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Over/Under Guesstimates for Cruises Departing from American Ports


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I'm going to let some of my optimism return and say July 31st we could see a ship or two sailing.  Assuming a 5 week vaccination cycle and a few weeks post vaccination to get the ship/crew in shape, (re)trained, and ready for guests, that gives them a month to get the crew assembled/here for vaccination.

I wouldn't expect more than a couple sailing at first, but with ports already saying they're going to help with vaccinating the crew I think once the first couple ships sail the startup is going to be a lot faster than we'd expect.

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Crew vaccinations have started for at least some cruise lines. 6 weeks for those early crew to be fully inoculated,  so that's mid June. 

Since it will take some time to build up enough to crew the whole ship, I'm thinking  early to mid July 

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With the states/ports assisting in vaccination I don't think it's going to be an issue, they've got it down to a science.  The pod where I got mine was aiming for 1k/day and it's one of three in my small town.  University where I take some classes is partnered with the Walmart pharmacy there to offer weekend clinics to anyone in the community, initially they were maxing out appointments, now they're walk in.

I know in other parts of the world it's different, but here it feels like we're about half a step away from having people dressed as test tubes and syringes spinning arrows to get people driving by to stop in for a shot.  Adding a few thousand from cruise ships isn't going to be an issue.

I think the bigger hurdle right now will be getting the crew actually onto a ship, still think by the end of July we can see at least one ship sailing, if not a few.

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Right once the crews are stateside, getting them vaccinated isn't a big deal. But how quickly can they get them here based on the ongoing covid issues in other countries. Even the Philippines is having its worst covid surge so far (though it seems to be waning) and that would by far be a bad thing for crewing a ship.

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48 minutes ago, joshgates said:

I think the bigger hurdle right now will be getting the crew actually onto a ship, still think by the end of July we can see at least one ship sailing, if not a few.

I agree with this but think it will be earlier. Two reasons:

(1) The need for the cruise lines to start generating income is a significant drive of corporate plans and policy making on the mechanics of restarting. Getting crews back to ships is a routine evolution for them. The scale of the operation is just larger but the mechanics are tested and in place. 

(2) The actual numbers of ships that are going to pass through CDC's gates and start sailing in July, all things considered probably won't exceed 20% of all fleet capacity. That reduces the problems of (1) above and, I would think make the restarting, operation each line will be facing a lot simpler.

On the increase in infections within countries the lines rely on for labor, I've not dug into this as thoroughly as I might but it's been my experience from the start of the pandemic that reporting of it's impact has been exaggerated and can frequently be misleading. I think this is probably the case in both India and the Philippines. My thinking here rests on the belief that RCL, for example, would not have stopped crew members of Indian origin from returning to work without a careful analysis of labor needs given restart plans. They've matched labor needs with availability carefully, I think. They can get to what they need from Eastern Europe and Asia. 

I also think that there is a tendency to take national COVID data and apply it as if every region in the country is experiencing the same level of new cases. That is never the case. Regionality is the hallmark of SARS2. I suspect that is true in the Phillipines and probably in India although India is a different beast. Some of that behavior is explainable, a lot of it isn't. The bottom line is that the cruise lines, having measured labor needs v. availability will get what they need to restart at some lelel that they calculate will be profitable. At first, the margins will be small so that proof of concept is obtained. As we move forward into late summer and fall, I can see 20% capacity moving to 50% and then 75%.  

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This is as good of a place to put this than any on this forum. I've searched the literature for a graph that compares number of vaccines administered versus new cases, versus, new hospitalizations versus new deaths and haven't found one. The point it would make is how blitheringly obvious vaccines work in subduing SARS2 such that the virus will soon no longer be circulating at a rate exceeding 5% positivity among tested individuals.

