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Two guests test positive on Adventure of Seas


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This is going to get reported for at least the next month or so and then hopefully will just not be interesting anymore. 
 

Bottom line: there are going to be cases. We’ve seen the protocols work exactly as planned for 2 cruises now. 
 

All the people freaking out (mostly on Facebook) really should just stay home. Those that are comfortable and believe in the protocols climb aboard. 

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21 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

@JillThis is exactly how I feel. This let's me know the protocols in place are working. I am also confused as to why people seem to believe there will be no cases on board. There have been colds/flu on board, cases of stomach bugs, etc. Life happens.

Covid is never going away. You can continue to live in fear or grab life by the horns and go for it. I’m approaching 5 years cancer free from stage 4b endometrial cancer. I had a 15% chance of making it. I’m here and ready to cross off my bucket list cruises. I’m a firm believer that when it’s your time, it’s your time. I’ve stared down death. It wasn’t my time. Too bad more people don’t see life that way. No regrets baby! Hurry up October! Here I come Symphony! 

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Sorry if the data does not fit you paradigm, but this really tells me why all cruises should require vaccination.

Because even with the vaccination we will have breakthrough cases, but not at this level of risk.

I sincerely hope it is not serious for these 2 young men

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/06/24/royal-caribbeans-new-health-protocols-catch-two-positive-covid-19-cases-adventure-of-the

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Sorry if the data does not fit your paradigm, but this really tells me why all cruises should require vaccination.

Because even with the vaccination we will have breakthrough cases, but not at this level of risk.

I sincerely hope it is not serious for these 2 young men

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/06/24/royal-caribbeans-new-health-protocols-catch-two-positive-covid-19-cases-adventure-of-the

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Protocols worked.  Cruising is safe.  Safer than being on land at least.

Had these two been out and about with their friends at home on land there would have been no testing and no detection.  Thanks to the cruise it was caught and now the families know and they can respond appropriately. 

Time to move on.  

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How is this any different than the 2 COVID cases on the Celebrity Millennium?  Or, in your opinion, is that different because they were fully vaccinated?  Quite frankly, teenage boys are no more at risk from COVID than vaccinated adults.  There’s always going to be breakthrough cases. 

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1 hour ago, CruiseGus said:

Sorry if the data does not fit your paradigm, but this really tells me why all cruises should require vaccination.

Because even with the vaccination we will have breakthrough cases, but not at this level of risk.

I sincerely hope it is not serious for these 2 young men

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/06/24/royal-caribbeans-new-health-protocols-catch-two-positive-covid-19-cases-adventure-of-the

Sorry but why? ?‍♂️ There was no mass outbreak onboard, it didn’t even affect anyone else’s cruise. If anything, it just proves continental trend of greatly reduced spread and really proves that new protocols work great.

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2 hours ago, CruiseGus said:

Sorry if the data does not fit you paradigm, but this really tells me why all cruises should require vaccination.

Because even with the vaccination we will have breakthrough cases, but not at this level of risk.

I sincerely hope it is not serious for these 2 young men

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/06/24/royal-caribbeans-new-health-protocols-catch-two-positive-covid-19-cases-adventure-of-the

Good luck with royal running a business with 100% vaccination requirement. 

and the data tells me these two teenagers will be just fine. 

better get used to the idea. Covid is endemic and there will be cases on most sailings moving forward either known or unknown. 

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4 hours ago, WAAAYTOOO said:

@Matthas been pretty quiet on this leg.  He must be having a lot of fun !  Good for him.

Until they got the emergency bells tonight and they all had to report to their muster stations! Luckily it was a false alarm, but it sounded scary, from what people described! (Happened while they were in the pub (singing "Alice", of course).

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7 hours ago, SpeedNoodles said:

Until they got the emergency bells tonight and they all had to report to their muster stations! Luckily it was a false alarm, but it sounded scary, from what people described! (Happened while they were in the pub (singing "Alice", of course).

Yikes !  Nothing like a boat drill to wake everyone up !  Glad it was a false alarm.

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11 hours ago, Ampurp85 said:

@JillThis is exactly how I feel. This let's me know the protocols in place are working. I am also confused as to why people seem to believe there will be no cases on board. There have been colds/flu on board, cases of stomach bugs, etc. Life happens.

There will always be all of the above on board. There is no way to isolate from everything

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This time there were two who tested positive and the cruise went well.  At what point does Royal make changes to the cruise itinerary and maybe even shorten a sailing?

