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JeffB

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Everything posted by JeffB

  1. On the start-up of cruises (any kind) from UK ports...... I read Matt's comments on this which pieced together quotes from various sources. Pure speculation on my part but here goes: The UK is paralleling Israel's and the UAE's vaccine success in terms of shots in arms. This is a striking review of what Boris Johnson and his administration have accomplished so far. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833 What struck me was that every UK entity has vaccinated over 90% of its over 65 population. Upwards of 30% of UK citizens have received at least one shot of a vaccine with the AZ vaccine leading the way. Given the rough estimates of actual infections being in the 30% range of total population together with data that supports previously infected people have some level of immunity to re-infection, that might mean the UK is approaching herd immunity. So, what might this mean? Given RCL will start sailing Odyssey with revenue producing pax from Haifa, Israel in May, that signals to me that RCG will be looking to re-start cruising from whatever ports and on whatever itineraries/port calls in the countries that are rolling out vaccines the fastest. RCG will also look at accompanying declines in COVID metrics. Southampton comes immediately to mind with typical sailings East bound to St. Petersburg or North bound to Scandinavia having plenty of appeal. Another interesting port of possibility? Amsterdam in the Netherlands.....a country paralleling the US COVID experience with, IMIO, a much more relaxed and practical approach to pandemic risks. Will there be a vaccination requirement to travel internationally and within Europe for US passport holders to get to a cruise port? You read it in Matt's post: "there will probably be a hybrid model (for boarding) using testing and (proof of) vaccination. OK, I'll admit, I have a bias for this argument. My wife and I have both been fully vaccinated. I recently booked a Celebrity Reflection 7n cruise out of Amsterdam that departs July 11th and travels to 4 Norwegian ports. Crazy? Maybe but ..... if you've been reading my posts you know (1) I am a fact and science based optimist. (2) I am a strong re-opening advocate. I'm also a bit of a risk taker and am putting my money where my mouth is. My take on the global pandemic is this: in Asia, North America, Western & parts of Eastern Europe - the EU states in general, falling COVID metrics, in conjunction with increasing numbers of vaccinated citizens in those places, will precipitate easing COVID related mobility and social contact restrictions. I predict this based on my view that these governments being more sensitive to and favorably disposed to re-opening of businesses in the travel and leisure sector, will do so. Governments not so disposed, e.g., Australia and New Zealand will probably hold back on re-opening. Fair enough. If you want data that supports that view, go here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles then select a country of interest and explore the data that interests you. Look here https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections for projections of the various data sets - COVID metrics globally or by country - into the early summer. By that time, SARS-2 won't be eradicated but it's disease burden and it's economic and social impact will (or should have baring politics) declined substantially. JUNE!!! If what I am predicting among others who know a lot more about SARS-2 than I do, in 60d (first week in May), you won't be able to book air travel, a hotel or a cruise because agents will be swamped with bookings, prices will skyrocket and availability for the best of them will dwindle rapidly. We'll see, I guess, but don't wait a whole lot longer to book if you feel comfortable traveling in what will amount to a lowered risk, post pandemic environment and want to get to it. I've predicted sharp declines in pandemic metrics as vaccines reach saturation levels in countries likely to host restarts of cruising. Based on that, I have four cruises booked going into December, two involving ports in Europe, two out of FL to the Caribbean. I'm prepared mentally for all of them to get cancelled and offered readers here to come back and pat me on the back or shoot me in 2 months time as I'm completing pre-boarding tasks for my next booked cruise in June.
  2. Hmmmm...... good guestimating. It peaked my interests so, I found what I needed at the web site I linked to below. I can interact with this graph displayed below at the link and can look at the daily case count. The 7d moving average as of 03/02 was 5 new cases/d so, after 20d, you'd hit that 100 case threshold. I'm good with that. Fair enough. But, the problem with that is, why didn't Curacao get a Level 4 designation from August through early December? It looks like that PH authorities there did a swell job of controlling the virus and what do they get for that from the US? A slap in the face. Politics are funny. I would not be surprised at all to see Curacao prohibit US passport holders from entering their country. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/curacao/
  3. Welp, not me, I'll let 'er rip ........ Twangster's thought is spot on. The problem is that Congress is tied up with getting some important stuff done so, introcuding a bill like that would probably be a non-starter. Still...... An EO might work but me thinks restarting cruising is not high on Joe Biden's list of things to do despite it being a perfectly reasonable and highly effective way to stimulate the economy at no cost, as Twangster points out, to the Feds...... and ye[, it would be politically dangerous for him to swim upstream on this with an EO. Or, maybe he could send a personal message to Ms Walenski, head of the CDC, a message signed by the president himself, that he wants her to "think" about, strongly "think" about sending the "technical guidance" the cruise industry is waiting on the CDC for to start test cruises and then opening up some cruise ports based on local COVID data so that test cruises could begin with an eye toward resuming cruising with passengers, probably to now where to start with, oh, let's say in May!
