What Will Happen to Smaller Ship Options?

[mac66]

22 hours ago, Rackham said:

I don't remember the exact numbers, but Royal has said previously an Oasis-class ship requires about 40% occupancy to turn a profit while a Vision-class requires around 70% occupancy. Newer ship designs could reduce the occupancy required to cover costs, but there's still the issue of larger ships can generate more revenue due to passenger volume. So while the expenses of a smaller ship are less, the potential profit is too. 

To me, there's a lot we don't know about backend discussions and analysis at Royal. How do smaller ships fare during the off-season? How beneficial are smaller ships with retaining frequent cruisers and guest spending (due to the loyalty program and on-board accounts they know all)? How are they viewing smaller ships with various environmental regulations being put into place in parts of Europe? 

Still...there are quite a few smaller ships in service that sail quite often i.e. every week.  Seems to me RCL needs them to keep up with demand...the right ship for the right itinerary out of the right port. 

It also seems to me the CLs would be cutting their own throats by moving everything to the mega ships. 

[twangster]

1 hour ago, mac66 said:

Still...there are quite a few smaller ships in service that sail quite often i.e. every week.  Seems to me RCL needs them to keep up with demand...the right ship for the right itinerary out of the right port. 

It also seems to me the CLs would be cutting their own throats by moving everything to the mega ships. 

Small ships sail every week because they have small ships from the days that small ships were large ships.

If Royal was just starting out today as a new cruise line with no ships they would not build small ships just because some people like small ships.  Every ship would be a big ship.  Small ships cost more to operate on a per passenger basis.  

Besides in the not so distant future Voyager class will be considered small ships so in that respect they will have small ships in the future.

[mac66]

14 hours ago, twangster said:

Small ships sail every week because they have small ships from the days that small ships were large ships.

If Royal was just starting out today as a new cruise line with no ships they would not build small ships just because some people like small ships.  Every ship would be a big ship.  Small ships cost more to operate on a per passenger basis.  

Besides in the not so distant future Voyager class will be considered small ships so in that respect they will have small ships in the future.

The strategy by the CLs is that their ships become a destination unto themselves rather than a means to get from one place to another. Basically floating resorts. Certainly true with the Oasis class ships and mega carnival/NCL etc ships.

From that standpoint I think they will eventually phase out smaller ships but I think there is still a market for less than Oasis class ships. 

[steverk]

14 hours ago, mac66 said:

The strategy by the CLs is that their ships become a destination unto themselves rather than a means to get from one place to another. Basically floating resorts. Certainly true with the Oasis class ships and mega carnival/NCL etc ships.

From that standpoint I think they will eventually phase out smaller ships but I think there is still a market for less than Oasis class ships. 

Evidently royal agreed with you at least when they developed the quantum class.

It remains to be seen if they will feel the need for a "smaller" ship when they release the class after Icon.

Buckle up! I'm sure it will be an interesting ride.

[Zambia-Zaire]

On 12/6/2022 at 4:34 PM, twangster said:

Besides in the not so distant future Voyager class will be considered small ships so in that respect they will have small ships in the future.

???

 

There is a huge difference between a 30yr small class of ship with modern limitations versus new, more efficient versions with any number of innovations, standard on the ship.

[twangster]

22 hours ago, mac66 said:

The strategy by the CLs is that their ships become a destination unto themselves rather than a means to get from one place to another. Basically floating resorts. Certainly true with the Oasis class ships and mega carnival/NCL etc ships.

The strategy with the mass market cruise lines is to make the ship the destination.  

22 hours ago, mac66 said:

From that standpoint I think they will eventually phase out smaller ships but I think there is still a market for less than Oasis class ships. 

That is where boutique, luxury and upscale cruise lines will find there little corner of the market.  Azamara for example.  Celebrity.   

[twangster]

List every port that can't accommodate Oasis class but are serviced by Royal ships today.   Remove from that list any port that has banned most cruise ships like Key West, Bar Harbor and Venice.  Take all Norway ports off the list since Norway is also banning all ships with anything but zero emissions in a few years.   The list of small only ports isn't that long relative to the number of ports that can accommodate larger ships. 

Despite having ships that can transit the Panama Canal it's not a destination that Royal has always had a presence.  A few years ago there were no Panama Canal cruises to be had even when half the fleet was capable.  Even now it's a rarity and more when they have to rather than a place where Royal is trying to be a serious competitor.  Same with the British Virgin Islands.  Despite a number of small ships sailing from Florida it's hard to find a Royal cruise to the BVI.   It's been happening for years.  Royal doesn't go everywhere.  No one complains about Royal not going to the BVI.  

