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Over/Under Guesstimates for Cruises Departing from American Ports


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My take is that things are so fluid right now, so many moving parts, that it is really tough to predict sailings by ship/date. I feel reasonably confident that ships will sail in July out of US ports but the first ship out of the gate in July is extremely hard to predict. Galveston and the four Florida ports list the following July Sailings .....

Galveston will have sailings. Liberty of the Seas is on Galveston's schedule to depart July 4th. 2 Carnival ships go on the 2st and 3rd.

Port Canaveral will have sailings. Mariner sails on the 2nd preceded by two Carnival and one Disney sailing.

Port Everglades will have sailings. Celebrity dominates sailings there with 9 cruises between Edge and Equinox.

Miami: Navigator and Symphony have multiple sailings scheduled in July

Tampa: Brilliance has 5 sailings in July. 

I got these port schedules from the link below. I follow Celebrity closely. If you look at the cruise mapper function I can see Edge and Equinox right about where I would expect them to be to begin preparations for sailings from PEV in July. You can do the same sort of detective work for your favorite RCL ships. I took a brief look at RCL because they have more ships scheduled from TX/FL ports and I see the same thing. They are where I'd expect them to be in preparation for revenue sailings.

https://www.cruisemapper.com/ports-in-east-coast-usa-and-canada-new-england-6 

I'm thinking that there is no way these ships would be milling about close to the ports where there are scheduled sailings if RCG didn't have a pretty good idea that these July sailings were going to happen. I also think that Bailey's "two paths to a restart" - or with/without vaccinations required weighs heavily to the vaccinations required pathway. That is because if RCL and Celebrity require vaccines, they avoid non-rev test sailings required by the CDC. I'd think those would be something to be avoided if revenue generation is a top priority. I could also see a hybrid schedule where some ships will do the test sailings then sail w/o vaccine requirements and some won't and by default require vaccines to sail.

Also having an impact on port operations in FL, just today Governor Desantis rescinded all his EO's issued under the authority he obtained by declaring a PHE.  What this does is essentially cancel state mandated mitigation measures fully opening schools, parks and recreation facilities and freeing venues to operate as they choose. Businesses can still mandate mitigation measures such as spacing and masks but what will happen is that businesses that continue to do that won't have customers when people can go elsewhere without having to deal with them. We may not see masks required during boarding in FL under this action by Desantis but I'll be surprised if mask requirements working your way through the cruise terminal are waived.

I feel pretty confident July sailings are happening with a slowly expanding schedule for more and ore ships as proof of concept is obtained. From the looks of the port scheudles I investigated, I'd say RCL/Celebrity will be sailing from US ports in the first week of July ..... caveat, if everything falls into place. I think it will.

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On 5/2/2021 at 2:23 PM, smokeybandit said:

Right once the crews are stateside, getting them vaccinated isn't a big deal. But how quickly can they get them here based on the ongoing covid issues in other countries. Even the Philippines is having its worst covid surge so far (though it seems to be waning) and that would by far be a bad thing for crewing a ship.

Sources point to several thousand have passed through recently and more currently. How many for sure  I can't even guess. I do know they were vaccinating heavy in Miami today...

As for my guess... ? CDC says mud July? Why argue? July 21... 😄

 

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3 hours ago, deep1 said:

As for my guess... ? CDC says mud July? Why argue? July 21...

 

2 hours ago, cruisellama said:

At this point, timeline for crew positioning (vaccination and quarantine) is in the window to support a mid-Jul go.

Not saying either of you are wrong - everyone of us is speculating -  but, just wondering, what are you basing this on?

For months, posters have been echoing cruise line execs saying 60d from warm storage to operational. As far as we know, the ships that I mentioned in my post above that have first week in July sailings from Texas/FL ports are in a warm storage circumstance and, again as I pointed out are milling about smartly near those ports from which they are scheduled to sail first week in July.  With CDC restart guidance seemingly shaping up last week in April, a first week in July restart seems entirely possible. 

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I think the 60d estimate was from the days of no vaccines.  Just as we know a lot more now and there are many different thoughts on virus tactics, the cruise lines have been learning and changing.  They have experience now operating cruises.  We saw them load material months ago now.  It appears Navigator at a minimum is getting batches of crew every few days.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the clock doesn't start upon the big announcement we are all waiting for.  The clock has already started and they are already spinning up the machine, 60 days isn't the time needed anymore, at least for some ships.

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10 hours ago, twangster said:

I think the 60d estimate was from the days of no vaccines.  Just as we know a lot more now and there are many different thoughts on virus tactics, the cruise lines have been learning and changing.  They have experience now operating cruises.  We saw them load material months ago now.  It appears Navigator at a minimum is getting batches of crew every few days.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the clock doesn't start upon the big announcement we are all waiting for.  The clock has already started and they are already spinning up the machine, 60 days isn't the time needed anymore, at least for some ships.

I agree. Everything has already started to move.  I believe that we will see cruising from US ports by mid July at the latest, even from Florida ports. 