I'm not that much concerned with getting COVID because I have been vaccinated.  I'm more worried about the disruptions to the cruise because of COVID related situations.

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2 hours ago, PG Cruiser said:

This time there were two who tested positive and the cruise went well.  At what point does Royal make changes to the cruise itinerary and maybe even shorten a sailing?

I'm not that much concerned with getting COVID because I have been vaccinated.  I'm more worried about the disruptions to the cruise because of COVID related situations.

This would be my concern also.  This time it was only 2 under 16 on a reduced capacity cruise with every adult vaxxed.  

So what may (stressing may) possibly occur when the pax count increases, Florida sailings have unvaxxed adults in addition to the unvaxxed children and we have a  surge in the delta cases among the unvaccinated (and possibly more breakthrough cases)?  Just a question, not a prediction.

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I think this success begs the question of whether the CDC's actions (lawful or not) involving the NSO and CSO didn't contribute to this recent success? IOW, would the cruise lines been successful in mitigating risks of a COVID outbreak on their own without the shuttering of the entire industry and the subsequent CSO?

The answer to that requires delving into the timing of the CSO's actions versus those of the Healthy Sail Panel. On March 14, 2020, the CDC Director issued a No Sail Order for cruise ships. It was subsequently renewed and updated on April 15, 2020 and again on July 21, 2020. The order remained in effect until September 30, 2020. That is the date at which the CSO emerged with all it's complexities and, according to cruise executives "unworkable and burdensome regulations." Accompanying the CSO was a painfully slow CDC reaction to update it and provide the cruise industry a path forward to resume operations. The endgame was reached just recently in the US, earlier although highly restricted in Europe and Asia, cruise ship sailings have resumed......seemingly under the strict guidance of the CSO which the CDC will most certainty claim.

The Healthy Sail Panel's recommendations for the safe resumption of cruising was released on September 21st, 2020. Could have cruise ship operations restarted soon after that date and produced the same results we are seeing on most EU and Asian sailings and now including Millennium and AoS sailings from North American ports? Will we see the same level of success starting tomorrow with Celebrity Edge sailing from PEV and continuing as cruises from US ports become more frequent in July?

First, those of you reading my posts know that I've been an opponent of mass shuttering as a means of controlling the SARS2 pandemic and a re-opening advocate for most of the US since June, 2020. It was at this point that knowledge of who is at highest risk of disease, what mitigation measures worked (on a cost-benefit-risk evaluation basis) and COVID treatments improved dramatically reducing disease burden on health care systems nationwide.You also know I am largely opposed to government interference in our lives when private entities are capable of "doing the right thing" without government regulators breathing down their backs. Clearly, I'm biased

Having said that, I mentioned in another post that I thought the Healthy Sail Panels' recommendations stood in start contrast wrt to simplicity and potential for effectiveness to the CSO - an immensely complicated document that was exceedingly difficult to comply with as a means of restarting cruise ship operations. What I do not know is how much collaboration with CDC principals occurred during it's creation. My sense is little if any as at this time the CDC and cruise line executive seemed to be locked in a battle of wills. Both side trying to prove they were right. 

Regardless the Healthy Sail Panel recommendations emerged. Some of you have read them in detail. Some have also compared the CSO's legally enforceable regulations,failure to comply with them precipitating large fines, and Healthy Sail Panel's guidelines. Philosophically the HSP's guidelines obviously relied on the cruise line's goodwill to implement the guidelines instead of government regulator's legal enforceability. I do believe there are certain aspects of the CSO that are worthwhile, e.g., the pressure probably placed on cruise lines to develop evacuation plans for multiple scenarios based on varying degrees of case number severity. The Healthy Sail Panel's recommendation wrt this can be found on page 47 of the Plan. They are not as detailed as what is found in the CSO. These are very detailed and probably hard to execute (written contracts, for example).

My view is that not knowing the level of discussions that might have gone on between members of the Healthy Sail Panel and CDC experts it's hard to say if the cruise lines would have acted in good faith absent the CSO. But everything points to the fact that the cruise lines were unfairly identified as being irresponsible in the areas of safety and health in a COVID environment. This assessment occurred in the absence of a clear understanding by PH officials of how effectively the cruise lines had acted over time to containing infectious diseases.