  4. I think there is something to that first part. Maybe less so, the second. If I had the time and interest to dig into the data I talked about up thread so I could verify the how's and wherefores that the CDC put Curacao in the level 4 part of the grid, I'd do it. This entire COVID pandemic has gotten so political that it would not surprise me at all that data was fudged or interpreted differently to support messaging from the US Government that, wait a minute, it's not safe for American's to travel yet even though vaccines are becoming widely available and SARS-2 infection risks and serious consequences developing from it, always pretty low, are being sent lower. Actually, the US is doing pretty well but you'd not know that from most things everyone is reading or listening to. Even Fauci and Walenski (CDC) the current faces of the US Governments public health policies are adding a lot of rejoinders to positive COVID news.... or, hey, we're not ready yet, keep hibernating. Have a look at this Johns Hopkins University COVID tracking display for new case numbers (something I believe to be too easily misinterpreted when looked at out of context). Only a tenth of US states have upward trending new case numbers. The greener the background the steeper the decreasing case numbers trend lines, the redder the background the steeper the increasing trend lines:
  5. I just looked at Curacao's public health web site. On March 2nd, the government conducted 278 tests and found 5 positives. That's a one day positivity rate of 1.79% (recall below 5% the virus is considered controlled/not circulating. The site I had access to did not have total tests per day or per month and you need to know that and the total population of Curacao (156,000) to fit Curacao into the grid that determines what level CDC assigns them found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/how-level-is-determined.html Curacao, like most Caribbean destinations, has strict protocols for entry and from what I can tell an able public health system that insures compliance. I simply can't imagine how this tiny country has reached a level 4 designation by the CDC. I don't have all the data I need to indicate they are mistaken but it seems to me, this place is pretty safe if you are taking basic precautions. I'd really like to know the numbers. I have so little trust in the CDC right now but would hope that Curacao fits into one of the boxes on the CDC grid that warrants a level 4 designation. I simply cant imagine it does based on the small amount of data I did see and the miniscule numbers of positive cases it looks like this country has on a daily basis....... but what do I know.
  6. "EU Announces Plan for Vaccine Passports." It's coming. Cross boarder EU travel is going to be available at some point when objections to the discriminatory nature of these things either get sensibly over-come or simply rolled over despite those objections. It's not clear in the article how US citizens who have been vaccinated will be treated. Looks like for now, anyway, it's EU passport holders who will be getting the green light. https://www.thedailybeast.com/europes-covid-passports-coming-to-an-airport-near-you-in-march
  7. Correct on several counts ...... if you are booked in May or beyond, you're absolutely right, you have to pay attention. I agree that there's going to be a ship by ship, port by port restart. I believe the Haifa announcement this morning presages what is to come out of global sailings to include from US ports. RCL wants to get back to it and it is going to do everything it can to do that given what they are seeing from the CDC. I think someone posted somewhere on this forum his/her concern that European (or Mediterranean) ports might replace US ports if those became available before US ports did because the CDC continues it's obstinance and convoluted, ship-by-ship re-start technicals. That means ships normally sailing out of US ports would be moved to support that plan. There is no question that Italy and Greece (have not heard about Black Sea ports within Eastern European countries) want tourists back and cruise ships will bring them faster than boatloads of airplanes both countries have had less restrictive approaches to the pandemic. I think the UK and Germany will join them and may allow more cruise lines to operate from their ports with vaccinated crew/pax very shortly. With the exception of Dubrovnik - which I have heard is concerned about "over-tourism" and cruise ships dumping thousands into that port/city - Italian and Greek cities with ports aren't pushing back like, for example, Key West has, ending that port as a cruise ship stop-over. The writing is on the wall ...... ports will re-open sequentially and one-by-one to cruise ships based on local R(0), sero-prevalence (positivity) and to what level public health officials in those countries will ease travel restrictions. Then, you'll need a vaccination to board. The cruise lines aren't going to wait on the CDC to make up it's mind and that could hurt FL and several other states in the short term. I know that Governor Desantis has argued for opening FL's ports to cruise ships. It's a big part of his whole approach to the pandemic which hasn't shut down much, has few mobility restrictions and has targeted almost exclusively the elderly, especially those in LTC facilities and done a bang up job keeping that group alive and reducing hospitalizations and deaths.
  8. What can we take from RCL's announcement that Odyssey will sail from Haifa on May 21st as Matt just posted on the front page? Well, if ports in FL and TX can lead the way in getting their COVID numbers right, we could see those ports getting sequentially greenlighted by the CDC. This thinking based on the experience in Israel may not translate to the US but I could see the CDC looking regionally and locally with lifting sailing restrictions instead of lifting the restrictions entirely. Besides that? Getting on an RCL cruise ship that's debarking from just about anywhere is going to require a vaccination.