Admittedly, collecting this kind of data and displaying it in the fashion I suggest has the potential to be misleading and subject to error. So, what's new. The CDC has been doing that anyway. Something like this would help change the narrative of predominantly negative messaging because ...... you can overlay in your mind's eye these two graphs and come to a similar conclusions as mine: The battle v. SARS2 is being wagged and won becasue of the miraculous success of vaccines. One noteworthy point from the graphs below: new cases took an uptick in mid-march and we started hearing dire consequences predictions of a 4th wave. It didn't happen. Vaccines? 

This should surprise no one. Recent history of disease caused by infection with viruses is replete with big wins for vaccines. What is a surprise is that PH officials haven't recognized that there appears to be a predictable endpoint because of the vaccines. At some point, not too far away, I would think, the likelihood of becoming infected from SARS2 and developing any symptoms let alone symptoms requiring hospitalization or worse causing death are remote. I could display a graph of weekly new hospitilizations and death but that would be even more startling.

If that is the case, why are PH officials so reluctant to tell vaccinated people they can resume pretty much normal activities by simply taking a few basic mitigation measures that the human race should have been taking all-along? It is that sort of guidance that I've been advocating for for months ..... tell us how to get safely back to normal recognizing that the risk of becoming infected with something is never going to be eliminated. At some point, that risk is acceptable and, IMO, we are very close to that.

I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but modeling could reliably predict that date and we should be gradually moving toward it. Along with that should come concrete steps which entail the relaxation of most of the current level of mitigation measures being imposed by state and county governments.

7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE WEEKELY VACCINATIONS

677803115_CaseNumbers.PNG.a9643365e35a8d5f261e952567f33165.PNG

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE WEEKELY NEW CASES

1423470340_CaseNumbers2.PNG.e395ef4492aa4d0d66693aed29729da0.PNG  

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I'm thinking that the all of Oasis and Quantum classes will definitely be sailing in reduced capacity by no later than 8/1 (could be sooner depending upon how well they roll out vaccines to crew members). I won't be surprised if most of the fleet isn't doing business by the end of August. But then again, I could be wrong about everything and am just throwing out Wild Azz Guesses (learned the WAG theory in MBA school while doing SWOT analysis on case projects ? ) just to generate fun discussion. Happy Sailing (very soon) to All! 

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6 hours ago, JeffB said:

This is as good of a place to put this than any on this forum. I've searched the literature for a graph that compares number of vaccines administered versus new cases, versus, new hospitalizations versus new deaths and haven't found one. The point it would make is how blitheringly obvious vaccines work in subduing SARS2 such that the virus will soon no longer be circulating at a rate exceeding 5% positivity among tested individuals.

Admittedly, collecting this kind of data and displaying it in the fashion I suggest has the potential to be misleading and subject to error. So, what's new. The CDC has been doing that anyway. Something like this would help change the narrative of predominantly negative messaging because ...... you can overlay in your mind's eye these two graphs and come to a similar conclusions as mine: The battle v. SARS2 is being wagged and won becasue of the miraculous success of vaccines. One noteworthy point from the graphs below: new cases took an uptick in mid-march and we started hearing dire consequences predictions of a 4th wave. It didn't happen. Vaccines? 

This should surprise no one. Recent history of disease caused by infection with viruses is replete with big wins for vaccines. What is a surprise is that PH officials haven't recognized that there appears to be a predictable endpoint because of the vaccines. At some point, not too far away, I would think, the likelihood of becoming infected from SARS2 and developing any symptoms let alone symptoms requiring hospitalization or worse causing death are remote. I could display a graph of weekly new hospitilizations and death but that would be even more startling.

If that is the case, why are PH officials so reluctant to tell vaccinated people they can resume pretty much normal activities by simply taking a few basic mitigation measures that the human race should have been taking all-along? It is that sort of guidance that I've been advocating for for months ..... tell us how to get safely back to normal recognizing that the risk of becoming infected with something is never going to be eliminated. At some point, that risk is acceptable and, IMO, we are very close to that.

