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The "90-day flight pricing rule" is validated again


JLMoran

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2 minutes ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

  Flying from Canada is ridiculous.

The only time I prefer to fly out of YYZ is if I am going to HKG.  We usually fly Cathay Pacific direct.  Flew AC to HKG once and the seats are very tight in economy class.  And I have had terrible experiences in customer service with AC.  Even Spirit CS > AC CS. 

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3 hours ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

@monctonguy, I think I asked you this before, but are you able to drive a reasonable distance to a US airport?  Worth investigating??

@J. Woody it sounds like you are from the GTA, have you ever considered flying out of Buffalo?  In past experience, I find that it is almost always cheaper to fly out of the US even if you have to drive a bit to an airport.  Flying from Canada is ridiculous.

That is great idea.!  I also thought driving to N.Y (8 hours!) and sail away on Liberty.!

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1 hour ago, J. Woody said:

That is great idea.!  I also thought driving to N.Y (8 hours!) and sail away on Liberty.!

You mean Adventure or Anthem??

When we sailed Anthem in March, almost everyone we met had driven from Toronto or Ottawa.  Near the end of the cruise, a guy on the elevator commented that everyone on the ship and their mother is from Canada lol.

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1 hour ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

You mean Adventure or Anthem??

When we sailed Anthem in March, almost everyone we met had driven from Toronto or Ottawa.  Near the end of the cruise, a guy on the elevator commented that everyone on the ship and their mother is from Canada lol.

Yes!! Newer ship sailed from N.Y. I thought Liberty!?

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22 minutes ago, J. Woody said:

Yes!! Newer ship sailed from N.Y. I thought Liberty!?

 

18 minutes ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

Liberty is in Galveston now.

Cape Liberty is in the NYC area.  Liberty of the Seas is in Galveston.

With family in the GTA they often fly from Buffalo.  When I visit them I fly into BUF and drive across.  Even customs process is much easier.  US bound customs process is a mess out of YYZ.

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  • 1 month later...

I've been watching the price of my flights from Scotland to JFK then from JFK to SJU. 

4 months until i fly stateside but prices have dropped £150 per ticket ? 

Flights from Scotland to New York in Nov are now just over £300 which is a bargain, flights from JFK to SJU have not changed still about £320 per ticket. 

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Remember 331 days for most airlines.  That is the first day prior to a trip that you can actually purchase.  What this means, for a cruise booked in the future, is: start watching prices immediately.  At 331 days, you can book, but will know prices to expect, and you can keep watching for those sales and other price dips.   If you are using frequent flyer miles, the "real" prices often do not show up until that magic 331st day prior.  Always look one or two days each side of "best" day, because prices vary on a daily basis (if you can).  Often you can save enough on airfare this way to pay for your motel.  Also, if possible, look at alternate routes and/or airports.

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  • 10 months later...

Bringing up this old thread.....as I am watching flights like crazy for my Nov cruise(as this will be my longest and most expensive cruise ever) so we need good flight deals.

 

Have been watching for a cpl mths now...we are about 170 days out.....flights are around $280 USD return out of Portland and have been up/down $30 or so. However, when I check seat selection it looks like very limited seats left(on the cheapest flights at least)...so I am worried about waiting till the 90 day mark to pull the trigger.

 

That being said, seems strange flights could sell out 6mths in advance  to Orlando...I would think this would be a popular route with lots of seats....

 

I am torn right now as to what to do.....Is everyone still sticking to and swearing by this 90 day price rule?

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45 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

Bringing up this old thread.....as I am watching flights like crazy for my Nov cruise(as this will be my longest and most expensive cruise ever) so we need good flight deals.

 

Have been watching for a cpl mths now...we are about 170 days out.....flights are around $280 USD return out of Portland and have been up/down $30 or so. However, when I check seat selection it looks like very limited seats left(on the cheapest flights at least)...so I am worried about waiting till the 90 day mark to pull the trigger.

 

That being said, seems strange flights could sell out 6mths in advance  to Orlando...I would think this would be a popular route with lots of seats....

 

I am torn right now as to what to do.....Is everyone still sticking to and swearing by this 90 day price rule?

The 90 day concept is centered around legacy carriers.  The Delta, American, United, Air Canada type carriers.  It does not apply to LCC or Low Cost Carriers (Southwest, JetBlue, Westjet, etc), or the ULCCs - Ultra Low Cost Carriers (Sprint, Frontier).

The LCCs and ULCCs tend to have a fixed number of cheap seat and once they are gone they are gone.  Next they have some cheaper seats but as not as cheap as the lowest cost seats.  These can fluctuate based on supply and demand rules with no time period involved.  If demand is strong at 90 days prices remain high, or at 120 days , or 60 days, or when ever.   Lastly the LCC/ULCC have business rates that are often higher than even the legacy carriers.  These are just for frequent business travelers who aren't paying out of their own pocket.  

