Allure Oversold... Again.

[LizzyBee23]

https://www.cruisehive.com/yet-another-royal-caribbean-ship-oversold-days-before-sailing/100832

[WAAAYTOOO]

To me, this [oversold situation popping up so frequently lately] screams that either RoyalUp isn't working OR they just don't trust RU to get the best $$ result. Obviously, whatever "buffer" inventory that they had been using in the past has been replaced with "sell it all and hope for the best". Desperation, much ?

[twangster]

Given that I'm flying to most of my cruises again, I wonder if they try to keep Air2Sea booked guests on the sailing so they don't have to eat the airline fees for last minute cancellations.

May be an unpublished benefit of A2S...  less likely to be booted in an oversold scenraio. 

[LizzyBee23]

23 minutes ago, WAAAYTOOO said:

To me, this [oversold situation popping up so frequently lately] screams that either RoyalUp isn't working OR they just don't trust RU to get the best $$ result. Obviously, whatever "buffer" inventory that they had been using in the past has been replaced with "sell it all and hope for the best". Desperation, much ?

Yea... I think the days of claiming it's an IT glitch are long gone. At this point, it's a feature... not a bug.

[LizzyBee23]

24 minutes ago, twangster said:

Given that I'm flying to most of cruises again, I wonder if they try to keep Air2Sea booked guests on the sailing so they don't have to eat the airline fees for last minute cancellations.

May be an unpublished benefit of A2S...  less likely to be booted in an oversold scenraio. 

I do wonder about that... I think I read at one point it was "random", but would not be surprised to hear that all of their random selections were below the 10th percentile in terms of fare revenue (and betting the financial impact for A2S would enter in here).

We're actually booked on Allure at the end of the month, and only need a flight to get my husband back to work on a plane while the kids and I do our grand tour of grandparents for the summer. I suspect ours will be oversold, too (first sailing after most southern schools are out). I think we'd take them up on the offer of a full refund and an alternate sailing, but we're traveling in a group of 4 cabins. We're also very low revenue (booked when the fare was inexplicably low, and hasn't come within 60% of it since then). Wondering if we'd be first on the chopping block because of our low fare, or last because of the group.

[smokeybandit]

Like the others, the local retirees who cruise on a whim will take RC up on the offer and no one will get kicked off.

[LizzyBee23]

15 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Like the others, the local retirees who cruise on a whim will take RC up on the offer and no one will get kicked off.

I think these summer sailings will be a test, and especially this one... where the only alternative that really ends up with the buyer being in a better position is to take the shorter Voyager sailing.

[TexanTwoStep]

Quote

The first option is for guests to move to Voyager of the Seas for a similar 5-night sailing departing either June 3 or June 17. Both sailings will visit Costa Maya and Cozumel, but not Roatan.

Travelers who choose this option will not only move to their selected Voyager of the Seas cruise, but will also receive a 100% refund of their Allure of the Seas fare, plus $300 (USD) of non-refundable onboard credit for Voyager of the Seas.

 

Ugh, the June 3rd is my cruise -- I'm hoping not many people take them up on the offer because on my dummy bookings, there are tons of rooms still available.  I'm now expecting several grumpy families on board a ship they didn't want to be on simply because it's free.

[bobroo]

I think this is a case of Royal Up working better than planned.

It very well could be that a Royal Up offer could be so excessive over expectations that it makes good business sense to give that passenger the GTY room they have bid on and have reasonable assurance that some much lower paying passenger will feel happy to take a refund and the FCC/OBC.

If this works as planned it's a win-win-win. 

[twangster]

I think it's a reliance on outdated booking trends. 

In the past there were many calcellations before a sale date. 

Guest have changed.  People aren't cancelling bookings on a whim anymore, or in the numbers they used to.

Time to update the playbook.  What used to occur before the pandemic isn't relevant any more. 

[Happy Cruisers]

It is interesting that this is cropping up at a time when the company has apparently rolled out a new revenue management strategy - the text below is taken from Matt's article from last Thursday (5/4/23) summarizing RC's recent earnings call and the emphasis on the new revenue management mention is my own.  If one believes correlation can mean causation, then this overbooking trend does indeed seem to be a feature of the new revenue management model.  To be clear, I think most of the inventory discussion below relates to periods further out than what some are seeing in oversold situations; rather, I think the interesting tidbit is their apparent newly-found sophistication in revenue management. 

A question was asked about how booking and inventory will be handled in the future, and Mr. Liberty talked about their process.

