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Will the increasing numbers of Covid variant infections cause the CDC to extend the CSO on October 31st and how might that affect sailings ?


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We are still a long way off the flu season but all one has to do is pick up a newspaper or look to the news on the internet and he/she will find an article that expounds on the increasing number of Delta infections and the need to possibly reinstate the wearing of masks in many locales.

The current CSO is due to expire on Oct 31st, 2021 and limits sailings out of U.S. ports to 7 nights or less. Each time the CSO has been renewed, it has been for 90 days. I am not sure if that 90 day time frame is written in stone or if it can be modified, however, if it can not be modified, it will restrict sailings at the very least until the end of January.  I believe the TA's along with the 3 consecutive, eleven-night sailings of Anthem out of Bayonne will be affected along with Enchantment sailings out of Baltimore.

After one nine night sailing in February, all the other Anthem 2022 winter sailings are essentially 7 night Bahamas sailings.

I know after speaking with a number of people who, like myself,  have lifted and shifted at least one if not more of their 11 night 2021 cruises to these sailings that we are not looking forward to another cancellation and dealing with RCG math for FCCs. 

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10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

We had a near identical summer surge last year

 

That said, if the cdc can get past the injunction i have no doubt they extend it

If so, there go all my  my Anthem Cruises. nexxt up Odyssey 8/6/8 starting Feb 26th.  If it is extended in Jan. no way am i flying down to florida for one 6 night cruise.  Already have my airline tickets and hotel for Florida.  --- 

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The CSO is also dependent on the Public Health Emergency declaration also being in effect. Couple of weeks ago the PHE was extended so I would expect the CSO to also be extended unless they lose their appeal and it becomes only a recommendation. Even so I really do not see RCCL changing their protocols any time soon since they have invested so much into the Healthy Sail Panel and their recommendations.

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28 minutes ago, danv3 said:

The chances of the CSO not being extended are probably less than 2%.  The bigger question is what new requirements are the CDC and cruise lines going to impose on the vaccinated between now and then.  

My take is this: No large cruise ship operating anywhere in the world has experienced an outbreak. Have there been isolated infections? Have these been handled without creating an outbreak involving other guests, crew members or local communities. Yes to both questions.

I don't think there is an appetite among the deciders at HHS or the CDC or a scientific basis upon which to place more restrictions, via the CSO, on cruise ship operations. The CDC isn't mandating anything on any state government or business entity. Outside of the mandates, now enjoined, contained in the CSO, that's it. They recommend and states are free to ignore them. 

I've held for a while now that your own experience with further mitigation measures is going to be based on the political make-up of the governments at both the state and local level that you must deal with. 

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14 hours ago, JeffB said:

I've held for a while now that your own experience with further mitigation measures is going to be based on the political make-up of the governments at both the state and local level that you must deal with. 

I'm quoting my self here to make a point. I just finished reading a rare NYTs article that runs completely counter to the current media narrative regarding the delta variant "surge." It's paywalled so, I'll post my takeaways after I relate them to cruising.

This thread started by asking the question "what if." The question further asked what sorts of further mitigation measures, specifically an extension of the CSO, might we expect given increased COVID infections?

Let's be clear, IMO, outside of the over-sized reporting requirements, the strict requirements for contracts between the cruise lines and shore agencies that might be asked to handle passengers or crew infected with COVID and the imposition of fines for non-compliance with the CSO, the health protocols contained therein aren't bad. Moreover, they are working. I don't think anything more in the way of mitigation measures is necessary. Will the CDC add more? Will local governments return to mandatory masks, and mobility restrictions? Here's why PH policy makers should carefully consider the costs of doing any of those things weighed against the potential PH benefits:

My take aways from the this morning's NYT's article:

Policy makers need a strong dose of humility when implementing COVID mitigation strategies. To wit: humans can intervene with prescribed mitigation measures that can theoretically reduce transmission but thinking that only human interventions can end the pandemic is foolishly naïve.

There are no plausible explanations involving human interventions alone for the peaks then precipitous falls of new case numbers. Virologists agree that after steep climbs, the steep drops in new case numbers in India and the UK are NOT a result of imposed mitigation measures. They are mysterious.

Drops like this - the petering out of the spread of a virus - has repeated itself in almost every viral outbreak in the history of the human race. We simply do not know why and our efforts to impose measures to stop this thing pale in comparison to the behavior of the virus we do not fully understand. Noted by @smokeybanditabove.

