JeffB

Twangster, I think you're right from a political standpoint but probably not from a factual and practical one. The infection of President Trump with SARS-CoV-2 does not disprove the efficacy of testing. Not even close. Testing is absolutely fundamental, as a layered measure, for virus control and thinking it's not is foolhardy and counterproductive. I don't think you were implying this. Others who have just posted were. From the beginning, the WH has been dismissive of the virus. Cruise lines? No - they have very seriously addressed every aspect of its impact and probably more completely than any organization that features congregate settings. As a reflection of that dismissiveness, masks were rarely worn in side or around the WH. I expect cruise lines to enforce masking rules while aboard ship and in public areas, unlike the WH. Most importantly the WH relied on the Abbot product known as ID-NOW that was released with great promise in March. We saw the device in one of Trump's press conferences when he bragged about it. As early as April, labs using the device were reporting high false negative rates necessitating confirmatory RT-PCR, Molecular tests to rule COVID in or out. Abbot claims that inappropriate sampling and testing too soon after infection was the problem, not the device itself. The ID-NOW product works but (it detects antibodies), the company says, only 7d after becoming infected. That's a lot of time for the purpose the WH was using it or for the purposes the cruise lines would test. As far as I know, this Abbot ID-NOW device continued to be used by the WH, despite it's limitations, to insure the president did not come in contact with COVID positive people. I don't know what the testing regimen was for staff in terms of frequency. I do know that everyone visiting the president is tested before seeing him in person and I assume they used the Abbot Labs ID-NOW device. I also know that not everyone was tested that attended Judge Barrett's nominating events and social gatherings in DC. It was hit or miss, typical of the attitude the WH routinely displayed with Trump leading the way with his dismissiveness. One simply cannot use the WH's expereince with infections of key support staff or super-spreader events associated with the Barrett nomination in DC and generalize it to all congregate events, including cruising. There's dozens of manufacturers producing FDA approved COVID testing products. They utilize various testing mechanisms to do that. The newest, with sensitivity and specificity for detecting COVID having accuracy > 95%, are the rapid antigen tests. Abbot Labs has one called BINAX-NOW. It detects antigens, or the components of SARS-CoV-2, not the antibodies to it. There's no time delays. If you become infected with the virus BINAX-NOW (and other similar products) will detect it. It's also easy to use and the testing device is packaged in a cassette about the size of a credit card. If you've ever been tested for Influenza A/B, you've seen on e of these. It's this type of test that I presume the cruise lines would use for passengers and onboard surveillance, possibly other RT/PCR products for crew. Each type of testing device has it's own unique capabilities. The point here is that COVID testing is complex. Details are important. Hot-takes are usually wrong.

Trump becoming infected with the virus has mucked up what I believe was a White House plan, w/Pence in the lead, to allow cruise lines to begin to prepare for a November 1st restart. That restart to be on the limited basis we are all familiar with. Before that, I thought there was a very good chance we'd have a reduced number of sailings in November with those gradually expanding in December. Now chances of that look slim ...... unless the WH reconvenes the meeting with cruise execs this coming week. A meeting might foreshadow a restart; the lack of a meeting probably means doom. The resumption of cruising in Europe and Asia, pressures resulting from the sheer economics of the Caribbean travel industry to re-open Caribbean ports, are positives. That ports are already open in Europe and might open in the Caribbean would allow the major cruise lines that have ships in warm-storage in adjacent waters there an opportunity to assemble crew. From there they could conduct training and proof-of-concept trial runs with employees acting as passengers. Those could occur before repositioning ships in European and Caribbean waters to North American ports once they are opened. Keep in mind, we're talking about only a very few ships actually doing something like this as the logistics of such a plan are complex. It could take months to get even one-half of the global fleet of cruise ships operational. As well, the complexity of opening ports and anchorages and then deconflicting itineraries to lessen crowding in those places to be visited is considerable. The timing though is becoming critical and as the days in October pass by, hope for a North American restart in November will fade.