  9. I don't disagree with this, after all, influenza has been absent this flu season mostly because of mitigation measures such as sanitizing surfaces. Both H1N1-influenza and norovirus are both known to be transmitted by fomites - the epidemiologic term for fingers > touch a contaminated surface > touch mucous membranes (mouth, nose eyes) > develop disease symptoms (fever, body aches, vomiting, diarrhea). My point was that it is now within the body of SARS-2 scientific knowledge that SARS-2 is not transmitted via fomites. Public health officials have advanced the notion that hand washing, use of hand sanitizers, sanitizing surfaces with products like Clorox or Lysol is an effective mitigation measures for stopping the spread of the virus from the beginning and continue to emphasize it now. It isn't and amounts to little more than virtue signaling. Masking and distancing to stop the spread of the virus by it's primary mode of transmission - airborne droplets and aerosols - is very important. While there is no doubt that increased sanitizing of surfaces in public areas has decreased disease from viruses spread by this mode of transmission, emphasizing it as a effective mitigation measure for COVID is counter-productive. That is because people learn it doesn't help and that develops mistrust to public health guidance and fuels antipathy toward measures that do work.
  10. Why is the Points Guy wrong about calling the number one thing to watch to signal a restart of cruising is new case numbers. Well. he's right in one sense since too many simply don't understand the science and the facts. But Public Health Officials deciding on what metrics should guide easing of mitigation measures should look at R(0) or the number of people one infected person then infects others. When that number is <1.0, the virus is receding, circulating and increasing when it's > 1.0. This is a graphic depiction of R(0) by state followed by a listing of each state's R(0). If I counted correctly, 3 states have increasing numbers of cases (R-0 >1.0) https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/ If you want to dig into this and see national data current through today go here: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/ A couple of take-aways from these charts: R(0) at the second link shows a real and forecast upward trend - this is where Fauci and Walenski are getting information to suggest that new cases may not be declining as fast as 2 weeks ago or are rising. There are multiple caveats to the data. If the testing circumstances change (e.g., less aggressive testing, more aggressive testing) it affects the reliability of the data sets rendering forecasts unreliable. So, I take with a grain of salt Fauci's and Walenski's warnings on Friday and Biden's pessimism on Saturday evening. That is because, in the US, as vaccines become available, public health resources are being diverted from testing sites and moved to vaccinations sites - less testing is happening. As well, fewer people are requesting to be tested. I'm more inclined to look at data 7-14d ago as being more reliable than the last 7d. IOW, the trend in virus circulation is downward and will stay that way as long as getting vaccines into peoples arms is front and center. I'd add that augmenting the R(0) metric with hospitalizations and deaths - both declining in absolute terms and trending downward in rate terms - supports the take that the virus is receding not that it is accelerating or will accelerate.
  11. Obviously good news on the vaccine front today. After what seems like the 15th approval in a long list of news of, "it's approved", the J&J vaccine will begin distribution from manufacturing sites tomorrow. It's a one shot vaccine with trials underway to determine if two shots of it are better. Trials are also underway for teens. It's a "cold virus analog" carrying the SARS-2 spike protein that stimulates a protective immune system response. This, unlike the mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer, is a prototypical vaccine similar to AZ's and both the Russian and Chinese versions or your annual flu shot. The biggest advantage is that it can be stored in a fridge for up to 60d. Side effects are comparable to the Pfizer and Moderna shots - arm soreness, flu like symptoms. It's considered 85% effective in preventing serious disease and death v. all 6 of the troublesome variants that I posted about above. It's 66% effective when moderate disease is included - the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines never included moderate disease in their trials. Comparing the effectiveness of the 3 isn't possible due to trial designs. Don't refuse one to wait for another you think is better. Take whatever is available as soon as it becomes available to you. 20M doses immediately available for distribution, 100M "by summer." If I've got this right, the US will have enough vaccines distributed by the end of May to have inoculated everyone over 18 who accepts it.When herd immunity is reached depends on the rate of vaccine acceptance. Obviously, the more people that refuse the vaccine for non-medical reasons, the later herd immunity will be reached. Anywhere close to 60% gets us there by the end of April.But still we have this pessimistic messaging that I've derided elsewhere:“This is exciting news for all Americans, and an encouraging development in our efforts to bring an end to the crisis,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “But I want to be clear: this fight is far from over,” he added, encouraging people to stick with masks and other public health measures.Look, I'm not a virologist, an epidemiologist or an expert on this but everything I read, you know, the scientific facts, tells me that providing pessimistic messaging like this is counterproductive and encourages and continues the fear factor that is keeping people tethered to their homes and avoiding social contact while public health officials refuse to ease mitigation measures.FACT: You can't get COVID from touching a surface yet we persist with this sanitizing of surfaces in public venues. The risk of getting COVID outside, even in congregate settings, is lower than being involved in a serious car crash with injuries. Do we stop driving? Nope. Are there places where COVID mitigation measures include no public gatherings of more than X number of people and masking outdoors? Yes, a lot of places. In a gathering of vaccinated people, no one needs to mask or distance yet, in FL, because of the kind of messaging coming from Biden among others, fully vaccinated retirees living in community settings, won't play cards, dance or gather with each other. In their "golden years" they are sacrificing what is most important for their mental health, face-to-face socialization. Ridiculous. I'm more reluctant to discard masking and distancing for the unvaccinated under 65 crowd when out and about although I can make a case for that based on risk/benefit analysis. It's not because I think increased disease burden in the US will occur in this population. It won't. I do think the potential for increasing new cases and positivity counts is real. There was an article yesterday at the Points Guy website that said, "the one number to watch for the restart of cruising is (absolute) case numbers. I'll get to why that's wrong in a subsequent post. Of course, people in the under 65 age cohort will mostly be asymptomatic or have a cold. But, if this population pursues testing and because of it case numbers rise there's a problem with that. The problem is that public perceptions and how PH officials view this will harden, e.g., the CDC won't green light cruising from US ports. The MSM will augment the fear factor by reporting the rising case numbers as a new wave of the virus - the fifth! An increase in case numbers/positivity (sero-prevalence) will prompt a refusal to ease mitigation measures, mobility restrictions and restrictions to congregate settings. People will continue to needlessly stay home, won't shop, won't eat out, won't socialize, won't gather responsibly. Stoking the fear factor will increase pressure from the public to keep unnecessary mitigation measures in place - and for Pete's sake, don't let cruise ships operate. Everyone will nod their heads in agreement.