"We used to kind of put everything out there and all the suites would be sold basically right off the bat. And then you would kind of work your way down to the inside cabins," he said in answering the question.

"While now, we we hold back inventory, and we release it based off of our what are much more sophisticated revenue management models that we have today."

 

[twangster]

Revenue mgmt - "We have 100 cabins of type X.   We'll sell 100 cabins at $1,000, then keep selling them at $1,500.  If we sell any of them at $1,500 we'll just cancel the ones we sold at $1,000".  

 

[bobroo]

…..and thank you Royal Up for writing the demand schedule, this management job couldn’t be any easier.

<crosses legs and puts feet on desk>

[DoomSlayer]

I am boarding Allure on the 14th -- hopefully they don't give my room away to someone else.  I have not seen anything from Royal addressed to me about this.  I am in a casino comp room so hopefully they think I will be bringing money on board and not try and cancel me.

[RafaellaCG]

20 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Like the others, the local retirees who cruise on a whim will take RC up on the offer and no one will get kicked off.

Nice for some of the others, but on mine someone was kicked off without volunteering (oddly, we volunteered for the refund+different cruise offer and kept our sailing).

[JasonOasis]

18 hours ago, twangster said:

I think it's a reliance on outdated booking trends. 

In the past there were many calcellations before a sale date. 

Guest have changed.  People aren't cancelling bookings on a whim anymore, or in the numbers they used to.

Time to update the playbook.  What used to occur before the pandemic isn't relevant any more. 

I think you've nailed it right here.  I think in the past there probably were a lot of last minute cancellations and now Royal isn't seeing as many cancellations as before.

In the airline industry when they oversell a flight and everyone shows up if they don't get enough volunteers to take whatever they are offering they then look at the cost of the ticket and they will deny boarding starting with the passenger/s who have purchased the cheapest ticket and work their way up from there.

I don't agree with it I think it is wrong.  Just because someone purchased a cheap ticket doesn't mean their plans aren't important but that is how the airlines work when they don't get volunteers to give up their seat. I don't know how Royal decides who cruise to cancel but they really need to lower the percentage they oversell these cruises.

[CanHardlyWait]

There playing a nasty game. It's dirty business. 

[ultimate_ed]

30 minutes ago, CanHardlyWait said:

There playing a nasty game. It's dirty business. 

Yes, but all those shares and bonds they sold to keep the lights on with no ships sailing have to be paid for.  It's pretty telling that with bookings and on board spending above pre-pandemic levels, they're still losing money.

[CanHardlyWait]

17 minutes ago, ultimate_ed said:

Yes, but all those shares and bonds they sold to keep the lights on with no ships sailing have to be paid for.  It's pretty telling that with bookings and on board spending above pre-pandemic levels, they're still losing money.

I don't care who they owe money to. Did they ask me about my bills when they took my money, No they did not. 

[KristiZ]

It's just as likely to be far less nefarious than you all are suggesting. 

Airlines oversell, certainly. But I can tell you that a surprising non-zero number of times there was a different reason for a denied boarding. Like someone on the prior flight peed on the seat and the whole row had to be removed from inventory. Or someone stole the seatbelts in a row and there were no spares, so those seats were unusable. (I have more stories -- 14 years as a front-line airline employee!)

Could just be that Allure is aging and there are plumbing issues or electrical problems or whatever, that the onboard maintenance team is struggling to get under control. So some sailings have a block of cabins that are unusable for whatever reason.

I find there are far fewer complex plots and way more examples of general incompetence in the world. Everywhere.

[ultimate_ed]

20 hours ago, LizzyBee23 said:

We're actually booked on Allure at the end of the month, and only need a flight to get my husband back to work on a plane while the kids and I do our grand tour of grandparents for the summer. I suspect ours will be oversold, too (first sailing after most southern schools are out). I think we'd take them up on the offer of a full refund and an alternate sailing, but we're traveling in a group of 4 cabins. We're also very low revenue (booked when the fare was inexplicably low, and hasn't come within 60% of it since then). Wondering if we'd be first on the chopping block because of our low fare, or last because of the group.

It's probably worse than either - one or two of your rooms get kicked, while the others don't.

In your case, the last thing you want to do is put in for the offer.  Each room, even if you paid for all four, is a distinct booking in RCCL's system.  So, you're possible to "win" the offer for one room and get it moved to Voyager (or a later Allure sailing), while the rest of the rooms stay on Allure.

[ultimate_ed]

17 minutes ago, CanHardlyWait said:

I don't care who they owe money to. Did they ask me about my bills when they took my money, No they did not. 