The sharing of viewpoints here, in a highly emotionally charged circumstance re COVID/Cruising has been genuinely civil and informative. I've done a bit of sleuthing today. My first resource was the CDC's web page dealing with COVID and cruise lines. There's a lot of information here if you' re interested in learning about the protocols the CDC has imposed on cruise ships operating in US waters or disembarking crew members over the last 4-5 month. The CDC developed a color system to designate the COVID status of only those cruise ships operating in US waters. There only 30, 3 have active COVID case(s), all of them are RCCL ships (Adventure, Mariner and Serenade). RCCL or Celebrity ships make up 22 of the total of 30 ships sailing in US waters and subject to the CDC imposed color coding system for crew management. The first link is to the CDC's web page that explains the No-Sail-Order and there is a link to the .pdf file that provides justification for the extension of it past 30 September, 2020 . You can be your own judge whether the CDC makes it's case to continue to shutter cruise line operation out of US ports for the benefit of the public's health or not. You'll know I think it is laughable, discriminatory and relies on data points that are 6 months old. It's based on what we knew about the virus 6m ago and utterly fails to recognize the advances in SARS-CoV-2 knowledge, how to best control its spread and most importantly it is completely silent on the Safe-To-Sail commission's report and input to the CDC. Shameful. The second link is to the CDC's Cruise Ship Crew Management protocols and the color coding system. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/crew-disembarkations-commercial-travel.html My next resource was the Cruise Industry News web page where an article appears that speculates on the ships that will start cruising in November. It's interesting to see which ships and itineraries this source sees as likely candidates to be sailing with PAX first. https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23584-here-are-the-first-cruises-set-to-sail-in-november.html I was interested in finding out how likely it was that a cruise I'm booked on in December - Celebrity Infinity, 5n, Miami, Key West, Cozumel, Miami sailing the 28th - was in a position to somehow resume cruising in November. The resource I used was CruiseMapper. This is a great resource with cleanly laid out web pages that provide a lot of information. From it I learned that Infinity is currently sailing in the Aegean Sea enroute to Piraeus and is then scheduled to reposition from Lisbon to Miami on November 6th as a scheduled 14n Transatlantic cruise with passengers. After that it is scheduled to do rotating 4n and 5n cruises in the Caribbean, Bahamas and Mexico starting on November 30th. So, if everything false into place - a big if - the cruise I'm booked on will sail. I could see Piraeus being the point at which a controlled embarkation of a full crew compliment could take place in a 3-4w time frame allowing for appropriate testing and quarantining to form the semi-bubble we've been talking about. Then, the ship's senior staff could conduct a weeks worth of training in the new health and safety protocols. From there, perhaps trial runs with crew and employees as proof of concept sailings. The timing works and allows for Celebrity in this case to implement and test the protocols contained in the Safe-To-Sail commission's report. If you have cruises booked in November or December of 2020, you can sleuth your way through the possibilities to see if what needs to be done, like I did with Infinity, is doable on your ship. Have fun. It was great therapy for me on a day filled with bad news. https://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/Celebrity-Infinity-658#:~:text=Celebrity Infinity current location is,en route to VALLETTA MALTA.

My two points stand: (1) The media has created an inaccurate characterization of Governor Desantis' announcement to move FL to Phase III and to prohibit citing or fining people or businesses that don't comply with lawfully established mitigation measures. That inaccurate media characterization is one that paints Desantis as irresponsible .... not the first time the media has done that and it won't be the last. My view is that Desantis is not only acting responsibly but also making it clear state and local governments in FL shall not operate as police states dictating behavior and meeting out punishment for those that don't behave. Freedoms granted require personal responsibility. I favor rejection of the nanny state, less litigation and more citizens taking responsibility for themselves and their actions. YMMV. (2) With appropriate targeted mitigation measures and protocols SARS-CoV-2 spread can be controlled without the severe restrictions to social and economic activity that have proven to be ineffective in producing significant public health benefits. I provided many examples of countries and organizations doing just that while others take more draconian, widely applied measures that are harmful. YMMV. BTW, after Florida's weekend of allegedly unmasked revelry without appropriate distancing in bars and clubs unleashed by Governor Desantis' irresponsible actions, FL's positivity rate as of today's numbers continues to decline, remaining below 5%, along with every other meaningful measure of disease burden in FL. Employment in the hard hit restaurant and entertainment sector continues to improve and unemployment claims continue to drop. But, yeah, let's shut everything down.

?????? I would think you'd understand that is part of the plan to play football safely. There are other examples besides that particular college game where a contest has been cancelled. MLB and the NFL are examples and both of those organizations have partial, not complete bubbling protocols. It's just not practical to completely bubble but you can reduce risks to the players, coaches and staffs with layered approaches that do contain some aspects of a complete bubble. The cruise industry has NEVER said we can eliminate all risks of a passenger or crew member or baggage porter or terminal personnel from getting infected completely but we can reduce that risk significantly and in the event one of those people does become infected, we can identify them, isolate them and contract trace in effective ways.

The aspect of passengers being less than forthcoming about exposure was addressed in the Commission's report. They acknowledged it and offered that "layering" of mitigation measures was sufficient to reduce exposure risk once on board. That is pretty much what organizations creating "bubbles" have done. Layered mitigation measures. Zero risk of infections is unobtainable and to think that it can be before resuming any activity flys in the face of logic and reason. College Football is a prime example. Logic and reason prevailed in the SEC, ACC and Big12 while idiocy prevailed in the BIG10 and PAC10. Logic and reason prevailed, both conferences announced they would compete on the football field after a civil suit was filed against the BIG10 asking them to show why they had cancelled the fall season. They caved becasue their position was not defensible. With enough pressure, enough voices, enough logical thinking, cruising will resume and ports will open.