The article nibbles around the edges of stating masking and social distancing mitigation measures, including lock-downs (Australia and China are in the midst of re-imposing them) don't really do much and might be unnecessary imposition of inconvenience - actually unlawful restrictions on guaranteed liberties in the case of mobility restrictions - on those affected by these mandates.

The one human intervention that does work? Vaccines.

PH policy makers would be well advised to carefully examine the cost of further mitigation measures in the face of the Delta "surge" balancing the social and economic cost of such measures against what are emerging as questionable PH benefits.

Vaccination should be at the forefront of PH policy aimed at stemming the pandemic.

In FL, Governor Desantis is getting hammered for his stand against counties mandating masking for kids in schools. I suspect he is a staunch adherent to the concepts that have been articulated in this rare NYT's piece that actually questions the role of mandated mitigation measures. In the end, I don't think there will be any question that Ron Desantis is one smart dude wrt to the current pandemic.

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15 hours ago, CrznTxn said:

The CSO is also dependent on the Public Health Emergency declaration also being in effect. Couple of weeks ago the PHE was extended so I would expect the CSO to also be extended unless they lose their appeal and it becomes only a recommendation. Even so I really do not see RCCL changing their protocols any time soon since they have invested so much into the Healthy Sail Panel and their recommendations.

Royal will not be changing their protocols, except for what was announced yesterday in everyone  cruising 4+ nights has to have a negative test to board. I think Royal is doing an excellent job in protecting those aboard their ships and they should be applauded for it. 

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My thinking is undoubtedly biased by my distrust of the CDC, so take it with a giant rock of salt.

If the CDC loses the court case with Florida (and I think they will), then they renew the CSO as a guideline and use their mandatory health inspections as a club to bring the cruise lines in compliance.

If they win, then they not only extend the CSO, but add additional requirements. Will the new requirements be so onerous as to shut down cruising once again?  Time will tell.

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13 minutes ago, steverk said:

If the CDC loses the court case with Florida (and I think they will), then they renew the CSO as a guideline and use their mandatory health inspections as a club to bring the cruise lines in compliance.

First, I agree with you that FL will win their law suit. Second, I am absolutely convinced that if the CDC tries an end run, and as you suggest, uses mandatory health inspections as a club to coerce compliance with the CSO, FL"s attonery's will be all over this.

If you are unaware, FL already filed a motion in the Middle Court of GA in opposition to the CDC's "Dear Colleague" letter that in no uncertain terms told the cruise lines that we won't rigorously enforce mask mandates aboard cruise ships (a lawful action they could take under different US Code) if you voluntarily comply with the CSO and to "please let us know if you plan to comply." All the cruise lines said they would.

The basis for the FL motion was that the CDC was coercing compliance with the CSO that had been enjoined by the Merryday court and upheld by the 11 USCOA. Merryday, IMO, correctly deferred a ruling stating that FL was objecting based on the potential for harm, no such harm having yet occurred. He left it open to FL to comeback to him if and when actual harm resulted.

FL is watching what the CDC does closely.

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15 hours ago, LovetoCruise87 said:

As I've said before, we are all excited to cruise next month, and whatever protocols they have in place or add is fine with us. Just let me on the ship for a much needed vacation!

That’s my stand too… whatever protocols are in place when my sailing happens, I’ll abide by it.

The problem is that the cruise lines are trying their very best to adapt to this difficult situation.  Then people don’t want to go with the cruise companies on this. Some don’t like masks, some don’t like vaccines, some won’t social distance, etc.  What are the companies to do? Like it or not, we can’t go back to pre-pandemic style cruising for a while.

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On 7/29/2021 at 8:47 PM, smokeybandit said:

States that started spiking first are already at peaking. Give it a couple weeks and it'll be over

I was listening to talk radio yesterday and Scott Gottlieb was on and he said we are about 3-4 weeks behind the UK with the surge and their cases are coming down. So fingers crossed, this devilish delta burns herself out in a few more weeks. Keep your eye on Florida. Hopefully our cases here start coming down first. 

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On 7/29/2021 at 7:47 PM, smokeybandit said:

States that started spiking first are already at peaking. Give it a couple weeks and it'll be over

Florida appears to be peaking but New York, Texas, and California look like they aren't even near peaking, from what I can see.

Florida:

image.png.459b2ffee7d3fe2b599d395d6935c52c.png

Texas:

image.png.352356158ed10f23700b338b6387f6ef.png

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