LizzyBee23

It's a sad but deserved criticism of the US right now. We still have people who doubt the severity of what is going on, or question the reality before them. It's one of the ultimate injustices that we, as a country with all of the resources in the world to mitigate the spread within our borders but who lacked the political will and communal commitment to do so, will probably have early access to a vaccine while the countries that we exported cases to (who have a fraction of what we have in terms of medical resources) will have to deal with the mess that we hand delivered to them.

I'm not going to pretend to know the intricacies involved in clinical trials, but as a scientist I know the importance of getting good data and using strong analytical techniques to draw conclusions from it. The reason so many of us feel like we have whiplash regarding advice we've been given about the virus is because we're discovering new things nearly every day. You can see that born out in the falling mortality rate as doctors continue to zero in on a standard of care that works. The process may seem slow, but it is complex and despite all the shortcomings here in the States, history will probably judge the world's response to this as relatively rapid (and hopefully it gets us to lay the groundwork for future, faster response efforts).

And how many home depot customers have to be airlifted back to hospitals from locations unknown?

Completely disagree with you about the seriousness of the disease and what we should be doing in the short term, but I agree that eventually we will all probably get it and soon we will just assume the risk as we rush back to normalcy. I'd just like to share that there are over 600 compounds under investigation for treating COVID (including 255 clinical compounds, nearly 100 of which are in Phase III or IV), and the FDA has expedited much of the approval process for starting trials (using the Coronavirus Treatment Acceleration Program). All of that to say, most people who could possibly help us find a treatment or a cure are doing so, and there are lots of good reasons to wait a few more months to give them some time to do so. (The link is at www.bio.org if you want to see the status of the trials... Updates every Monday and tracks vaccine development as well.)

We were set to go in August, but ended up cancelling on our fully refundable reservation before all of this got crazy back in March (you really could see the writing on the wall). So happy to reschedule for the end of April! Got the same itinerary (double dip at CocoCay), and while I doubt we'll see a repeat of the two-day pass for $69 in the cruise planner, we did get a good price for our drink package at $53. Oh, and our room is bigger (got the spacious, panoramic oceanview this time) and we are oh-so excited to have something to look forward to again. Hooray!

Could not agree more. At least in the US, we were subjected to "the flu kills more people!" headlines for more than 2 weeks after it became abundantly clear this was something else entirely. The US media carried on with that narrative well after Wuhan was quarantined, and only really started to change their tune after the spread in Europe became impossible to characterize any other way.

Not going to lie, when I saw they cancelled the cruises in Asia, and suspect they'll end up doing the same to the Mediterranean I wondered if they'd end up loading up Coco Cay to the gills. Even if we keep the August cruise, it might make for an interesting double Perfect Day!

There's less reason to doubt the numbers out of Italy or SK, and those aren't exactly heartening. California has been monitoring many of those cases for weeks now (since the restrictions on travel from China were made). States all across the US have been doing the same. If you're wondering why they haven't been tested, it's because of a bottleneck at the CDC (make of that what you will). The CDC announced earlier this week they'd have the testing issues sorted out, so personally I'd expect all of this to get a lot worse before it gets better. You call it hysteria, but the fact is this is far deadlier than anything we've encountered as a culture in recent history. If you have some rosy expectation that it will all blow over without a massive undertaking to either restrict or restructure our behaviors (hopefully just in the short term), I'd adjust it.

Let me rephrase: we're parents of young children. We're not particularly young, which I feel at a physical level most mornings, haha.

Ha! I'm not opposed to it either. We're young parents though, so honestly any vacation where we can get a few days to ourselves sounds pretty heavenly.

That is internal guidance from my employer, who has currently restricted all international travel (and we're in an industry where international travel is practically essential). The CDC itself has said to prepare for a pandemic, and the WHO has said to maintain social distancing.

Europe and the American West Coast would like a word. I understand wanting to keep travel plans in tact, I really do. We will be beyond disappointed if we get into a situation where we have to cancel our plans for later this summer... especially since this was meant to be the debut of us as a family (our last vacation was our honeymoon, 4 years ago. Now there are literally twice as many of us! ?). However, acting like this is business as usual (or even comparable to SARS when it took less than a month to blow through the SARS threshold) is irrational all on its own. We should all be practicing extra caution, and unfortunately that means avoiding large gatherings... How compatible is guidance like that with cruising?

Saying this is just plain misinformation at this point. The flu is not deadlier. What we know about COVID-19 suggests it's at least 10-20x deadlier than this year's flu.