  12. Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or a serious question. I'm going with the later ....... This stuff is interesting tm me, may not be to others but I post it here mainly because there is so much misinformation about the SARS-2 variants, what they actually are, whether vaccines will be compromised by their appearance or whether or not they evade detection and produce more serious symptoms. The authors of the article where this chart appeared, along with being frankly honest about the risks a handful of variants present to controlling the virus, is that a mutation process known as "convergent evolution" dictates that more worrisome SARS-2 variants will be few instead of many. In practical terms it means that variants found in South Africa may be of the same lineage than those found in Brazil. The implication is that vaccines can be tweaked to handle just a few lineages containing multiple variants and will work fine against all of them. Something I took from this chart is that out of the hundreds of variants (not all of them are shown here) only 6 of them are of concern to scientists studying them and 1/2 of these come from the same lineage.
  13. What I just said ..... stop worrying about extremely unlikely COVID risks. This is a Bloomberg opinion piece that's paywalled but is free content here: https://tylerpaper.com/ap/commentary...88d89ab63.html Props to Matt's mention of the July 2020 study that showed cruise ships were pretty safe places to be. That study got absolutely ignored in the rush to hammer and scapegoat the cruise industry. So wrong!
  14. Well, today's messaging from Fauci and Walensky is anything but encouraging or words that might lead to local officials easing restrictions or the CDC greenlighting cruising. In fact, quite the opposite and, IMO, intended. According to these now public faces of the Biden administration's COVID experts, the rate of decline in new infections is slowing so, don't break out the Champaign just yet ..... or worse, don't start relaxing mitigation measures or letting the cruise industry get back to producing billions in global economic activity.Here's the basis of that. Epidemiologist think that the UK variant is going to become the dominant strain in the US. It has risen from 1% of new cases to 10% here. The UK variant is more transmissible because it spends more time in the human host compared to the original strain (13d v. 8d). Ostensibly, that leads to one person infecting more people that they come in contact with, IOW R(0) rises. So, R(0) must be rising, right? Is R(0) rising?I track three sources of data that are the basis for R(0) - the most reliable measure of trends in circulating virus; when it's below 1.0 it can be present but it is not increasing in sero-prevalence (% positivity). All of them are in agreement: the presence of the virus is declining*. There may be local increases but these are few and far between. Check your state here:https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/...united-states/* This data is collated and presented at this website on a weekly basis and is current as of 02/20/2021. The CDC does not get anymore accurate data than what the states report and they will report week-ending data for 02/26/21 tomorrow. Wslenski is shamefully premature and probably wrong in suggesting that circulating virus "could be" on the rise.Are deaths and hospitalizations rising? Nope...... and these two metrics are the best and most important measures of COVID disease burden.https://covidtracking.com/analysis-u...19-data-feb-25So, what is this, people? If I can go out and show that today's statements made by Fauci and Walensky are at best premature and at the worst, blatantly wrong and misleading how much confidence should Americans have in what they're selling? Is there any doubt why people are still scarred and won't go out? Why the CDC is holding out on allowing cruises to operate from US ports causing billions in losses to this industry? Any doubt why we will continue to have these unnecessary measures being foisted on us by local officials? To bring that point home, an article popped up in my local Sun Sentinel around 2p today. The author interviewed a handful of vaccinated people in S FL asking them if their behavior was going to change after they got vaccinated and as more Floridians got their shots? Everyone of them said they were still concerned about getting COVID and still wouldn't go out or socialize much ...... face palm follows. Once people buy into how they should behave, it is really hard to change that unless and of course you aren't following this advice like sheep.