To me, although we don't know some key pieces of information and can't look into the future and predict the kinds of good outcomes EU/Asian cruises and now Millennium and AoS cruise ship obtained/continue to obtain, I think it will be the norm.  I think that if the success continues, and I think most of it will believe it will, that record of success makes a strong case that the NSO may have been appropriate at the time but lacked necessary oversight and review and that the CSO was an unnecessary example of government regulatory over reach. Judge Merryday seems to agree.

Your thoughts? 

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I do think that US cruises will be successful to the point that the public finds the number of cases that will undoubtedly occur to be of a sufficiently low level as to allow the continuation and expansion of cruising.  That said I do not think the industry would have been nearly as successful had they started back in September 2020.  The whole US surge that occurred late fall early winter could have been disastrous to the industry.

IMO the overwhelming thing that has everything pointing in the right direction is not the policies and protocols, although they are important, but the vaccine.  Vaccinations work and are driving levels of cases down dramatically in places that have embraced it.  IMO cruising could have, and should have, been possible earlier than it has started but possibly only by a few months.  Just my humble opinion.

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42 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan said:

So what may (stressing may) possibly occur when the pax count increases, Florida sailings have unvaxxed adults in addition to the unvaxxed children and we have a  surge in the delta cases among the unvaccinated (and possibly more breakthrough cases)?  Just a question, not a prediction.

This is an interesting take. Lets look at some data points. On 01/08/21, FL's 7d average of new daily cases were 17568, 04/20/21 = 6120, 06/23/21 = 1543. Obviously a huge decrease in transmissability attendant to vaccines as you point out.

WRT the Delta variant seroprevalence, that variant comprised 2.9% of all infections in 05/22/21 - in round figures about 14000 new cases or 435 infections from the Delta variant. The variant comprised 9.5% of new infections on 6/23/21 - in round figures about 1500 new cases or 142 infections from the Delta variant.

While its true the Delta variant is present in FL is it's impact on new cases or more appropriately disease burden something to worry about? I don't think it is. I continue to object to messaging from PH officials, including and most prominently the CDC, that wants to push the importance of getting vaccinated using misleading information. Is the message a good one? Yes it is. But don't manufacture fear of the Delta variant to do that.  That fear has much wider negative consequences for returning to some level of normalcy than it does positive things for encouraging people to get vaccinated.

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56 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan said:

This would be my concern also.  This time it was only 2 under 16 on a reduced capacity cruise with every adult vaxxed.  

So what may (stressing may) possibly occur when the pax count increases, Florida sailings have unvaxxed adults in addition to the unvaxxed children and we have a  surge in the delta cases among the unvaccinated (and possibly more breakthrough cases)?  Just a question, not a prediction.

I think cruising will continue to go back to normal. Overall cases in the US continue to decline, no new case surge based on Delta at this point. 

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@JeffB

You are using Florida cases as your guide on the Delta but i know here in Illinois the number of Delta cases was doubling every 10 days.  Also there are increasing rates of Delta in certain parts of Missouri, and other parts of the country, where the vaccination rate is low.  As cruisers come from all over this is at least a consideration.   I'm not saying it will have a negative impact, just that it has potential.

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27 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan said:

@JeffB

You are using Florida cases as your guide on the Delta but i know here in Illinois the number of Delta cases was doubling every 10 days.  Also there are increasing rates of Delta in certain parts of Missouri, and other parts of the country, where the vaccination rate is low.  As cruisers come from all over this is at least a consideration.   I'm not saying it will have a negative impact, just that it has potential.

All states, all variants…  data shows cruising will go back to normal.

 

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58 minutes ago, WhiteSoxFan said:

You are using Florida cases as your guide on the Delta but i know here in Illinois the number of Delta cases was doubling every 10 days.

They're doubling periodically in FL as well ....... like from like 2 to 4 or maybe 10 to 100. When an increase in state wide new case numbers from the minuscule amount of 1500 to 1650 for example (the FL example) are accompanied by increased hospital admissions and mortality, it's time for increased concern.  OTH, like now, where these measures of disease burden continue to decline all over the US, it's not worth a dire consequences narrative applied anywhere. It is accurate to say regional outbreaks, accelerated by the Delta variant, have occurred but so far, these have been controlled in terms of disease burden. Vaccinations play a large role in that realty. Instead we get these generalized observations from Dr. Walenski about the Delta variant ruining what we've accomplished, gobbled up by the press and regurgitated as something to be afraid of. 

