Harmony caused a SpaceX scrub

[KevinJ]

Harmony just caused SpaceX to scrub their launch by being in the exclusion zone...

[CGTLH]

Quote from: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/space/os-bz-spacex-launch-falcon-9-canaveral-cosmo-skymed-20220127-6ftn7qys2ne2phxbmuwumaefle-story.html

Sunday’s weather was looking great, but as the live stream began ahead of a 6:11 p.m. target liftoff, SpaceX commentator Jesse Anderson said a cruise ship was approaching a no-go zone, and the U.S. Coast Guard was in contact with the ship. Royal Caribbean’s Harmony of the Seas was at sea off the coast of Brevard County ahead of the launch after having departed Port Canaveral Sunday afternoon, according to cruisemapper.com.

[cdixon22]

What’s the big deal. There is a helipad on board Harmony if they needed to land. Just saying. 

[KWofPerth]

How does this happen??

[PMaul]

7 hours after Harmony of the Seas caused a scrubbed launch I got notified that our March shore excursion to Kennedy Space Center was scrubbed.  Coincidence?

[MattG]

This is a bigger deal than normal, because the Stage 1 booster was doing an RTLS (Return to Landing Site), and the entire launch corridor needs to remain clear not just for ascent, but for return as well. 

I'm also disappointed because this launch had been scrubbed the past two consecutive days, and the weather was PERFECT, not just for a normal launch, but because the booster was coming back to land, the boostback burn was going to provide some awesome upper-level atmospheric highlights. It would have been an INCREDIBLE show for the guests on Harmony (and anyone in Port Canaveral), but unfortunately it wasn't meant to be. 

Scrub to 1:35 in this video for what was expected:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrTXGIkyPNc

 

[twangster]

Some news media are blaming the MSC Meraviglia.  It was departing the port in the minute before liftoff and would have been in the exclusion zone during the rocket's ascent.  

[MattG]

12 minutes ago, twangster said:

Some news media are blaming the MSC Meraviglia.  It was departing the port in the minute before liftoff and would have been in the exclusion zone during the rocket's ascent.  

I heard a report that MSC Meraviglia was stopped in the channel, waiting until it was clear to proceed. Harmony was well out of the channel. Aren't there pilot boats for these sorts of things? 

[twangster]

11 minutes ago, MattG said:

I heard a report that MSC Meraviglia was stopped in the channel, waiting until it was clear to proceed. Harmony was well out of the channel. Aren't there pilot boats for these sorts of things? 

I don't think they'd hold a ship in the channel, they'd keep it at the dock.  Channel is narrow and a ship at rest is subject to wind and currents.  The forward motion is what keeps them safe.  The exclusion zone lasts an hour or so after liftoff as the first stage booster comes back down.  I don't see them holding a ship in the channel for an hour.

[JasonOasis]

13 hours ago, KWofPerth said:

How does this happen??

Exactly how did this happen?  Sunday is a huge turn around day at Port Canaveral why was the launch rescheduled during what would have been normal departure times for cruise ship?  Or if NASA and Space X have priority why wasn't Port Canaveral and the cruise ships advised to delay their departure because there are several articles claiming there was a second cruise ship other than Harmony that would have been near the exclusion zone during the time in question as well.   

[Matt]

First, this is a private company impacting another private company. Space launches are cool, but far from the end of the world to have to push back what has become a routine operation.

Second, cruise ships don't go and do whatever they want in port. The port and US Coast Guard approves departures. More importantly, ships have the harbor pilot onboard to navigate the port area until a ship gets out to the open ocean.

Cruise ship isn't to "blame". It's the port and coast guard who didn't direct the ship properly and/or time the departure properly.

[ChrisK2793]

Local CBS Orlando news just now ….. they didn’t say which company or ship

 

[smokeybandit]

From the article, a cruise ship was merely nearing the area, not actually in it.

[MattG]

38 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

why was the launch rescheduled during what would have been normal departure times for cruise ship

This is two of my words colliding (spaceflight and cruising), so this is gonna be fun: 