Correct ........ multiple organizations are managing to do that albeit on a smaller scale (NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and others). It's doable. Testing, isolating and tracing contacts are key and, despite doubts, based only on speculation, the cruise industry, based on facts, is willing to try and it has a very well defined plan to do so. I hope everyone here has either read the entire Safe-To-Sail Commission's report or at least seen the executive summary. The protocols that are being planned and will be tested are very good. MSC submitted a similar plan to the Italian Government, received clearance to resume operations out of Italian ports and so far, fingers crossed, things have gone well involving 7d itineraries with several port calls.

I live in Fort Lauderdale. Let's be clear here. Desantis has never said that masks are not required. Nor has he said, "Florida is being opened." Desantis from the beginning, while formulating and promulgating guidance for FL by phases, has said the imposition of mitigation measures, including masks, is at the discretion of local county and city officials and should be based on local data. How measures implemented are enforced is also a local decision. All of the three counties that make up what is known as S. FL - Palm Beach, Miami Dade and Broward (home of Port Everglades) counties have distancing, masking and sanitation mitigation measures in place and consistent with CDC and state guidelines for them. All of them are being enforced either with citations, fines or both. What Desantis did last Friday was announce the state is "moving to Phase III" - a precisely defined phase that the state can move to when certain gating criteria are met. The statewide percent positive rate has been at or below 5% for 14 consecutive dates. Even the Tri-County region of S. FL has had positivity rates below 5% although Miami-Dade popped above it for the last 7d rolling average (6%). He also ordered that counties and cities can no longer cite with a criminal charge or fine businesses or individuals who don't follow a standing mitigation measure emergency order. Miami-Dade has announced that it will continue to do so and is working with the Governor's office to allow them to do it based on the perceived public health risks in that county- The Miami-Dade County Mayor has to submit what objectifiable Public Health benefit is being derived from that policy and what are the economic costs to businesses of restricting their operations, citing and fining. IOW an appropriate calculation of Risk/Cost/Benefit. For now, Broward County and Fort Lauderdale are safe places to be. Residents are, for the most part, masking, distancing and acting responsibly. The vulnerable are being protected and people in that group are taking the virus seriously by avoiding unnecessary exposures. So are businesses who have made it clear that they aren't just flinging their doors open to party goers as if COVID-19 never existed. That's what the press wants you to think and it appears, given your post, that they are succeeding.

Ultimately, it will be the national and local governments and the ports themselves if they have that authority where the ports of call are located that will decide. As the cruise industry expanded over the last decade, who got access to the anchorages and berths seemed to sort itself out. This won't be any different. I am not familiar with a coordinating entity for something novel like this but there has been remarkable cooperation, from my perspective, between the majors regarding ship deployments and itineraries as the industry expanded. I do believe CLIA serves as a platform for the parties to get together. That may or may not be used but it's there.

Yes ...... businesses take risks. This is one I am almost certain that the majors, RCCL, Carnival and NCL, will take. A re-start of the cruise industry operations has more than bottom line considerations. It's the visuals. Liberal governments, and in my limited knowledge of those in the Caribbean basin, they are - could be problematic but tourism and the money those governments get from it is a powerful motivator to allow a controlled return of cruise ships to their ports. The travel industry is their economy and the primary source of income for their treasuries. Certainly the cruise industry is working with governments globally to assure them they can manage the virus if they are allowed to visit their ports. They have the facts and the plans behind them to do that safely. What does the WHO and the CDC have? Muddled data and vague fears. Despite the intense negativity surrounding the pandemic by the media, the facts are starting to get ahead of all that. What has happened, continues to happen but is now being questioned by decision makers at the federal and state levels is the failure to contextualize key data points like deaths and new case numbers. I've been down the list of failures by the media to do that. I'll repeat them again if anyone is interested and that is becasue that is where most people get their information about the virus. But the bottom line is that mass shutdowns involving personal mobility and economic activity are counterproductive and fail to deliver promised public health benefits, such benefits, for example, that the CDC and the WHO vaguely and often confusingly talk about. What the Feds should be doing is focusing on the US's capacity to test and trace using the technology to do that in a timely way. That capability has always been there and is even more sophisticated and available now than it was in March. Meaninglessly posturing with additional lock-downs, in this case continuing to lock-down the cruise industry, as a means of demonstrating they are doing something is shamefully counterproductive. There are meaningful and productive ways to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 that don't involve shutting things down. Examples abound - South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Sweden throughout the Pandemic and the best example now is Italy. Governments that choose to use a sledge hammer instead of a scalpel to reduce the spread of the virus are doing enormous damage to their social fabrics and economies. Citizens are starting to see that and governments are waking up to reality. I suspect those in the Caribbean will face reality as well.