The variable to the 90 day concept is that the legacy carriers price against the LCCs and ULCCs.  If Southwest is charging $245 from Phoenix to New York, American or Delta is probably going to be in that vicinity until a capacity threshold is crossed.

So it depends who you are thinking about flying and it isn't written in stone, it's too competitive for airlines not to be aware of market prices.

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Adding too that all airlines including the LCCs and ULCCs keep an eye on oil prices which can influence their fuel costs.  If oil prices are stable and predictable so will airfare be.  If there is turmoil or projected turmoil in oil prices the airlines will protect themselves from the uncertainty by nudging airfare up until they have a better projection how fuel prices will actually be getting closer to the flight.

Sometimes this plays into the 90 day rule and sometimes it is at odds with the 90 rule.

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Yeah...its been Delta and American that I am watching as the ULCC dates don't work for me.....I checked weekends before and after and the prices are higher all around the dates I am looking at which makes me more worried..I have checked all airports within a 8 hr drive from where I live for deals and nothing matches that so perhaps its time to take the plunge at the 170 day mark..I cant imagine it going much cheaper than $125 each way, but I could see it going much higher...

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4 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

I cant imagine it going much cheaper than $125 each way, but I could see it going much higher...

If it's in the second half of November, probably won't see much lower as people begin to firm up their Thanksgiving (US) holiday travel plans.

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2 hours ago, monctonguy said:

Bringing up this old thread.....as I am watching flights like crazy for my Nov cruise(as this will be my longest and most expensive cruise ever) so we need good flight deals.

 

Have been watching for a cpl mths now...we are about 170 days out.....flights are around $280 USD return out of Portland and have been up/down $30 or so. However, when I check seat selection it looks like very limited seats left(on the cheapest flights at least)...so I am worried about waiting till the 90 day mark to pull the trigger.

 

That being said, seems strange flights could sell out 6mths in advance  to Orlando...I would think this would be a popular route with lots of seats....

 

I am torn right now as to what to do.....Is everyone still sticking to and swearing by this 90 day price rule?

 

I still don't accept any 90 day rule, personally. I fly 125,000+ BIS miles each year and book flights for even more on behalf of others, and I just still don't see it. But my point here is that a seat map is NOT an accurate reflection of inventory, for several reasons. The flight could be almost completely booked but show endless available seats (because many people, for various reasons, don't or can't select seats), and it could be empty but show very few seats (airlines can save physical seat inventory for various reasons, or they could be allocated to codeshare or other partners). There are (paid) ways to find exactly how many seats are for sale in various fare buckets, but the seat map is not an accurate way to find true inventory.

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@monctonguy, if you're sailing anywhere in the vicinity of US Thanksgiving then you should definitely book now while the fare is something you're OK with. If it's anything like when I was sailing in April 2018, where it lined up with both Easter week and the spring break week for a lot of school districts, the prices will only go up as the holiday gets closer.

While my particular case worked out as far as "at 90 days out the price took a dip from what I'd been watching, and never got lower", I've no doubt it was not as low as it would have been had I booked a lot earlier. Holiday pricing on the airlines is just like holiday pricing on the cruise itineraries. Starts higher than you want, and only gets worse from there!

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I agree with what others have said already.  The 90 day rule does not seem to apply to holidays or March break.  I learned my lesson from last March.  I will still follow it for non-holidays (I did with the Anthem GC and noticed a drop within the 60-90 day mark) but I already have my flight for March 2020 booked.

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Yeah..its the week before thanksgiving I am looking at..16-25 for flight dates but it could still be affecting it.....I think ia m going to take the plunge and not look back. Well, I will probably look back like I always do but I don't feel it will drop that much lower to make a difference...however the risk of it going up or selling out is much greater.

 

Probably going to run into the same issue next  April as we want to cruise mid April which will be a nightmare with flight prices as well.

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Guest toodle68

I wish I could be like some of you and wait.. but as soon as I have booked my vacation I generally purchase the flight. I have been in a couple of situations of booking later and ended up on a 2 stopper or sat by the toilets. As we get older, our tolerance for coach has also diminished. 

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On 5/30/2019 at 8:24 AM, monctonguy said:

I am torn right now as to what to do.....Is everyone still sticking to and swearing by this 90 day price rule?

I generally stay close to the 90 day rule, but flying in to Orlando has changed that a little, I have a cruise leaving Port Canaveral in October-19 and had been watching the prices and they kept going up and down and then started going up and not down, so I bought early, it is the most expensive ticket I have bought this year.

Taking a business trip to Orlando, Nov 3-9th and have also bought tickets because they were edging up, as an FYI that is when Microsoft is having the yearly Ignite conference, another reason I bought early.