I don't disagree, and ultimately this is the price they all paid for being non-US companies - they weren't eligible for any kind of COVID bailouts/support from the US government the way the airlines and other businesses were.  Of course, they probably wouldn't be able to exist at all if they had to comply with US shipping and labor laws, so there's that.

I'm still betting one of the big three is going to go through a bankruptcy reorg at some point.  The amount of debt (and equity dilution) that Carnival, NCL, and Royal all took on was staggering.

[CanHardlyWait]

20 minutes ago, ultimate_ed said:

I don't disagree, and ultimately this is the price they all paid for being non-US companies - they weren't eligible for any kind of COVID bailouts/support from the US government the way the airlines and other businesses were.  Of course, they probably wouldn't be able to exist at all if they had to comply with US shipping and labor laws, so there's that.

I'm still betting one of the big three is going to go through a bankruptcy reorg at some point.  The amount of debt (and equity dilution) that Carnival, NCL, and Royal all took on was staggering.

Truly well said.

[Fairlynew]

20 hours ago, twangster said:

I think it's a reliance on outdated booking trends. 

In the past there were many calcellations before a sale date. 

Guest have changed.  People aren't cancelling bookings on a whim anymore, or in the numbers they used to.

Time to update the playbook.  What used to occur before the pandemic isn't relevant any more. 

I wonder if the fact that the pricing for refundable deposits is so high compared to non-refundable rates.  In the past, I usually booked refundable, but now, the price difference doesn't make sense to do that.  If people have non-refundable deposits, they are much less likely to cancel.

[BMW Hoosier]

3 hours ago, JasonOasis said:

In the airline industry when they oversell a flight and everyone shows up if they don't get enough volunteers to take whatever they are offering they then look at the cost of the ticket and they will deny boarding starting with the passenger/s who have purchased the cheapest ticket and work their way up from there.

It actually isn't nearly that simple. Each airline has to publish its criteria for involuntarily denied bookings and the cost of the ticket is but one of several factors. Most airlines have their effective IDB rate very low and in particular, Delta has it as near to zero (like less than 10 people in a year) as about humanly possible. They will give a LOT of money before they will kick someone off. Worthy of note, airlines hand out millions of dollars every day for oversells but they still do it because the alternative would cost them more. 

[Thumper44]

3 hours ago, KristiZ said:

I find there are far fewer complex plots and way more examples of general incompetence in the world. Everywhere.

This!

[LizzyBee23]

1 hour ago, BMW Hoosier said:

It actually isn't nearly that simple. Each airline has to publish its criteria for involuntarily denied bookings and the cost of the ticket is but one of several factors. Most airlines have their effective IDB rate very low and in particular, Delta has it as near to zero (like less than 10 people in a year) as about humanly possible. They will give a LOT of money before they will kick someone off. Worthy of note, airlines hand out millions of dollars every day for oversells but they still do it because the alternative would cost them more. 

Not sure any such standard exists now for cruise lines... Do they face any financial penalties at all for denying boarding, other than a refund of the fare?

[CanHardlyWait]

Has anyone been denied boarding at the port over this? I know offers have gone out, but anyone screwed at the very last minute? Without even an offer that includes hotel and airfare reimbursement?

[twangster]

3 hours ago, BMW Hoosier said:

It actually isn't nearly that simple. Each airline has to publish its criteria for involuntarily denied bookings and the cost of the ticket is but one of several factors. Most airlines have their effective IDB rate very low and in particular, Delta has it as near to zero (like less than 10 people in a year) as about humanly possible. They will give a LOT of money before they will kick someone off. Worthy of note, airlines hand out millions of dollars every day for oversells but they still do it because the alternative would cost them more. 

Delta's IDB rates are calculated after handing out vouchers since those guests are no longer IDB.

Hang around an airport for a day and you'll still the hear the announcements looking for volunteers.  I just did this past weekend.   

[LizzyBee23]

At least the last few times I've noticed Delta asking at the check-in kiosks if you'd be willing to give up your seat, and to give them a number if so. I keyed in an offer last week for the first time... I was the first flight out, and had all day to get to where I was going, so figured I'd give it a shot. Turns out, they didn't need me, but I was wondering about the efficacy of that approach versus the one over the announcements. Of course, not much in common with asking someone to fully reschedule a vacation with nothing to show for the trouble.

[teddy]

2 hours ago, twangster said:

Hang around an airport for a day and you'll still the hear the announcements looking for volunteers.  I just did this past weekend.   

