You check the weather forecast before your cruise and suddenly your excitement turns into dread: rain every day.
While it looks like your Caribbean vacation is about to be washed out before it even begins, the truth is it probably won't. That scary-looking forecast doesn't mean it will rain all day, or even for every long. In fact, it's more likely the rain will miss you and end up with plenty of sunshine.
The thing most people don’t realize is Caribbean weather forecasts are famously misleading.
Before you panic, here's some reassurance why that "rain forecast for the entire cruise" rant is probably not as bad as it looks.
Why Caribbean forecasts almost always show rain
Weather forecasting relies on models, and the models in the Caribbean are not nearly as sophisticated or well-developed as those in the United States.
Part of the reason for this is because there are less weather stations around the Caribbean. Many countries don't have the financial resources to buy a radar station and that means there's far less weather radar information to feed into models.
I'm not saying the weather forecasts are useless, but don't take them as the gospel truth for what to expect.
Rain is common in the tropics
As someone that lives in Florida, I know that when there's rain in the forecast, it's rarely an all-day affair.
When you get into the warm months of the year, rain storms tend to pop-up and develop as the day goes on. Warm ocean water + humidity = pop-up storms.
That means you start off the day sunny, see clouds in the afternoon, and experience a quick downpour. Or not at all. Tropical rain storms are usually small cells that move quickly and may hit one beach, but not another.
Even if the forecast is accurate that it will rain, it's doubtful the rain will last very long. Sometimes it's a few minutes, sometimes an hour or so. But most of the day is likely to be rain-free.
That forecast is a percentage chance, not a guarantee
Something else you should look at in any weather forecast is the percentage chance of rain.
It may list rain every day of your cruise, but that doesn't mean it's a guarantee. Often the percentage listed is far less than 100%, and that means forecasters aren't really sure. They see the potential for precipitation, but it's unclear when or where exactly it will rain and for how long.
So meteorologists use a percentage in their forecast to handicap the likelihood of rain. Even a 70% or higher chance or rain may result in no rain at all.
Weather apps show rain icons even if the chance is small. A 30–40% chance of rain may mean a short shower somewhere nearby.
This is one of those situations as a cruiser you need to have a "glass is half full" approach and hope for the best.
Why cruise ships are good at avoiding bad weather
On sea days, you have the best chance to avoid the worst rain.
Cruise ship Captains can reroute around large storm systems. That's not to say they'll avoid every rain cell, but they will seek a better route if there's a big system out there. In fact, Royal Caribbean has its own meteorologist to help predict bad weather and keep ships away from it.
In the case of a hurricane, Royal Caribbean could re-arrange ports or change itineraries. They won't do that for a regular rain storm, but it's important to know major storms have contingency plans.
How to read a cruise weather forecast correctly
Before you text your family your "cruise is ruined", here's what I'd look at in any forecast.
Start by looking at hourly forecasts, not daily icons. If your ship is going to depart by mid afternoon, you could miss the worst of the rain.
Next, check precipitation percentage, not just symbols. They're estimates and anything less than 50% is probably not worth changing any plans around.
Lastly, even if it does rain, expect short bursts of rain, not constant storms.
Prepare for rain, but expect sunshine
My advice is understand that, yes, it could rain. But it probably won't be a washout.
Plan for a fun time ashore and enjoy your day. However, if it does rain, don't let it stop you in your tracks.
Heck, if there's no lighting, hop in the pool or ocean and embrace being wet while you're already wet!
If you have plans on land, packing rain ponchos might be prudent. Or just duck under cover and let it all pass.
If your cruise is going to Alaska, the weather changes so quickly there that rain is likely. But it usually moves on soon enough.