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1 hour ago, toodle68 said:

I wish I could be like some of you and wait.. but as soon as I have booked my vacation I generally purchase the flight. I have been in a couple of situations of booking later and ended up on a 2 stopper or sat by the toilets. As we get older, our tolerance for coach has also diminished. 

I'll never be able to afford anything but coach.....but that's the joys of working/living/flying from Canada and wanting to travel 3-4 times a year.....its a trade off.

 

I normally don't mind taking a gamble on the flight or seat for a cheap price..but I cant gamble on this one I feel.

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Guest toodle68
11 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

I'll never be able to afford anything but coach

We are looking at a New Zealand cruise in 2021 and the costs of the flights for anything but coach is beyond our means.. but wife is not thrilled at sitting on a plane for 15 hours, never mind in coach. I have a feeling some of my long distant vacation plans are going to be a tough sell.  If we had the vacation time and money, I would do the Vancouver to Hawaii,  Hawaii to Sydney and then the 2 cruises that take you around Australia and New Zealand. Only about 60 days vacation needed ?

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2 hours ago, toodle68 said:

I wish I could be like some of you and wait.. but as soon as I have booked my vacation I generally purchase the flight. I have been in a couple of situations of booking later and ended up on a 2 stopper or sat by the toilets. As we get older, our tolerance for coach has also diminished. 

That's me, too.

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1 hour ago, toodle68 said:

We are looking at a New Zealand cruise in 2021 and the costs of the flights for anything but coach is beyond our means.. but wife is not thrilled at sitting on a plane for 15 hours, never mind in coach. I have a feeling some of my long distant vacation plans are going to be a tough sell.  If we had the vacation time and money, I would do the Vancouver to Hawaii,  Hawaii to Sydney and then the 2 cruises that take you around Australia and New Zealand. Only about 60 days vacation needed ?

Think about it this way...yeah, 15 hours seems long. And it is long, especially in economy. But the chance to visit some of these amazing places may be worth one day in economy (15 hours out + 13 hours back, or vice versa depending on where you're going, is just over one day). If you're doing, say, three weeks in New Zealand, that's 504 hours. A 28 hour roundtrip, though long, is a small price for 504 hours of reward IMHO.

I practically live out of a suitcase for work. I hit every populated continent at least twice a year, and I am in New Zealand at least 3-4 times a year for work. I've also been lucky enough to vacation twice in New Zealand. As many places as I have been in the world, if I had to choose just one to spent every moment of my life, it would be New Zealand. Get on that plane.

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Quick update...not 90 days out..but the price has jumped 30% for the flight I had booked and others that were more expensive to start with have also gone up. Glad I booked it when I did.

 

I'll start monitoring flight prices for my next cruise once I have it booked.  Wont be as much time for that one as  will be booking at end of Nov for a mid-April cruise...so with a 135 day window and it being around Easter...it will be tricky again I am sure.

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6 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

it being around Easter

Easter Sunday is April 12 for 2020. If you know the date of the cruise and are 100% certain you'll be booking it, buy the airfare as soon as it becomes available. Easter is always a tough week, and with it that early in the month it's a lot more likely to coincide with spring break week again.

For a lot of northeastern US school districts, Spring Break is the week of Good Friday, so the nightmare week for booking flights is probably going to be April 6 through 12. If for some reason they push it out to the week after Easter (which I've only seen a couple times when Easter fell on the first Sunday in April or last Sunday in March), then the worst week for pricing will be April 13 through 19.

Either way, with a flight down and back you're likely to hit at least one of those worst-case weeks.

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I can vouch for the Easter pricing being awful. I missed out on a trip with my family this past Easter - The flight $$ was ridiculous - 3 months out and checked every week until the week of.

I will put this out there - I booked my Italy trip (in 2 days!!!) 6 months in advance. My OCD checking caught me a miraculous mistake and what was $1600 was $850. The price stayed the same for 3 days until it went back up to $1600. Since then it's gone to to $1200 at the lowest.

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We would like to be cruising on the 17th of April...so anytime before or after that includes that date would work..so we could be smack right in the middle of the Easter pricing..:(

 

We can book till  Dec so will have to take what we can get at that price...not looking forward to it!

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2 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

We can't book till  Dec so will have to take what we can get at that price...not looking forward to it!

For what it's worth, the impetus for me to make the original post on this topic was that I had been watching flights for my Freedom cruise last year, which sailed ON Easter!

If you look at the original post, you'll see that I did actually report a notable drop in the price around the 90-day mark that gave me some price relief and feel better about booking. So if you're constrained on when you can book your flight, just watch the prices daily as you get close to booking your cruise. If nothing else happens, you may luck out and get a drop like I had gotten right around that 90-day point. Others didn't have as much luck around holiday weekend flights, so just be sure to keep on top of it and be ready to book the flight as soon as you see a number you're OK with; even if it's the same day you book the cruise!

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