Things are really getting serious now....

[deep1 388]

43 minutes ago, FManke said:

Hard to believe that a politician would be for or opposed to something they have not fully read and understand. 

He really wasn't taking a side. He got into this wordy way  of saying "There is a CSO and attached statement  from the CDC ". Clear he had not read or had a synopsis forwarded to him. He seemed to think this was the quick fix we want, not the spinning wheels we have seen since October... 

[JeffB 734]

Just one of the problems the cruise lines are dealing with in getting sailings restarted from US ports is the wrongheaded focus on COVID case numbers as an indicator of pandemic status by public health officials, the CDC being the worst offender because they know better. This gets augmented by the press as they love a crisis. Then the public mood and by extension, public health policy is shaped.

Because of the distorted view of where we really are with controlling the transmission of SARS2 and the disease burden of COVID it's impossible to define a path forward to post-pandemic normalcy. For us cruise fanatics, we see this glaring problem reflected in the NSO, the CSO and the lack of a clear path forward to the resumption of cruising from US ports. 

There are better metrics than COVID case numbers to measure the impact of the disease. Not only that but the impact of COVID is highly regional. The disease burden in MI is different than it is Kansas yet the CDC uses one figure - new case numbers - applied nationally to cast every state in the same dire situation. 

I think Desantis, among other governors of similar persuasion, mostly has the right idea. I'd look to the UK's Boris Johnson though who has pursued an aggressive and prioritized vaccination strategy, similar to Desantis, et. al., but has combined this with highly targeted restrictions on citizen mobility based on a testing strategy that is unique in the world. The UK is doing more testing, particularly genomic testing, to guide the targeting of regional hot spots for mitigation measures. That is smart. They also have a robust national contact tracking and tracing program. The results, so far, are striking. We'll see if it continues.

Sadly, we are stuck with the Biden administration's CDC. I don't see them changing their messaging or outlining a pathway back to a post-pandemic normalcy. Sticking with the CSO, it appears, is reflective of that lack of COVID insight and vision so badly needed here in the US. While there is talk of more testing and the addition of the genomic type, I don't see guidelines from the federal level that trickle down to well designed public health programs at the state level. Ostensibly, that could help guide emerging and improved public health policy on a state by state basis that is more focused and targeted. I just don't see it happening and I don't think vaccines, alone, are going to sufficiently change new case numbers enough to change the public mood and by extension, public health policy. Sadly.

The pending law suit by the state of FL might have an impact if only in the context of our interests in a return to cruising. Despite how good I think the plaintiff's arguments are,  I still think it's a long shot. What we need is a wholesale change in how leading experts from the CDC view the impact of SARS2 going forward while outlining a responsible return to a post pandemic normalcy. If FL wins the case and gets an injunction, that could move the CDC to re-evaluate more than just their approach to the cruise industry. Mid to long term, that's what we need.           

 

[deep1 388]

1 hour ago, twangster said:

Can you imagine what the team handling Michael Bayley's inbox has had to deal with because of the pandemic? 

His load has to be brutal... Couldn't imagine... Crews, Passengers, Lenders, Vendors, Shareholders all on his back... 

[Dad2Cue 206]

57 minutes ago, JeffB said:

If FL wins the case and gets an injunction, that could move the CDC to re-evaluate more than just their approach to the cruise industry. Mid to long term, that's what we need.

So then we wind up with lawyers deciding public health policy.  It isn't that I think that the public health experts have done such a great job.  

I just know that I'm vaccinated.  That seems to be the present criteria for doing more things and getting back to some semblance of normal.  My next booked cruise is in October 2021.  I have a backlog of 5 more cruises in 2022.   I have a significant financial stake in going on those cruises. 

I'm willing to do almost anything to protect my financial interests ---wear a mask, forego my 2021 cruise... anything within reason.  Everything seems so  unreasonable.  If this stretches into 2022 then maybe I will need a lawyer.  But nothing in the legal realm proceeds quickly and will likely cost more than my investment in cruises.  

Maybe just waiting is my only reasonable option.

[JeffB 734]

8 minutes ago, Dad2Cue said:

So then we wind up with lawyers deciding public health policy.

Well, yes, but only directly in one small segment of activities in the US impacted by the CDC's "the boogey man is coming" messaging.

The SARS2 pandemic is a problem. No denying it. But I remain shocked that the word's governments response to it, after a year of dealing with it, fails to recognize that it is a problem that has to be dealt with by means other than scaring people and having those governments encourage regional entities (the states and counties) to issue more and more restrictions to mobility and/or restrictions to business activities.

One thing I believe is that the impact of the COVID is far less than we are being led to believe it is, that, given the advancements in COVID treatments and the effectiveness of reasonable mitigation measures make it so ..... and I've never believed this whole thing is a hoax. It's real.

It's a real problem but it is one that can be overcome with a combination of vaccines, through increased testing, effective identification and targeting of regional outbreaks for specific and time limited mitigation measures and an effort to restore confidence in US public health policy making entities, namely the CDC. That last one is important because I believe what's happening in the US now - the increased violence and discontent - is largely a result of this "boogey man is coming" messaging emanating from the CDC, augmented by the press that loves a crisis. Instead of that, I'm advocating for a change in tone from one of worry to one of confidence that the virus can be brought to heel. Start with defining a path forward to the resumption of a reasonable post-pandemic normalcy and that includes revisions of the CDC's CSO.        