My point is that when you take this kind of data and frame it as doubling as in exponentially (it's an R [0] of 2.0 and a number we'd like to be 0) out of context, it can be misleading. I've said the CDC has a rep for using questionable data supporting their otherwise decent messaging, e.g., get vaccinated it will protect against variants. It's not a good thing the CDC does this on the regular. It's not a good thing that the CDC does too much pearl clutching in an effort to disseminate good PH guidance and in that sense reestablish some credibility that they have squandered 

When the Delta variant starts creating increased ED visits, those visits resulting in increased admissions for serious illness (a measurable increase in disease burden), that's when the CDC and ourselves should start worrying about the Delta Variant in the US. At that point the CDC might consider recommending adjusting mitigation measures. Americans might consider accepting them and they might do that if the CDC was reliable and their recommendations, acted upon, hadn't created the massive economic and social damage they have. The CDC is not reliable and there is no doubting the guidance they provided has produced unimaginable economic and social consequences. 

Sorry if I keep hammering this point home but PH officals and governments must think about the economic and social costs of doing things to counter SARS2/COVID......or even talk about doing that. That's what's been missing - costs/benefits/risk analysis - at the level where guidance and messaging comes from and at the more local levels where shutting down places like schools or where people gather socially are implemented.

I do not want to assign the Delta variant a degree of worry that might result in a return to the draconian mitigation measures of March 2020. Even talking about it has the potential of doing that in an over-reacting sort of way. I would hope that PH officials and governments making these policy decisions will have learned from the impact of their actions starting in March 2020 and be properly restrained in re-implementing them.  The same applies to the restart of cruising from US ports. Restraint should be the by-word of PH officials and local governments reacting to news of new cases found on cruise ships.

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11 minutes ago, JeffB said:

They're doubling periodically in FL as well ....... like from like 2 to 4 or maybe 10 to 100. When an increase in state wide new case numbers from the minuscule amount of 1500 to 1650 for example (the FL example) are accompanied by increased hospital admissions and mortality, it's time for increased concern.  OTH, like now, where these measures of disease burden continue to decline all over the US, it's not worth a dire consequences narrative applied anywhere. It is accurate to say regional outbreaks, accelerated by the Delta variant, have occurred but so far, these have been controlled in terms of disease burden. Vaccinations play a large role in that realty. Instead we get these generalized observations from Dr. Walenski about the Delta variant ruining what we've accomplished, gobbled up by the press and regurgitated as something to be afraid of. 

My point is that when you take this kind of data and frame it as doubling as in exponentially (it's an R [0] of 2.0 and a number we'd like to be 0) out of context, it can be misleading. I've said the CDC has a rep for using questionable data supporting their otherwise decent messaging, e.g., get vaccinated it will protect against variants. It's not a good thing the CDC does this on the regular. It's not a good thing that the CDC does too much pearl clutching in an effort to disseminate good PH guidance and in that sense reestablish some credibility that they have squandered 

When the Delta variant starts creating increased ED visits, those visits resulting in increased admissions for serious illness (a measurable increase in disease burden), that's when the CDC and ourselves should start worrying about the Delta Variant in the US. At that point the CDC might consider recommending adjusting mitigation measures. Americans might consider accepting them and they might do that if the CDC was reliable and their recommendations, acted upon, hadn't created the massive economic and social damage they have. The CDC is not reliable and there is no doubting the guidance they provided has produced unimaginable economic and social consequences. 

Sorry if I keep hammering this point home but PH officals and governments must think about the economic and social costs of doing things to counter SARS2/COVID......or even talk about doing that. That's what's been missing - costs/benefits/risk analysis - at the level where guidance and messaging comes from and at the more local levels where shutting down places like schools or where people gather socially are implemented.

I do not want to assign the Delta variant a degree of worry that might result in a return to the draconian mitigation measures of March 2020. Even talking about it has the potential of doing that in an over-reacting sort of way. I would hope that PH officials and governments making these policy decisions will have learned from the impact of their actions starting in March 2020 and be properly restrained in re-implementing them.  The same applies to the restart of cruising from US ports. Restraint should be the by-word of PH officials and local governments reacting to news of new cases found on cruise ships.

You may want to check your news source. FL numbers have flattened. Can offer you 30 day view too if you would like. There is no doubling of anything in bigger picture. Cruising will continue to resume and be ok. 
 