I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but modeling could reliably predict that date and we should be gradually moving toward it. Along with that should come concrete steps which entail the relaxation of most of the current level of mitigation measures being imposed by state and county governments.

7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE WEEKELY VACCINATIONS

677803115_CaseNumbers.PNG.a9643365e35a8d5f261e952567f33165.PNG

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE WEEKELY NEW CASES

1423470340_CaseNumbers2.PNG.e395ef4492aa4d0d66693aed29729da0.PNG  

We are seeing big drops in cases here in NY.   My county's positivity rate is 1.17 percent!  It was over 4 percent not long ago!  I don't think it will go away completely until more people get vaccinated.  I was reading early this week that there was an outbreak in Oregon in a rural area where very few people were vaccinated.

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10 minutes ago, mjb1127 said:

I was reading early this week that there was an outbreak in Oregon in a rural area where very few people were vaccinated.

Right. If it were not for the fact that influenza has essentially disappeared, not for the fact that the world experienced COVID, we'd be reporting on minor outbreaks of influenza in Oregon ..... that is an important distinction re SARS2. REGIONAL OUTBREAKS. Look at reports by state. Plenty are reporting no new cases or only limited numbers and within states the new cases are by counties. IOW .... REGIONAL. In FL, its the tri-county S. FL region with the most cases and even then, Broward, home of PEV and Miami, home of POM, the 7w rolling average decline in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths, even with vaccine rates dropping, is obvious.

Let's get back to work, socializing and cruising.

The MSM has got to stop reporting national stats

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15 hours ago, mjb1127 said:

We are seeing big drops in cases here in NY.   My county's positivity rate is 1.17 percent!  It was over 4 percent not long ago!  I don't think it will go away completely until more people get vaccinated.  I was reading early this week that there was an outbreak in Oregon in a rural area where very few people were vaccinated.

Our case counts and positivity rates have been consistently declining throughout Shelby County, TN since vaccine distribution began. The biggest challenge right now is getting more folks willing to be vaccinated at this point. We have TONS of vaccines available now with the remaining non-vaxxed folks being slow to act. Businesses are beginning to really open back up and you can just sense an enormous sigh of relief by everyone that better days are to come. ?

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28 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

Better question. When will Royal make a decision about July cruises? We are now in May with July Cruises in limbo and vacation dollars being held up. 
 

when do you think they will announce decision on July cruises? 

 

Once the CDC clarifies questions and concerns Royal can begin to look at each ship and determine a possible plan to restart.  When?  Don't know yet.  

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My take is that things are so fluid right now, so many moving parts, that it is really tough to predict sailings by ship/date. I feel reasonably confident that ships will sail in July out of US ports but the first ship out of the gate in July is extremely hard to predict. Galveston and the four Florida ports list the following July Sailings .....

Galveston will have sailings. Liberty of the Seas is on Galveston's schedule to depart July 4th. 2 Carnival ships go on the 2st and 3rd.

Port Canaveral will have sailings. Mariner sails on the 2nd preceded by two Carnival and one Disney sailing.

Port Everglades will have sailings. Celebrity dominates sailings there with 9 cruises between Edge and Equinox.

Miami: Navigator and Symphony have multiple sailings scheduled in July

Tampa: Brilliance has 5 sailings in July. 

I got these port schedules from the link below. I follow Celebrity closely. If you look at the cruise mapper function I can see Edge and Equinox right about where I would expect them to be to begin preparations for sailings from PEV in July. You can do the same sort of detective work for your favorite RCL ships. I took a brief look at RCL because they have more ships scheduled from TX/FL ports and I see the same thing. They are where I'd expect them to be in preparation for revenue sailings.

https://www.cruisemapper.com/ports-in-east-coast-usa-and-canada-new-england-6 

I'm thinking that there is no way these ships would be milling about close to the ports where there are scheduled sailings if RCG didn't have a pretty good idea that these July sailings were going to happen. I also think that Bailey's "two paths to a restart" - or with/without vaccinations required weighs heavily to the vaccinations required pathway. That is because if RCL and Celebrity require vaccines, they avoid non-rev test sailings required by the CDC. I'd think those would be something to be avoided if revenue generation is a top priority. I could also see a hybrid schedule where some ships will do the test sailings then sail w/o vaccine requirements and some won't and by default require vaccines to sail.