[ChessE4 754]

8 hours ago, UNCFanatik said:

CDC recommendations change all the time and are often times not based in science but politics. 6 ft changed to 3ft for social distancing in schools. CDC now saying plexiglass dividers are not needed in schools. Wearing masks outside where multiple studies have now shown that there is virtually ZERO chance if acquiring COVID outdoors. Kids required to wear mask while playing outdoors is anti-science. Florida has the right to determine their own Covid protocols and looking at Florida compared to Michigan,NY and NJ where Covid protocols are stricter, they are doing better. I think States like Texas and Florida have shown the CDC that they are ready to open their cruise ports. Sorry, I will follow the data rather than the highly politicized CDC whose director has to walk back her proclamations on a regular basis

I was referring to the article this week about Florida being one of five states with the highest rate of new infections.  I don't think that supports efforts to begin cruising.  I love Florida, I have a brother in Florida, I am booked to cruise from Florida.  But the data could be better...and we need to do a better job in my state, too.  Despite what you have stated, Florida and several other states have made several missteps that have delayed the restart of cruising.  I am glad vaccinations are going up everywhere, as that is making us all safer.

[UNCFanatik 159]

PCR tests have always been a problem for case counts because the sensitivity of the tests can be ramped up to indicate false positives. 
 

I agree with @JeffB case counts are always a poor metric. Hospitalizations are what to pay more attention to. Especially with the amount of a symptomatic cases. People either don’t know or tend to forget that in 2010 there were an estimated 60.8 million cases in the US of H1N1. 

As long as the government has the attitude of “let no crisis go to waste” and can use the pandemic to pass more and more spending bills, there is an incentive to keep panic among the populace by talking about mutations and variants which actually is counterproductive to get more people vaccinated.

with cruising, it’s hard to get politicians to truly see the economic damage of keeping the cruise industry shutdown that are not from states that are not affected by it.

sadly it seems the time of the government treating the general populace as responsible citizens who are capable of doing their own risk mitigation is passing. The Nanny state now seems to have the attitude that is their job to protect us from ourselves.
 

 

[smokeybandit 719]

Hospitalizations are also tough because only a few states separate out those hospitalized with covid (ie, tested positive during their gall bladder surgery prep) from those who went to the hospital because of their covid.

[deep1 388]

1 hour ago, ChessE4 said:

I was referring to the article this week about Florida being one of five states with the highest rate of new infections.  I don't think that supports efforts to begin cruising.  I love Florida, I have a brother in Florida, I am booked to cruise from Florida.  But the data could be better...and we need to do a better job in my state, too.  Despite what you have stated, Florida and several other states have made several missteps that have delayed the restart of cruising.  I am glad vaccinations are going up everywhere, as that is making us all safer.

Florida's per capita  rate is low.  We rank 28th in per capita cases and deaths both. Roughly half to two-thirds the death rate in New Jersey again PER CAPITA. The total count is high due to our population  being third largest in the country...

 

 

[stevendom57 179]

10 hours ago, FManke said:

Hard to believe that a politician would be for or opposed to something they have not fully read and understand. 

You forgot the </sarc> tag

[jticarruthers 1,201]

14 hours ago, ChessE4 said:

I was referring to the article this week about Florida being one of five states with the highest rate of new infections.  I don't think that supports efforts to begin cruising.  I love Florida, I have a brother in Florida, I am booked to cruise from Florida.  But the data could be better...and we need to do a better job in my state, too.  Despite what you have stated, Florida and several other states have made several missteps that have delayed the restart of cruising.  I am glad vaccinations are going up everywhere, as that is making us all safer.

if you read the whole article that the headline was based off of it was clear that Florida was added into the top 5 just to make the point that Florida is marginally up and Florida must always be held out to be a problem because it fits the narrative.

[JeffB 734]

I mentioned yesterday that the impact of COVID is likely less than we are led to believe it is. A lot of this has to do with how public health officials report COVD data and then how the press presents it to us.

Giving us case numbers out of context is misleading. For example, on 3/9, FL reported 5007 new cases. A month later, on 4/9, 6817. That's a 36% increase in new cases yet the percent positivity over that same period went up only 1%. When you test more, more new cases are identified...... testing on 3/9 = 175/100K. Testing on 4/9 = 282/100K. That's a 37% increase in daily testing producing an expected 36% rise in new cases. 

On 3/9, FL had 3419 patients hospitalized with a COVID diagnosis. On 4/9, 3016.

But this is the kicker - deaths:

Need I say more? Florida is fine.

[FManke 2,717]

11 hours ago, stevendom57 said:

You forgot the </sarc> tag

I did indeed

[roundabout 6]

4 hours ago, JeffB said:

But this is the kicker - deaths:

Need I say more? Florida is fine.

And the other kicker is that it takes weeks for deaths to make it to the reports

That said, I personally am all for vaccinated reduced capacity cruises.  Since kids are going back to school, with 3 ft or less between them - let them cruise with a negative PCR test, as well.

[smokeybandit 719]

My son's elementary school has been full in person since last August, and kids 10 and under don't have to wear masks with no effort to socially distance other than keeping each class in its own cohort (though kids of the same grade can recently all mingle at outdoor recess)

 

We've had zero in school transmission.

[Snotarni 148]

I sent a note to my "fine" State elected officials about cruising....   here's the response I got...

 Thank you for contacting me regarding The American Rescue Plan of 2021.  I was pleased to vote in favor of this legislation, which was signed into law by President Biden on March 11, 2021...  

and a bunch more blather about the his support for the bill.  I guess there's no "quick response email" for my Cruising email info OR, his interns/staff were out that day...  .  (I actually didn't expect any response, but at least it could've been a relevant form letter! )  Ah Congress...

[smokeybandit 719]

I only got generic canned responses. Which I wasn't really expecting anything tailored towards the CSO

[cruisellama 1,017]

On 4/9/2021 at 11:29 AM, dodgestang said:

When Royal sends you emails asking you to fill out petitions to US senators and representatives to get the cruise industry restarted.

I did my part.