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FIRST 4 SAILINGS OF ODYSSEY CANCELED


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only good that you can say is that the protocols are working, as well as the vaccine of the 8 positives, 6 are asymptomatic and 2 have only minor symptoms.

I know it may not be popular here, but to me it just reinforces my thought that vaccines should be required by all eligible on a cruise ship.  I know that there is much less chance of the vaccinated spreading it also, but look at the cases so far even when everyone is vaccinated.

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@CruiseGus I agree, I think people have the wrong assumption when it comes to vaccines. People over at the blogs are saying their are more people testing positive with the vaccine, so RCG shouldn't require them. But really, all this does is prove that the healthy sailing protocols are right and working.

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48 minutes ago, CruiseGus said:

only good that you can say is that the protocols are working, as well as the vaccine of the 8 positives, 6 are asymptomatic and 2 have only minor symptoms.

I know it may not be popular here, but to me it just reinforces my thought that vaccines should be required by all eligible on a cruise ship.  I know that there is much less chance of the vaccinated spreading it also, but look at the cases so far even when everyone is vaccinated.

I could get onboard if you cut it at 18 instead of 12.

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10 hours ago, PG Cruiser said:

With all these cancellations and schedule changes, do you think the Royal reservation system can handle it?    I'm afraid there will be missing reservations, double bookings, room assignment issues, etc.  

No, it took over a week to get my rescheduled cruise that was to be on IofS out of MIA, (that they moved to Galveston), to transferred to Odyssey out of FLL

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Some details ....... already mentioned, 8 positives, 6 asymptomatic, 2 with mild symptoms. Noteworthy that crew were vaccinated on 4 June with 2nd shot on the 18th so vaccine had not reached full effectiveness. There's no fault here on RCL's part for appearing to rush into this, IMO. Evidence suggests that 1 dose of any of the approved vaccines provides some protection. These 8 were just unlucky and among those that didn't mount a robust immune response after one dose. No big deal. 

As we know, the CDC does not recommend screening of vaccinated people. However, this is a special case ...... congregate setting designation applies. I'm glad crew are being screened even after vaccination. What this approach demonstrates is how on top of the science RCL's medical advisors are. The 14d quarantine is also above and beyond. CDC recommends 10d for asymptomatics, 10d after resolution of symptoms for symptomatics. There are advocates in Europe for a 7d quarantine.

While in most settings, infection among the vaccinated is rare, potentially a higher probability with just one dose (to my knowledge RCL is not using the J&J vaccines) but still, this is a above and beyond for health and safety. You have to love that for us, hate it for positive crew who it is reported are confined to cabins. This absolutely sucks and I believe the entire Odyssey crew (probably non-essential types) are also confined. Cancelling Odyssey sailings also sucks but this demonstrates how the cruise industry and RCL in particular does not want any damaging PR. This has not become a major story. It's back page news. Fortunately the press is occupied with the Biden/Putin Summit. If that wasn't the case cruising would be getting pilloried by the uninformed.

I too favor a fully vaccinated passenger manifest. RCG has chosen a hybrid approach for sailings from FL ports while most others have chosen to require full vaccination to board - the Desantis ban being ignored. One has to be careful, though, of saying this is an unsafe approach. It is low risk and the recent Odyssey's circumstance doesn't apply to that protocol. What does apply is specific locale (best by county) viral prevalence. The metric to assess that is % positive. For those traveling to sail from PEV here's Broward Co's numbers:

County   2021 population People vaccinated Percent 12+ vaccinated  Cases        Case positivity  People vaccinated Cases   New case positivity  Cases per 100,000 population

Broward 1,965,657            1,042,256               62%                                   243,765    16.0%                 21,720                      1,243    2.7%                            63.2

This data is through 6/14/21 - 2w after the Memorial day weekend where experts were concerned about a surge in new cases - didn't happen. The 62% vaccination rate is the primary reason. RCG has chosen a path to restart in FL that does not confront Desantis. The strikingly low viral prevalence in and around PEV (Miami, Tampa Orlando and Jacksonville are also all under 5%) makes RCL's choice reasonable. If Carnival and NCL ignore the Desantis Ban, that, IMO, opens a can of worms for both companies. To avoid penalties, they'll have to go to court. They will most certainly prevail, and they may be leveraging the TX case to force Desantis to back down, but I can see RCL's approach being a reasonable option to proceed. 

