What to Make of This ........

[JeffB]

I just got an email from NCL announcing an extensive European cruise season starting in July. NCL operates 17 cruise ships, 12 of them are scheduled from various EU ports to include Barcelona, Rome, Venice and more. My first reaction was, well, I guess Delrio means it. I forgot to look more closely ...... the named ships and itineraries are those that normally move from FL (and other US ports) to Europe for the cruising season there, so, nothing earth shattering here. 

But NCL is getting a jump start on that season over there and it's impressive in it's numbers and itineraries that start in early July and go from there. In comparison to RCG, it's very forward thinking and aggressive. RCG restarts from European ports are much less aggressive. A quick look shows these sailing dominated by RCL cruises shorter than 5n. Celebrity has longer itineraries from Athens (Apex), Rome (Infinity) and Amsterdam (Reflection) starting in July. Oceania, an NCL subsidiary, is less aggressive with several of their ships not planning sailing dates until October.

Anyway, I didn't look at this as closely as I should before jumping to conclusions but it looks like NCL will be (a) first out of the gate with a lot of European sailings and (b) has an operational plan that looks as if NCL does not care what the CDC does or what happens in the no vaccines in businesses operating in FL debate. I thought all of this interesting but, then again, I don't follow NCL that closely and others here may see this as old news.

https://www.ncl.com/cruise-deals/choice?intcmp=pro_hp_DISCTAKEALLFAS

 

[CrznTxn]

Looks like Delrio is not holding his breath on the judge's ruling tomorrow and has decided to go where the grass is definitely greener and not protected by barbed wire put up by a cattle baron.

[twangster]

It's hard to tell.  Once they announce and start selling something it's hard to undo that a few weeks later so they are kind of committed to what they already put in motion.  We'll have to see.  

[JeffB]

NCL's president, Harry Sommer, appeared on GMA this morning. The lead story was laid out as a clash between the cruise lines and FL Governor Desantis' no vaccines stand.  Obviously the story was born of Delrio's threat to move NCL ships out of FL ports - a threat I consider pure theater. Sommer was asked direct questions about NCL's plan and, as one would expect, he didn't answer them directly, e.g. will NCL abandon FL ports? The answer went something like this: We're working with the state of FL to reach a satisfactory conclusion that will allow us to sail out of FL in "mid-to late July." I have little doubt that NCL is shifting it's plans to generate revenue with sailings originating from European ports given the probabilities, as they see them, of the cruise lines having to operate under the provisions of the CSO. Of course, that's a worst case scenario but that's the one you plan for.

Without being asked about the CDC or the CSO, he added that NCL is in almost daily contact with CDC officials and, "we're hopeful that we will be able to safely return to cruising by working with them." No mention of the FL law suit being heard today - a much bigger story IMO.

Obviously anything related to a restart of cruising from US ports is fluid. The net impact of that circumstance is uncertainty of how to plan ship's operations. Frankly, I don't think the Desantis stand on vaccines is a major player. We've discussed why elsewhere. The status of the CSO is. My sense is the cruise lines are struggling to identify an operational plan for it's ships and, if NCL is an indicator of direction, it appears the industry is falling back on a European lite cruise season - the usual ships deploying from US to European ports but they will probably operate at reduced capacity. Even that's a guess because as little as we know about what cruising from US ports might look like in July with or without the CSO, we know even less about the details the lines may have worked out with European ports and government health authorities.

IOW, a mess right now for the lines. Hopefully some clarity will emerge today but I'm not holding my breath.