Also having an impact on port operations in FL, just today Governor Desantis rescinded all his EO's issued under the authority he obtained by declaring a PHE.  What this does is essentially cancel state mandated mitigation measures fully opening schools, parks and recreation facilities and freeing venues to operate as they choose. Businesses can still mandate mitigation measures such as spacing and masks but what will happen is that businesses that continue to do that won't have customers when people can go elsewhere without having to deal with them. We may not see masks required during boarding in FL under this action by Desantis but I'll be surprised if mask requirements working your way through the cruise terminal are waived.

I feel pretty confident July sailings are happening with a slowly expanding schedule for more and ore ships as proof of concept is obtained. From the looks of the port scheudles I investigated, I'd say RCL/Celebrity will be sailing from US ports in the first week of July ..... caveat, if everything falls into place. I think it will.

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On 5/2/2021 at 2:23 PM, smokeybandit said:

Right once the crews are stateside, getting them vaccinated isn't a big deal. But how quickly can they get them here based on the ongoing covid issues in other countries. Even the Philippines is having its worst covid surge so far (though it seems to be waning) and that would by far be a bad thing for crewing a ship.

Sources point to several thousand have passed through recently and more currently. How many for sure  I can't even guess. I do know they were vaccinating heavy in Miami today...

As for my guess... ? CDC says mud July? Why argue? July 21... ?

 

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3 hours ago, deep1 said:

As for my guess... ? CDC says mud July? Why argue? July 21...

 

2 hours ago, cruisellama said:

At this point, timeline for crew positioning (vaccination and quarantine) is in the window to support a mid-Jul go.

Not saying either of you are wrong - everyone of us is speculating -  but, just wondering, what are you basing this on?

For months, posters have been echoing cruise line execs saying 60d from warm storage to operational. As far as we know, the ships that I mentioned in my post above that have first week in July sailings from Texas/FL ports are in a warm storage circumstance and, again as I pointed out are milling about smartly near those ports from which they are scheduled to sail first week in July.  With CDC restart guidance seemingly shaping up last week in April, a first week in July restart seems entirely possible. 

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I think the 60d estimate was from the days of no vaccines.  Just as we know a lot more now and there are many different thoughts on virus tactics, the cruise lines have been learning and changing.  They have experience now operating cruises.  We saw them load material months ago now.  It appears Navigator at a minimum is getting batches of crew every few days.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the clock doesn't start upon the big announcement we are all waiting for.  The clock has already started and they are already spinning up the machine, 60 days isn't the time needed anymore, at least for some ships.

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10 hours ago, twangster said:

I think the 60d estimate was from the days of no vaccines.  Just as we know a lot more now and there are many different thoughts on virus tactics, the cruise lines have been learning and changing.  They have experience now operating cruises.  We saw them load material months ago now.  It appears Navigator at a minimum is getting batches of crew every few days.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the clock doesn't start upon the big announcement we are all waiting for.  The clock has already started and they are already spinning up the machine, 60 days isn't the time needed anymore, at least for some ships.

I agree. Everything has already started to move.  I believe that we will see cruising from US ports by mid July at the latest, even from Florida ports. 

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12 hours ago, twangster said:

The clock has already started and they are already spinning up the machine, 60 days isn't the time needed anymore, at least for some ships.

On Navigator they have begun dry aging the ribeyes for Chops. 
If a new premium beef jerky appetizer is offered, we will know Royal got impulsive. 

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3 hours ago, AlmondFarmer said:

On Navigator they have begun dry aging the ribeyes for Chops. 
If a new premium beef jerky appetizer is offered, we will know Royal got impulsive. 