Sure ....... one step at a time. First priority is to get cruise ships operating out of US ports. Once that gets underway, the rest will fall in place. Right now there are the private islands and ports in Mexico - who will undoubtedly welcome cruise ships return if not on a limited and controlled basis. What we know of RCCL's plans right now is that that they will have proof of concept sailings before PAX will embark. Get FL's ports open is priority number 1 and I think t's going to happen after October 30th. I have a 5d Celebrity Infinity Cruise booked that is scheduled to leave Miami on December 28th with stops in Key West and Cozumel. I feel confident this will be one of the early cruises and itineraries to get green lighted.

Correct ....... FL Senators Scott and Rubio introduced this legislation to create a Maritime Commission with the legal authority to decide how cruise ships will operate in US ports and waters. Right now we have CLIA that is an advisory entity and the US Coast Guard that regulates ship operations but such regulations are primarily engineering and safety related. The new Commission would take up the role of both CLIA and the US Coast Guard developing and publishing much more comprehensive operating protocols and regulations enforceable under US law and intended to provide a thorough and fair review of violations or operating dangers. That would preclude the capriciousness of having the CDC precipitate the shut down in the us of the entire cruise industry.

Scrumps, well, decisions relating to the pandemic response in the US is "political" to some degree. With respect to mitigation measures, in thie case the No-Sail-Order, it is more of a legal argument. You have the abridgment of personal freedoms v. the imposition of rules and regulation in the national interest, in this case public health. The Circuit Courts have, as far as I know, ruled against litigants who appear before them arguing that local restrictive measures such as mandating masks is unconstitutional. Under the pandemic circumstances the courts have ruled it is not. End of argument there. Extending or letting the No-Sail-Order expire is a matter involving the question of whether or not the US Government has the authority to curtail an activity that is potentially hazardous, e.g., the operation of cruise ships from US ports, in a pandemic. I think it does and, if this authority were challenged in the courts, the litigants challenging it would likely lose. There are no politics involved here at all. Period. Let's break this down further. The CDC, a branch of the Department of Health and Human Services, is subordinate to the Executive Branch. The CDC recommends and the Executive branch decides. At the time of the issuance of the No-Sail-Order, The Department of Homeland Security under the authority of the Executive closed US ports to cruise ship in March. It was a lawful order, within DHS's authority to issue. Lots of water under the bridge since then. Has the CDC objectively demonstrated that cruise ship operations threatens public health in the US? No, they said it COULD. Looked at in total, the cruise industries contribution to global COVID-19 before the industry was shut down was minuscule. The visuals were condemnatory; the facts are anything but. Not only that, the cruise industry has developed a comprehensive Safe-To-Sail Plan addressing every possible public health concern the CDC could have about cruise ship operations and submitted it to them. Going beyond that, they have addressed every issue involving any burden on a US port facility and the city within which that port is located should a cruise ship need to disembark passengers or crew infected with SARS-CoV-2 In the face of a weak case for endangering the public health or burdening cruise port facilities offered by the CDC and based on it might or it could, the Executive branch has demonstrated the economic harm being done by continuing them The cruise industries balance sheets are objective. The unemployment secondary to layoffs in the entirety of cruise ship operations are both enormous and objective. These are real facts. The CDC? Well, they say it cruise ship operations from US ports COULD be dangerous...... and this in the face of successful cruise ship operations in Europe. Case closed. The CDC hasn't made one based on the necessary facts. This is why in America, we have a a system of government framed in checks and balances. Pence, IMO and acting within his authority as the Chairman of the Pandemic Advisory Committee told Redfield to sit down. There's no politics in Pence's actions at all. Looking forward, I expect the Executive to let the No-Sail-Order expire on October 30th...... amidst the hand wringing of the various groups that have a vested interest in continuing the exaggerated negative narrative associated with COVID-19.

