Michael Bayley update re: capacity and omicron

[smokeybandit]

So ! Update time ! We now have 21 ships back in operation, 40,000 crew back to work all fully vaccinated and all now receiving their booster shots and over 50,000 to 60,000 guests a week sailing with us all fully vaccinated (over 12) and increasingly the 5 to 12 year olds are getting vaccinated. We have also been managing capacity from our start up in July with 20 to 30 per cent average load factors increasing approx 10 per cent a month to approx 70 to 80 per cent in December. Our normal year full year load factor is approx 110 per cent. (3rd and 4th berth occupancy which is normally kids)

 

With a typical sailing having anywhere from 95 to 98 per cent fully vaccinated onboard population and all guests tested before boarding and all crew tested weekly with front of house staff now being tested every 3 days and everyone wearing masks the vast majority of the time, along with social distancing, sanitizing etc we now have a “positivity” rate way below the national rate and way below our big home port states such as Florida, California, Texas etc and way below Broward and Miami Dade in Florida the two counties that are home to of our biggest home ports of Miami and Port Everglades.

 

So what are we seeing now ! With the new variant ! Please note this is my observation only and is not in anyway, any kind of medical or scientific or political statement. Just letting you know what we are seeing !

 

We are seeing increases in positivity rates with some ships currently close to 1 per cent (please note Florida positivity rate is 5 per cent which is pretty good relative to others) and recently Symphony of the Seas was in the media spotlight with 48 positive cases (mainly guests) which was less than 1 per cent of the onboard population (for example 1 per cent positivity rate is 60 people from a onboard population of 6,000). Also Odyssey of the Seas has 50 positive cases mainly crew with a onboard population of over 5,000 plus, so approx 1 per cent positivity rate.

 

What else do we see ! 98 per cent plus of positive cases are with the fully vaccinated and 99 per cent plus are asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms often surprised they are positive at all. It really does seem as though the virus (if vaccinated) has morphed to something more like a mild cold ! (Second notice this is not in anyway a statement based on science but simply what we are seeing and hearing from our operations in this environment).

As all this continues we see various destinations responding to their concern over the new variant which has resulted in isolated cases of ports closing temporarily for cruise access if either the destination or the ship has elevated positivity rates.

 

On the good news side of things ! Guest satisfaction is sky high ! Lots of very happy guests enjoying wonderful cruise vacations in a safe (relative to any other options) and fun way. The crew (God bless them all) have been through all kinds of obstacles and difficulties and are now back doing what they love to do do and are now able to care for and support their families back home.

 

So my hope is

this really is the beginning of the end of this virus and what we are seeing is its morphing to fast spread and less harmful like the common cold ! (If vaccinated).

So here is hope as we move into year 3 of this terrible period that 2022 will be the end of this all and life will return to a happy normal where we worry about stuff like kids schooling, car problems, bills and wot not ! And more importantly we look forward to happy times and glorious adventures across the oceans and seas of this beautiful planet.

 

So to all of our Guests, Crew, Employees, Travel and Destination partners I wish you Happy Holidays and Merry Xmas and a happy, healthy New Year to you and your families.

----------------------------------------------

I think everyone can put to rest concerns of any cruises being canceled based on that

[Candocruises]

We just got off Allure on 12/19 and started hearing rumors on the last night of the cruise that a more stringent mask policy would be enforced on the next sailing.  During this 8 day cruise nearly everyone grudgingly complied with the existing marks policy, however capacity limits on the elevators, in public bathrooms, etc were somewhat ignored by most passengers.  It was great being back at sea but the reductions in activities and shows was disappointing.  Like you I am not a “medically qualified” professional but the assessment that the new variant is little more than a common cold is right on.  It’s to bad that the media and certain bureaucratic dynasties continue to fan the flames of Covid hysteria at the expense of our country, the cruising industry being a microcosm of the deleterious results we must endure in order to enjoy our lives.  There never has been nor will there ever be a virus free event among groups of people living their normal daily lives.  Sail on!!

