen if you book independently. Good luck.

I don't disagree with your implied position @JSB_Z51. The data so far demonstrates that unvaccinated children under 18 do not pose a significant health risk to vaccinated people. But the data that supports that view is not yet sufficiently robust to claim certainty. That's what virologists seek. They're not in the business of assessing the cost of a particular position. Again, first, this is what's been missing in assessing the value of a particular mitigation measure from the beginning. Is it lives saved? That's a hard one to argue against. Second, the need for certainty that virologists seek. I think all of us here would argue zero risk is unobtainable and unreasonable. Seeking for certainty in the data assumes zero risk that a hypothesis, in this case, kids don't transmit virus, is accurate. In statistics, there are ways of identifying degrees of probability. We're not clued into this and you can be sure data geeks know what the probability is. I've seen numbers below 3%. That means a 3% chance that if you go on a cruise with unvaccinated kids where one or more of them have COVID, your risk of getting it - just getting it, let alone getting seriously ill or dying - is 3%, or 97% chance that won't even happen. The risk of serious illness or death is infinitesimally small. So cruise lines look at this and evaluate the costs of the 3% chance that an unvaccinated kid causes an outbreak on a cruise and you have your answer to the question you ask. From a political POV, it would be catastrophic. The visuals would be very bad for business. Here, the lines are being as risk averse in this analysis as the CDC is too many of thiers. But this is the era we are living in where being reasonable about COVID isn't something that we see a lot of.