US cruises could restart soon with 'passenger voyages by mid-July,' CDC says

[UNCFanatik]

Will be interesting

45 days away from their first July cruise 

[smokeybandit]

Well the CDC has no vaccine mandate, just have to do the test cruises.

 

Unless this is all leading up to announcing a test cruise.

[twangster]

The CDC has to be working on another update.  

The trajectory of the pandemic is improving daily.  "The sky is about to fall" isn't sustainable messaging.

Maybe the cruise lines have an inside track on the next big CSO update and the timeline for the one after that.

[smokeybandit]

If they nix the shore agreement stuff, things start to move along fast.

[twangster]

Plus the concept of test cruises is suspect at best.  It's basically a boondoggle to give some CDC employees a free cruise in reward for their months and months of hard work.

[smokeybandit]

Another change to speed things up would be to allow test cruises to apply to the fleet, not one per ship.

[twangster]

With each passing week more and more protocols becomes less impactful. From the ridiculous and impossible shoreside healthcare provider requirements to masks between bites of food or masks at all to temperature checks.

A month from now will be night and day different from today and that is mid-June.  

They need to stop thinking like it's last year and projecting that thinking months into the future.  For once the CDC needs to use current data and real trends in their projections.

[jticarruthers]

21 minutes ago, twangster said:

With each passing week more and more protocols becomes less impactful. From the ridiculous and impossible shoreside healthcare provider requirements to masks between bites of food or masks at all to temperature checks.

A month from now will be night and day different from today and that is mid-June.  

They need to stop thinking like it's last year and projecting that thinking months into the future.  For once the CDC needs to use current data and real trends in their projections.

This is the crux, you have to think 60 days ahead and realize by the time cruises will be ready to start the pandemic will be in the rear view mirror ... the CDC is still fixated on a year ago and cant see whats coming.

[cruisellama]

56 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Well the CDC has no vaccine mandate, just have to do the test cruises.

 

Unless this is all leading up to announcing a test cruise.

Always thought test cruises with vaccinated players put the thumb on the scale.  If you're testing how well protocols work, you need to hang from the trapeze and then test the net.

[twangster]

Well well...

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/05/17/royal-caribbean-expects-new-cdc-update-cruise-ship-protocols-week

 

[smokeybandit]

12 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Always thought test cruises with vaccinated players put the thumb on the scale.  If you're testing how well protocols work, you need to hang from the trapeze and then test the net.

The point of the test cruises would have made sense a few months ago. Now everything that's being "tested" has already been tested many places around the world.

[Matt]

2 hours ago, twangster said:

The CDC has to be working on another update

Nice job calling it. Any lotto numbers you can recommend?

[JasonOasis]

According to NBC News there could be new travel guidelines coming in the few days it will be interesting to see what if anything the CDC changes to help the cruise industry. 

 

One other thing according to Christine Duffy Carnival’s 2022 future bookings or booking a year out have already exceeded where they were in 2019 looking a year ahead. I’m thinking with this type of pent-up demand cruising will be a bit more expensive for at least the next year to 15 months.

[twangster]

10 hours ago, Matt said:

Nice job calling it. Any lotto numbers you can recommend?

Just like with this next CDC update there is a big difference between lottery numbers and winning lottery numbers.

Let's hope we are all winners.

[nate91]

These updates have been so incremental that my expectations are low. What will it be, we only have to wear masks between bites if we are NOT chewing now? Maybe hot tub distancing will drop from six feet to five feet? Maybe our majestic CDC overlords will allow us an extra person in the theater!

[twangster]

22 minutes ago, nate91 said:

These updates have been so incremental that my expectations are low. What will it be, we only have to wear masks between bites if we are NOT chewing now? Maybe hot tub distancing will drop from six feet to five feet? Maybe our majestic CDC overlords will allow us an extra person in the theater!

I'm expecting something big like the 10% simulated voyage capacity minimum guest count will be dropped which sounds good until you realize the shoreside healthcare requirements still kill any chance of cruising under the CSO.

[0_0]

Court ordered mediation just posted. Nothing yet on the injunction.

047123010614.pdf047123010546.pdf

[smokeybandit]

So the judge is punting the case to a third party mediator?

[JasonOasis]

This bit of information just came out in the airline industry.

Viking Ocean Cruises (I know expensive) will resume operations out of Malta this summer and they have partnered with Lufthansa to operate special charter flights from New York (Newark’s Liberty EWR) to Malta for Americans booked on their cruises.  These flights are specifically for American’s booked on a Viking Ocean Cruise any one who just wishes to vacation in Malta, well you are out of luck and will have to find their own way to Malta.  

More and more options for Americans looking to cruise this summer no matter the price point as more and more governments around the world give cruising the green light for summer 2021 and allow American’s to enter.

Also another tidbit of information that may have an effect on the European Cruise industry is Spain will decided over the next few days or perhaps a week or two whether to reopen to American’s and if they are going to reopen Barcelona’s Cruise Port this summer.  If they do reopen the cruise port I don’t know if American will be allowed or not, we have to just take it one step at a time and the first step is reopening Spain.  If Barcelona does reopen its port it could provide Royal with opportunities to set sail in 2021.

[jticarruthers]

Continues to boggle the mind that pretty soon we will be able to fly to dozens of countries, take a cruise and fly back but still not be able to get on a cruise ship in the US which was the cruise capital of the world before the government decided to f it up.

