Tarheel0907 Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 38 minutes ago, AlmondFarmer said: Interesting data that would tell more of the story is the number of tests conducted and or the total number of cases. I assume vaccinated people are testing less or not at all. This would explain a higher positivity rate even if total cases are unchanged or even decreasing. A higher positivity rate does not necessitate an increase in cases. Cherry picking statistics can tell almost any story. I did not investigate beyond the article. I’m simply stating that as written it isn’t relevant in terms of statistical validity. dont bring that kinda of reasoning around here lol WAAAYTOOO, SteveinSC, CruiseGus and 2 others 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, AlmondFarmer said: I assume vaccinated people are testing less or not at all. The CDC does recommend that vaccinated people NOT get tested after a potential exposure, assuming they stay asymptomatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXcruzer Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 23 hours ago, twangster said: I owe you an apology, you were right. I've traded Odyssey for Mardi Gras. It checked all of my boxes. I can't wait to hear about your experience. As i said, I have cancelled Symphony for an un masked alternative as well Neesa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXcruzer Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 7 hours ago, Danielle OG said: A masked day on a cruise ship is better than an unmasked day at home BUT an unmasked day on a cruise ship beats all others; and it is an option with other lines ChrisK2793, Neesa and CruiseGus 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlmondFarmer Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 55 minutes ago, Tarheel0907 said: dont bring that kinda of reasoning around here lol Being a numbers person it is hard to not critique an article like that. I will refrain from pointing out likely intentional statistical dishonesty again. Another surprising statistic: 50% of the graduates of Harvard are in the bottom half of their graduating class….I though they were all smart. Ogilthorpe, AshleyDillo, SteveinSC and 4 others 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LifesEz Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, AlmondFarmer said: Being a numbers person it is hard to not critique an article like that. I will refrain from pointing out likely intentional statistical dishonesty again. Another surprising statistic: 50% of the graduates of Harvard are in the bottom half of their graduating class….I though they were all smart. I used to teach Business Statistics for a college night class. My intro was always something like, "Tell me what you want the numbers to say, and I will get them for you." They have to be careful not to insert their bias in the work, that is, if the goal is to get a true number, not a desired number. What is the most popular color Floridians wear to basketball games? You want the answer to the Poll to be BLUE? I focus more weight on a Magic hosting the Dallas Mavericks game. Then add Magic/Heat and guess what? I checked 2 locations and came up with BLUE! So many ways to make it look fair, but when you dig into the details, it is what whoever wanted. Then they can sell that data to the media and general public that does not understand. "We checked both Florida NBA Teams, and overwhelmingly Floridians wear BLUE?" Want the answer to the Poll color to be RED? I choose Heat/Magic & Heat/Rockets. "We checked both Florida NBA Teams, and overwhelmingly Floridians wear RED?" I would have the raw data to prove both correct (unless you dig into the details) If it is not what I want, I may have to do another game with the color I want and a non-Red or non-Blue team. Then the data looks more credible. Same with political or CV-19 polls (Did I just say Tune Fish). Tell me what you want, and I can get the number. You have to look at any Poll in the media without the raw data with a skeptical eye. Neesa, SteveinSC, WAAAYTOOO and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruising With JT Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 Just booked Oasis! Mask or no mask lol.. going to experience this amazing ship! cruisellama, Danielle OG, WAAAYTOOO and 1 other 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovetoCruise87 Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 15 hours ago, teddy said: My wife and I were talking about masks and cruising yesterday. We have a week on Freedom in November. We’ve been mask free since may 24th and are both vaccinated. I really am not looking forward to having to wear one again, even for the flight to Florida We won’t cancel if masks are still a requirement in November, but we will rethink our stateroom category. In the past, we have been perfectly content staying in an Inside Cabin. A mask regulation will have us considering an upgrade to a larger room with a large balcony. We always get a balcony! Great to sit outside, in the quietness and away from all people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovetoCruise87 Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 8 hours ago, Cruising With JT said: Just booked Oasis! Mask or no mask lol.. going to experience this amazing ship! Been on Oasis. She is a great ship!! Have a great time. Cruising With JT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovetoCruise87 Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 13 hours ago, twangster said: “100% of the cases reported yesterday were among unvaccinated individuals,” Pino said. “More so, 100% of the deaths that we are reporting to you today, were among unvaccinated individuals. So we can mask up, we can keep the distance, we can try not to talk about this but the reality is that this is an unvaccinated pandemic.” 