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Still some questions/thoughts linger:

1. Why did Royal never announce a CDC test sailing for Odyssey as they did for other ships? Some will say they saw the test sailing in the App and Bayley said there was a test sailing planned for June. But again, there has to be some reason that they never formally announced the test sailing dates for Odyssey but moving forward with a July 3rd sailing? AND only now when they announce the delay, we hear about more Covid cases on the Odyssey. 

2. It is my understanding that the Adventure sailed with less than a 95% rate of passengers with about 1000 passengers aboard. Is it realistic to expect that ships sailing in the Caribbean in the summer can even reach 95% vaccinated passenger rate? Perhaps Royal is realizing that they cannot meet that CDC standard? If they have trouble meeting that standard on the Adventure then how can they expect that on other sailings. Maybe Desantis is right when he is constantly saying that the CDC guidelines for % of passenger vaccination is not realistic at this point and time. And I will not debate this but more and more news is coming out about heart inflammation among the 12-16 year olds who have been vaccinated and this may give some parents pause to vaccinate their children. This cannot be helpful to the cruiselines either that are trying to meet the 95% vaccinated threshold.

I know there are those that desire a fully vaccinated cruise but are the cruise lines that cater more to families willing to forego their business in summer season in the Caribbean? MAYBE, its not about Desantis' vaccination passport law but more about cruise lines now realizing that they cannot meet the 95% vaccination rule by the CDC without limiting their business this summer. I know people want to make Desantis the villain and he may well be but the cruise lines are also making their decisions on data they see from those who have booked for the summer sailings

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Since Odyssey was late to the party they were starting from square 1 with the CSO, starting with Phase 1. They were weeks from being able to request a test cruise once they arrived stateside.

 

17 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

And I will not debate this but more and more news is coming out about heart inflammation among the 12-16 year olds who have been vaccinated and this may give some parents pause to vaccinate their children.

Keep an eye on the CDC meeting on Friday. They may well halt (or at least caution against) child vaccinations in light of the heart issues. UK and Germany already did the same.

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Some data ...... 130M mRNA vaccines have been administered in the US. 283 cases of myocarditis (inflammation of cardiac tissues) and pericarditis (an inflammation of the pericardium - the sack that enfolds the heart) have been reported. The concentration of this adverse event is in the under 30 age cohort. The normal rate of occurrence of this condition for all age groups, often associated with viral illnesses, is 102. This means that excess cases of this inflammatory condition are in the 200+ range. Excess case reports of myocarditis beyond the expected number of these case reports, is the driving factor for the FDA. It is also a routine process when any new drug is introduced in the US. Side effects are carefully studied over the first 1-2y.

It has been reported that more than 80% of the cases reported to date have recovered - no long term damage to heart tissue is expected from this condition. It remains uncertain if there is causality. You'll recall the AZ vaccine went through the same process with blood clots.  After more rigorous review, causality was still not clear and benefit of vaccination was greater than the risk. Right now that is the CDC's position on mRNA vaccines for young adults, in particular under 18s. 

I remain supportive of individual choice to forego vaccination. I also support a businesses or government agency's  right to require them to enter or receive services from said business or agency in an effort to create a safe environment for employees and customers. As long as such a policy does not run afoul of EEOC regulations that prevent discriminatory policies, it has been lawful for a long time and recent legal precedent has reaffirmed that it is.

I personally don't see Desantis as a bad guy holding up cruising. He is pursuing a reasonable objective - there will not be two classes of FL residents: the haves and the have nots. Obviously, that policy objective potentially conflicts with federal law. It hasn't been settled in court and may not have to be but I respect the Governor's stand though I don't agree with it. IMO, Governments should be doing everything they can to get as many people as possible vaccinated.

