captainjak

True. But I don't think you can really make an apples to apples comparison between COVID-19 and the Seasonal Flu. Overall COVID-19 has about a 10 times higher death rate as a percentage of infected people. Much higher if you are older aged and/or have pre-existing health conditions. I would really be surprised to see anyone in, let's say their 70's on up (or even 60's), or people with pre-existing health conditions, in any situation where they are in a relatively enclosed environment with hundreds or thousands of people for extended periods of time (many hours or days.) Prior to receiving an effect vaccine. It's very possible that a future outbreak like the COVID virus could be much deadlier, like 25% death rate and affecting all age groups equally. That would be a complete world economic catatrophe if something happened like that where the virus was spread just as easy as COVID-19. People would not be leaving their house prior to a vaccine. "When you put yourself into a new environment like a hotel, ship, plane - you're introduced to factors out of your control" Yes. But the question is, do you choose to put yourself in that situation in the first place. With COVID, it can be a difficult choice based on personal circumstance a attitude towards/perception of the risk. If you had something like EBOLA that was spread just as easily, the decision would be much simpler. I ran some numbers a while back and I think it came out to each person's statistical likelihood of knowing an immediate family member or very close friend that has been infected by COVID is around 1 in 100 (in the USA). That greatly affects people's perception of the risk. That number will only get worse the longer the virus persists without an effective vaccine so people's attitudes on average may change over time prior to the vaccine as the chance it hits closer to home grows.

So I guess the bottom line is the answer to my original question is it's too early to tell with any degree of confidence if these precautions the cruise lines are guaranteeing they are taking will be effective at preventing an outbreak or at least containing it to the point all passengers on a ship don't have to be quarantined if only a few passengers are infected?

BINGO! So she may have meant they are guaranteeing they are taking all the safety precautions as required by the government to be able to cruise again.

Oh sorry about that. I think in some cases politics has a resulting affect on the subject matter of the cruise-related topic being discussed such as how it possibly affects curisers' determination of timing of their cruise vacation based on information they are receiving about vaccine availablity. Statement from policitians' therefore are relevant as far as people's expectations on timing of the vaccine. But I suppose there is a risk that some people can then go off track and want to debate politics. I'll refrain from any further comments on the political aspects. I've removed my remarks about statements being made for re-election purposes in my opinion. (For the record, I'm actually an Independent, in the middle.)

I sort of figured that but wasn't sure. Like you said, it's basically right now a wait and see. I would guess the accountants and risk experts have determined that there will be enough "early adopters" to help the cruise lines stop or slow their losses to the point it's worth the risk of another outbreak in the news. The Pac-12 Football league just announced they reversed their decision on canceling the season due to more availability of rapid testing. Maybe this will translate to other industries like the cruise industry but I don't know how feasible it would be to test every single passenger every time they board the ship at all ports? Guess they could test on the day or day prior to starting the cruise and hope no one gets anything at any of the ports of call early enough in the cruise to become contagious to the other passengers prior to having symptoms? Guess it will boil down (prior to vaccination) to every individual's risk tolerance. It's just without a lot of prior history data with safety measures in place, very hard to estimate the risk.

I'm thinking of taking a cruise this Winter (in North America) but not having pre-existing conditions or being older (I'm 51) I'm probably not going to be able to get vaccinated until next Spring (along with probably a lot of other people.) I see some cruise lines are starting back up in November. I read this excellent article here by Claudia Ceci ( https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5572/ ) that detailed some of the great lengths the ships are going to to make them safe. That's great! The thing I'm concerned about is that as we've learned more about the virus, we now know it spreads through the air, not just surfaces. So you really want to avoid confined spaces with large groups of people for long periods. So while the safety precautions the ships are taking definitely help reduce the risk, can't I still contract the virus from some asymptomatic purpose while breathing the same air as them in various parts of the ship, especially while eating with a mask off? Claudia's article keeps referencing a "guarantee" as in "safety guarantee" is this just being used figuratively or do I actually get all my money back if I catch the virus. For example the article states "With the restart of the cruises, you expect the first to book are the repeaters, yet this is not the case: on board there are many guests who are new to cruise. They chose it for the safety guarantee it offers and once on board they are discovering its infinite possibilities." Is this a money back safety guarantee? Does Royal Caribbean North American cruises have something similar? I understand that nothing in life is without risk, but I'm undecided as to whether to cruise this Winter before a vaccine? Seems like maybe some more time and many more ships sailing will eventually answer the question as to whether an outbreak can be prevented. But given the horror stories of passengers stranded of the coast when the virus broke out, wouldn't another virus breakout on a cruise ship prior to the world being vaccinated (could take another year?) be extremely catastrophic to the industry? I suppose all of us cruising before the vaccine are basically voluntary guinea pigs? What do other potential cruisers think?