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For everyone flying into NJ on Friday, TS Michael will likely be here


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Just saw an alert about Tropical Storm Michael, which has formed in the Gulf down by Panama. Slated to hit FL and AL Wednesday, then swing northeast through the Carolinas and Virginia before heading back out to sea on Friday. Doesn’t look at the moment like it should impact departure of the Oct 13 Bermuda sailing, as by Saturday afternoon it’s expected to be well out into the northern Atlantic. But anyone flying or driving in Friday, especially from the south, may want to allow some extra travel time.

cfd_2341235dayconenolineandwind.jpeg

As always with these early charts, the track could change a lot between now and Friday. But it’s been holding to this rough path the last 24 hours, just the speed of it has slowed a bit from initially being around NJ mid or late Thursday to now being more early Friday.

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Yippee !  Maybe we will have to stay in the Atlantic a few extra days !  I never have that kind of luck !

I will say, this trip to Bermuda was the roughest we have ever experienced and we’ve done this itin a lot.  Last night there were barf bags posted around the ship. I haven’t seen that since the infamous Bayonne repositioning cruise on Explorer a few years ago.  I can’t imagine it being much worse going back but it’s always rougher going home than going out b/c you’re normally sailing into the wind on the return trip. No idea what the hurricane might do to the normal wind pattern.  Guess we’ll just have to find out...but it would be damned shame if we had to extend our cruise by a couple of days.  NOT

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2 hours ago, WAAAYTOOO said:

Yippee !  Maybe we will have to stay in the Atlantic a few extra days !  I never have that kind of luck !

Man, I'm not sure whether to give that whole post a "sad" or "like" reaction. Sad to hear you had a really rough sailing to Bermuda, but liking the thought you might get an extra day or two in Bermuda or at sea (more likely the latter so Royal doesn't have to pay extra port fees).

Here's the latest live forecast map from the National Hurricane Center; this seems to update automatically as the model is updated (currently shows Oct 8, 2 PM EDT, but earlier today it showed Oct 8, 11 AM EDT). As of the 11 AM and 2 PM updates, the storm will be back on the ocean and pretty much covering the DelMarVa area on 8 AM Friday, and off the coast of Nova Scotia on Saturday at 8 AM. Given it's updating as new data comes in, the actual image could change as we get closer to Friday / Saturday.

Man, I hope this doesn't impact @twangster's "Snowbird Migration" cruise -- they're sailing out of Quebec tomorrow (boarding today, but get an overnight stay) and will be hitting either Portland, ME or Boston, MA around the time the storm is off the NJ coast. They could be held up a day waiting for it to go past into the northeast Atlantic before sailing down to Port Canaveral.

094401_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Edited by JLMoran
Discovered the map is live, updated the post to note this
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30 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

covering the DelMarVa area on 8 AM Friday,

Yes, they are already saying very heavy rain and winds here on Thursday and Friday. @WAAAYTOOO, we had some serious mini  hurricane in May too on our way to Bermuda, barf bags everywhere even the crew weren't allowed outside. You may just be on Lady G longer than planned if Michael does swing up here in Delmarva! Oh darn, more days on a ship! LOL  I hope it's not that way anymore for your guys.  and of course @JLMoran, and @twangster, hopefully he will be way out to sea for both of you too! 

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Spoke to @twangster. His sailing doesn't get to Bar Harbor until the 15th, so he'll slip in behind Michael after he's gone out to sea. Unless it shifts north, probably won't even get any major waves or winds.

@ellcee, @Broons77, and I should all be fine as well. With the storm cleared out Friday and up in Canada early Saturday, the only impact I could see on our Saturday sailaway is if the ship gets held up coming back from the 9-night Bahamas / Caribbean CA/NE sailing she's doing right now. Hopefully won't happen, but will have to see.

Edit: Just bought the MarineTraffic app and discovered Anthem is currently sailing from Portland to Bar Harbor. Not sure if / how that changes any decision the captain will make about whether to bring her home on schedule. And I'm sure any such decision won't be made before Wednesday at the earliest, anyway.

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I'm thinking @WAAAYTOOO will be back with no issues since Thursday morning Michael will still be way south (like Georgia) ---

As for bumpy rides, I would hope nothing like what we dealt with last year going over, then under Hurricane Jose --- I'd just as soon not have to deal with that again.

As for Michael, I think the real challenge will be for those boarding on Thursday, the 11th, for the 9-nighter --- that could be a fun ride down the Chesapeake.

Either way, praying for calm seas .... we're 17 Days out and counting until it's our turn on Lady G.

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9 hours ago, JLMoran said:

@ellcee, @Broons77, and I should all be fine as well. With the storm cleared out Friday and up in Canada early Saturday, the only impact I could see on our Saturday sailaway is if the ship gets held up coming back from the 9-night Bahamas / Caribbean CA/NE sailing she's doing right now. Hopefully won't happen, but will have to see.

I've got a mother in law going with us on this cruise who is sure no one is coming home alive.  Now thanks to Michael, she has a hook to hang that hat on.

I was wondering about how Anthem was going to track back from the current cruise given the storm. I would think her only real option would be to  hug the coast around the Cape pretty tightly, as there's no way she's fitting through the Cape Cod Canal.

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North Atlantic out of Greenland on an 8,000 GT cargo ship converted to carry passengers. Cabins were all the way forward.  Smooth as glass down a fjord but once we hit open water it was rough.  My head was lifted off the pillow and then slammed back down.  

People who are green with sea sickness really hate you if your are not.  If looks could kill...

We'll see if my Adventure repo cruise turns into an Adventure.  Loaded with Diamonds and Pinnacles.  High degree of whining already, SeaPass cards outside of room means no access to Diamond lounge until 1pm.  Who knew a cruise could be 'ruined' 5 minutes after boarding?   (No lounge access).  Wait until we hit Michael in the North Atlantic.  Maybe the Diamond lounge will be empty finally.  

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Latest update to the map has narrowed down the cone on the east coast, to the point where the storm center is no longer even likely to touch NJ. Not to say it won't still impact the seas north and south and bring lots of rain on Friday, but it's already looking a bit more promising.

Better still is that the storm will be on the coast around 1 AM on Friday; that should be plenty early for the bulk of the storm to get clear of the eastern seaboard and leave Anthem with a clear path home on her final sea day of that CA/NE trip (she's currently docked in Halifax). I would guess that at worst, maybe after leaving port on Thursday they'll stay close to where they are, going slow or just waiting around somewhere, to keep clear of the worst of the weather, and then they'll ramp up the engines when they get an all-clear from their meteorologist and make up the time while slipping behind what's left of the storm.

But, I'm neither captain nor navigator, and they're the ones making the hard calls. I'll continue to hope for the best while keeping my eyes open for an email from Royal later in the week, should they decide passenger safety and comfort would be better served by coming home a day late. Because even if that happens, I'll still be boarding the ship and will still have four days of vacation to enjoy.

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