The launch customer (the company that hires SpaceX to put the payload into orbit) dictates the launch time, which typically aligns with some other entity (for instance, an ISS cargo re-supply MUST launch at a precise time to most efficiently catch up with ISS). These launch windows are typically instantaneous, meaning you can't hold and wait for even a few minutes, because the object you want to catch up to has already flown by. Additionally, it's very difficult to "hold" a countdown, mainly due to fuel constraints. Rocket fuel is stored at incredibly low temperatures, and as it's pouring through the ambient fill lines and fuel tanks, begins to boil off. This is why a Falcon 9 has so much fog around it immediately preceding the launch. SpaceX practically "overfills" the tanks, because they account for a certain amount of boil-off during fuel loading. They also load fuel right up to 90 seconds before launch. When T-0 hits, SpaceX knows how much fuel is on-board, how much has boiled off, etc. If there's any kind of hold, the fuel continues to boil off, which affects launch weight (it gets lighter) and, more importantly, could impact how long the rocket fires. Less fuel = lower velocity = lower target orbit. Some Space Shuttle launches could hold because the External Tank was INCREDIBLY well insulated and kept fuel colder for longer, but also because some Shuttle missions were self-contained (not rendezvousing with another orbital object) and the launch window could flex. 

 

38 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

 Or if NASA and Space X have priority why wasn't Port Canaveral and the cruise ships advised to delay their departure because there are several articles claiming there was a second cruise ship other than Harmony that would have been near the exclusion zone during the time in question as well.   

The other component that the launch customer can dictate is "azimuth", or basically the direction of the launch. When NASA/SpaceX launches to ISS, they basically launch up the east coast to intercept the orbit of ISS. More recently, SpaceX has been launching in a more easterly manner, and even directly south into polar orbits (polar orbits used to be exclusively the domain of the west coast launch facility, Vandenberg AFB). SpaceX has proven that they can safely launch the first stage over the ocean, then "dog-leg" the second stage over land where, if a failure were to occur, the ballistic trajectory would put it into the Caribbean. 

Here's a Google Maps overlay showing launch trajectory/azimuth. They really thread the needle here:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=1Kl-SydwGM7KVkBIl_-88qIZeYPy1t7HV&ll=26.11030793705532%2C-79.11965267822265&z=7

 

[KevinJ]

Based on that map it looks like Harmony was in the exclusion zone. The MSC ship holding at the mouth of the port would have been outside of it. Sure seems like some failure of communication took place, the launch was known 24 hours in advance. If Harmony gone north from the port they would have been OK, but that is the more traditional exclusion area.  

[MattG]

9 minutes ago, KevinJ said:

Based on that map it looks like Harmony was in the exclusion zone. The MSC ship holding at the mouth of the port would have been outside of it. Sure seems like some failure of communication took place, the launch was known 24 hours in advance. If Harmony gone north from the port they would have been OK, but that is the more traditional exclusion area.  

On the SpaceX sub-reddit for this launch, someone posted that they were listening into the maritime radio channels and heard chatter between USCG and Harmony prior to the abort/scrub, so there seems to have been communication in place. 

Another redditor overlayed the exclusion zones and Harmony's ground track, and it appears to have encroached. I wish I could find that overlay, but I can't seem to right now. 

[Mike.s]

17 hours ago, KevinJ said:

Harmony just caused SpaceX to scrub their launch by being in the exclusion zone...

Cruising seems to get blamed for everything

 

[LovetoCruise87]

I do believe that this is the first time that a launch has been scrubbed due to a cruise ship. Most other times it is due to pleasure craft or an aircraft

[smokeybandit]

To make up for it the Icon class ship will be named Elon of the Seas.

[twangster]

It is an interesting dilemma and conflict.  SpaceX is a private company launching a rocket at a precise time.   Cruise lines are private companies that depart at a specific time.  Delaying a cruise ship causes it to burn more fuel to make up the lost time at sea.

Should SpaceX have priority to make last minute schedule changes that cause another private company to incur extra expenses?  

With SpaceX launching so frequently now this will likely come up again.

[MattG]

9 minutes ago, twangster said:

It is an interesting dilemma and conflict.  SpaceX is a private company launching a rocket at a precise time.   Cruise lines are private companies that depart at a specific time.  Delaying a cruise ship causes it to burn more fuel to make up the lost time at sea.

Should SpaceX have priority to make last minute schedule changes that cause another private company to incur extra expenses?  

I do know these secondary launch windows are built into the overall NASA/CCAFB schedule - while it's rare to push a launch to it's fourth "alternate" date, it is public info.

9 minutes ago, twangster said:

With SpaceX launching so frequently now this will likely come up again.

Agreed, however there are a few limiting factors:

• RTLS launches are rare, as they require the payload to be light enough for the booster to have enough fuel for the return. I do believe the RTLS attribute contributed to a stricter range/exclusion zone, and factored into the scrub. 
• SpaceX only has two recovery vessels on the east coast, so they are limited on launch/recovery cadence (unless they squeeze more performance out of the Falcon 9 to do more RTLS)
• The exclusion zone out of Port Canaveral did leave room along the shore for ships to travel. This would have been a non-issue if Harmony had hugged the shore a bit more. 

[Jzx1103]

Funny thing, I was at a friend's house yesterday and he's fascinated by Space X and was watching the space X rocket launch live. I jokingly said "Well its Sunday, watch a cruise ship getting in the way and they have to cancel lol" surely enough 1 minute later, thats exactly what happens.

[MuttMutt]

One of the issues is the way they were launching the rocket is different than what has done in a while. I believe it was said that this launch corridor hasn't been used since the 60's. The were NOTAM's and NOTMAR's issued but someone dropped the ball. 

 

One of the biggest issue's with this launch corridor however is that it basically runs the entire coast. So a ship in port effectively has to sit there till released and anything on the water has to stay around 10 miles away from the coast. It's been mentioned that these are both private companies and are both spending cash to sit around. I think they are going to have to make some way for them both to go about their business and neither one should take a monetary hit. 

[smokeybandit]

What punishment would there be for a vessel to stray into this restricted zone. Any at all?

[Thorntor]

If I were in the paving business and I had to dig up a highway starting on a given day and that date changed, I would be responsible for ENSURING that the department of transportation was fully notified so that detours could be implemented at the appropriate time.  Sounds like someone did not follow up properly to insure that impacted stakeholders were informed and that stakeholders were prepared to alter their operations, even on a weekend.  Just sending out a notification is not the same as “fully coordinated.”

[Matt]

“We are seeing more of this and we’re going to see more of it in the future. Because you have the busiest, most-successful spaceport in the world immediately adjacent to the second busiest cruise port in the world."

Thought that quote from Space Florida is well said.

In the end, this is one of those "I only read the headline" articles that gets buzz without any substance.

There were three consecutive bad weather days that resulted in delays. Delays with space launches are part of the game.

[BrianB]

But most importantly…did the rocket test negative for Covid two days before departure date?

[smokeybandit]

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2022/01/31/coast-guard-starts-investigation-of-royal-caribbean-ship-that-caused-spacex-scrub/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wkmg6&fbclid=IwAR2XVEnWBD3UelQGJOrCzpWBf2ermEtU10GQLhDxAvdGxfZ3D7-oNBS0E3I

 

Sure seems like SpaceX and sailing vessels are going to have some words.  "We're going to launch more, so you ships are going to have to follow our rules more" doesn't sound like something that'll go over well

[cdixon22]

5 hours ago, BrianB said:

But most importantly…did the rocket test negative for Covid two days before departure date?

Must not have got back results in time. Think they will get FCC  from Royal?

[smokeybandit]

5 hours ago, BrianB said:

But most importantly…did the rocket test negative for Covid two days before departure date?

No but they did take advantage of the Launch with Confidence program

[SimGuy]

The departure schedule for ships leaving from Port Canaveral are published many, many months in advance. 

SpaceX and NASA screwed the pooch by neglecting to avoid a scheduling conflict. The original launch was in fact scheduled for Saturday but was rescheduled to Sunday due to weather. Harmony was always scheduled to depart on Sunday, weather be damned.

[MrMarc]

On 2/1/2022 at 1:42 PM, smokeybandit said:

No but they did take advantage of the Launch with Confidence program

Free Viagra?

[twangster]

On 2/1/2022 at 6:39 PM, SimGuy said:

The departure schedule for ships leaving from Port Canaveral are published many, many months in advance. 

SpaceX and NASA screwed the pooch by neglecting to avoid a scheduling conflict. The original launch was in fact scheduled for Saturday but was rescheduled to Sunday due to weather. Harmony was always scheduled to depart on Sunday, weather be damned.

There was no scheduling conflict.

The truth is that Royal could have departed the port and not caused a SpaceX scrub.  All they had to do was sail a Southerly course to avoid the maritime exclusion zone before resuming their normal departure vector.  

If it was impossible for a ship to depart Port Canaveral and not avoid the exclusion area the USCG would have closed the port.  The USCG did not close the port because it was possible for both activities to occur so there was no scheduling conflict.

The USCG can create an exclusion zone for any number of reasons.  If a tanker ship is leaking crude oil and floating without power the USCG can create an exclusion zone on a moments notice and all other ships are supposed to avoid that area for example.  Royal basically failed to account for the exclusion zone.  They sailed right into it.  

The exclusion zone is created by the USCG not SpaceX.  The USCG could create an exclusion zone for a military live fire exercise for example.  Sailing into an exclusion zone during a naval live fire exercise could be disastrous.  