  15. ....... an additional comment as my initial post took an over 65 view of matters. It's important to understand that EVERYONE benefits from a vaccination priority system that vaccinates the 65 and up US population. The cohort from 65 and up has produced 77% of COVID related serious illness and deaths. That's not to say that there haven't been under 65s who have suffered. There have been, and not just a few. But to simultaneously reduce SARS-2 disease burden and control the virus (R0 < 1 on a regional or by state basis or, % positivity < 5% by county) requires initially vaccinating the over 65 population when supplies are limited like they are now. With regard to "best bang for the buck" this is the right strategy and it is paying off handsomely in reduced hospitalizations and deaths - big time. Related to vaccination priorities is the news in the last two days that a large increase in doses from Pfizer and Moderna can be expected in the next 2 weeks. We're talking a plus up in the multi-millions of additional shots. Next, J&J got approval from the FDA today - as promised as the go/no go date by the FDA - for emergency use of their one shot vaccine. Those won't get to arms until late March. Side note: ignore the MSM's reports that the J&J vaccine isn't as "strong" as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines ..... bull hockey. It will work just as well and just as dramatically as the two mRNA vaccines and are much easier to transport, store and administer. Moreover, it is impossible to compare vaccine efficacy product to product because testing protocols and reporting requirements were different for each of them. Bottom line, if you are offered a vaccine, no matter which one, take it. If you are onboard the anti-vax ship to start, I can almost guarantee you, like Israeli public health officials are messaging to their citizens, "you'll be left behind." You're going to continue to be mostly homebound as far as travel goes if there is wide introduction of "vaccine passports." Over the next 2 months the availability of the vaccine for under 65s is going to expand exponentially. Don't not take it because you might think you really don't need it or have concerns about safety or side effects. First, the benefits far outweigh the risk (except for a few exceptions due to allergies) and second, yes, you do need it if we are going to reach herd immunity and all of us are able to return to a post-COVID normalcy that includes cruising.
  16. Link? Love to hear people's takes, positive and negative.
  17. Started this new thread topic spurred on by the news of Azamara canceling cruises through June, 2021. If I'm not mistaken, Azamara ports predominantly in locations other than the US (they list Miami as a port of call). I'm not taking much from this news because of that as I think the tendency is going to incorrectly associate Azamara COVID decision making with RCG. I think Azamara will work closely with RCL wrt health protocols but not undertaking test and restarting revenue sailings from US ports with Azamara not sailing from any of them. Having gotten that out of the way, back to the thread title: IT'S COMING. I started to title the thread It's Happening but that wording suggests things are underway or will happen imminently. Instead, I think ..... The CDC will green light test sailings from US ports by mid-May at the latest. Given a green light to start test sailing, all the majors will slowly restart revenue sailings during the first week in June in combination with additional test sailings. Each ship is required to do these to obtain technical certification from the CDC before each ship is allowed to embark passengers. Initial itineraries will launch from a select number of ports in FL and TX - that's because (1) These states are politically more liberal wrt mitigation measures and lifting them. (2) Governor Desantis in FL has already said his state is ready to welcome back the cruise lines to ports in Fort-Lauderdale, Miami, Tampa and Orlando. The first region to have cruise ships sail within it will be the Caribbean Basin. Three and four day cruises to no where or just as likely to private islands will predominate until the cruise lines work out details with countries that have cruise ports within the Caribbean basin to include Mexico. When that is achieved we'll begin seeing 7d and ultimately longer itineraries but still in the Caribbean. Australian, Asian and European itineraries with US citizens on board are less certain in my mind and that is because of the perception by health authorities there that US travelers are higher risk for disease spread than EU or Asian citizens. As for Australia and New Zealand, I doubt cruising will resume from there anytime soon. The UK could be an exception. Land based tours and river cruises in the EU and Asia will happen before mega cruise ships carrying US passengers return to the major foreign ports - maybe smaller ships carrying under 1000 passengers by June/July 2021. September is a more likely time frame for the aforementioned regions, not including Australia and New Zealand, for large ship cruising to resume there. What do I base this on? To be clear, other than my medical background and the amount of time I spend researching and reading COVID related medical literature, I have no special insight. I have a re-opening bias and have since February of 2020. I was stupendously wrong about the length and social, economic impact of SARS-2 but I attribute some of the damage done to certainly politics and just as importantly to overreacting to the virus when it hit the US. US public health authorities used the proverbial sledge instead of scalpel. Rather than scientific facts driving public health policy, fear and a "do something" mentality prevailed and a lot of "something" at the local level was flat-out wrong and unnecessary. . There's room for debate here and I acknowledge that but barring unnecessary overreacting and politics, IMO, the US could have avoided a lot of COVID deaths, got kids back in school and avoided the shuttering - social and economic - that did take place. You have to be hiding under a rock to not have heard that the introduction of vaccines to what should be the primo target population - over 65 - has dramatically lowered all three standard measures of COVID disease burden - death, hospitalizations AND, surprisingly, new infection absolute numbers and rates of infection (R0). If one is strictly following the emerging scientific data, vaccinated people should be granted increased mobility and be subject to less stringent mitigation measures. In a mixed group of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, sensible, layered mitigation measures (limited access - to include negative RAPID testing for entry, capacity control, distancing and masking) will keep everyone safe by reducing risk, not to zero - as it can't be - but good enough...... the later being particularly applicable to the cruise industry. I'm 50/50 on a vaccine mandate to cruise (or travel for that matter) for a lot of different reasons. But you can bet someone at RCL has asked how many bookings do we have for over 65s and what is the estimate of how many of those have been vaccinated? Can we cruise and make money with just that population? Given my optimistic bias take all of this FWIW. I'm also, admittedly, reading between the lines of recent cruise talk from cruise line executives to knowledgeable cruisers. For example, the Biden administration and it's two main public health spokes persons (Fauci and Walenski -CDC) are purposely articulating easy to reach COVID goals for political purposes. You have to believe these people have a much clearer understanding of a likely return to some level of post-COVID normalcy than they are letting on and will spring it on the electorate pronouncing a job well done, exceeding all the goals and beyond expectations by the present administration and President Joe Biden. Or, take for example, Fain ..... "we should be getting technical guidance from the CDC any day now" or, this ...... at least in the case of RCL, shoring up the company financial ship to, IMO, secure a viable approach - insuring the cash is at hand to return ships from warm storage and assemble/train crews, all on short notice. It's coming. Check back with me in 60d to see how wrong or right I might have been with this post.