Royal doesn't need to sail everywhere to be a successful cruise line. 

[karl_nj]

1 hour ago, twangster said:

List every port that can't accommodate Oasis class but are serviced by Royal ships today.

Bermuda.  I guess Grand Cayman too (since it's a tender port) but I'm not sure anyone would really complain about that, and I think that port fits in your semi "anti cruise ship" bucket.  But I think Bermuda would be an issue if the Royal fleet only had ships Oasis size and larger.  People like Bermuda.  Though the larger corporation does have Celebrity to go there.  In fact, the reason Celebrity was created was to go to Bermuda. 

[Geoff P]

6 hours ago, karl_nj said:

Bermuda.  I guess Grand Cayman too (since it's a tender port) but I'm not sure anyone would really complain about that, and I think that port fits in your semi "anti cruise ship" bucket.  But I think Bermuda would be an issue if the Royal fleet only had ships Oasis size and larger.  People like Bermuda.  Though the larger corporation does have Celebrity to go there.  In fact, the reason Celebrity was created was to go to Bermuda. 

I know he said Oasis, but Quantum Class can go to Bermuda, and are roughly the same age as Oasis class

[twangster]

12 hours ago, karl_nj said:

Bermuda.  I guess Grand Cayman too (since it's a tender port) but I'm not sure anyone would really complain about that, and I think that port fits in your semi "anti cruise ship" bucket.  But I think Bermuda would be an issue if the Royal fleet only had ships Oasis size and larger.  People like Bermuda.  Though the larger corporation does have Celebrity to go there.  In fact, the reason Celebrity was created was to go to Bermuda. 

Okay.  One port.  Bermuda.

Grand Cayman is in it's own world.  They have options but have refused to pursue them since the tender boat companies would go out of business and so far that business interest has been successful lobbying, or owning the local government and public opinion.  I rank this as a port that doesn't want large ships.  

[Rackham]

On 12/8/2022 at 2:27 PM, Geoff P said:

I know he said Oasis, but Quantum Class can go to Bermuda, and are roughly the same age as Oasis class

That might be how Royal's leaning with future smaller ships since the class was introduced after Oasis. However, looking at ship ages vs. sizes, Royal might also decide to let it ride if Bermuda is the deciding factor. On average, Vision-class is hitting 30 years in 5 years, Radiance-class is hitting the big 3-0 in about 11, Voyager-class in 9, and Freedom-class in 15. There are multiple options that aren't Quantum when considering Bermuda for at least a decade. Still, I'm anticipating we'll hear something within that time about a smaller ship than Oasis if they're planning one. Might be another Quantum, might be an evolved Quantum-class. I'd be pleasantly surprised if it carries under 4,000 passengers. 

[MichelleB1234]

On 12/8/2022 at 6:30 AM, twangster said:

The strategy with the mass market cruise lines is to make the ship the destination.  

That is where boutique, luxury and upscale cruise lines will find there little corner of the market.  Azamara for example.  Celebrity.   

The NCL Prima accommodates 3200 guests.

[Plumlee2028]

14 hours ago, MichelleB1234 said:

The NCL Prima accommodates 3200 guests.

 And they are increasing it to around 3550 on the four prima class ships built after the second that comes next year.  The ships aren't growing, just the capacity.  There is a difference though, Norwegian wants Prima class and their future branding/style to be more Celebrity style than Royal Caribbean.  I see it as a Royal Caribbean level of "activities" (go carts, slides, etc) with Celebrity decor and food.  That's what they are trying to offer. They are very intelligent to create a differentiation. Royal Caribbean International is a similar size to Norwegian Cruise Holdings (all of their brands), not to mention Celebrity and Silversea.  Competing directly probably isn't the best move.  Their biggest ships are the same basic size as Quantum class.  Norwegian Cruise Holdings is run by a team with a history in luxury and ultra-luxury travel.  They have been moving NCL up to match their other brands.  

[Rackham]

This line is interesting from a RCBlog posting earlier today (https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2022/12/14/royal-caribbean-announces-plan-build-first-carbon-neutral-cruise-ship)

"It also aims to reduce carbon intensity by double digits by 2025 compared to 2019 and the introduction of a net-zero cruise ship by 2035."