 

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So it was only a matter of time before this happened and the handling of this situation is miles different than in 2020. I hope the two boys recover quickly and that they and their families are healthy.

Now I do have a cruise-related question here…do we know if this family will incur any additional costs? Or does Royal pick up the cost of treatment and travel back home? If they do, is this procedure Royal-specific? Or is it laid out in that CDC document?

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17 minutes ago, RockerDom31 said:

So it was only a matter of time before this happened and the handling of this situation is miles different than in 2020. I hope the two boys recover quickly and that they and their families are healthy.

Now I do have a cruise-related question here…do we know if this family will incur any additional costs? Or does Royal pick up the cost of treatment and travel back home? If they do, is this procedure Royal-specific? Or is it laid out in that CDC document?

At one point it was fully covered by Royal, but not sure if that’s still the case.

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8 minutes ago, Heymarco said:

You may want to check your news source.

Good catch @RockerDom31 There's more here that's important:

See that tiny almost imperceptible rise that covers something like 3d all the way to the right of the chart? That's what's generating the news stories of increased case numbers. If I recall when I looked at this earlier today for FL, 7d case number moving average HAS INCREASED!!!!!  ...........from  something like 1350 to 1550 (I got tired of waiting for the data to load at the CDC web site to get the exact numbers again but my source is below). I made the point that while doubling - as in an exponential way and that's what that usually means - may be occurring, it is from like 2-4 or 10-100. Nothing significant...... you'd never know that from press reports. Any time I see this BS, I call it out.

FL has stopped openly reporting at the FL PH Web site some of its previously reported granular data that allowed drilling down to what reasonable people want to know. What are the actual numbers. No big deal and when those numbers are constantly and wrongly used as cannon fodder to fire away at Governor Desantis, I'm fine with it not being reported anymore. Of course, we get cries of foul from the Miami Herald directed at the Desantis government for not being transparent. Typical.

The FL (and most US states) numbers are still being reported to the CDC and the presentation of that data has markedly improved causing several private databases I used to follow to shut-down as they are no longer useful to researchers ..... as long as the CDC's data collected from state PH officials is good. I've been looking at it to provide balance to what's in the FL and national press about rising case numbers, vaccination rates and the Delta variant for about 2w. It's good stuff. 

There is a bunch of really good data at links at the CDC page the link below provides. It takes some patience to go through it but in the end its rewarding on a number of levels:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions 

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2 hours ago, RockerDom31 said:

Now I do have a cruise-related question here…do we know if this family will incur any additional costs? Or does Royal pick up the cost of treatment and travel back home? If they do, is this procedure Royal-specific? Or is it laid out in that CDC document?

@Heymarco "At one point it was fully covered by Royal, but not sure if that’s still the case."

I don't know if this is just coincidental but I did a google search using that question (abbreviated). Search results linked me to a number of RCL web site that would pop up and be immediately replaced with a notice "it looks like the web page your searching for has moved on." 

I expected I'd be able to find the exact info you sought and that, yes, they pay for your quarantine hotel if it is required by local COVID regs and transportation back to your home. I was surprised as the verbiage at the current RCL web site which is much more non-committal on that question than I've seen it only just recently. I've also noticed that the way Health info is displayed and articulated at both the RCL and Celebrity web sites is looking more and more alike. I've been expecting that.  

So, as usual, you have to make contact with RCL either directly or through your TA and get an answer, preferably in writing via an email. The web page actually encourages you to "contact us" if the FAQs page doesn't answer your questions. I'd like to see it articulated on the web site but I have a feeling a decision has been made that it is too difficult to deal with all the varying port and country COVID regs.

I have a Celebrity Apex cruise from Athens coming up on July 9th. So far, I've been provided all the information I've needed or wanted about arrival in Greece, at the terminal and boarding. I have the Celebrity App. It is very good and contains everything I might receive at my "manage reservation" link associated with my cruise booking number. I can do everything I need to do pre-cruse, everything I need to do at terminal check-in and, although it's not there yet, everything I might want to know about what's going on during each day of the cruise on the daily planner. 

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Looks like as a result of this any groups with unvaccinated guests can only do sponsored excursions, they're not allowed off ship into ports on their own.  Vaccinated parties are still able to explore freely.  Just notified everyone that it starts effective tomorrow's sailing.

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