  18. I touched on this problem in my original post above. On Friday, the NYTs did a surprisingly apologetic piece on the damage being done by journalists (and scientists) contributing to the the nihilism you speak of. It carries over to anti-vaxer thought as well, that is to say, "if the vaccines have so many caveats about effectiveness, possible side effects, and worst of all the potential for re-infection by a variant even if you have been vaccinated, why bother." First none of this stuff - and it's coming out of the mouths of respected sources like Fauci, for example we're making great progress, the vaccines are working ..... but, but, but, are factually accurate. It's also misleading. These "experts" (and they are) send a message that we aren't sophisticated or knowledgeable enough to understand details. Here are the facts: the vaccines already in circulation to include Pfizer's, Moderna's, AZ's and as far as trials go, J&J, all have efficacy v. all three known and studied variants (there are actually over 200 of them but the variants being studied the most are ones that have mutations in the spike proteins and demonstrably increase rate of transmission or R0). I can't speak for the Chinese, Russian or Indian vaccines. Casual and cursory looks indicate these vaccines are working too. What large scale studies being conducted in Israel by apolitical, public health agencies have already demonstrated or early and small scale studies point to is that NO ONE is getting seriously ill or dying regardless of the genomic structure of SARS-2 that is the infecting agent. NO ONE! There are RARE occasions (although the press will make you think it's in the millions) of vaccinated people that get re-infected. Serology studies of these people indicate that SARS-2 viral loads are very low (reduces shedding) and that symptoms on re-infection are similar to the common cold - this is a coronavirus after all. You'll catch a cold by the same means that people were catching COVID a year ago. Vaccinated people just aren't getting sent to the ICU and dying anymore There is also considerable evidence that vaccinated people - even after the first shot - are protected, don't need to mask or distance in all circumstances and many of the state and local patch-work mitigation measures can be safely ignored. That doesn't mean its a free-for-all. All levels of Illness from seasonal Influenza have been significantly suppressed. That is because of human behaviors being followed for COVID by a lot of folks. It is one of the reasons, along with the normal trends of viruses and the introduction of vaccines that every COVID metric is on the decline and downward trending and not just by a little. Those kinds of sensible measures should continue to be followed - wash your hands, even wearing a mask in enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces where people gather is a good idea that we should continue to practice as most Asians do.
  19. There are multiple factors involved in successfully manufacturing vaccines at scale. The risks to vaccines into arms get broken down in detail in the article at the link below. The author provides ways to mitigate the risks and bottle necks. They can be overcome but it's not like flipping a light switch on and suddenly billions of vaccine doses are rolling off the assembly line. Getting to scale, though, is doable. I've got my fingers crossed that the Biden administration understands this and is publicly low balling goals and talking about delays because it's better to do that and resolve delays and exceed goals than to fail and cast doubt about success.https://www.mckinsey.com/business-fu...ccine-rollout#This link is to an interview with UCLA MD Virologist done by an MD interviewer from Johns Hopkins. What's interesting about it is the explanation of the spike proteins in the typical viruses hounding us today, including SARS-2, and how these RNA viruses mutate and why it is so important to bust our asses to get COVID vaccine in arms. I think it can be done and a lot earlier (late spring/early summer) than some pessimists think (late fall)......and I think Fauci is purposefully raising vaccine concerns and low balling. There's a strong argument that the negativity and long list of caveats coming from scientists, medical professionals and journalist writing about it is affecting willingness to get the shot ..... not good.https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/91026
  20. We've learned recently that Crystal Cruises (owned by Genting Hong Kong) is going to require C-19 Vaccinations to board. No exceptions including for children under 16. In response to questions from others I converse with on these subjects about the legality or constitutionality of requiring vaccinations to engage in certain activities (travel, leisure, things like getting a drivers license or similar government required documentation) I found this: In the US it is legal and constitutional to require vaccination in a public health emergency (we are in one) Jacobson v Massachusetts, 197 - US11 (1905). https://www.oyez.org/cases/1900-1940/197us11 Anecdotally, the Israeli government, that leads the globe in percent vaccinations of their citizens (about 40%; 70% in over 65s) is messaging that to participate in the reopening of the state that is going to follow in the next few months, you'll have to get vaccinated or "you will be left behind." Even though it is entirely reasonable and should be required to get vaccinated if one wants to return to many activities we enjoyed pre-pandemic, especially those involving congregate settings (sporting events, concerts, cruising), I'm not confident that will happen in the US. Doing so would be a political nightmare regardless of the correctness of doing it. Political side shows involving questions of equity would surely develop and cloud sensible thinking about good