The West is on the verge of getting SARS2 under control. That it has approached a level of control so quickly was unexpected. That the virus has a decreasing pool of hosts it can infect is good news. That there is still a pool of hosts where the virus can percolate and become more survivable isn't good news. Considering the availability of safe vaccines to reduce the population of that group, with minimal risk of adverse outcomes, advocacy of vaccination for everyone who is eligible makes sense.  

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@JeffB based on the statement from Royal i am lead to believe that the crew did get the J&J one shot vaccine.  One shot and considered fully vaccinated 14 days later.  The shortest time frame from any approved in the US 2 shot vacine is 21 days between shots and 14 days later to be considered fully vaccinated.

"Here is the full statement from a Royal Caribbean spokesperson:

Out of an abundance of caution, we are postponing Odyssey of the Seas’ first sailings from July 3 until July 31, 2021. The simulation cruise, originally scheduled for late June, will also be rescheduled.  

During routine testing, eight crew members received a positive test result for COVID-19. All 1,400 crew on board Odyssey were vaccinated on June 4 and will be considered fully vaccinated on June 18. These positive cases were identified after the vaccination was given but before they were fully effective. "

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@CruiseGus good catch. Your math seems to support that RCL has obtained and is using the J&J vaccines. One might ask, is the J&J vaccine ( a carrier or traditional vaccine) less effective than the two mRNA vaccines, Pfiser's and Moderna's? First I want to be clear there is a difference between efficacy (a term used to evaluate how well a vaccine provides protection from it's intended target - SARS2/COVID - in clinical trials and effectiveness or how well a vaccine protects against both the acquisition of infection  and its transmission to others in the real world. These two terms cannot be used interchangeably and they frequently are.

In clinical trials the mRNA vaccines blow away the traditional or carrier vaccines, like the J&J product in terms of efficacy (95% and 75% respectively). The bottom line is that in terms of effectiveness in the real world in preventing unwarted outcomes from a SARS2 infection they are all effective, none more effective than the other based on rather short term data. Accuracy of that assessment grows over years.

Right now, it's impossible to correctly conclude any of the currently approved vaccines are less effective than another. Two points:

Influenza vaccines are, on average and over decades of measurement somewhere between 35% and 50% effective. At this level, they keep flu from becoming a pandemic trouble maker. Even flu epidemics are rare. Controlled outbreaks with minimal disease burden are common. The approved SARS2 vaccines are miles ahead of flu vaccines and over the long term we should expect them to perform better than flu vaccines in eliminating pandemics and epidemics but not local outbreaks. Hopefully those outbreaks won't stress medical care systems like SARS2 did initially.

The J&J vaccine has significant advantages over the mRNA vaccines in terms of handling and administration. We know what these are so no need to repeat them. I have no problem with cruise lines using the easier to handle and administer J&J product. If people are thinking that RCL should have used the mRNA vaccines to get better protection for its crews, that's the wrong way to look at it. As many shots into arms as quickly and as easily as possible should be any agency's guiding principle in vaccine administration. So far, taking that approach has not diminished the overall effectiveness of global vaccination programs in protecting against hospitalizations and deaths as well as reducing transmission rates. This is true regardless of which WHO approved vaccine is being administered. 

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17 minutes ago, JeffB said:

The J&J vaccine has significant advantages over the mRNA vaccines in terms of handling and administration. We know what these are so no need to repeat them. I have no problem with cruise lines using the easier to handle and administer J&J product. If people are thinking that RCL should have used the mRNA vaccines to get better protection for its crews, that's the wrong way to look at it. As many shots into arms as quickly and as easily as possible should be any agency's guiding principle in vaccine administration. So far, taking that approach has not diminished the overall effectiveness of global vaccination programs in protecting against hospitalizations and deaths as well as reducing transmission rates. This is true regardless of which WHO approved vaccine is being administered. 

I agree with your statement 100%.  The best vaccine is the one YOU actually get.

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As long as the CDC required testing of vaccinated crew, you are going to see breakthrough cases. I think the million dollar question to be answered is do these vaccinated people with breakthrough cases have enough viral load to be transmissible? 

As @JeffB has pointed out many times, Covid is on its way to being endemic. The CDC and safe sail guidelines will have to change accordingly as time passes. 

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20 hours ago, CruiseGus said:

only good that you can say is that the protocols are working, as well as the vaccine of the 8 positives, 6 are asymptomatic and 2 have only minor symptoms.

I know it may not be popular here, but to me it just reinforces my thought that vaccines should be required by all eligible on a cruise ship.  I know that there is much less chance of the vaccinated spreading it also, but look at the cases so far even when everyone is vaccinated.

Its a big ship to scrub down.... sigh

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2 hours ago, UNCFanatik said:

As long as the CDC required testing of vaccinated crew,

@UNCFanatikI looked and can't find a unambiguous statement in the applicable crew section of the CSO that  requires a ship to retest a vaccinated crew member after they have gone through the required new crew embarkation protocols that include receiving a vaccination. It may be there and you may know where it is. Please share.

It's nearly impossible for most of us diving into the CSO as it is displayed at the CDC web site and make sense of it. I think if you'd been following the evolution of the CSO and it's updates like I would expect all levels of medical staff - corporate and operations -  to be doing, its probably more understandable.  

I do know that as a routine screening measure, the CDC does not recommend testing vaccinated people. I realize there's a difference between congregate setting and those that aren't that as the CDC defines them. Odyssey was apparently tesing vaccinated crew members and it may have had something to do with the complicated color coding system that's been around for a while. No telling. If for some obscure reason in the CSO it's required, fine. If not ......????

In my post above I applauded RCL's step above and beyond to test vaccinated crew but on further review, if it's not required, doing it sets up an unending circle jerk of testing, quarantine, testing as @LizzyBee23 points out. That's not helpful at all.

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26 minutes ago, JeffB said:

@UNCFanatikI looked and can't find a unambiguous statement in the applicable crew section of the CSO that  requires a ship to retest a vaccinated crew member after they have gone through the required new crew embarkation protocols that include receiving a vaccination. It may be there and you may know where it is. Please share.

It's nearly impossible for most of us diving into the CSO as it is displayed at the CDC web site and make sense of it. I think if you'd been following the evolution of the CSO and it's updates like I would expect all levels of medical staff - corporate and operations -  to be doing, its probably more understandable.  

I do know that as a routine screening measure, the CDC does not recommend testing vaccinated people. I realize there's a difference between congregate setting and those that aren't that as the CDC defines them. Odyssey was apparently tesing vaccinated crew members and it may have had something to do with the complicated color coding system that's been around for a while. No telling. If for some obscure reason in the CSO it's required, fine. If not ......????

In my post above I applauded RCL's step above and beyond to test vaccinated crew but on further review, if it's not required, doing it sets up an unending circle jerk of testing, quarantine, testing as @LizzyBee23 points out. That's not helpful at all.

This is from Matt’s blog post regarding cancelled Odyssey sailings. Maybe I read this wrong but to me it made it seem testing was a CDC and CSO requirement.

*edited to add… surely some of crew were vaccinated prior to getting to US? If not.. then I understand this 
 

“According to the cruise line, all the crew members on Odyssey of the Seas were tested on June 4 when the ship arrived in Port Canaveral, as part of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Conditional Sailing Order.

The crew were tested again on June 10, and eight crew members tested positive.”

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While consolidators don't have all the available cabins and RCL holds some back, two web sites I frequent, just checking out of curiosity wrt your question, both of them show 3 of 4  Odyssey sailings in August show sold out. The only one on offer is the August 28th sailing out of PEV.

I think its a safe bet that if RCL hasn't already sold all the cabin space they want to sell for August sailings on Odyssey, they're close.

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