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12 hours ago, twangster said:

The clock has already started and they are already spinning up the machine, 60 days isn't the time needed anymore, at least for some ships.

On Navigator they have begun dry aging the ribeyes for Chops. 
If a new premium beef jerky appetizer is offered, we will know Royal got impulsive. 

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3 hours ago, AlmondFarmer said:

On Navigator they have begun dry aging the ribeyes for Chops. 
If a new premium beef jerky appetizer is offered, we will know Royal got impulsive. 

...and when they start decanting the wines at Vintages on Symphony, we'll be on our way soon after. 

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So Symphony is on the way to Cadiz for her scheduled dry dock. Thoughts on if this would affect the possible July restart? Wondering if the dry dock would hinder the restart of crew, vaccinations and such? Ship is due to dock on May 20th in Cadiz.  Booked on July 31st sailing and desperate to know the details from Royal!!!  LOL

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26 minutes ago, JennieUnderwood said:

So Symphony is on the way to Cadiz for her scheduled dry dock. Thoughts on if this would affect the possible July restart? Wondering if the dry dock would hinder the restart of crew, vaccinations and such? Ship is due to dock on May 20th in Cadiz.  Booked on July 31st sailing and desperate to know the details from Royal!!!  LOL

I'm not sure any of us know enough details to guess.  

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1 hour ago, JennieUnderwood said:

So Symphony is on the way to Cadiz for her scheduled dry dock. Thoughts on if this would affect the possible July restart? Wondering if the dry dock would hinder the restart of crew, vaccinations and such? Ship is due to dock on May 20th in Cadiz.  Booked on July 31st sailing and desperate to know the details from Royal!!!  LOL

Details are scarce. Tea leaves aren't.

Royal is doing something unique with their dry-dock schedule. There will be 4 RCL ships in Cadiz over the next 6 weeks, Symphony is one of them. The reason for this accelerated dry-dock schedule is to get these ships ready for continuous revenue sailings this summer without interruption, and attendant loss of revenue associated with dry docking.

The press is on to get crews and ships ready. The chatter about crew movement, vaccinations being given to crews in most FL ports and the widespread re-openings going on in FL and nationally, all point to a return to pre-pandemic activity in the coming months. July seems about right to me given the President's comments on get togethers on the 4th.

A late July sailing on Symphony seems almost assured, given the tea leaves. I think as far as the actual restart date, it is hard to identify which ship will sail out of a US port in the first 2 weeks of July. I'd say the second two weeks sailings are solid.

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43 minutes ago, twangster said:

I'm not sure any of us know enough details to guess.

Best part of guesses, knowledge only increases their accuracy but is not required. 
 

That said, my “guess” is the dry dock will not affect July restart and crew will receive their vaccinations while taking in some well deserved R&R on a Spanish beach. 

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23 hours ago, JeffB said:

 

Not saying either of you are wrong - everyone of us is speculating -  but, just wondering, what are you basing this on?

For months, posters have been echoing cruise line execs saying 60d from warm storage to operational. As far as we know, the ships that I mentioned in my post above that have first week in July sailings from Texas/FL ports are in a warm storage circumstance and, again as I pointed out are milling about smartly near those ports from which they are scheduled to sail first week in July.  With CDC restart guidance seemingly shaping up last week in April, a first week in July restart seems entirely possible. 

Most of the fleet is in pretty ready condition...  Whole lot different than cold storage...  Little more complicated than just add water but not by much. More crew already aboard many vessels than one might think. They have been in restaff mode also for quite some time. Though the  CDC only gave  details this week. My guess is the insiders of the industry have anticipated and we are already well in that 60-90 day  window of getting pieces back in place. I saw some activity last September that was short lived. Then recently seen much larger scale activity  in more places. Evidently Miami was doing mass Vaccinations  the last few days. I have heard  rumor of the hotels along rt 84 being filled with staff in Lauderdale and have some pretty solid info that Miami is also crawling with staff both at hotels and their own RCCL owned facilities.  I'd imagine, beyond vaccinations, training is underway for new protocols, rehearsals for new shows and other stuff already well under way. 

 

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One they complete the vaccine rollout and fine-tune crew training, things can get rolling pretty quickly. Assuming the ships will sail at reduced capacity, when and how will RCL leadership determine which passengers will be notified if their individual booking is cancelled to accommodate capacity reductions?

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45 minutes ago, JimnKathy said:

One they complete the vaccine rollout and fine-tune crew training, things can get rolling pretty quickly. Assuming the ships will sail at reduced capacity, when and how will RCL leadership determine which passengers will be notified if their individual booking is cancelled to accommodate capacity reductions?

I'm thinking that the "throttling" of passenger numbers won't be done as an "after thought". Pretty sure they are sand bagging availability  at the reservation level. On accepting so many bookings at this time. I've been seeing a number of listings just disappear recently. I assume  that is a result of being at the "sold out level" for that sailing. I'm seeing certain classes and cabin locations on other sailings showing sold out. I again think that means sold out for the reduced capacity numbers. Not over all. 

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