The Sudden Reduction of Half of RC's Fleet

[Thumper44]

Sorry for the click-bait style topic, but the 13 oldest ships in the current RC fleet were built in less than 8 years, almost 30 years ago.  Which means that these ships are going to reach their expected end-of-service dates just as rapidly as they were built. That's the four remaining Vision class ships, all of the Voyager class, and all of the Radiance class.

If the Discovery project starts producing ships by 2029 (When Voyager otS turns 30), I could see a one-to-one replacement of the five Voyager class ships.  But that would still leave the fleet with 8 fewer ships than what we have right now.

Do you think the Discovery project will produce more than 5-6 ships (perhaps a dozen built at a rate of three ships every two years)?  Do you think Royal is ok with a fleet of 20 or fewer ships?  Does the fleet get augmented with new builds from older classes (more Quantum, Oasis, or ships from sister lines' classes).  Will Royal ever buy a ship from another line (like the Disney bought the Global Dream) to augment the fleet?

[ChessE4]

I expect older ships to last and itinerary changes to optimize the fleet as ships are replaced.  If Royal continues to grow, I believe they will acquire the vessels they need, even if pre-owned.

[Thumper44]

1 hour ago, ChessE4 said:

If Royal continues to grow, I believe they will acquire the vessels they need, even if pre-owned.

Wouldn't that be fascinating?  Half of my interest in this topic is because I'm a sucker for naval architecture and ships in general.  I waste way too much time imagining how I would remodel another cruise line's ship if it were bought by RC.

[smokeybandit]

RC has 4 known ships on order, bringing to a total of 4 Icon and 7 Oasis. Discovery surely will be 4+ ships. Let's say that's 8 more new ships between 2025 and 2032.

 

I would think there's room for another Icon as well.

I could see an accelerated schedule for the first 2 Discovery ships to retire Grandeur and Rhapsody. Another clue to their demise will be if RC does not put Baltimore back on the schedule for Summer 2027.

The net total of the fleet will continue to grow.
 

[Thumper44]

7 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

I would think there's room for another Icon as well.

Icon #5 and #6 were both optioned in 2024, so they could both happen in the time frame.  So I could see ten new ships (Icon #2-6, Oasis #7, Discovery #1-4) between 2025 and 2032 (10 ships added in eight years).  But whenever the aforementioned ships retire, and if they retire at the same rate they entered service, that will be 13 ships subtracted in about eight years).  

So maybe it's something like a 3+ ship deficit by the mid-2030's, maybe 25 ships instead of the 30 ships we'll have by fall of 2026.  The three Freedom class ships will hit age 30 in the mid to late 2030's.  

I think all these ships can do 30+ years with Royal, but they do have to retire eventually.

[Thumper44]

7 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

The net total of the fleet will continue to grow.

That's what I want.  Maintain around 30 ships, maybe more!

My personal hope is that the Discovery project is going to be huge, like 10-12 ships.  Presumably this is from Meyer Werft in Germany (who built the Quantum class) or possibly Chantiers de L'Atlantique in France (who built the last several Oasis class).  Maybe both companies will be involved.

Meyer Turku in Finland (they build Icon) is also supposed to be working on a climate-neutral ship design projected for 2035.  I'm guessing that they build six to ten Icons and then switch to the newer design about a decade from now.

If that many new-design ship orders is too ambitious, I think another Quantum Ultra like Odyssey of the Seas would be great.  And order a couple new Edge-class ships while you're at it; Celebrity won't mind! 

[twangster]

Why maintain a fleet of 30 ships when you can sail with just as many berths with fewer ships in the fleet?

That's 30 captains and staff captains, 30 sets of bridge officers and 30 hotel directors, all high paid salary positions.  Do more with less.

Royal's biggest problem is selling off the older inefficient ships while avoiding selling them to a competitor who will buy a ship at a fraction of a cost and compete with Royal in the Bahamas and Caribbean where Royal makes bank.  Cordella was a nice fit as they sail only in India.  No overlap.  TUI wants new ships for the same reasons why Royal does.  So for now it remains optimal to sail the old crud into the ground while carrying passengers and generating lower profits but avoiding giving a competitor the means to take business away for the price of a song.      

[Vancity Cruiser]

7 hours ago, Thumper44 said:

That's what I want.  Maintain around 30 ships, maybe more!

My personal hope is that the Discovery project is going to be huge, like 10-12 ships.  Presumably this is from Meyer Werft in Germany (who built the Quantum class) or possibly Chantiers de L'Atlantique in France (who built the last several Oasis class).  Maybe both companies will be involved.

Meyer Turku in Finland (they build Icon) is also supposed to be working on a climate-neutral ship design projected for 2035.  I'm guessing that they build six to ten Icons and then switch to the newer design about a decade from now.

If that many new-design ship orders is too ambitious, I think another Quantum Ultra like Odyssey of the Seas would be great.  And order a couple new Edge-class ships while you're at it; Celebrity won't mind! 

You are thinking in terms of ships, Royal is thinking in terms of berths. Like it or not, scale of economy is Royal's direction.