Allow the cruise industry to restart or keep it shuttered ........ a political decision? I think this is more likely to involve two different viewpoints both of them with supporting data behind them. One of them seriously flawed. The CDC believes congregate settings, such as those present on cruise ships have a high enough risk of promoting viral spread and endangering the Public Health to be curtailed. The data is unambiguous. Congregate settings do promote viral spread. The administration believes that with mitigation measures present, such as those proposed by the Sail-Safe Panel, the risk is sufficiently lowered that the economic benefits of green-lighting the cruise industry outweigh the Public Health risks. The economic harm to the cruise industry including every facet of supporting operations being rendered by the CDC's no sail order is also unambiguous. It is significant. I'd call it catastrophic when the entire supply chain for the cruise industry is considered. Two sides both with fair points. The CDC has been wrong before in matters involving SARS-CoV-2. They are wrong again extending the no-sail order for the cruise industry My personal view is that the CDC has, from the beginning of the pandemic in the US, over-stated the public health risks. That is not to say, by any means, that SARS-CoV-2 is harmless. It is not. It has the capacity to produce significant morbidity and mortality but the degree of it is highly age stratified allowing for targeted, specific containment measures instead of mass lock-downs. Moreover, and as our knowledge of the virus has increased, we have learned that simple mitigation measures that are layered are effective in controlling viral spread short of shuttering the economy and immobilizing citizens. Meanwhile, the protection of vulnerable populations has improved along with improved patient management when this cohort does become infected and requires hospitalization. During the entire pandemic, it is only now, 6 months down the road, that governments at the national level and local levels are realizing that the continued curtailment of social and economic activity is not sustainable. Cost/Risk/Benefit analysis is taking shape globally. Countries are recognizing that lock-down were counterproductive at the start and now continue to be more useless in controlling viral spread. Not only is this approach not sustainable but it also has already created previously unfathomable social and economic hardships that having nothing to do with the health related issues involving COVID-19. To sum it up, the damage done implementing many aspects of the CDC's approach to disease control has been enormous with little benefit to the public health. Keeping the cruise industry shuttered is just another example of bad policy with huge objectifiable downsides and few objectifiable benefits.

Good point ...... I think the point of Safe-To Sail-Plan produced by RCCL and NCL, endorsed by CLIA, was that it provided guidance, not directives. "Hopefully, other cruise lines will adapt our recommendations....." was included in the submission. But, you're right, none of the recommendations are binding and the CDC could say there has to be an indication that the recommended procedures have to be adopted by a cruise line and could be excluded from cruising from US ports if they don't. Another interesting development is that Florida Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio introduced legislation about a month ago that directs formation of a rule making body that would set standards for cruise line operations that, by law, ships operating from US ports have to abide by. Rules would include dealing both with the curretn COVID circumstance and future pandemics. I don't think passage is required for the CDC to make a determination that cruise lines are ready to operate safely in the COVID environment based on stated protocols and procedures that are already out there. But, as you mention, it's possible they want those to become binding and by law.

It doesn't matter what Carnival Corp. does with the CDC. They've already got a test bed in TUI, successfully operating in Europe and their Costa brand will start limited operations shortly out of Italy in the med. boasting a safe sail plan submitted to the Italian government similar to that RCCL and NCL developed and published very publicly. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/09/28/florida-schools-reopened-en-mass-feared-covid-surge-hasnt-followed/3557417001/ I can't imagine the CDC saying OK boys you all can start sailing from US ports except Carnival. There are just too many signals being sent that the CDC is going to relent. FL Governor Desantis' easing of restrictions and not allowing counties and cities to fine people in a police state fashion for not wearing a mask is targeted right at visitors and the tourist trade who will board cruise ships from 4 FL ports. I don't think for a minute he's not in touch with Fain and all the cruise industry big boys and knows exactly what's going down.

Regarding cruising from Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale........FL's Governor Desantis has long been an advocate of re-opening with sensible mitigation measures in place based on local data. Just speaking for Broward Co. where Port Everglades is, positivity rates have been under 5% for the last 14d straight. All other metrics designed to contextualize data points such as deaths and new case numbers using ED visits for Influenza and COVID like symptoms, hospital admissions, hospital ICU bed spaces occupied, ventilators used are all downward trending. To be clear, Desantis' announcement last Friday changed nothing with respect to masks and distancing. He had previously closed all bars (establishments relying on > 50% of revenue from alcohol sales) in the state. He cancelled that order allowing such drinking establishments across the state to open on Saturday. Other things like parks with playgrounds can re-open. Proprietors of both bars and restaurants must still limit capacity to 50% indoors, newly to 100% outdoors given the remaining requirement to space tables 6' apart or baring that have plastic barriers between booths. Patrons must still mask entering, exiting or moving around in a restaurant or bar. The biggest difference for both patrons and proprietors is that local officials cannot impose/collect fines for failing to comply with an existing order defining a mitigation measure. Officials and proprietors can point out violations and educate. Patrons are asked to act responsibly given the new freedoms...... mask and social distance where it is appropriate to do so. For now, Fort Lauderdale has achieved control of the virus if the data points I mentioned above are indicators of that. Besides advocating for re-opening, resuming social and economic activity to save jobs and boost FL's economy, he has also been an advocate of avoiding government over-reach with respect to both mitigation orders and enforcement. He has opposed from the start fining individuals and businesses, but leaving that up to local officials, for failure to comply with emergency orders instead promoting freedom from the threat of government over-reach and at the same time pointing out that with freedom comes responsibility to act in the best interests of community public health. My observation is that vulnerable cohorts have been nearly 100% compliant. Younger folks have been probably 60-70% complaint and that is the basic level of compliance required to limit viral spread (along with other measures being applied in a layered way). My bet is the stage is set for the CDC not to extend the No-Sail Order and it will expire possibly without comment on Wednesday. That will allow a restart of cruising out of Fort Lauderdale. If you've been paying attention, you will know exactly what that will mean and what the first cruises departing from Port Everglades will look like. I think it is going to take 4-5 weeks before non-employee passengers will sail. If all goes well, November 1st is the target date. First operations will involve test runs of 2-3 days with full crew and employees acting as PAX...... the entire dance is going to be very precise, choreographed and closely controlled. It's a proof of concept and the press will be unrelenting if anything goes wrong. RCCL and Celebrity will make sure nothing does go wrong and information will be strictly controlled while marketing transparency.

