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Rackham

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Everything posted by Rackham

  1. Royal's currently trading at a $282.25 premium over Carnival. Royal's corporate has all but said (or maybe they've directly said, it's been a while) that their goal is 100% of vacation dollars spent with them versus land based resorts from their customers. I don't see the loyalty program going anywhere with this goal and their performance both in terms of revenue and on the stock market. The loyalty program might be modified to keep the benefits worthwhile or workable (for example, a crowded lounge is good for no one), but it's not going to be eliminated. On the most recent earnings call, it was mentioned that loyalty program members spend more than non-members with the company. As much stuff as the upper loyalty program tiers provide to guests, the program gets wallets open and client stickiness at a level that's relatively cheap for the company. Additionally, you'll notice Royal doesn't have a brand ambassador the way Carnival does. They don't need one with how much good will and enthusiasm people generally have for the brand thanks, in part, to said loyalty program.
  2. You're welcome. I can't see Royal doing away with smaller ships completely. But until recently, they haven't had any reason to start developing a new, smaller than Quantum class ship either. With other lines now getting into the mega ship game, Royal is going to need smaller vessels to keep or expand port of call options lest they find that there's no berths available when and where they need them for their fleet size. There's itineraries which will only work on smaller ships which have high marketability and that Royal would be able to charge a nice premium for on a new class (i.e. Alaska, Norway). Plus, one nasty hurricane season could take out enough infrastructure in the Caribbean to limit ports of call, which would go double for mega ships. Smaller ships increases the likelihood of being able to port somewhere. Lastly, it provides Royal flexibility with their deployments if they want to, or need to, try something due to market conditions. I'm predicting 6-8 Discovery class ships to replace the 4 Vision class, 4 Radiance class, and 5 Voyager class ships in the fleet. They're not going to do a 1 to 1 replacement, but they also don't need to.
  3. Possibly. Some Discovery class rumors have the ship around Voyager sizing, but slightly shorter in height, to be able to pass through the Panama Canal and under the Bridge of the Americas so it could be squat enough to make port in Tampa. Edit: That'd also make the class short enough to pass under the Lions Gate Bridge in Vancouver which gives the rumor some support (at least in ship height). Edit Edit: Royal could also move in remaining Vision class ships as others are decommissioned.
  4. The numbers, by current fleet class maximum capacity (from their Fleet Guide). Vision - 10,100 Radiance - 10,187 Voyager - 20,366 Freedom - 14,035 Oasis - 39,583 (97% of the capacity of Vision, Radiance, and Voyager classes combined.) Icon (inc. Star) - 15,028 I'm not taking the time to add the numbers on Quantum. They're new enough not to be up for replacement any time soon. Oasis and Icon classes together, not including ships ordered which aren't Star, have essentially the capacity of Vision, Radiance, Voyager, and Freedom classes combined. Considering only capacity, Royal could scrap 3 Vision or Radiance class ships (or one Voyager plus a Vison or Radiance class) every time a new Oasis or Icon class is launched and have approximately the same capacity across the fleet.
  5. The earned rewards points never expire, but the tier points expire after two years. They're really introducing two separate systems which points are earned in both through spend. The real kicker here is their loyalty reward tiers are already not great, and with the required ongoing spend, there's really no point in trying to attain status under the new system. You're better off purchasing their Faster to the Fun package (their take on The Key) than dropping the money to hit the higher tiers.
  6. Not surprised. Carnival could've redone their loyalty program benefits to fix the issues they're seeing and chose not to. If it was really about too many people having priority boarding, debarkation, tendering, etc. Carnival could've taken the perk away from Platinum (required 75 points to obtain). They also could've redone the program to mimic RCCL's and NCL's offerings and shuffled/eliminate problematic perks due to number of passengers who can access. Instead, they've chosen to switch to a rewards program with a similar reward structure as their current loyalty program. So somebodies are thinking it'll be better for the company long term.
  7. If it's all about the Benjamins, here's what related cruise line stocks are up to (and another data point on why Royal is probably not considering something similar). Carnival: $23.83 Norwegian: $18.90 Disney: $118.13 Royal: [drumroll, please] $272.28 Carnival might have the most ships, but Royal is printing the bucks.