 

 

 

[cruisellama]

Would like to see the statistics of those who tested positive and flew to the port city.  Is the 2day test requirement too long?  Should it be 1 day or day of?

[Barb Berrie]

Does anyone know whether RCL is still doing PCR tests on the ships for those who need a negative test to get back into their country ie Canada? I saw the announcement that his free testing would stop on Jan 6th or thereabouts. Will the tests still be available on the ships but now you have to pay or are they not doing testing at all? 

[twangster]

44 minutes ago, Barb Berrie said:

Does anyone know whether RCL is still doing PCR tests on the ships for those who need a negative test to get back into their country ie Canada? I saw the announcement that his free testing would stop on Jan 6th or thereabouts. Will the tests still be available on the ships but now you have to pay or are they not doing testing at all? 

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/12/20/royal-caribbean-will-stop-offering-onboard-covid-19-tests-international-passengers

 

[Pattycruise]

On 12/23/2021 at 11:44 AM, cruisellama said:

Would like to see the statistics of those who tested positive and flew to the port city.  Is the 2day test requirement too long?  Should it be 1 day or day of?

Honestly, testing is not going to stop much.  You are negative the day of the test, negative 2 days before, 1 day before or even day of does not mean you aren't carrying the virus, it means you aren't positive at that time.  I read an article that Omicron is extremely fast moving....testing positive within days of exposure.  Assuming that is correct, and it seems to make sense given the #'s, then there's not much that can be done.  Thankfully it is low on the symptoms and I believe one death associated in the US-to a person with some underlying health issues.  But I agree, I would love to see the statistics.  On my cruise out of Bahamas in August we all had to test on Day 5 (or 6?)....I can't imagine how high those numbers would be if they all had to test!  RC was smart to stop offering tests to those flying home, it will cut their positive Covid rate.  (I think it is WRONG they stopped offering what they had promised)

[cruisellama]

Currently on the Azamara Quest.  100% vaxed and all tested at embarkation.  Everyone tested on day 6, and 12 positive cases (no crew cases).   So no stopping it even with mitigations including masks.   All 12 asymptomatic. I think we all test again before Barbados. (517 passengers on board)

[Charlayne]

On 12/23/2021 at 10:38 AM, Candocruises said:

We just got off Allure on 12/19 and started hearing rumors on the last night of the cruise that a more stringent mask policy would be enforced on the next sailing.  During this 8 day cruise nearly everyone grudgingly complied with the existing marks policy, however capacity limits on the elevators, in public bathrooms, etc were somewhat ignored by most passengers.  It was great being back at sea but the reductions in activities and shows was disappointing.  Like you I am not a “medically qualified” professional but the assessment that the new variant is little more than a common cold is right on.  It’s to bad that the media and certain bureaucratic dynasties continue to fan the flames of Covid hysteria at the expense of our country, the cruising industry being a microcosm of the deleterious results we must endure in order to enjoy our lives.  There never has been nor will there ever be a virus free event among groups of people living their normal daily lives.  Sail on!!

 

 

 

I'm going to be watching the policy VERY closely. We're going on our very first sail Jan 31-Feb 4 on the Adventure, a dream trip my husband has promised me for the 30 years we've been married. Now I see there's another mask mandate. We're 3-shot vaccinated and such. I'm also someone who has panic attacks with the masks. I don't know why, we've worked on it for over a year and I haven't been able to stand one for more than 10 minutes. The stated policy of having areas where fully vaccinated didn't have to mask was one reason why we booked this ship/trip and got that booster just before Christmas. 

I'm hoping this will be a non-problem by then, I don't want to cancel this trip. I'm sitting here almost in tears at the very thought of having to give up this trip because of having to wear a stupid 5x7 piece of cloth.

[teddy]

Straight talk:

If you are flying to the port, wearing a mask while indoors onboard the ship will be the least of your problems. 
 

Masks are mandatory while in airports and planes.  With layovers and delayed flights, the travel day can be very long.   

I don’t see mask mandates going away any time soon. 
 

With your knowledge of how wearing a mask affects you, I think some really intense reflection of whether this is the best time for you to travel is warranted. 