[smokeybandit]

Since RC is doing a Discovery class, they're definitely thinking of both, even if total berths is the leader over total ships.

[JimnKathy]

1 hour ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

You are thinking in terms of ships, Royal is thinking in terms of berths. Like it or not, scale of economy is Royal's direction.

I think we'll also see more ports upgraded over the next decade that can handle the larger ships, too.

The local economies need the injection of tourist dollars (especially in the 2nd/3rd world nations) and the large ships do a better job of bringing those needed travelers to their ports.

[Austin]

Per Serenade’s captain, radiance class will last much longer than you are predicting, partly because they use gas turbine engines.

[steverk]

1 hour ago, JimnKathy said:

I think we'll also see more ports upgraded over the next decade that can handle the larger ships, too.

The local economies need the injection of tourist dollars (especially in the 2nd/3rd world nations) and the large ships do a better job of bringing those needed travelers to their ports.

On the other hand, we se more and more ports balking at the number of cruise ship passengers and some are even restricting the size and number of ships in port. Economy of scale is great and all, but it's not all roses.

[twangster]

4 minutes ago, steverk said:

On the other hand, we se more and more ports balking at the number of cruise ship passengers and some are even restricting the size and number of ships in port. Economy of scale is great and all, but it's not all roses.

Absolutely. 

Royal is not about trying to be everything and go everywhere.  They are a mass market cruise line engineered by design to visit mass market ports that want need mass tourism.

Want boutique ports?  Sail Celebrity.  

[Thumper44]

2 hours ago, Austin said:

Per Serenade’s captain, radiance class will last much longer than you are predicting, partly because they use gas turbine engines.

That would be awesome.  I'm all for amplifying the Radiance class and getting several more years out of them.  One of my favorite cruises was Jewel to the Windward islands out of San Juan.  More of that please!

[Thumper44]

3 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Since RC is doing a Discovery class, they're definitely thinking of both, even if total berths is the leader over total ships.

Excellent point.  The Discovery project is the counter-point that says not everything is going the mega-ship route for RC.

I actually think a fleet of all-Icon & Oasis sized ships is strategically bad for RC.  It paints them into a corner, shutting them out of some markets (Alaska) that they don't necessarily want to give up on.

[mworkman]

One of the things to consider for the Discovery class ships is/if it will be used for the Alaska itinerary, open jaw for the land based itinerary and passage through the Panama Canal for transit for the off seasons. Whereas the bigger ships can still continue the closed jaw itinerary’s and when they replace the Radiance class ships.

[tjcruisers]

Don't think Royals cares is the old ships disappear, as some mentioned above Royal is thinking in berths. There was article I read back in 2021-2022 talking why Royal was going to recover far faster than Carnival, mostly had to do with the big ships. I don't remember the exact numbers but on the smaller ships they need about 85-90% just to break even, they don't make a profit until they get past that. On the Oasis (by extension Icon), once they hit around 42% capacity they hit break even point.  A couple new Icon class will more that make up for the lose of those other classes

[Rackham]

The numbers, by current fleet class maximum capacity (from their Fleet Guide).

Vision - 10,100

Radiance - 10,187

Voyager - 20,366

Freedom - 14,035

Oasis - 39,583 (97% of the capacity of Vision, Radiance, and Voyager classes combined.)

Icon (inc. Star) - 15,028

I'm not taking the time to add the numbers on Quantum. They're new enough not to be up for replacement any time soon.

Oasis and Icon classes together, not including ships ordered which aren't Star, have essentially the capacity of Vision, Radiance, Voyager, and Freedom classes combined. Considering only capacity, Royal could scrap 3 Vision or Radiance class ships (or one Voyager plus a Vison or Radiance class) every time a new Oasis or Icon class is launched and have approximately the same capacity across the fleet.

[JustMeJoe]

19 minutes ago, Rackham said:

Royal could scrap 3 Vision or Radiance class ships (or one Voyager plus a Vison or Radiance class) every time a new Oasis

True; but what do they do with ports like Tampa ?  Can't sail those big ones from there.  So do they give up on Tampa and similar embarkation ports ?

[Rackham]

47 minutes ago, JustMeJoe said:

True; but what do they do with ports like Tampa ?  Can't sail those big ones from there.  So do they give up on Tampa and similar embarkation ports ?

Possibly. Some Discovery class rumors have the ship around Voyager sizing, but slightly shorter in height, to be able to pass through the Panama Canal and under the Bridge of the Americas so it could be squat enough to make port in Tampa.

Edit: That'd also make the class short enough to pass under the Lions Gate Bridge in Vancouver which gives the rumor some support (at least in ship height).

Edit Edit: Royal could also move in remaining Vision class ships as others are decommissioned. 

[Thumper44]

1 hour ago, Rackham said:

The numbers, by current fleet class maximum capacity (from their Fleet Guide).

Once again, Rackham wins the internet today.  Way to go bringing in the numbers!  This is great analysis to bring the conversation.

