Finally: CDC Drops Cruise Travel Health Notice

[Amber F]

On 3/30/2022 at 3:32 PM, Matt said:

Thanks.

I just don't see the cruise lines getting rid of vaccine or testing requirements. It has worked so well, even during Omicron's peak. That's a safety net I don't see the cruise lines giving up.

Not to mention not one cruise line has even hinted at dropping these requirements. 

I love the CDC dropping the warning. Should have been done months ago, but proof is in the pudding with the lack of cases.

@Matt I agree with you on this, however, as of today the Cruise with Confidence program has ended, which is what I have a BIG problem with. How can they keep protocols such as pre-cruise testing (and denying boarding if positive), yet keep our money if we are unable to sail?   We wouldn’t even know if we are positive until 2 days before per their requirement. Per their old guidelines, NO REFUND. And let’s think about all the illnesses besides Covid that were kept off ships due to the Cruise with Confidence program. If someone was not feeling well but didn’t have Covid, the program made it much more appealing to KEEP YOUR GERMS at home since there was no financial penalty. Now…..many more people are going to board that ship so they don’t lose their hard-earned vacation dollars, sick or not. 

[BrianB]

Royal's balance is easy to see. The current business model is working. People are booking and sailing. As they increase the supply of available cabins, demand fills them. Royal is able to continue with protocols already in place and accepted as normal by the majority of cruisers. Many potential cruisers who were on the fence, probably feel somewhat more confident that the current protocols are working and the cruise lines are really working to prevent and manage infections. Repeat cruisers see the obvious relaxing of protocols over time and the return to more normal, pre-Covid cruising.
After seeing the CDC vehemently and repeatedly condemn cruising for the last two years…and now backing away…gives the perception that the CDC now tacitly approves of cruising…or at least finally recognizes that cruising is only as risky as all other forms of travel or gatherings.
There is no need for Royal to throw caution to the wind as there is always the threat of a new ‘variant’ on the horizon. It’s easier to tweak current protocols than to have to suddenly reinstate those that have been removed. As long as passengers continue to book, I don’t see Royal risking major protocol changes…not just yet. In my opinion….

[gatorskin76]

1 hour ago, BrianB said:

Royal's balance is easy to see. The current business model is working. People are booking and sailing. As they increase the supply of available cabins, demand fills them. Royal is able to continue with protocols already in place and accepted as normal by the majority of cruisers. Many potential cruisers who were on the fence, probably feel somewhat more confident that the current protocols are working and the cruise lines are really working to prevent and manage infections. Repeat cruisers see the obvious relaxing of protocols over time and the return to more normal, pre-Covid cruising.
After seeing the CDC vehemently and repeatedly condemn cruising for the last two years…and now backing away…gives the perception that the CDC now tacitly approves of cruising…or at least finally recognizes that cruising is only as risky as all other forms of travel or gatherings.
There is no need for Royal to throw caution to the wind as there is always the threat of a new ‘variant’ on the horizon. It’s easier to tweak current protocols than to have to suddenly reinstate those that have been removed. As long as passengers continue to book, I don’t see Royal risking major protocol changes…not just yet. In my opinion….

and they may not, and you may be right, but I wonder if the internal financial discussions are as rosy as you have laid out.  I have two cruises worth of FCC's on hand.  One booked in June and one yet to come.  They aren't on cruise control from a financial perspective.

[Bigpimp]

RCL will end the pre-cruise covid test for vaccinated individuals sooner than later. It’s not a CDC policy so RCL can end it when they want and like someone stated since cruise with confidence has ended they will have no choice but to drop the pre-cruise covid test for vaccinated individuals due to not being able to get your money back anymore if you test positive. 

[smokeybandit]

There's likely still a big portion of potential cruisers who don't want to cruise due to protocols, vaccinations specifically.  Still likely a lot of cruises being booked with FCCs, not new money

The protocols are and will continue to be a big burden on the passengers, crew and cruise lines, even if covid issues on board are low.