...and when they start decanting the wines at Vintages on Symphony, we'll be on our way soon after. 

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So Symphony is on the way to Cadiz for her scheduled dry dock. Thoughts on if this would affect the possible July restart? Wondering if the dry dock would hinder the restart of crew, vaccinations and such? Ship is due to dock on May 20th in Cadiz.  Booked on July 31st sailing and desperate to know the details from Royal!!!  LOL

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26 minutes ago, JennieUnderwood said:

So Symphony is on the way to Cadiz for her scheduled dry dock. Thoughts on if this would affect the possible July restart? Wondering if the dry dock would hinder the restart of crew, vaccinations and such? Ship is due to dock on May 20th in Cadiz.  Booked on July 31st sailing and desperate to know the details from Royal!!!  LOL

I'm not sure any of us know enough details to guess.  

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1 hour ago, JennieUnderwood said:

So Symphony is on the way to Cadiz for her scheduled dry dock. Thoughts on if this would affect the possible July restart? Wondering if the dry dock would hinder the restart of crew, vaccinations and such? Ship is due to dock on May 20th in Cadiz.  Booked on July 31st sailing and desperate to know the details from Royal!!!  LOL

Details are scarce. Tea leaves aren't.

Royal is doing something unique with their dry-dock schedule. There will be 4 RCL ships in Cadiz over the next 6 weeks, Symphony is one of them. The reason for this accelerated dry-dock schedule is to get these ships ready for continuous revenue sailings this summer without interruption, and attendant loss of revenue associated with dry docking.

The press is on to get crews and ships ready. The chatter about crew movement, vaccinations being given to crews in most FL ports and the widespread re-openings going on in FL and nationally, all point to a return to pre-pandemic activity in the coming months. July seems about right to me given the President's comments on get togethers on the 4th.

A late July sailing on Symphony seems almost assured, given the tea leaves. I think as far as the actual restart date, it is hard to identify which ship will sail out of a US port in the first 2 weeks of July. I'd say the second two weeks sailings are solid.

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43 minutes ago, twangster said:

I'm not sure any of us know enough details to guess.

Best part of guesses, knowledge only increases their accuracy but is not required. 
 

That said, my “guess” is the dry dock will not affect July restart and crew will receive their vaccinations while taking in some well deserved R&R on a Spanish beach. 

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23 hours ago, JeffB said:

 

Not saying either of you are wrong - everyone of us is speculating -  but, just wondering, what are you basing this on?

For months, posters have been echoing cruise line execs saying 60d from warm storage to operational. As far as we know, the ships that I mentioned in my post above that have first week in July sailings from Texas/FL ports are in a warm storage circumstance and, again as I pointed out are milling about smartly near those ports from which they are scheduled to sail first week in July.  With CDC restart guidance seemingly shaping up last week in April, a first week in July restart seems entirely possible. 

Most of the fleet is in pretty ready condition...  Whole lot different than cold storage...  Little more complicated than just add water but not by much. More crew already aboard many vessels than one might think. They have been in restaff mode also for quite some time. Though the  CDC only gave  details this week. My guess is the insiders of the industry have anticipated and we are already well in that 60-90 day  window of getting pieces back in place. I saw some activity last September that was short lived. Then recently seen much larger scale activity  in more places. Evidently Miami was doing mass Vaccinations  the last few days. I have heard  rumor of the hotels along rt 84 being filled with staff in Lauderdale and have some pretty solid info that Miami is also crawling with staff both at hotels and their own RCCL owned facilities.  I'd imagine, beyond vaccinations, training is underway for new protocols, rehearsals for new shows and other stuff already well under way. 

 

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One they complete the vaccine rollout and fine-tune crew training, things can get rolling pretty quickly. Assuming the ships will sail at reduced capacity, when and how will RCL leadership determine which passengers will be notified if their individual booking is cancelled to accommodate capacity reductions?

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