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CDC Guidance for US cruises- 98% Crew, 95% Pax vaccinated. Are you OK with that?


MrB

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56 minutes ago, nate91 said:


Also, why do we treat CDC guidance as gospel this year? No one has had a problem with medium rare steaks or eggs over easy before, and CDC guidance has been against those for years!

YES!! 1000 times yes! and dont eat raw cookie dough with eggs in it!

Just like the travel department makes travel advisories that US citizens can take in consideration and make their own decisions. I have been to Mexico before when the travel advisory said that I was in grave danger from Cartels. And yet....

 

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7 hours ago, alamode123 said:

I want everywhere possible to require a vaccine passport for entry when they are available. Flights, restaurants, theme parks, international travel.

It's safer for everyone, and would give an incentive for antivaxxers to change.

I am fully vaccinated but I 100% disagree with your position on this.  No disrespect but COVID is a virus nothing more and as much as they would have people believe it is so different from the flu it really isn't.  There are so many variants of flu which is why scientist have to change the flu vaccine every year and encourage people to get their flu shot.  COVID is no different it is here to stay and will continually mutate requiring booster shots but it should be a choice not a requirement and keep in mind 99% of people who contracted COVID survived just like the flu. 

The idea that we now need vaccine passports to keep people safe from a virus is ludicrous and vaccine passports will just strengthen the antivax movement.  The government state or federal should not have the power to take away peoples freedoms or restore freedoms based on a persons vaccination status.   

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51 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

CLIA with about as diplomatic of a "oh hell no" as could possibly be written

 

 

 

How many versions before this one was tweeted?

My money is on about 47 versions.

  • CLIA Executive Assistant: "Whoa!  You can't say that!"
  • CLIA Executive: "Okay, take the F word out.  How about now?"
  • CLIA Executive Assistant: "Still no"
  • CLIA Executive: "Okay, take "morons" out.  How about now?"
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I can't get this song out of my head.  

Everytime I read "CDC" in these forums this song comes flooding into head...

Why do you build me up (build me up) buttercup, baby
Just to let me down (let me down) and mess me around?
And then worst of all (worst of all) you never call, baby
When you say you will (say you will) but I love you still
I need you (I need you) more than anyone, darlin'
You know that I have from the start
So build me up (build me up) buttercup, don't break my heart

"I'll be over at ten," you told me time and again
But you're late, I wait around and then (bah dah dah)
I went to the door, I can't take any more
It's not you, you let me down again

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2 hours ago, JasonOasis said:

I am fully vaccinated but I 100% disagree with your position on this.  No disrespect but COVID is a virus nothing more and as much as they would have people believe it is so different from the flu it really isn't.  There are so many variants of flu which is why scientist have to change the flu vaccine every year and encourage people to get their flu shot.  COVID is no different it is here to stay and will continually mutate requiring booster shots but it should be a choice not a requirement and keep in mind 99% of people who contracted COVID survived just like the flu. 

The idea that we now need vaccine passports to keep people safe from a virus is ludicrous and vaccine passports will just strengthen the antivax movement.  The government state or federal should not have the power to take away peoples freedoms or restore freedoms based on a persons vaccination status.   

As of yesterday, there are probably 593,000 in the US who (if they were still alive), might disagree with your opinion on, "it's not different from the flu."

It's very different from the flu.  Given it's lethality, it makes no sense to pack people into a congregate setting like a cruise ship without requiring proof-of-vaccination.  Sure, boosters will be required as the virus mutates in the wild, but if you want the CDC to allow cruising again?

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18 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Q2 financials will be further depressed with bringing on crew to start vaccinations and quarantine.  Then  a delayed Q3 start with delayed opportunity for revenue.  Hope those law suites can move the needle.

Q3 and Q4 financials were already toast and so are 2022 Q1 to Q4 compared to prior years.

They have little choice but to proceed on the premise of pursuing the elusive CSO certificate to sail regardless how absurd that may look.