Many people have been going about their normal lives without needing testing, masks or to show vax cards or anything else for many months.

There will come a breaking point for all of this.

[AspiringCruisePlanner]

45 minutes ago, gatorskin76 said:

I have two cruises worth of FCC's on hand.  One booked in June and one yet to come.  They aren't on cruise control from a financial perspective.

I'm confused why having unredeemed FCC's puts them in a bad financial position.  People who took FCC's for sailings that either Royal or themselves canceled essentially gave Royal an interest free loan that you've agreed to have them pay you back via a discount on a future sailing that must happen within a relatively short timeframe.  With FCC's, the cruise line comes out ahead.  They are basically gift certificates.  People buying gift certificates doesn't put a company out of business.  A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Also, FCC's are a good marketing tool because people are more likely to upgrade to a higher stateroom category than they originally purchased because the out-of-pocket cost for doing so is small in comparison to when they originally booked.

I'm not saying Royal is financially stable, I'm just saying FCC's are not going to be something that puts them under.

[gatorskin76]

29 minutes ago, AspiringCruisePlanner said:

I'm confused why having unredeemed FCC's puts them in a bad financial position.  People who took FCC's for sailings that either Royal or themselves canceled essentially gave Royal an interest free loan that you've agreed to have them pay you back via a discount on a future sailing that must happen within a relatively short timeframe.  With FCC's, the cruise line comes out ahead.  They are basically gift certificates.  People buying gift certificates doesn't put a company out of business.  A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Also, FCC's are a good marketing tool because people are more likely to upgrade to a higher stateroom category than they originally purchased because the out-of-pocket cost for doing so is small in comparison to when they originally booked.

I'm not saying Royal is financially stable, I'm just saying FCC's are not going to be something that puts them under.

The interest free loan part of it was certainly beneficial for them at the time, since otherwise they would have had no revenue.  However, at this point they have robbed Peter to pay Paul.  If they have a cruise leaving in September 2022 and half their capacity are people using FCC's (paid out at 125% of the original value in a lot of cases), then that's not new revenue for them, that's money they have already accounted for.  Also, once those FCC's run out, they will see what the true demand is for cruising from "paying" customers.

[Ampurp85]

I am confused as to why people like to bring up what protocols are and aren't in place for regular life, as an example of deterrents, when it comes to cruising. I also don't buy the argument that these protocols are going to affect the bottom line as a whole. 

I am not at a restaurant, grocery store or theme park for 4+ days straight. These ships are close contact for multiple hours straight, to destinations that aren't as up to date with the same percent of vax status or medical infrastructures. We all know we can't take the average person at their word, so testing has to be a thing. I would be sure that vax status would go before testing. 

 

[TXcruzer]

1 hour ago, gatorskin76 said:

The interest free loan part of it was certainly beneficial for them at the time, since otherwise they would have had no revenue.  However, at this point they have robbed Peter to pay Paul.  If they have a cruise leaving in September 2022 and half their capacity are people using FCC's (paid out at 125% of the original value in a lot of cases), then that's not new revenue for them, that's money they have already accounted for.  Also, once those FCC's run out, they will see what the true demand is for cruising from "paying" customers.

I don’t think as many people took FCC as you believe did. The 125% FCC was short lived and there were even fewer taking that. 
A quick glance at the last 2 quarters SEC filings will show you that case flowing in is relatively let strong, and growing incrementally. FCCs do not show up that way on the balance sheet. 

[smokeybandit]

26 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

These ships are close contact for multiple hours straight,

 

These ships are not sardine cans. People are not cramped in the same location for hours on end.   That's what the CDC wants you to think since they're lumped in with jails and nursing homes. I kept tabs on close contacts last week on my cruise just out of curiosity. I don't believe I was in any more contact with people than I would have been on a typical day (if I still worked in an office). my wife for sure has a lot more close contacts in her daily life than on a cruise ship. As do many occupations.

Plus restaurants, grocery stores and theme parks don't have the cleaning protocols or HVAC systems that ships do.