public health policy. Frankly and on the other hand, I don't see how the cruise industry can resume operations without requiring it of passengers. Certainly they can ...... through a complex and burdensome set of protocols that continue to be unclear and of what we do know of what they might be, are expensive and highly unpopular...... but why not just require vaccinations. That the CDC has apparently not moved forward on providing guidance to the industry on what the lines need to do to start sailing again suggests to me that they are considering a directive that requires passengers and crew to be vaccinated. They will probably abandon the crazy stuff they ginned up after the "No Sail" order expired in October, 2020. That boarder closures globally are continuing and only being eased in countries that demand proof of vaccination before entry suggests to me that health authorities that ultimately determine who can visit their countries via airports or sea ports will demand the same for cruise ships wishing to port at facilities where they have the authority to control access. We're in uncharted territory with the current SARS-2 pandemic wrt how you go on with life given the likely continued global presence of the virus at some level of circulation, and for a long time to come. Confounding factors include the huge increase in pre-pandemic mobility people enjoyed compared to, say, the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. I don't see governments critically thinking about how to move forward and the stymied cruise, travel and leisure industry in general is a reflection of that inaction. My take is that the cruise industry should proactively declare they will require vaccinations for passengers and crew in order sail. Next, they should file an injunction with the appropriate federal court having jurisdiction over such matters asking for relief from the CDC's unfair and discriminatory strangle hold on their business operations given the industries requirement for cruise passengers and crews to be vaccinated. Ask the court that the date for the start of said relief be based on R0 (the accepted measure of circulating virus) to be < 1.0 in a US port facility from which the line wishes to embark. From that point, it should start working collectively to negotiate with foreign health authorities in ports they wish to call on. Start by stating they will only do so at ports where the local R0 value is < 1.0, health authorities approve a port call and will disembark only passengers or crew that have been vaccinated AND have received a negative RAPID C-19 Test result in the 24h preceding the port call. I'm ready to cruise but am increasingly frustrated by the lack of critical thinking on how to go about doing that at a time certain, in the SARS-2 pandemic environment. We've waited long enough. Too long. A safe to sail date in late May or early June is possible. Governments have unfairly hobbled and caused massive losses in an industry that provides billions of dollars in economic activity and millions of jobs globally. Vaccines to prevent serious illness, death and transmission are here. It can be done.
  21. Correct ........ effective treatment does require early recognition of signs and symptoms and targeted therapies based on physical exams and labs. There's also a butt-load of caveats for specific drug therapies which are beyond the scope of my post. If you're interested and have a sense for the medical science, these are credible links. The NEJM link is pretty current: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7365905/ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra2026131
  22. The reason for the apparently wide variance in symptoms following inoculation with any of the mRNA vaccines is the multitude of factors that define the human innate (T and CD cells) and adaptive (Ig) response. There really is no practical way of knowing in advance how you will react to a vaccine in preparation for the likelihood that the cruise lines will require these to board in the coming months (JMO, YMMV). There are blood tests that can be run to assess Ig (allergy testing for example), T and CD cell populations in your blood but these aren't routine, they are expensive and are used more in management of severe allergies and immune compromising diseases like HIV. Researchers doing studies might use them as well. Many people have been exposed to the coronavirus (common cold). That SARS-2 is a coronavirus, you may have developed CD4 and 8 cells that will recognize inoculation with a SARS-2 vaccine. It is generally understood by immunologist that a strong T-Cell response (the intel gatherers of the innate immune system) will produce a stronger inflammatory (cytokine mediated) response - fever, body aches, etc.). That's not a slam dunk reason but it is a reasonable explanation. You may have heard of "cytokine storm" - the body's over-reaction to an assault by a pathogen. Early on in the pandemic this was killing people infected with SARS-2. The treatment, simple enough, was prednisone - an immune suppressant and more complex therapies involving immune-modulators. Thus, if either you don't have a strong innate immune system to begin with or you've never developed CD4,8 memory cells from a previous exposure to a coronavirus in the past, you are probably more likely to have a stronger inflammatory response as your body's immune system explores and learns when exposed to the SARS-2 vaccine. The bottom line on the immune system: There is a lot that isn't known with scientific certainty about the human body's immune system. It's complex with a lot of moving parts working together so that humans can survive the thousands of pathogens that assault us. NB: This is a post based on the science as I understand and can explain it. I support Matt's efforts to keep discussion to cruising ..... I did mention cruising ?