By 2035 Royal will either be looking to sunset every last Voyager, Radiance, and Vision-class ship or will be getting close to doing so based on historical patterns. Freedom-class probably won't be long in the fleet at that point either. It might be slightly easier to net-zero a smaller versus a larger vessel. 

[twangster]

34 minutes ago, Rackham said:

This line is interesting from a RCBlog posting earlier today (https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2022/12/14/royal-caribbean-announces-plan-build-first-carbon-neutral-cruise-ship)

"It also aims to reduce carbon intensity by double digits by 2025 compared to 2019 and the introduction of a net-zero cruise ship by 2035."

By 2035 Royal will either be looking to sunset every last Voyager, Radiance, and Vision-class ship or will be getting close to doing so based on historical patterns. Freedom-class probably won't be long in the fleet at that point either. It might be slightly easier to net-zero a smaller versus a larger vessel. 

You need to dig into a claim of carbon neutral or zero.  The company has goals to be carbon neutral. That doesn't mean each ship will be. 

Some companies around the world are achieving carbon neutrality by doing things ike planting lots of trees.   They are still spewing out pollution in factories but all the trees they planted are said to counter that so they can claim carbon neutrality.  

Some companies pay their electronic company an additional monthly fee to source the energy from windmills.  This allows them to offset their carbon footprint by sourcing green energy.

At home my electric utility company allows me to pay a monthly fee so that I am zero footprint.  Despite if I crank on the A/C all summer leaving my windows open I can state I saving the environment since I "powered my house with green energy".  Does my utility company divert only green electrons from the grid into my house.  No!  In fact they are probably doing very little other than charging me more.  

[mac66]

As I get older I appreciate the smaller ships more with the less hectic/crowded activities on board. We kind of switched to Celebrity ships before the covid thing but on three  X cruises (2 on the Summit, one on the Equinox) this year we were kind of disappointed with the food and service. We went back to RCI for a late Nov/early Dec cruise on a Voyager class ship and it was very nice. Didn't really miss much of what the Oasis class offers.  We are on a Radiance class ship in Feb. Looking forward to it.  Except for maybe taking grand kids some day, I probably will not do an Oasis class again. Have no desire to do an Icon class either.

[steverk]

8 hours ago, mac66 said:

As I get older I appreciate the smaller ships more with the less hectic/crowded activities on board. We kind of switched to Celebrity ships before the covid thing but on three  X cruises (2 on the Summit, one on the Equinox) this year we were kind of disappointed with the food and service. We went back to RCI for a late Nov/early Dec cruise on a Voyager class ship and it was very nice. Didn't really miss much of what the Oasis class offers.  We are on a Radiance class ship in Feb. Looking forward to it.  Except for maybe taking grand kids some day, I probably will not do an Oasis class again. Have no desire to do an Icon class either.

I'm totally with you. I've now sailed on at least one of every RCI class that are still in service.  Freedom and Voyager classes are my absolute favorites. Room enough for activities for everyone.  Small enough to still be friendly and intimate. 

I hope RCI creates something similar as they age out. As twangster mentions, there's plenty of reasons why they might not. I hold there are reasons that they might. Only time will tell. 

[foxrunner]

45 minutes ago, steverk said:

I'm totally with you. I've now sailed on at least one of every RCI class that are still in service.  Freedom and Voyager classes are my absolute favorites. Room enough for activities for everyone.  Small enough to still be friendly and intimate. 

I hope RCI creates something similar as they age out. As twangster mentions, there's plenty of reasons why they might not. I hold there are reasons that they might. Only time will tell. 

We have only sailed the big girls for the following reasons. We want longer cruises and have a school schedule. I'd like to see the intermediate ships that you are talking about go on 7 day cruises with more interesting itineraries. We live in the North East and that is also a gating factor. 

[mac66]

57 minutes ago, steverk said:

I'm totally with you. I've now sailed on at least one of every RCI class that are still in service.  Freedom and Voyager classes are my absolute favorites. Room enough for activities for everyone.  Small enough to still be friendly and intimate. 

I hope RCI creates something similar as they age out. As twangster mentions, there's plenty of reasons why they might not. I hold there are reasons that they might. Only time will tell. 

I think there is a noticeable difference between crews on the Oasis class and smaller ships. The crews on the smaller ships seem to be tighter, friendlier, more together. The bigger ship crews seem to be more impersonal and remote. Perhaps there is more stress or more work on the bigger ships.