I don’t particularly care to get into any discussion of the pandemic/politics/science/mask mandates, etc.  Cruising at any time is a luxury and is much more so during current times.  I want to cruise, so I agree to follow the rules because I know I am able to follow them.   Those who can’t or won’t follow the rules should find another way to vacation. 

[cruisellama]

Just heard from our Capt on the Quest that the QM2 docked in Barbados has a crew breakout that will prohibit continuing that cruise.  So they’re going to end cruise and fly guests home.  

[smokeybandit]

This says they're just staying in Barbados a couple extra days, skipping NY, until they get replacement crew then head back to England.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/carnival-unit-says-ship-will-not-sail-new-york-amid-omicron-worries-2021-12-29/

 

There's also this, which can't be correct

 

"The CDC starts an investigation if 0.10% or more of passengers on guest voyages test positive for COVID-19."

0.1%?  

[SpeedNoodles]

49 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

This says they're just staying in Barbados a couple extra days, skipping NY, until they get replacement crew then head back to England.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/carnival-unit-says-ship-will-not-sail-new-york-amid-omicron-worries-2021-12-29/

 

There's also this, which can't be correct

 

"The CDC starts an investigation if 0.10% or more of passengers on guest voyages test positive for COVID-19."

0.1%?  

That is correct.  Screenshot from the CDC Cruise Ship web page - note that a ship gains yellow status if ONE crew member tests positive.

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/management/technical-instructions-for-cruise-ships.html#green-ship

 

[smokeybandit]

Well no wonder so many ships are on yellow. 

[smokeybandit]

 

[TXCoastPatriot]

On 12/27/2021 at 10:32 AM, Pattycruise said:

 

Would like to see the statistics of those who tested positive and flew to the port city.  Is the 2day test requirement too long?  Should it be 1 day or day of?

What statistics and why?  Aren’t you vaccinated?

If you are that concerned, wear a couple of masks changing them every few hours, physically distance from everyone, never take the elevator, avoid all restaurants, shows, bars, and casino. 

Otherwise, fear not.  Have a great time and a great cruise.

[Clover18]

On 12/28/2021 at 11:43 PM, GrannyCharlie said:

I'm going to be watching the policy VERY closely. We're going on our very first sail Jan 31-Feb 4 on the Adventure, a dream trip my husband has promised me for the 30 years we've been married. Now I see there's another mask mandate. We're 3-shot vaccinated and such. I'm also someone who has panic attacks with the masks. I don't know why, we've worked on it for over a year and I haven't been able to stand one for more than 10 minutes. The stated policy of having areas where fully vaccinated didn't have to mask was one reason why we booked this ship/trip and got that booster just before Christmas. 

I'm hoping this will be a non-problem by then, I don't want to cancel this trip. I'm sitting here almost in tears at the very thought of having to give up this trip because of having to wear a stupid 5x7 piece of cloth.

Don’t expect to get an exemption from wearing a mask. I hate them a rip mine off my face as soon as I sit down at a table for a drink or am walking outside on the deck. But EVERYWHERE inside you need to wear one. 

[smokeybandit]

This echoes Bayley's comments

 

 

 

[LinRon2]

Before we jump off the deep end, yes...let's compare statistics.  But the comparison should be how many more infections are caught when comparing to 1, 2, or 3 day periods for testing [before embarkation].  That would be the TRUE science [just statistics is what they call SCIENCE these days], and not just irrationally dictating smaller and smaller time periods for testing that are already wholly cumbersome, expensive, and scaring away bookings due to the HORRIBLE stress that's caused.  PERFECT testing would be just minutes prior to boarding, but would that really result in enough 'catches' of the virus to make it practical? Practicality has to be balanced with necessity here; and too often we are seeing necessity being outlandishly proposed by knee jerk thinkers who do not consider the practical, emotional, and resource considerations.  What's real and what's imagined? So far, cruise industry has proved itself to be the safest form of travel with protocols far and away better than other modes of travel. But there is a cost; so let's not get too ridiculous due to how afraid authorities might want to make us [for what is now looking like just another form of the common cold...or so we hope anyway].