If they don't try that is far worse for investors to ponder.  "Why didn't you try?"

Right now the CDC might as well add every guest must wear orange coveralls with black numbers on the back identifying each prisoner guest and the cruise industry would still need need to try.  

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27 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Lines will need to cultivate more overseas starts to stay viable to play the long game with minimum to no US participation.  

Probably but the numbers don't work in their favor.

The majority of cruisers are based in the US.  Adding flights costs to the quintessential cruise target family of four will dramatically reduce the target audience.  Add overseas vaccine and testing requirements and that target market grows smaller.  Multigenerational families?  Yeah, right.  

What they need to do is find an approach the reduces the bleeding even though everyone in the industry knows simply stemming blood loss won't cure the ailment we know of as the CDC, it just keeps the patient alive a little longer until a cure finally arrives.

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15 minutes ago, twangster said:

Probably but the numbers don't work in their favor.

The majority of cruisers are based in the US.  Adding flights costs to the quintessential cruise target family of four will dramatically reduce the target audience.  Add overseas vaccine and testing requirements and that target market grows smaller.  Multigenerational families?  Yeah, right.  

What they need to do is find an approach the reduces the bleeding even though everyone in the industry knows simply stemming blood loss won't cure the ailment we know of as the CDC, it just keeps the patient alive a little longer until a cure finally arrives.

Add to the mix the requirements passports. Sure most one time cruisers would rather not pay for something that might be used just once.

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20 minutes ago, CGTLH said:

Add to the mix the requirements passports. Sure most one time cruisers would rather not pay for something that might be used just once.

The is no such thing as a "vaccine passport."  There is the card you get after your first vaccination (and the 2nd one gets recorded if you got the AZ or Moderna one vs.the J&J one-shot-and done).  That data eventually gets reported upstream to the CDC so there is an electronic record.

You don't pay for it.  You don't pay to get vaccinated, either.  Providers like CVS/Walgreens etc. may take down your insurance info to back bill your insurance (if you have it) for the cost of administering the vaccine to you, but your cost is zero.

I'm sure there are people here old enough to remember "yellow cards", where you had to provide a vaccine record to cross certain international borders.  Technically a WHO "International certificate of vaccination or prophylaxis".  I needed one as a kid to travel in Africa.  They still exist.  This is nothing new.

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10 minutes ago, mk-ultra said:

The is no such thing as a "vaccine passport."  There is the card you get after your first vaccination (and the 2nd one gets recorded if you got the AZ Moderna on vs.the J&J one-shot-and done).  That data eventually gets reported upstream to the CDC so there is an electronic record.

You don't pay for it.  You don't pay to get vaccinated, either.  Providers like CVS/Walgreens etc. may take down your insurance info to back bill your insurance (if you have it) for the cost of administering the vaccine to you, but your cost is zero.

I'm sure there are people here old enough to remember "yellow cards", where you had to provide a vaccine record to cross certain international borders.  Technically a WHO "International certificate of vaccination or prophylaxis".  I needed one as a kid to travel in Africa.  They still exist.  This is nothing new.

Comment had nothing to do with a vaccine passport. Talking about https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports.html/

The kind that is required for international travel via air.

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10 minutes ago, CGTLH said:

Comment had nothing to do with a vaccine passport. Talking about https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports.html/

The kind that is required for international travel via air.

I sincerely apologize.  Kinda touchy about this stuff right now because I would really like to be on my late-August cruise ?

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We are both in our early 50's and have had our first jab of Astra, so obviously happy with being vaccinated, if that what it takes to get onto a cruise ship we are all for it. We decided to get it so we can escape fortress Austraslia. Two cases yesterday and restriction back in force, yes just two cases; stop laughing at us, LOL 

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Its very easy to criticize scientists when you have no idea what they di day to day  Without scientists there wouldn't be vaccines in the first place.