I'm booked on Celebrity Infinity departing Miami on 12/28 for a 5n New Years Cruise. I'd like to think that cruise will go - port calls are Key West and Cozumel. The issue that stands in the way is the drum beat of negativity from just about any source you want to name - public health authorities or the lay press, the press much worse than PH officials. What this creates is a wave of political pressures that ignores COVID facts and appropriate risk assessments and raises both PR and liability issues. In the last two weeks, a rapid test that provides results in 15 minutes at the point of care and doesn't cost much has become available. The logistics of getting them in place to be used by cruise lines is just one more logistics problem to solve for the lines. It's an obstacle, however, it could be one of the keys to resuming cruising. In comes the politics.....if you've been watching the news, colleges that welcomed students back on campus in mid-August are getting hammered by the media as a result of increased case numbers. Some Caribbean destinations that opened to tourists, quickly closed again when new cases popped up. I can make a strong case that only using new case numbers to guide Public Health policy is highly misleading. One cannot logically assess COVID risks by using only this data in isolation but that is what's happening. College administrators reacting to the pressure are ignoring (1) the impact of age stratification on disease burden, (2) multiple other metrics (ED visits, hospital admissions, etc) in assessing risks of serious illness - disease burden - from COVID. Countries are closing ports and airports and stopping tourism. Colleges are ending in-person learning, suspending sports and sending kids home which makes no sense at all but that's what the public seems to expect with those expectations fanned by the media. I've heard all the arguments against the case that you can continue any endeavor you choose to select, like cruising or going to school, protect the vulnerable and meanwhile keep the virus in check by simple masking and distancing. It always comes down to the micro, personal level, e.g., I don't want MY kids to go to school, get infected and come home to infect two generations of family members living under one roof. That argument fails because (1) it is rare occurrence to begin with and (2) it doesn't account for the upside social and economic benefits and the very low risk across all age groups when viewed at a macro level of serious illness secondary to infection. The addition of rapid testing - something, when it is warranted, that allows ID of asymptomatic COVID carriers to a 95% certainty level is a reality. That dramatically changes the risk calculus both on the macro level (the cruise industry in general and as it is viewed by the CDC) and the micro level (your own personal risk). Finally, if you don't like your chances, don't go until you do.

On testing ..... To be clear, while the FDA approved saliva tests last week, these are not rapid tests - they still require machine processing, in a lab, with the attendant delays that RT-PCR tests are experiencing now (3-14 days). The CDC's testing strategy, mandated by the FDA, relies on the RT-PCR (naso or naso pharyngeal swab). We're learning this is way to slow for the public health purpose of containment of the virus. We need a rapid test (think home pregnancy tests or Influenza A/B tests) that gives results in < 15 minutes. Those kinds of tests are out there. The FDA won't approve them for various reasons, none of them very good. Here's a link to the post I made discussing this in another thread:

O ye, of little faith'? ....... I'm still optimistic we'll get this thing under control. Over the last week, all the metrics involving COVID are downward trending, some of them steeply. FL is looking good - keep it up. There's also a good deal of testing technology coming down the road that could help stop community spread and make the US look more like South Korea. There's at least 3 vaccines one of which will likely see initial distribution by December 2020. I posted this in a little used Celebrity & Azamar thread in response to similar concerns about the resumption of cruising: I think this thinking about rapid, point of care (POC) testing and canning the current CDC's/FDA's testing strategy that has failed, and how rapid POC testing can be used to obtain containment is important. I'm writing my state legislators about it. recommend readers/posters here do the same. Spread the word.