  8. I really don't see Royal reducing the benefits, past what's required for benefits to stay as benefits (i.e. limitations on lounge and Coast Kitchen access due to loyalty member numbers aboard), or switching to a rewards based system as management understands they're in the leisure hospitality sector. People might stay in hotels or fly multiple times for work per month, but only a fraction are spending an equivalent time annually aboard cruise ships. And while people like to point out that they've been on sailings with over 50% of the ship being Diamond and higher, those cruises are outliers. The average Royal Caribbean sailing has 50%-60% new to the brand and less than 10% Diamond and up. I've been on full ships where the top tier event almost didn't happen due to number of Pins aboard. So about those loyalty benefits? Rewards programs work on frequent spending on the product as a draw to use said product over the competition. Stay with a hotel chain frequently for work then you'll have comped nights for vacation. Buy your burgers through the app, get one free in the future. Basically, you're choosing one brand now, because you'll going to buy the product anyway, so you might as well get a little kickback in the future. Thus, keeping spending with one airline, hotel chain, or burger joint. However, most people don't cruise frequently enough for reward points to have meaning. I haven't looked through the T&Cs for Carnival's new program, but the points for the average cruiser isn't going to encourage turning around and booking another cruise with the company. Is earning enough points for a comped steak dinner or a six pack of soda per sailing going to encourage people to Choose Fun over the competition? And with how status levels are now resetting every two years, will people be encouraged to work their way up in the program (and this is completely ignoring the benefits offered which are underwhelming). Or will it encourage people to, figuratively speaking, jump ship for MSC, NCL, or Royal when they notice their programs offer rewards just for showing up and you don't have to requalify for a status level over a two year term? Royal's C&A loyalty scheme, as we've seen, encourages people to book another cruise to get to Diamond. And then Diamond+. Then Pinnacle. Then becomes a $#%% match for some with acquiring the points to be named in the top three cruisers aboard the ship. People like perks and membership in exclusive clubs. Reaching Diamond with Royal is kinda like a Club 33 membership with Disney. I ran the numbers a few years ago, and cruise fare only needed to be increased about $20 pp to fully cover Royal's cost with the benefits. That's cheap for the type of brand loyalty the benefits are providing them. Which cruise line are you going to look at first when wanting to book? The one that you're familiar with, which meets your vacationing needs, and gives you the most bang for your buck. The C&A benefits makes it an easy decision to start, and possibly end, with Royal. The stickiness with customer retention has to be huge. Even if someone is only cruising once a year, or every other year, or once a decade, once they're getting hooked in the program, the odds of them booking Royal has seriously increased thanks to keeping loyalty status. And then there's the grass roots marketing coming from Royal's cruisers thanks to this loyalty. Co-worker asking which line they should take their kids on over break? Well, Royal Caribbean, of course. Let me explain why. Friend looking for a cruise with great live entertainment? Royal has music throughout the ship and full on productions in the main theater. Family wanting to cruise for the great food? Try Celebrity. I dunno. Haven't sailed with the yet.
  9. You're not. Their loyalty program has always been kinda meh compared to Royal's.
  10. I'm kinda surprised with the changes. Figured if Carnival was going to overhaul their loyalty program, they'd make it more competitive with Royal's, not give reasons for Very Important Fun People to try other lines. They didn't even give current VIFPs status reciprocity within the Carnival family of brands so if they are unhappy with the change, they're encouraged to take their money to another Carnival owned cruise line. Wonder if Royal's marketing department is cooking something up to lure 'em over? Boldest Ships. Royal Perks. No Expiration. Come seek the Royal Caribbean.
  11. Royal's probably like "Challenge Accepted" and now we're going to get the first completely indoor waterpark at sea, the Aquaplex.
  12. Since it's Royal's port now, they could work the schedule so that Oasis/Icon class ships dock at specific slots, to act as a windbreak/wavebreak, first, then smaller craft arrive for docking.