As for the CDC, remember there was a recent change in US government, and the previous administration stifled their ability to regulate many industries properly. We dont know how much of the higher ups in the CDC are new. or leftover from the previous administration, which appear to have drastically different priorities. 

Im not saying one administration is better or worse, just that the adjustment to a new administration is probably not yet complete.

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I sure hope your armor is in place, knowing what arrows will be coming your way very soon.  I find solace knowing that at least, in a few cases, the scales are being lifted from some peoples’ eyes.

Not to worry though.  I’m sure this thread will be locked down soon enough or your post erased permanently.  Thanks for having the courage to post it though.  Good luck.

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At some point soon hopefully a politician in the right place will desire to declare "we won" or "mission accomplished".  Once this occurs the public health emergency will be over and the CDC will be put back in the bottle, their magic powers once again constrained.  

Until that occurs it does not seem likely that cruising will return to anything close to the normal we used to know.  

The 98/95 vaccination approach seems to be nothing more than a means to bypass the test cruise.  This may not be a bad thing because I think it unlikely any ship could ever make it through an actual test cruise and come out with a certificate to sail under the CSO.  The CDC will always find something wrong during a test cruise and after 3 or 4 failed test cruise attempts the cruise lines will have to relent and submit a plan to require vaccinations.

Essentially the CDC will use test cruises to kick the can down the road another few months.

By the time the cruise lines have tried and failed to make it through the test cruise gauntlet the emergency use authorization for the trial vaccines will likely allow individuals 2+ to vaccinate.

Once we reach that point the issue facing the cruise lines will become how to handle guests who do not meet the CDC imposed 98/95 rule.  At the moment the Cruise with Confidence program would seem to be the answer even if that isn't the path that some will desire. 

It seems an extension of the CWC qualification period would be appropriate since it currently will not be available for cruises booked after May 31, 2021.

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9 hours ago, alamode123 said:

Its very easy to criticize scientists when you have no idea what they di day to day  Without scientists there wouldn't be vaccines in the first place.

As for the CDC, remember there was a recent change in US government, and the previous administration stifled their ability to regulate many industries properly. We dont know how much of the higher ups in the CDC are new. or leftover from the previous administration, which appear to have drastically different priorities. 

Im not saying one administration is better or worse, just that the adjustment to a new administration is probably not yet complete.

Why on earth should the CDC be regulating anything, cruising or otherwise?

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23 minutes ago, twangster said:

At some point soon hopefully a politician in the right place will desire to declare "we won" or "mission accomplished".  Once this occurs the public health emergency will be over and the CDC will be put back in the bottle, their magic powers once again constrained.  

Silly me thought (hoped) that would be after Biden's 100 days. Might still be after July 4, but I'm not hopeful considering the CDC put out an analysis that already hedged falling cases at that date (high vaccine uptake AND adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions will be to thank, in case you guys didn't already know or dared to think otherwise). That's a recipe for keeping things as they are now.

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9 minutes ago, LizzyBee23 said:

Silly me thought (hoped) that would be after Biden's 100 days. Might still be after July 4, but I'm not hopeful considering the CDC put out an analysis that already hedged falling cases at that date (high vaccine uptake AND adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions will be to thank, in case you guys didn't already know or dared to think otherwise). That's a recipe for keeping things as they are now.

The CDC will forever take a position to keep the public health emergency going.

At some point politicians will want to be declare themselves the victor and get out from under the weight of the public health emergency.  "Now that we beat the virus under my leadership it's time to rebuild America".  That doesn't work if the CDC is still beating their drum so they'll be told...

Joe Biden Reaction GIF by Election 2020

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On 5/6/2021 at 1:43 PM, 12thman said:

Since NCL needs 90 days to be ready to sail from U.S. ports and assuming Royal is in the same position will Royal be ready for November sailings? Since Phase 4 hasn't been released how can the CDC say you can sail under these terms? Will they change the requirements at phase 4? 

They're making it up as they go along.   Just keep moving the goal posts.