[Thumper44]

One thing I'm hoping is that that financial expediency doesn't get the only vote in Royal's future.  Mega ships with maximum berths is certainly the most profitable model right now but cruising is about a certain type of travel how that makes the traveler feel.  So hopefully a successful cruise line will always have some capacity to spend money on the intangibles that make cruising special, even if that doesn't produce maximum profits.  

I think some of the more cynical comments in this thread (and on these message boards overall) are an indicator that some faithful cruisers have felt that the cruise industry may not quite be hitting that mark often enough.  If cruising starts to feel like how most of us are treated by the airlines, then people will spend their vacation money elsewhere.  And that's a shame because I think cruising is truly special, even when it's not absolutely perfect.

So here's to future ships being diverse and interesting and making the cruise experience something really special

[Rackham]

37 minutes ago, Thumper44 said:

One thing I'm hoping is that that financial expediency doesn't get the only vote in Royal's future.  Mega ships with maximum berths is certainly the most profitable model right now but cruising is about a certain type of travel how that makes the traveler feel.  So hopefully a successful cruise line will always have some capacity to spend money on the intangibles that make cruising special, even if that doesn't produce maximum profits.  

I think some of the more cynical comments in this thread (and on these message boards overall) are an indicator that some faithful cruisers have felt that the cruise industry may not quite be hitting that mark often enough.  If cruising starts to feel like how most of us are treated by the airlines, then people will spend their vacation money elsewhere.  And that's a shame because I think cruising is truly special, even when it's not absolutely perfect.

So here's to future ships being diverse and interesting and making the cruise experience something really special

You're welcome.

I can't see Royal doing away with smaller ships completely. But until recently, they haven't had any reason to start developing a new, smaller than Quantum class ship either.

With other lines now getting into the mega ship game, Royal is going to need smaller vessels to keep or expand port of call options lest they find that there's no berths available when and where they need them for their fleet size. There's itineraries which will only work on smaller ships which have high marketability and that Royal would be able to charge a nice premium for on a new class (i.e. Alaska, Norway). Plus, one nasty hurricane season could take out enough infrastructure in the Caribbean to limit ports of call, which would go double for mega ships. Smaller ships increases the likelihood of being able to port somewhere. Lastly, it provides Royal flexibility with their deployments if they want to, or need to, try something due to market conditions. 

I'm predicting 6-8 Discovery class ships to replace the 4 Vision class, 4 Radiance class, and 5 Voyager class ships in the fleet. They're not going to do a 1 to 1 replacement, but they also don't need to.

[steverk]

13 hours ago, twangster said:

Absolutely. 

Royal is not about trying to be everything and go everywhere.  They are a mass market cruise line engineered by design to visit mass market ports that want need mass tourism.

Want boutique ports?  Sail Celebrity.  

I don't think you're talking just boutique ports. Barcelona Spain is a major port that's moving toward restricting ships and ship sizes. You can also add Juneau Alaska, Venice Italy and Grand Cayman off the top of my head.

[smokeybandit]

19 hours ago, mworkman said:

One of the things to consider for the Discovery class ships is/if it will be used for the Alaska itinerary, open jaw for the land based itinerary and passage through the Panama Canal for transit for the off seasons. Whereas the bigger ships can still continue the closed jaw itinerary’s and when they replace the Radiance class ships.

When the Discovery talk was first getting traction, the captain on Adventure in March 2024 said Discovery would be used for Alaska. Granted, tough to take much stock in captain comments, but, I do remember that.

[bcarney]

On 6/26/2025 at 2:38 PM, ChessE4 said:

If Royal continues to grow, I believe they will acquire the vessels they need, even if pre-owned.

I don't see this happening. They had enough difficulties trying to re-integrate Empress back into the fleet  - a ship they built, sold, and then repurchased. I can't see them trying to shoehorn another line's build back into the fleet.  Also, what larger ships are for sale? 

[smokeybandit]

I think it'd have to be a really good deal on a newer ship to go the acquisition route.

[ChessE4]

By acquire I meant build or purchase. I wouldn't sell leadership short. They will do whatever makes business sense.

[JimnKathy]

On 6/27/2025 at 12:32 PM, steverk said:

On the other hand, we se more and more ports balking at the number of cruise ship passengers and some are even restricting the size and number of ships in port. Economy of scale is great and all, but it's not all roses.

I agree that some ports aren't interested in some 1st world countries (Key West, FL, some of the Maine ports, some Canadian ports, some European stops, etc.), but the 2nd and 3rd world nations will be more open to opportunities to get the passenger traffic that the larger ships offer.

[Vancity Cruiser]

On 6/27/2025 at 7:08 PM, Thumper44 said:

I think some of the more cynical comments in this thread (and on these message boards overall) are an indicator that some faithful cruisers have felt that the cruise industry may not quite be hitting that mark often enough

Not the cruise industry in general. Some other lines (not all) still offer the more traditional cruising vibe. Personally I feel that Royal's direction is successfully filling a needed role to expand the industry, and their results speak for themselves. I personally have gone from cruising about 90% Royal to 25% Royal because as I age I prefer a more laid back vibe while cruising. I continue to maintain though that Royals entertainment (shows) is unmatched and that is what keeps me coming back at all.