100% of reported cases from yesterday are among unvaccinated individuals. Why in the world does a mask mandate come back to include vaccinated people, when the vaccinated are not developing CoVid? Can we for once use some common since or has that been thrown out the window?!?!? Neesa, LifesEz, Snotarni and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovetoCruise87 Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 Just FYI Florida and US vaccine rates: Florida: at least one dose 54.8% two doses 47.1% US: at least one dose 56.1% two doses 48.5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruisinghawg Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 13 hours ago, dswallow said: Ah, the irony. Florida. Are you actually pulling for Florida to have a uptick in cases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCFanatik Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 A rise in case counts does not necessarily mean a rise in hospitalizations and deaths now. something to remember when you hear about a rise in case counts. The media often ignores that fact. Zero Covid should not be goal nor is it attainable. ChrisK2793, Neesa, LifesEz and 1 other 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snotarni Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 I feel for the crew (who are 100% Vaccinated) that have to wear masks. ESPECIALLY those in outside venues. Why are lifeguards at Coco Cay wearing masks?! I know, I know…. CDC.. optics…. Etc. I just feel for them. LifesEz, teddy, ChrisK2793 and 3 others 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovetoCruise87 Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said: A rise in case counts does not necessarily mean a rise in hospitalizations and deaths now. something to remember when you hear about a rise in case counts. The media often ignores that fact. Zero Covid should not be goal nor is it attainable. Exactly! In fact I'm pretty sure that hospitalizations are not increasing with increased case counts. Trying to hit a zero CoVid goal is like trying to hit a zero flu goal, it will not happen. Snotarni, Neesa, LifesEz and 2 others 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LifesEz Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 Here is a site I use to check daily. It seems to tell a different story when national hot spots are compared to Florida. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map 7-Day Average July 11th Miami-Dade 23 cases per 100,000 0 Deaths per 100,000 To show how deceptive data can be unless you look deeper. That dark red in Montana is Powder River County. 7-Day average per 100,000 July 11th 161 Cases 17 deaths However, the Population of Powder River County (2019) is 1,607 Don't trust the media's statistics until you do the deep research. You can adjust the data by dividing the population of Miami-Dade by 100,000 then multiplying that number times 23. Of course, whatever that number time zero deaths, is still quite low. I am thinking it is less than .5 per 100,000, but without the knowledge of how the stats are compiled, it is only a guess. cruisellama and WAAAYTOOO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlmondFarmer Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, LifesEz said: To show how deceptive data can be unless you look deeper. That dark red in Montana is Powder River County. 7-Day average per 100,000 July 11th 161 Cases 17 deaths However, the Population of Powder River County (2019) is 1,607 Don't trust the media's statistics until you do the deep research. It would be a media goldmine for Desolation county Wyoming to have one person test positive with COVID. This would be 50,000 per 100,000 as only 2 people live in this imaginary county. SteveinSC, WAAAYTOOO, LifesEz and 4 others 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 Rural counties tend to have higher positivity percentages, too, since people aren't nearly a likely to go all the way into town just to take a test "just in case" Ogilthorpe and LifesEz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlmondFarmer Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Rural counties tend to have higher positivity percentages, too, since people aren't nearly a likely to go all the way into town just to take a test "just in case" Correct, plus old man Doc Winston is only at the General Mercantile once a week to administer tests. In regards to cruising, it has been reported that neither resident of Desolation county has ever seen a cruise ship. nate91, WAAAYTOOO and LifesEz 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeffB Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 TBH, I've stopped reading most pandemic metrics reported - summarized is a better word because those summaries can be terribly misleading - by the press. There are data bases available on line that report dozens of different metrics. The good ones don't try to interpret them. One really has to look at what's available and do your own interpreting. I have some knowledge but not the expertise to roll what's available into meaningful conclusions about any number of things having to do with the pandemic. That PH officials and virologists dance around what the data means and speak in frustratingly vague terms is because these people know how difficult it is to make authoritative statements based on the data that is available. I've posted here previously that reporting rising case numbers, without other background data, is not an indication of a worsening pandemic situation. But that is uniformly the conclusion that the press often implies or the reader/viewer of those reports concludes. As well, politics have been folded into interpretations and this is just another factor that makes most interpretations flawed. The best way to proceed is to reject almost everything that is reported in the press and on social media platforms, find data bases that reliably report raw numbers (there are many), study them and draw your own conclusions. Then, assess your own risk tolerance and proceed accordingly. It's too bad that most governments and businesses take liability into account when making policy and that produces various restrictions - inconveniences - that sometimes we just have to deal with. AlmondFarmer, LifesEz and ChrisK2793 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswallow Posted July 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 3 hours ago, LifesEz said: Here is a site I use to check daily. It seems to tell a different story when national hot spots are compared to Florida. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map 7-Day Average July 11th Miami-Dade 23 cases per 100,000 0 Deaths per 100,000 Unfortunately you're ignoring a very important thing. Florida is not reporting daily statistics anymore. That "0" deaths is wrong. In addition when they made this change they also stopped reporting non-resident deaths from COVID (i.e., people who identify a residence from out of state but who were in Florida when they died), and further they also now only issue a very abbreviated report weekly which doesn't exactly disclose death numbers. Sure, raw data is open to interpretation. But when data is withheld, what do you interpret from that? So instead, data gets aggregated from other sources and updated as it is refined/corrected/supplemented from complete sources. It's a sad state. And I mean that both ways. I tend to review data from http://www.covidactnow.com first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LifesEz Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, dswallow said: Unfortunately you're ignoring a very important thing. Florida is not reporting daily statistics anymore. That "0" deaths is wrong. In addition when they made this change they also stopped reporting non-resident deaths from COVID (i.e., people who identify a residence from out of state but who were in Florida when they died), and further they also now only issue a very abbreviated report weekly which doesn't exactly disclose death numbers. Sure, raw data is open to interpretation. But when data is withheld, what do you interpret from that? So instead, data gets aggregated from other sources and updated as it is refined/corrected/supplemented from complete sources. It's a sad state. And I mean that both ways. I tend to review data from http://www.covidactnow.com first. Thus, verification of the statement->Don't trust the media's statistics until you do the deep research...but without the knowledge of how the stats are compiled, it is only a guess. However, I note the site you reference still had 23 cases per 100,000 At least all sites appear to be ignoring equally. 2,700,000/100/000 = 27x23= 621 case* *Per however the data for Florida is compiled and reported Now the question is, how many were hospitalized, deaths, etc then compare that to how many died of heart disease, cancer, lung disease, cerebrovascular disease, and Alzheimer's disease etc. Then compare those cases against 2019, 2018 norms and projected for 2021. To see if there is overlap, thus the actual numbers for CV-19 may be blurred higher or lower. At least then we could have something to compare and see just how much risk is real. Perhaps that is why the Judge said the CDC had to use public data or provide the data, not just talk generics. WAAAYTOOO and Snotarni 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswallow Posted July 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 45 minutes ago, LifesEz said: Thus, verification of the statement->Don't trust the media's statistics until you do the deep research...but without the knowledge of how the stats are compiled, it is only a guess. However, I note the site you reference still had 23 cases per 100,000 At least all sites appear to be ignoring equally. 2,700,000/100/000 = 27x23= 621 case* *Per however the data for Florida is compiled and reported Now the question is, how many were hospitalized, deaths, etc then compare that to how many died of heart disease, cancer, lung disease, cerebrovascular disease, and Alzheimer's disease etc. Then compare those cases against 2019, 2018 norms and projected for 2021. To see if there is overlap, thus the actual numbers for CV-19 may be blurred higher or lower. At least then we could have something to compare and see just how much risk is real. Perhaps that is why the Judge said the CDC had to use public data or provide the data, not just talk generics. Sure, deaths at least when they're low aren't the most important thing. Even cases being high aren't the most important thing, to the extent we accept that simply becoming infected may not mean much than needing a period to recover. The problems arise with complications from the infection. Long-term complications. Severity of the symptoms, too. And even whether the person reporting a positive test has been vaccinated, because that helps us understand the infections and how they're coming about and spreading better, as well as provides some insight into whether we have ways to better control that which are potentially being purposefully ignored or downplayed to the detriment of people's health (well the latter, IMO, is unquestionably true, but some people apparently want to see something more, whatever that something might be that becomes enough of a nudge for them). So, with Florida we see an increasing number of cases right now. And from Florida we don't have a whole lot of real data from which to interpret that data well. But we do know to watch it more closely. And we do know where it stands in relation to what other states are reporting. And we do know it's not trending to the "good" side of what's happening overall right now. And in many ways we're back at Florida withholding important and useful data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 Good thread here discussing this year's summer rise with last year's. dswallow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted July 13, 2021 Report Share Posted July 13, 2021 We're back to discussing Covid in general terms, with little if any reference to cruising. Shutting down the thread, thanks for playing. Ogilthorpe, teddy, Jax and 7 others 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts