Slow restart

[Vancity Cruiser]

Matts blog on NCL's restart plan shows a much more phased in approach than I was expecting with all the momentum in the industry the last few weeks. I wonder if this is indicative of what other lines will do. Most ships not starting until much later in 2021 or even early 2022. 

I was thinking my Jan 2022 on Symphony was a sure thing but if NCL's announcement is a signal of what is to come it may not be such a sure thing.  

[Matt]

Don't forget NCL is going to mandate 95% of its passengers be vaccinated, whereas Royal Caribbean will not.  As a result, Royal has to conduct test cruises and NCL does not.

I think that's playing a part in its plans.

[Matt]

I also forgot the NCL's restart plans are all for the fall (earliest is October).  So it's not like they have 8 ships starting this summer. 

But they are still being much more open/aggressive with their restart plans.

[Vancity Cruiser]

8 minutes ago, Matt said:

Don't forget NCL is going to mandate 95% of its passengers be vaccinated, whereas Royal Caribbean will not.  As a result, Royal has to conduct test cruises and NCL does not.

I think that's playing a part in its plans.

Hopefully.......I was very surprised to see the dates for their restart plan. If Royal is able to restart more cruises quicker as a result of conducting test sailings this could open up more market for Royal as well.

[cruisinghawg]

They (NCL) may be waiting to see what happens with other lines and what their experience may be.

[Tanner]

Unpleasantly surprised how far down the road those dates are.

[Matt]

Cruise executives have always said their restart would be slow.

I think perhaps the pace of some protocol changes may seem like things may have changed, but the cruise lines are doing exactly what they said they would do.

[Vancity Cruiser]

8 minutes ago, Tanner said:

Unpleasantly surprised how far down the road those dates are.

That was my reaction as well. 

[Vancity Cruiser]

8 minutes ago, Matt said:

Cruise executives have always said their restart would be slow.

I think perhaps the pace of some protocol changes may seem like things may have changed, but the cruise lines are doing exactly what they said they would do.

I wonder what that will do to cruise fares in the short term as demand far exceeds supply

[steverk]

9 minutes ago, Matt said:

Cruise executives have always said their restart would be slow.

I think perhaps the pace of some protocol changes may seem like things may have changed, but the cruise lines are doing exactly what they said they would do.

I agree! In fact, I'm surprised at how fast things are progressing.

[cruisellama]

Which is why I continue to believe the Alaskan season also will be pushed so far right as to be insignificant.  Could see it start and end in Sept.

[stevendom57]

I always expected that bootstrapping the cruise industry would take time. They have never had to do this before.

 

[Matt]

2 hours ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

I wonder what that will do to cruise fares in the short term as demand far exceeds supply

I feel like a lot of people were worried about prices, but they haven’t been as bad as some feared. 
 

Remember when Adventure and Vision went on sale? Prices were quite reasonable. 
 

The Anthem sailings out of England had some Brits complaining they were higher than other lines, but I think comparing Royal to some of the cheaper European lines is not exactly apples to apples

Certainly the risk of cruises selling out may be higher, but I don’t think we will see sky rocketing fares ...outside of the usual annual price increases. 

[Ampurp85]

I can see a slow restart as a precaution. Things are still pretty fluid for a lot of things. Imagine if they restarted all the ships and something happened. That would be a lot of loss revenue and extra cost. The demand seems nice and high because we are invested but I recall reading that new pax make up over 30% of sailings. I don't think the consumer confidence is there yet. With all the requirements and restriction to restart, it makes sense for a slow rollout. That's probably why fares are higher but not ridiculous.

[AshleyDillo]

7 hours ago, Matt said:

Don't forget NCL is going to mandate 95% of its passengers be vaccinated, whereas Royal Caribbean will not.  As a result, Royal has to conduct test cruises and NCL does not.

Royal has tried to stay out of the mandatory vaccination debate for as long as they can and they are still going to try and stay out of it with the test cruises.  I don't see Royal doing mandatory vaccinations across the fleet unless their hands are tied.  It's my understanding that they had to with the Bahamas sailings to appease the Bahamian government.  And maybe with Alaska it's the only way they feel they will have enough time to save their season, plus the age demographic on Alaska sailings is likely to naturally fall closer to that 95% vaccination threshold.  

[JSB_Z51]

8 hours ago, AshleyDillo said:

Royal has tried to stay out of the mandatory vaccination debate for as long as they can and they are still going to try and stay out of it with the test cruises.  I don't see Royal doing mandatory vaccinations across the fleet unless their hands are tied.  It's my understanding that they had to with the Bahamas sailings to appease the Bahamian government.  And maybe with Alaska it's the only way they feel they will have enough time to save their season, plus the age demographic on Alaska sailings is likely to naturally fall closer to that 95% vaccination threshold.  

I don't intend to come off disrespectful but I read Royal expects those eligible for a vaccine to have one.  Policy is on the website now too.  Over 16 before August 1 and 12 and over after August.  That said, my TA said the vaccine requirement is only for 3 ships right now.  All so contradictory and confusing.  At this point I am likely in the minority but just want a refund and will revisit a cruise when and if life gets back to normal.  

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57202890

[AshleyDillo]

11 minutes ago, JSB_Z51 said:

Policy is on the website now too.  Over 16 before August 1 and 12 and over after August.  That said, my TA said the vaccine requirement is only for 3 ships right now.  All so contradictory and confusing. 

Agree.  All the conflicting information out there makes it very confusing.  I can only find on the website that the vaccine requirements pertain to the sailings from Seattle and The Bahamas currently.  There is another blurb about other international ports, but nothing to indicate that sailings out of the US ports will have the same requirement.

[Neesa]

15 minutes ago, JSB_Z51 said:

I don't intend to come off disrespectful but I read Royal expects those eligible for a vaccine to have one.  Policy is on the website now too.  Over 16 before August 1 and 12 and over after August.  That said, my TA said the vaccine requirement is only for 3 ships right now.  All so contradictory and confusing.  At this point I am likely in the minority but just want a refund and will revisit a cruise when and if life gets back to normal.  

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57202890

I second your post, I don't believe we are in the minority of family's  with children in this age bracket. I don't begrudge the companies protocols to sail or others comfort regarding sailing. We will be asking for refunds moving forward also. I would never have previously booked if I was aware of the stipulations. Land based vacations until this works itself out, life is good if this is my most pressing decision..Humm, where will I vacation? I think I am blessed, trying not to let this get me down. Their product, their rules. 

[jticarruthers]

Nothing really makes sense at the moment ...

Nothing officially announced but NCL is slow rolling future deployment at the same time as other lines are adding back cruises into their July schedules ... why do some think they are going to sail immediately where others sound like its going to be a while.

The whole vaccinated/not vaccinated thing is a cluster brought to you by the most litigious society on the face of the planet combined with a public health agency gone mad and a whole bunch of people who are so scared that they might die before they come out of their basements again.

I was ready to sail a year ago with no new protocols except common sense and I'm still ready now, looking forward to Adventure in June and hoping that there is something on my schedule after that but who knows at this point.

[steverk]

58 minutes ago, jticarruthers said:

Nothing really makes sense at the moment ...

Actually, I think it all makes perfect sense. 

Each cruise line is going in to their bunkers and examining their status and opportunities.  Some of the things they have to consider:

• What ships can we staff and at what time period?
• What itineraries make the most sense from a demographic, feasibility, and profit perspective?
• Where does it make sense to do test sailings and where does it make sense to enforce vaccines?
• and much more!

Each cruise line is in a different position on all of these items. Therefore, each comes up with a different solution.

Lastly, none of these cruise lines has done this before. Since the restart was a moving target, they couldn't do much pre-planning.  Therefore, they are figuring out as they go. Just like we are.

It's frustrating, but I'm encouraged that US cruising appears to be moving forward much faster than I expected.  I really believe my Thanksgiving and Christmas cruises will happen.

[WhiteSoxFan]

Not only are there the ever evolving rules and guidelines that the cruise lines are attempting to navigate, but the logistics of restarting is another hurdle.  Getting contracts signed, transporting crew, quarantining them & getting them all vaccinated is going to take time.  Managing that for 24 ships is going slow the quick restart that people are hoping for.

I have my backup vacation already planned if my early September Brilliance sailing doesn't go.  I'm pretty confident that I'll be needing it.

[Vancity Cruiser]

I could be completely wrong but my interpretation is this. Royal requires every eligible person to be vaccinated in order to sail. On the cruises that state ‘fully vaccinated’ they will only allow vaccinated folks (no children)on. On the other sailings they still require all eligible people to be vaccinated but will also allow children under vaccination eligible age as well.

 

So all eligible people must be vaccinated to cruise Royal Caribbean. Some ships will only allow these folks but some ships will allow children as well.

[0_0]

CDC could've made it so much easier on the family oriented lines by stating it differently. What percentage of passengers on cruises are under 12? This data isn't available anywhere I've seen. But my best guess in what I've seen, there's a maximum of 200 kids under 12 on cruises that are carrying 4k-6k passengers. I don't think I've ever seen more than 5% of a ship filled with <12yo 

For ships with at least 95% of crew and 100% of passengers over 12 years old fully vaccinated. < Writing it this way would've made it 100% more clear.

[smokeybandit]

11 minutes ago, 0_0 said:

CDC could've made it so much easier on the family oriented lines by stating it differently. What percentage of passengers on cruises are under 12? This data isn't available anywhere I've seen. But my best guess in what I've seen, there's a maximum of 200 kids under 12 on cruises that are carrying 4k-6k passengers. I don't think I've ever seen more than 5% of a ship filled with <12yo 

For ships with at least 95% of crew and 100% of passengers over 12 years old fully vaccinated. < Writing it this way would've made it 100% more clear.

You're asking a lot of the CDC

[Matt]

14 minutes ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

I could be completely wrong but my interpretation is this. Royal requires every eligible person to be vaccinated in order to sail. On the cruises that state ‘fully vaccinated’ they will only allow vaccinated folks (no children)on. On the other sailings they still require all eligible people to be vaccinated but will also allow children under vaccination eligible age as well.

 

So all eligible people must be vaccinated to cruise Royal Caribbean. Some ships will only allow these folks but some ships will allow children as well.

Kids are allowed on all Royal Caribbean or Celebrity Cruises.

In the case of Celebrity, they've said once the ship hits 5% capacity of unvaccinated passengers during bookings, passengers under 16 who are unvaccinated will not be able to purchase a ticket.

[0_0]

12 minutes ago, Matt said:

Kids are allowed on all Royal Caribbean or Celebrity Cruises.

In the case of Celebrity, they've said once the ship hits 5% capacity of unvaccinated passengers during bookings, passengers under 16 who are unvaccinated will not be able to purchase a ticket.

This seems like the fastest path back to service and how they can book families under current guidance. Test cruises with the extra protocols will cause restart delays. At this point it's almost a choice of cruise vaccinated or wait until fall when the current CSO expires to sail.

I foresee the CDC denying 1 or 2 "test" voyages that are run before gaining approval, and they've got to do it for EVERY ship. 

[JimnKathy]

One thing I find pretty bizarre is the concept of requiring test cruises FOR EVERY INDIVIDUAL SHIP.

Seems to me if a cruise line can successfully complete one or two test cruises in total, it proves that the protocols employed are working correctly and that the cruise line is good to get the regular sailings out to sea.