I would agree with you here ..... under the present circumstance. That could change and quickly. The FDA just last week approved the use of Saliva screening tests for SARS-CoV-2 infections. This category of tests will slightly improve test to results time but these particular saliva tests still require machine processing in labs with the attendant delays in processing time. That's not fast enough to contain the virus. To do that requires quick ID of those infected and isolation then tracking contacts. The just approved saliva tests will work for groups in a bubble like sports teams or cruise ship crews being prepared for a sailing but in regions or states were community spread is high? No. Still too slow. Spot tests (think like a home pregnancy test) are needed to quickly ID a contagious person, isolate them and track contacts. Such products exist but the FDA won't approve them for a lot of different reasons none of them particularly good. The current testing strategy is based on the RT-PCR test. Its a diagnostic test, the gold standard but obtaining useful results for Public Health purposes, e.g., limiting the spread of a virus, it takes too long. South Korea used a combination of rapid tests and diagnostic tests right out of the gate and had a centrally controlled process to do that. The virus in SK is essentially controlled there. Enter US based manufactures such as e25bio that have developed rapid, on the spot tests that produce results at the point of care in < 15 minutes. There are others out there too. You want to go inside Walmart, go to a bar or restaurant, attend a sporting event .... board a cruise ship!!!, you get tested. If you're negative, you go in, if you're positive, you don't and you go home and isolate for 10d. This sort of rapid testing is not diagnostic, you save those for hospital settings where it's important to be nearly 100% right about a diagnosis. A rapid test simply identifies infected people at the point they are most contagious. It's Simple. How it works takes too long to explain and this post is long enough. Testing like this could be done regionally or by state, almost right now, like in FL or anywhere else where community spread is present. Longer term, as in the next 60-90 days, and to manufacture the tests to scale for wide distribution and use, it would take a paradigm shift in the CDC described, FDA mandated, US testing strategy away from RT-PCR testing for public health purposes, leaving it for hospital settings, and towards rapid testing to contagion. That approach is much better suited for the critical use as a public health tool designed to contain viral spread. That will require the political will to do this as well as to fund manufacturing and distribution at a war-time scale. After all, this is a war. Experts in this area think once manufacture and distribution is sufficient for full scale testing in the US, the virus could be contained in this country in 3-4 weeks. If the US started using this kind of rapid test right now and regionally where community spread is the highest, we'd get a head start on that. Maybe then, global health ministers will et American tourists in thier countries. What are we waiting for.

You have plenty of time to decide what to do ...... assuming you want to pay the final payment which will come due in September. You can cancel or lift and shift (L&S) as it becomes clearer in the months ahead what South American health misters will allow for travelers with US passports, what the CDC is going to do with its no-sail-order and what Celebrity will do with its itineraries after November 15th. My guess is that if you cancel and re-book, you are going to find that the same cruise in 2021 is going to be more costly .... that's why L&S is a good option for you. You can also cancel up to 48h in advance for any reason in accordance with the cruise with confidence program. Details here: https://www.celebritycruises.com/cruise-with-confidence A couple of other thoughts. I have a 5n, New Year's cruise booked on Celebrity Infinity out of Miami on 12/27/20. Final Payment will be due on September 19th I think it is. I have either taken FCCs (1 cruise cancelled by Celebrity) or L&S'ed 3 other Celebrity cruises from 2020 into 2021 ..... one in March, one in August, and one in October. I still have one FCC that is yet to be applied. I'm watching key indicators that will point to Celebrity sailing after 11/15/20 which could include my 12/27/20 New Years cruise. The shorter cruises, possibly on the smaller Millennium or Edge class ships, have a higher likelihood of sailing before longer itineraries on the larger Silhouette class ships do. I suspect yours is at least 10n, right? If trends are unfavorable before my final payment is due on that NY cruise, I'll not pay it and cancel. If trends look favorable, I'll make the final payment and at the appropriate time, with Celebrity looking as though they will be canceling everything for 2020, cancel that booking and request a refund. That's because continuing to tie up more money with Celebrity through FCCs or L&S that I already have on their books when the future of cruising is still very unclear doesn't make a lot of sense.

Here's another thing to watch: a possible shift in testing strategies within the US in attempts to control community spread of the virus. The testing strategy employed now isn't working. The author of this article argues cheap, widespread on demand testing has the potential to control viral spread in the US "in 3 weeks." It's a novel approach that involves simple saliva tests that work much like an OTC pregnancy tests - put a sample of saliva in the testing device, wait a few minutes, if a line appears in the testing window, your contagious. If you want to go into Walmart, board a cruise ship, attend a baseball or football game, before you enter you get tested. If you test negative, you get in; positive, go home, isolate for 10d and come back then. The author contends after you do this for three weeks (and he does the math to show how that works) community spread of the virus stops - pretty much normal life, social and economic activity returns. Let's do it! https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/how-to-test-every-american-for-covid-19-every-day/615217/