 

[cruisellama]

1 hour ago, LinRon2 said:

Before we jump off the deep end, yes...let's compare statistics.  But the comparison should be how many more infections are caught when comparing to 1, 2, or 3 day periods for testing [before embarkation].  That would be the TRUE science [just statistics is what they call SCIENCE these days], and not just irrationally dictating smaller and smaller time periods for testing that are already wholly cumbersome, expensive, and scaring away bookings due to the HORRIBLE stress that's caused.  PERFECT testing would be just minutes prior to boarding, but would that really result in enough 'catches' of the virus to make it practical? Practicality has to be balanced with necessity here; and too often we are seeing necessity being outlandishly proposed by knee jerk thinkers who do not consider the practical, emotional, and resource considerations.  What's real and what's imagined? So far, cruise industry has proved itself to be the safest form of travel with protocols far and away better than other modes of travel. But there is a cost; so let's not get too ridiculous due to how afraid authorities might want to make us [for what is now looking like just another form of the common cold...or so we hope anyway].

 

Our ship was tested immediately before boarding.  1 person of 519 positive.   Two removed, left 517.  After 6 days everyone tested, 12 cases asymptomatic (crew good).  Day 8 , 1 crew +,  3 additional contact isolation.   Visited 4 islands so far, 2 with bubble requirements.  StLucia operator  technically broke bubble when returning to ship.   Mayreau Grenadines cancelled day 8, Barbados next stop is a go.  We’re getting the QM2 parking spot tomorrow.  Inside masking entire cruise.  This ship was GREEN prior to starting this 15 day cruise.

[SpeedNoodles]

On 12/28/2021 at 10:43 PM, GrannyCharlie said:

. I'm also someone who has panic attacks with the masks. I don't know why, we've worked on it for over a year and I haven't been able to stand one for more than 10 minutes.

Just a little detour here - have you tried the KN95 masks that have become fairly popular? While they touch your face around the edge of the mask, they bow outward and do not touch the tip of your nose or your mouth at all, so they don't feel quite so confining?  They also don't muffle speech because they don't rest against your mouth Let me know if you are interested and I will send you a link to the ones I get on Amazon.

[Vancity Cruiser]

5 hours ago, SpeedNoodles said:

Just a little detour here - have you tried the KN95 masks that have become fairly popular? While they touch your face around the edge of the mask, they bow outward and do not touch the tip of your nose or your mouth at all, so they don't feel quite so confining?  They also don't muffle speech because they don't rest against your mouth Let me know if you are interested and I will send you a link to the ones I get on Amazon.

I would like the link please. Would like to order some for our upcoming cruise

[SpeedNoodles]

4 minutes ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

I would like the link please. Would like to order some for our upcoming cruise

https://www.amazon.com/Efficiency≥95-WWDOLL-Protection-Against-Haze-Proof/dp/B08JQNGX19?pd_rd_w=7u5Jt&pf_rd_p=82585345-d4df-49b0-bbc1-c842d1dad3c9&pf_rd_r=PGHZ75SD51G6GCAZP3N3&pd_rd_r=ea0614c0-7834-4d1b-8333-34beb7b9f1b5&pd_rd_wg=ADsBd&pd_rd_i=B08JQNGX19&psc=1&ref_=pd_bap_d_rp_3_t

[BeachGal]

6 hours ago, SpeedNoodles said:

Just a little detour here - have you tried the KN95 masks that have become fairly popular? While they touch your face around the edge of the mask, they bow outward and do not touch the tip of your nose or your mouth at all, so they don't feel quite so confining?  They also don't muffle speech because they don't rest against your mouth Let me know if you are interested and I will send you a link to the ones I get on Amazon.

I've started using them as well.  I struggle to find masks that I can talk in, that don't scoot down my face, and that don't annoy me.  Did double masking on a recent plane trip and used the KN95 under a cloth mask.  I was surprised at how much space my face had (sorry, that sounds a bit silly), but I liked them a whole lot better than the paper or cloth masks.