 

 

[Matt]

6 hours ago, Amber F said:

How can they keep protocols such as pre-cruise testing (and denying boarding if positive), yet keep our money if we are unable to sail?

First, the policy that refunds you if you test positive and are denied boarding is still in place through at least end March 2023.

Quote

100% cruise fare refund for you, and your Travelling Party, if any of you tests positive for COVID-19 within 10 days prior to the cruise or at the boarding terminal, for cruises departing on or before March 31, 2023.

Source: https://www.royalcaribbean.com/faq/questions/if-i-test-positive-for-sars-cov-2-what-is-your-refund-policy-and-costs-covered

Second, I think if we've learned anything over last 6+ months it's that there is some level of uncertainty, and ignorance isn't an excuse for not at least understanding what you're getting yourself into.  Granted, I'm sure lots of people that don't cruise a lot don't follow this stuff and may end up surprised, but that's no different than other ignorance with other forms of travel ("Sorry folks, moose out front should have told you we're closed" kind of situations).

 If the changing policies is such a concern for you that you think there's a chance you'd cancel if they regressed, I'd advise holding off booking for now until things calm down more. The good news is we're not in July 2021 and Covid appears to be getting weaker and weaker, but it's still going to cause ripple effects in travel for some time. I'm okay cruising despite it, but others perhaps not.

 

[gatorskin76]

41 minutes ago, TXcruzer said:

I don’t think as many people took FCC as you believe did. The 125% FCC was short lived and there were even fewer taking that. 
A quick glance at the last 2 quarters SEC filings will show you that case flowing in is relatively let strong, and growing incrementally. FCCs do not show up that way on the balance sheet. 

Once again I will have to say, if you say so.  Short lived....they were cancelling cruises through June 2021.  You certainly are an advocate for how well they are doing, I would suggest buying some more stock would be in order.

[TXcruzer]

6 minutes ago, gatorskin76 said:

Once again I will have to say, if you say so.  Short lived....they were cancelling cruises through June 2021.  You certainly are an advocate for how well they are doing, I would suggest buying some more stock would be in order.

I am aware that they were cancelling cruises through June 2021, I had over a dozen cancelled myself, but after the first few months, people stopped taking the FCC in great numbers and the amount of refunds rose dramatically; again all this information can be found in the SEC quarterlies. (4th qtr 2020-1st qtr 2021 or so would be my guess) 

All you have to do, as i said, is look at the SEC filings.  It is all in black and white, including the liabilities that the unused FCC constitutes.

I don't play the stock game, no need for that stress in my life.

[BrianB]

I’m on cruise number fifteen since September…all out of Bayonne. I’ve seen the onboard protocols change as cases suddenly increased and decreased over that time. I think Royal’s reaction to the changes has been reasoned, measured and effective. Even though people didn’t like masking up everywhere again, and it probably caused more cancellations, Royal still followed their health experts. Seeing the steps that Royal has taken to mitigate, as much as possible, the spread of the infection…gives me the confidence to keep on cruising. I have talked to many other passengers over this time and virtually all have the same attitude as me…we do our due diligence, know the protocols and the risks, and make our choice. I’m thinking the only thing holding back full capacity is the availability of qualified crew members. But in terms of cruisers…from my perspective, onboard over the past eight months…there is no lack of enthusiasm for cruising. Just my opinion.

[Midwest Cruiser]

 

From Royal CEO on March 30th At CLIA 360

Bayley added: “I think from everything we’ve learned about the CDC, who tend to guide a lot of this, is that when they really believe that it’s really moving from a pandemic to endemic, when they really believe that the positivity rates have declined to such a degree that it really poses no risk, I think that’s when we’re going to start seeing the government and governments start removing these testing requirements ... I think we’re going to see that probably by the summer.”

 

https://www.travelpulse.com/news/cruise/cruise-line-presidents-provide-update-on-cruising-current-events.html

[smokeybandit]

They just took 89 countries off of Level 4 status, too.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2022/04/18/cdc-travel-advisory-level-4-list/7358429001/