  23. The CDC is now the Biden administration's CDC. I don't see any reason for Dr. Walenski, the new CDC Director, to back off the Safe-To -Sail protocol. This is an onerous bar for the cruise industry to rise above. If the NCL move to repatriate most of it's crew members is an accurate reflection of corporate survival strategy to reduce costs, that. seems to me to be a white flag. I think there is going to be some political pressure to not see cruise lines that are operating from US ports to fail. There is too many jobs associated with the travel and leisure industry, especially in Florida, that any idiot can make a good case that these jobs out to be protected/ saved. To save them, cruise ships have to sail. RCG, out of the gate was in a better cash position than NCL but that doesn't mean troubled waters aren't ahead. Divesting Azamara was a red flag. I've argued elsewhere that a corporate survival strategy may be to hope that the EU and Asia, despite the apparent problems with vaccine roll-out in Western Europe, will feed revenue needs before North America. The cruise lines going in that direction would hurt us. The one wild card is the actual, not fantasy facts, circumstance that the vaccine brings sero-prevalence rates in North America, primarily in FL's ports, below 5% by early May. This might allow the cruise lines to work toward and actually meet the CDC's stated bars to cross. If that actually happens a late June, early July restart is possible. I'm not optimistic.
  24. This is not accurate as it is phrased. I'm not sure what you mean by "only good for people that have compromised immune systems.......," I assume you mean to keep immunocompromised persons out of the hospital. What you imply is that the vaccines have no effect on people with competent immune systems. Do I have this right? First, most people, regardless of age or immune status do not initially mount an immune response to SARS-2. For the naïve host, that host's immune system doesn't recognize SARS-2 as foreign until several days into the infection. After that, the innate immune system mounts a response, in varying degrees, recognizing that the virus cells are foreign. Immunocompromised hosts either by age or disease, take longer for recognition and response to occur. For most people, this interval is when COVID symptoms appear, primarily in the lungs, again in varying severity depending on the robustness of the hosts initial response to SARS-2. There are signaling cells (Specialized B-Cells and T-Cells) in the host (you) that then create an inflammatory response (cytokines among others) and stimulate the adaptive immune system to respond to the foreign viral cells. In some, the cytokine response can be so great, it worsens symptoms. In some cases, it does not occur at all (e.g., an immunocompromised host with AIDS or cancers that subdue the T and B cell response). A normal cytokine response has a positive effect on COVID-19 while allowing time for the adaptive immune system to produce specialized types of T and B cells that target the spike protein of the SARS-2 virus preventing it from attaching to human respiratory tract cells, reproducing and then eliminate it. The benefit of mRNA vaccines like Pfizer's and Moderna's already being used is that it primes the hosts innate immune system to recognize SARS-2 virus right away and stimulate an immediate innate and adaptive immune system response. The net effect is a reduced inflammatory response, a reduced time the virus is being hosted by you and a muted development of COVID symptoms - or, in the best case neither of these......you don't get sick at all This is a correct statement. In the context I presented above, you can see that when the SARS-2 virus infects the host, it's still a time dependent process where the virus is alive and reproducing in your body (you can still transmit it during this period). It tries to survive and resist getting killed by the hosts immune system. But now the immune system has been primed by a vaccine and the process of infection is greatly reduced in time. This equates to less of an inflammatory response and significantly reduced COVID symptoms. The trials that both manufacturers went through demonstrated the capacity of their vaccines to prevent serious COVID symptoms to a near 100% level. What these trials did not show was whether the vaccine reduced the transmission of the virus. The Israeli's have several studies underway to determine if the vaccines do, in fact, reduce transmission. The results made public indicate that they do - 33% after one dose and 70% after two. Caveats apply but this is very encouraging news. What does this mean to cruisers on a practical level?: If vaccinations end up being a pre-barding requirement, if you become infected on the cruise, you have a greatly reduced probability of developing serious COVID-19 symptoms or dying from it. All factors taken into consideration, I'd estimate that probability is < 1% of becoming infected and a near zero chance of dying. If you've been fully vaccinated you have a greater probability of serious injury or death in an accident on your way to the cruise port. Taken in the context of what I presented above, you might become infected on your cruise but you're' unlikely to develop symptoms anything worse than a cold or flu. Based on early studies in Israel, transmission appears to be reduced by up to 70% in fully vaccinated persons. Hope this clarifies important information about the mRNA vaccines currently being offered.
  25. Point taken. The AZ debacle in Europe is certainly problematic and supports your position. OTH, The US and Western Europe while very similar in terms of total population, are culturally dissimilar. One thing that characterizes the societies of most Western European nations is that, aside from Italy - an outlier generally except for the pandemic response - they trust their governments in the pandemic. They are more likely to comply with directed mitigation measures. Outside of Asia, Germany and Italy were the first countries to dip their toes in the cruising waters signaling a more accommodating public health environment when it comes to assessing the risks and benefits of allowing cruise ships to sail from their ports. Germans, before the most recent outbreaks, had their SARS-2 sero-prevalence rate down to around 3% - the government continues to deploy much more stringent mitigation members than North America, especially compared to the US, CA being an exception. Western European citizens are complying instead of protesting to the extent that US citizens are over the infringement of liberties that mask mandates represent. This leads me to speculate that Western Europe will achieve control of the virus faster than the US once vaccines become more readily available there - and they will. I predict this outcome even though the US appears to be racing ahead right now. We already know Asian nations are maybe a full year ahead of the US in a return to normal economic activity. Governments there will probably be more accommodating of cruise industry operations from Western European and Asian ports. Occam's Razor solution to generating revenue for the cruise industry is therefore to send ships, en masse, to these ports - the more the better.
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