It's a combination of things to watch, not just one thing. Cruise lines that have returned to operations in Asia and Europe are having both success and failures in dealing with infections. We hear about every misstep but hear nothing of successes so, don't despair. TUI is cruising from German ports and I guess successfully. MSC is about to make a run in the Med on August 16th and again on the 24th. AIDA will cruise from Kiel and Hamburg in September. A resumption of cruising by RCL will be influenced by the success or failure of TUI, MSC's and AIDA's cruises. I expect that we will see RCL attempt to position ships and sail from Italian and German ports but only with passengers from the Schengen regions permitted to board after November 15th. I think it is important to watch how cruise lines deal with infections v. how the press presents it. That can be hard but be wary of media reports of "massive failures" of cruise lines who restart cruising. What we will need to assess progress will be data about the numbers of cruises that have taken place overall compared to the ones that have had a passenger or crew test + for C-19. More importantly will be information about how successfully the cruise line, port authorities, local transport and hospitals deal with passengers or crew that become infected. Watching the CDC: I think it is pretty clear that the CDC isn't going to lift it's no-sail-order from US ports until after November 15th if then. Why would the big three cruise lines uniformly cancel cruising though that date? I do think that the US government is weighing the huge economic hit that halting cruising from US ports is taking in FL and every other city that had a busy cruise port pre-COVID. I'm not convinced this will turn into action to revive the cruise industry but it might. The politics, local and national, of cruising, like a lot of things, is fickle but make no mistake, FL is losing billions each month that the CDC keeps its ports closed to cruise ship operations. Hundreds of thousands of workers who service the various interconnected aspects of the cruise industry are unemployed. Start Cruising and unemployment in FL will drop significantly as those presently fired or furloughed return to work. Trump is likely looking at this as a means to advance his reelection campaign. As for sailing from FL: watch Caribbean nation's health and tourism ministers. Here again, Caribbean nations are losing billions of dollars to the loss of cruise ships making calls at their island nation's ports. Compromises can be made that involve assessing risks of viral spread v.economic benefits of allowing cruise ships to make port calls. I think that this is the first place we'll see RCL, Celebrity, Carnival, NCL and HAL sail to out of FL ports. The cruises will start with 3-5d itineraries that will have at least one stop at a private island and only one, maybe two stops at cooperative Caribbean ports. Nassau, the Dominican Republic and possibly Puerto Rico as early candidates. If successful in dealing with infections, we could see a quick ramp up to 7, then 10d cruises that include Aruba - already one of the few islands that will allow American tourists. I'd expect each of these cruise lines to carefully select which class of ship will sail basing those decisions on profitability at reduced capacity. It seems to me that ships with under 3000 passenger capacity are more likely to sail early although the larger ships are more efficient and can operate at higher margins even with less capacity. No telling. As for dates, I think the week before Thanksgiving weekend is the target with the fall back being the December 10th through January 3rd time frame. So, watch closely for signs that crew are being called back to duty around the first week in November.

Sad for sure. People don't behave ...... it's not just in the US. My take is that non-compliance with reasonable mitigation measures is part of the problem; the other is the geometric progression issue. i.e., one non-conforming person who becomes infected begets 3 infections, 3 begets 9 and so forth. Before you know it you have 1000 infections. IMO, it's why lock-downs won't work because as soon as you unlock and mobility returns, so do infections. Endless cycle. My view is that you learn how to manage the inevitable disease burden within communities experiencing it. There is some mathematical sense to trying to drive the R values in a locale as low as possible and lock-downs are a way to do that. R values are the figures that reflect how many people one person infects - it varies periodically but the closer you get it to 1, the better. I think lock-downs are too harmful economically and socially. I'd opt for less restrictive, data driven targeted closures/restrictions, i.e., if street parties or late night bars are spreading the virus, enforce closures of them. Testing and contact tracing are important. The US sucks at this. Other countries, obtaining downward sloping growth rates (R values < 1.0) like Germany, South Korea and others are much better at testing, contact tracing and isolation. Creating bubbles is a whole different approach. In this scenario you create a living environment free of SARS-CoV-2, make sure it does not get introduced into the bubble and if it does, quickly identify the case(s) and isolate them. It's working in the US National Basketball Association (NBA) that involves at least 500, probably more players, coaches and staff. They reside and play in a single, access controlled space. Testing is conducted periodically on everyone in the bubble. Obviously there are limits to the size of the bubble - or how many people and in what size a venue can be. Could you create a bubble in the entire city of Melborne? Theoretically, yes. PracticalIy? No ....... the Chinese brutally enforced zero mobility and complete shuttering in Wuhan with rumors that apartment doors were welded shut and proprietors found operating businesses immediately imprisoned. That won't work in democratic countries. It is pretty clear to me that cruise lines are working to create a sort of bubble on cruise ships. It seems to be working for TUI, for example, who are cruising now with 1200+ passengers and an additional number of crew rigidly screened and/or quarantined before entering the bubble and then essentially confined to the ship's bubble. MSC is trying a similar approach but will make port calls that theoretically break the bubble - but I can see ways to do that and still manage the ships's bubble environment with rapid testing, rigorous tracing and isolating.