Have fun on your cruise to nowhere. The point is that people are reacting (and I believe its within the realm of rational responses), and ships aren't making it to port. I suppose if you're okay with 7 days at sea, cruising could still be for you.

I hope it works out. We're just under 6 months out from our cruise (in the Caribbean), but the situation is so fluid we may find ourselves in your shoes in a few months time.

Can we stop saying this now?

Italy incoming... Pretty sure that meets the criteria for a pandemic. Tomorrow will be interesting. Hoping beyond home we'll be able to keep our Mariner reservations in August. Someone sell me a miracle.

Probably because I'm such an RC noob, but when I saw "guacamole class" I thought you were making a joke about some new perk or cabin classification. Either way, as a fellow guacamole lover, glad I read this topic... Even if it doesn't end with an on-demand guac bar in my cabin.

Those are called "clinical" cases, and as an aside since it was mentioned previously in this board, recommending the inclusion of these cases was one of the first things the WHO did when they arrived in China in an official capacity yesterday.

The number of new infections hasn't dropped persay, it's just no longer exponential (that is to say the rate of the rate of change (or second derivative) is the lowest yet). Still good news, but just want to clarify. Also, the CDC has not yet been invited to review the situation in China, and the WHO is still negotiating the terms of performing it's investigation with China. Here's a news feed that gets regular updates: https://www.ft.com/content/278e81f8-c74e-3206-ac2f-f27e1245ff0b This one caught my eye this morning:

My heart is with everyone aboard the ship... The news stories are heartbreaking (lots of fear onboard, particularly among the crew per reporting). It's a lose-lose situation for everyone.

Thanks for the welcome! Clearly we disagree on the level of risk we're comfortable with, and I obviously take umbrage at the idea that exercising caution in an unknown situation is "hysterical" or means I'm living in fear. The situation is so fluid right now there's no way to know what the next few weeks will look like... It's also part of the reason statistics are largely useless and cannot be extrapolated outside of areas where there are already outbreaks (Wuhan, China as a whole, or the Diamond Princess... none of which are particularly encouraging). That being said, looking at the situation as it exists today and deciding to keep your plans is within the range of rational decisions. You're right to assert that the risk given what we know is relatively low. I don't like the uncertainty around it, so if I were in your shoes I'm not certain I'd make the same one. My children are also much younger, and we're cruising with my father (who has recently joined the ranks of seniorhood!). That being said, try avoid those infernal legos!

I bet you're right on that one, especially with the recent jump in cases in the UK. Thank you for everything you do, and I hope you get a chance to unwind on your upcoming vacation!

Well, not to burst your bubble, but that story is from the end of January and since then the situation has changed considerably. Someone I spoke with used a metaphor regarding this comparison to the flu by the media that I thought was exceedingly poignant, so I'll repeat it here: "Comparing COVID to the flu is like saying that more people are killed every year in the US by cows rather than by sharks. Technically true, but irrelevant when I'm letting you know that a breed of shark is developing the ability to walk on land". Current estimates have the fatality rate of COVID optimistically near 1% (already taking into consideration things like number of infections in China is probably severely under-reported, etc as the raw numbers out of China suggest at least double that number if not 10x). If it is truly at 1%, that makes COVID 5x deadlier than the flu, and for me means saying goodbye to 3 of my coworkers if the infection gets a foot hold in my office building. You also mentioned you'd take your chances on a ship with 170 confirmed infections (the Diamond Princess). The raw number is not scary... The fact that the number jumped from single digits to 170 in the span of a week is. The fact that a Japanese health worker who was presumably taking just about every precaution within reason caught the virus while coming on board to care for the passengers is. Unfortunately for the people on board, but fortunately for the rest of us, the Diamond Princess is a near perfect opportunity to study the spread of COVID and will give us a better idea of some of how this will behave. As someone who has two cruises scheduled later in the year, I'm thankful I'm not within the 90 day window right now. It's foolish to advise against cancellation as though everything is fine, just as it's foolish to postulate that this is the end of cruising as we know it in the short-term. We'll know more soon, but if I lived with someone with complicating factors (very young kids, seniors, respiratory problems, or immunosupressed) I would absolutely be cancelling a cruise scheduled to depart within the next week or two.

Us too!! 8/10 sailing. It will be our first cruise with our little ones and a bunch of extended family... We're in a loooooong row of 6V's and opted for two rooms instead of a quad occupancy so we'd have two bathrooms (also, GS's or really any S's are outside of our price range by several miles). Anyway, can't wait!