Ignoring a USCG exclusion zone is serious stuff.  The USCG broadcasts the exclusion zone on marine channel 16 every few minutes.  A personal watercraft owner with a marine radio would be called an idiot for entering the maritime exclusion zone on that day.  

The heart of the issue is how did professional mariners end up making such a significant mistake?  A bridge crew on a ship is comprised of several highly trained professional mariners all of whom have spent years at sea.  How is it that not a single one of them took into account the exclusion zone which is sent to ships of this size on a automated basis through a subscription service.  Even if the automation of the notification failed, why were the numerous USCG verbal messages broadcast on marine channel 16 ignored?  

For every departure and arrival the bridge crew hold a meeting and work through the planned activities.  They are supposed to discuss exactly this sort of detail for that day.   

How is it that this bridge crew completely missed the exclusion zone? 

That will be the heart of the investigation.  

[Cruise4TheSoul]

On 1/31/2022 at 9:12 AM, MattG said:

I heard a report that MSC Meraviglia was stopped in the channel, waiting until it was clear to proceed. Harmony was well out of the channel. Aren't there pilot boats for these sorts of things? 

We were on the Meraviglia and were on our way out of port during the scheduled launch. We were still in the port channel at 6:11. The ship was well aware of the launch as we were told to go up on deck and watch. There is a large message sign at the port entrance that warns mariners that a launch is scheduled. Harmony's crew definitely would have seen that.

[barbeyg]

6 hours ago, twangster said:

How is it that this bridge crew completely missed the exclusion zone? 

That will be the heart of the investigation.  

Thank you. I have no doubt this entire bridge staff is on the hot seat with Corporate right now. These exclusion zones are for the safety of vessels, and this was no ‘accident’. At best, someone did not do their job properly, at worst it was gross neglect.  The fine for this could be hefty, wiping any profit from the sailing, and all the ship needed to do was to maneuver a bit further south.  There was a path available without breaching the zone that they had to know about since the USCG message on the zone is published on the emergency channel every 5 minutes for 2 hours before launch. 

[IGSCH]

On 2/5/2022 at 9:58 AM, barbeyg said:

Thank you. I have no doubt this entire bridge staff is on the hot seat with Corporate right now. These exclusion zones are for the safety of vessels, and this was no ‘accident’. At best, someone did not do their job properly, at worst it was gross neglect.  The fine for this could be hefty, wiping any profit from the sailing, and all the ship needed to do was to maneuver a bit further south.  There was a path available without breaching the zone that they had to know about since the USCG message on the zone is published on the emergency channel every 5 minutes for 2 hours before launch. 

The fine is going to be somewhere between 100000USD and 200000USD for violating a maritime exclusion zone + potential civil penalties if SpaceX sues RCL.

[barjpoe]

Was there a pilot on board? If so wouldn't he/she been aware of the exclusion zone. Or had they already dropped the pilot off? 

[smokeybandit]

With multiple launch windows, is a captain expected to honor the exclusion zone for every launch window, even after the rocket launches?

Or, worded another way, whose responsibility is it to reaffirm the exclusion zones on a subsequent launch day after an aborted attempt?

[barbeyg]

On 2/10/2022 at 12:14 PM, smokeybandit said:

With multiple launch windows, is a captain expected to honor the exclusion zone for every launch window, even after the rocket launches?

Or, worded another way, whose responsibility is it to reaffirm the exclusion zones on a subsequent launch day after an aborted attempt?

It is my understanding that NASA announces and the USCG enforces.

Here is an example of the announcement, made well enough in advance for the ships to avoid the exclusion zones:

https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/releases/2008/release-20080201.html

The big deal, IMHO, is that this is published for several hours before launch, every 5 minutes on the emergency channel used by all mariners. This gives those plotting courses plenty of time to change course. In this case, the staff of Harmony should have taken this up in their usual meetings before sailing, since someone on ships is always monitoring that channel.  This was also avoidable by a simple change of course. They didn’t have to delay sailing, even though they were already running behind. If the USCG decides to fine RCI for this disregard of the exclusion zone, the fine is hefty. Even if the USCG delayed warning the HOTS to move out of the exclusion zone, the HOTS staff is still responsible since they should have been monitoring the emergency channel for those hours before sailing, and changed course.  I cringed when I first heard about this happening. 

One final note, this was a big month for rocket launches. There were published announcements, for all vessels, about the large number of launches in January, and mariners were advised to stay informed.  No matter what, the ship had the info necessary to avoid this.

[smokeybandit]

New launch protocols in the wake of this

 

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2022/05/11/after-cruise-ship-scrubs-spacex-launch-coast-guard-fast-tracks-changes/9720954002/