  13. I was curious, but not enough to do my own research. The attached PDF is several deep research responses from Perplexity. Links to its sources are included. Summary: Basically, Oasis class can tender, but they really prefer not to. Port: Can it handle Oasis-class based on depth (and ignoring all other considerations)? Ensenada: Yes San Diego: No, but possible with dredging. San Francisco: No Catalina Island: Yes, if Royal's able to cut through the related red tape related to tendering at Catalina. Puerto Vallarta: Yes, but would need high tide to be sure of making port. Vancouver: Yes, high tide only. Honolulu: Yes Astoria: Yes Mazatlán: Potentially. A new cruise terminal has been approved which would increase the depth at port and add enough port infrastructure to handle Oasis. Cabo San Lucas: Yes, if Royal was willing to tender Oasis class. West Coast Port Capabilities for Large Cruise Ships.pdf
  14. I've been swamped at work recently and mentally haven't been wanting to do research once home. So here's the complete collection of transcribed Bionic Bar drink recipes from Odyssey for the moment. The PDF file has bookmarks for each cocktail section and cocktail recipe. Bionic Bar Cocktail Recipes from Odyssey of the Seas 2025.pdf
  15. Per Reddit, "I’m on Utopia [sailing from Florida] and the Schooner Bar has $15 drinks now." Edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/royalcaribbean/comments/1ktlnan/15_drinks_now/
  16. https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2025/04/global-ports-holding-big-investments-in-cruise-port-portfolio/ Tarragona Cruise Port (Spain): GPH’s newly inaugurated sustainable terminal at Moll de Balears, a 2,200m² facility designed with energy efficiency and self-sufficiency in mind. Alicante Cruise Port (Spain): A highly anticipated terminal modernization project, scheduled for completion by April 2025, focused on improving passenger flow and port experience. Las Palmas Cruise Port (Canary Islands): Completion of a sustainable terminal, set to accommodate the world’s largest cruise ships and serve over 1.6 million passengers annually, with completion expected by September 2025. Antigua Cruise Port (Caribbean): A substantial upland development project, which will include a state-of-the-art cruise terminal and expansion for new retail stores, launched in February 2025. Nassau Cruise Port (The Bahamas): An exciting pool project and yacht marina expansion plan, which is set for completion by March 2026. San Juan Cruise Port (Puerto Rico): A significant infrastructure enhancement programe, which began in September 2024, with an additional funding provided for Pier 3 upgrades. Saint Lucia (Caribbean): Investments include significant berth enhancements, a new boardwalk, and the creation of a Fishermen’s Village at Banannes Bay. Additionally, Saint Lucia Cruise Port will construct a new tender dock and upland facilities at Soufriere. Looks like Antigua might be getting something which could handle Royal's largest without Royal investment. This might be playing a role in not moving forward with their project at this time.
  17. Royal is probably waiting to see how their current beach club and Lelepa projects turn out before committing to something new. They might also be watching how other lines giant ship game impacts the ports available to Royal.
  18. Here's one of the better overview videos I've seen on slot play. Cowboy Slots, Why you LOSE at Slots How to Fix it! Demonstrated by a Slot Tech ️ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmL95EfLRCY Basic slot literacy with links to additional videos which relate to what's introduced in the video. From the same channel about cruise ship slots, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_dwe5Ha2UA
  19. Could be an error. Could be $22 for Hot Pockets.
  20. Also https://www.youtube.com/@RoyalCaribbeanBlog/search?query=dining package .
  21. After a very quick itinerary search, here's two which would become Perfect Day combos after PDMX opens. Just need a Labadee stop for the full Caribbean platter. Edit: It appears Perfect Day Mexico would be doable on a 4 night itinerary from New Orleans based on distance and average ship speeds. Day 1: New Orleans Day 2: Day at Sea Day 3: Perfect Day Mexico Day 4: Day at Sea Day 5: New Orleans However, it doesn't look like 4 nights out of Galveston would happen due to length of time they'd get at PDMX.
  22. Drive time to New Orleans is only 2 hours from Mobile. https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruises?search=departurePort:MSY&country=USA&hp_search_widget=home
  23. Apparently Carnival is a minority partner in the Skagway port project with Survey Point being the primary. Basically, it sounds like Carnival was concerned someone else would buy a stake, who doesn't have any large ship experience, and wanted to make sure the port would be ready for whatever they want to send there. https://akcruise.org/new-owners-already-at-work-in-skagway/ https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2018/06/carnival-corp-acquires-port-railroad-and-retail-operations-in-alaska/
  24. Can't imagine any non-Royal Caribbean Group mainstream cruise line, and even a few of the premiums, wanting to port at Costa Maya once PDM is open and shuffling their guests past this.
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