 

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On 5/5/2021 at 4:18 PM, smokeybandit said:

Pretty awful, unless the 95% route allows them to not have to follow these rules.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/covid19-operations-manual-cso.html

Uh...this is completely ridiculous. There isn't a chance I or any of my fellow passengers/friends will EVER go on a cruise where you have to wear your mask sitting outside, by the pool, in a lounge chair, with the sun beating down on us if we don't have a drink in our hand. This is insane and I hope it is all cleared up by December!

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Well, all quiet on the CDC front, or so it would seem. I've not seen anything in the last 72h that suggests the needle has moved. It's stuck at high noon probably waiting for the Middle Court of FL, Judge Steven D. Merryday presiding, to hear FL's request for an injunction against the CDC's CSO. 

There's no telling what moves the attorneys for the plaintiffs, Intervenors (Texas & Alaska) and the defendant's attorneys (Bacerra and Walenski) will make. There will probably be motions of a technical basis put forward by the defendants but that they haven't already done so may signal they are ready to defend their authority to enforce the CSO.

Here's a recap:

The complaint was filed by the state of FL with the Federal Court having jurisdiction on April 8th

Since then, there have been 35 separate filings. Things like summons, motions, addition of plaintiffs and such. Mostly technical things. The last on Friday, May 7th. There could be more before the Judge hears arguments next Wednesday. Some could be show stoppers that impose delays. There are different sets of rules for this sort of legal maneuvering when the plaintiff is granted an expedited  hearing.

The claim is filed under the category of Other Statutes: Administrative Procedures Act/Review or Appeal of Agency Decision. This is important because the claim is less about the CDC's authority to regulate maritime shipping operations to protect the public health and more about the administrative procedures that the CDC should have followed and did not in implementing them and the unprecedented length of time the NSO/CSO have been enforced.

The thrust of the claim involves the billions of dollars in economic losses suffered by the state of FL and businesses operating there in support of cruise ship operations. As part of the complaint, a through study of the costs to each FL port was undertaken, published and attached to the claim. The account is staggering.

The claim then shifts to accountability for those losses (HHS/CDC) and that administrative procedures outlined in pertinent U.S.C. that were not followed when the NSO and CSO were issued.  There are notifications that have to be made when the CDC wishes to act to carry out it's responsibilities to protect the public health from potential threats (disease) carried by maritime shipping (cruise ships) before actions are taken to give the ships/ports time to correct problems and make things safe.  The claim is that cruise lines or port authorities were not notified before issuing the NSO or the CSO.

Moreover, the extent of the CDC's authority to act under U.S.C. 42 is usually limited to single events and short time frames until the threat is resolved. The sweeping nature that has shut down an entire industry, in a discriminatory way, for over a year, far, far exceeds the intent of granting the CDC powers to protect the public health in the narrow setting of maritime shipping operations; it is further argued that only Congress has this level of authority granted to it in the Constitution. 

I know there are doubters here that the complaint will be resolved in FL's and by extension, the cruise industry's favor. The law is tricky and rarely straight forward to lay people like us. Unexpected things happen at hearings like this and that could very well be the case. But FL's complaint is strong and if it survives legal maneuvering on the part of the defendant's attorney's I think FL will get what it wants - an injunction against the CSO.

A poster in this thread, I believe, wondered if the contents of the CSO won't end up in U.S.C 42, Maritime regulations. It might but not over-night. US Code rests on Congressional legislation. If the CSO is enjoined, that means a Judge has said current law doesn't allow it. Modifying the law is hard and time consuming. 

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It seems like RC and other cruise lines will have to expansion their "foreign" cruise concept in the short term. Hopefully they can expand their operations in the short term and offer reasonable travel to the embarkation ports in places like Bahamas,  St Martin,  Barbados,  Mexico, and others.

The CDC is being obstinate and the only solution is to work around them and show the Washington politicians that people safety make their own decisions about their own health.

The truth is that at this point,  we don't need them anymore.

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