 

2 hours ago, LizzyBee23 said:

At least the last few times I've noticed Delta asking at the check-in kiosks if you'd be willing to give up your seat, and to give them a number if so. I keyed in an offer last week for the first time... I was the first flight out, and had all day to get to where I was going, so figured I'd give it a shot. Turns out, they didn't need me, but I was wondering about the efficacy of that approach versus the one over the announcements. Of course, not much in common with asking someone to fully reschedule a vacation with nothing to show for the trouble.

Whenever possible, my wife and I set up our travel arrangements so we can volunteer to be bumped to a later flight if a call goes out. 
 

One time on a flight to Miami, we each got a $1000 flight voucher, put in first class on the replacement flight, and ended up getting to Miami only two hours later than originally planned. 
 

We‘ve discussed what we’d do if we were ever bumped from a cruise.  Both of us agree that we’d find a way to make lemonade out an offer that included 100% fcc. 

[anneglubis]

Me too. I absolutely love it. None of my travel... Wait... There was one family issue out of country during COVID... Only one time has my travel schedule been more important than getting a good deal. 

[BMW Hoosier]

3 hours ago, twangster said:

Delta's IDB rates are calculated after handing out vouchers since those guests are no longer IDB.

Hang around an airport for a day and you'll still the hear the announcements looking for volunteers.  I just did this past weekend.   

Yeah, that is right. The point is that they seriously almost never IDB someone and it's a crucial part of the business plan. I know the cruise thing is different because you don't catch the next cruise two hours later or tomorrow but if it works for someone who lives near the port, why not? I do agree there ought to be a written standard. 

[twangster]

Sooner or later these practices will motivate Congress to get involved and we'll see a bill to protect consumers.  

When an airline does it, usually it just means a brief delay or wait until the next flight.

When a cruise line does it, vacation timing is ruined, time off work is messed up, coordination of multiple parties is wrecked.  

We really need Congress to get involved and curtail this practice by Royal.  Perhaps a $10k penalty for each guest impacted will suddenly make their reservation system work better.  

[BMW Hoosier]

3 hours ago, twangster said:

When a cruise line does it, vacation timing is ruined, time off work is messed up, coordination of multiple parties is wrecked.  

Unless you are a Florida retiree driving to the port, then you say "hell yes, we will go next week for free."

[twangster]

17 minutes ago, BMW Hoosier said:

Unless you are a Florida retiree driving to the port, then you say "hell yes, we will go next week for free."

Unless you are booked on a B2B already, or another ship, or have a hip surgery scheduled.   

[anneglubis]

4 hours ago, twangster said:

We really need Congress to get involved and curtail this practice by Royal.  Perhaps a $10k penalty for each guest impacted will suddenly make their reservation system work better.  

If people really do have a problem with this, we don't have to wait around for a Congressional act.  The impacted people need to voice their experiences to as many cruising customers as possible. Celebrity or Holland will come out saying they won't force anyone off... or their stats are so much better...  I'd switch loyalties if there's some evidence of a company process whereby cruisers are thrown off a ship without a fair agreement.

Actually maybe one of y'all has a link to the industry data. Will someone share that? I'm into customer analytics. I'd totally spread the word if these are truly unfair or predatory practices. 

[twangster]

19 minutes ago, anneglubis said:

If people really do have a problem with this, we don't have to wait around for a Congressional act.  The impacted people need to voice their experiences to as many cruising customers as possible. Celebrity or Holland will come out saying they won't force anyone off... or their stats are so much better...  I'd switch loyalties if there's some evidence of a company process whereby cruisers are thrown off a ship without a fair agreement.

Actually maybe one of y'all has a link to the industry data. Will someone share that? I'm into customer analytics. I'd totally spread the word if these are truly unfair or predatory practices. 

Spreading the word hasn't stopped the terrible practice of dumping families when a charter comes along.  With gangbuster bookings right now they have no issue backfilling those of us that try to vote with our wallets.  

[CanHardlyWait]

58 minutes ago, twangster said:

Spreading the word hasn't stopped the terrible practice of dumping families when a charter comes along.  With gangbuster bookings right now they have no issue backfilling those of us that try to vote with our wallets.  

That's true. Only difference is people get dumped for a charter with more than a weeks notice. This situation is so last minute to spring on people. It just really stinks. I can see how some can volunteer and make lemonade. But having to worry there won't be enough volunteers is just one more thing to worry about. LOL. It gets old.

[twangster]

Or perhaps this is all a sign they are about to have a Southwest Airlines style platform meltdown and oversold will soon be the least of our concerns.   Imagine taking two days to check in 6,000 people manually.