[twangster]

When you think about test cruises it sounds simple right?  Simulated voyage, CDC tests the crew to make sure they follow protocols.

The CDC doesn't have people lying about doing nothing.  They'll need to ramp up a testing program to train and certify the observers so they are qualified to test the simulated voyages and rate the simulated voyages.

Anyone who has been involved with any corporate training initiative will understand that isn't something you do overnight.  Throw in the government and it's a massive project to stand up a testing program so they can grade the simulated voyages.  

[AlmondFarmer]

24 minutes ago, twangster said:

The CDC doesn't have people lying about doing nothing.

Source?

[smokeybandit]

59 minutes ago, twangster said:

The CDC doesn't have people lying about doing nothing. 

Good point. They tend to sit when doing nothing.

[twangster]

"lying around" - did no one get my jab at the CDC?   

[AlmondFarmer]

The CDC is headquartered in a big facility. My guess is there are beds in which one can lay or lie. Certainly chairs to lie in, if they recline one could also lay and lie. Interestingly a large portion of the building is designated to do nothing, which explains a lot. 
When I asked for a source I was hoping Twangster had a cool deck plan style photo showing these areas within the CDC headquarters. 

[smokeybandit]

46 minutes ago, twangster said:

"lying around" - did no one get my jab at the CDC?   

I got my jab at a mass vaccination clinic, not the CDC

 

[AlmondFarmer]

So how does the CDC get its power?

Their source of power is a proprietary blend of male bovine manure (large herd kept in basement) which is fused with ego. 
 

Quite astounding. 

[twangster]

So with mediation...

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/05/18/judge-orders-mediation-floridas-lawsuit-against-the-cdc-get-cruise-ships-sailing

This could be resolved by December.  Right?

[PG Cruiser]

Is the Royal Crown and Anchor Society on FB an official group or page  for RCG?  An admin there replied to one comment saying they PLAN to restart cruises in July.  Is that “canon?”

[UNCFanatik]

Both RCG and Carnival are "planning" to cruise in July out of the US but it remains to be seen if that will be possible. 

I am always "planning" to eat right and lose weight. Does that always happen? 

I hope something can get worked out by June 1 in mediation or CDC changes CSO so it will be reasonable.

[Phoenix]

26 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

Both RCG and Carnival are "planning" to cruise in July out of the US but it remains to be seen if that will be possible. 

I am always "planning" to eat right and lose weight. Does that always happen? 

I hope something can get worked out by June 1 in mediation or CDC changes CSO so it will be reasonable.

July at this point is 95% a no go, IMO.

[twangster]

VAX & RUN

 

[twangster]

 

[smokeybandit]

This will go nowhere for reasons totally unrelated to covid, but at least they're trying

 

 

[LizzyBee23]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

This will go nowhere for reasons totally unrelated to covid, but at least they're trying

I'm not so sure... Biden doesn't really have any options. I'm assuming that public pressure will swell to end the emergency before the next holiday season, absent major changes in the disease. Also betting the virus is headed for an endemic, seasonal cycle. So that gives the following options: End it now while cases are falling, but before a vaccine for young kids has been approved under EUA (if one ever is). End it toward the end of the year, when cases are inevitably rising (the burden of which is hopefully mitigated by vaccines) but bet the farm on a vaccine for kids being approved under EUA that gives you cover. Or end it next Spring when cases are back at a low but you've taken the political hit from extending it for so long.

I wouldn't be surprised if this measure makes it (it gives Biden an out when he would otherwise have to make a precarious choice), but I think the chances are slim. I think even a successful summer for the cruise lines doesn't necessarily bode well for a stable future until the public health emergency is lifted.

[JeffB]

I think many of us commenting on restarts,  when or if that actually happens, have concluded that terminating the PHE declarations, both federal and state, are key to limiting CDC's unlawful authority to impose policy. No one here, anyway, and growing  numbers elsewhere, are asserting that the CDC's PH guidance is sound. Quite the opposite and especially as it pertains to its negative impact on state's efforts to return to normalcy. Government officials and the public are fed up with the confusing often contradictory CDC guidance. All of the authority in the CDC's guidance, both the appearance that it is lawful  and when it might actually be lawful, goes away with an end to federal and state declared PHEs. And to be clear while the CDC issues only guidance, under the PHE that guidance gives life to every lawful pandemic mitigation measure still unnecessarily in place, including the CSO. It also gives rise to the COVID fear monkey narrative that is driving unnecessary risk averse human behaviors. 

Having said that, this mornings news is filled with announcements of lock downs in Asia due to rising new cases. It reminds that COVID outbreaks are going to happen going forward and be disruptive to mobility and travel until vaccines are more widely available globally. It brings up the question if cruising restarts from US and European ports, resumes soon in Asia, what happens in the middle of a cruise itinerary when health authorities controlling the next ports, close them?

I suppose one adjusts but this circumstance is likely to be a big problem for cruise lines and cruisers alike. While in the short term we all want the CSO to go away and cruising from US and foreign port's to resume ASAP,  there will be times going forward, even as the pandemic fades when there may be no place to go.

[UNCFanatik]

Eventually, a shift needs to happen with looking solely at case counts and the response from the government. Lockdowns and mask mandates have not shown to stop the spread of Covid. Just look at mask wearing compliance in Asia especially Japan yet cases are up. Targeted responses are much more effective. Protect the vulnerable. Vaccinate. Develop more therapeutics. Also when we hear case counts rising, we have no context. What is avg age of cases? And what % of these cases are asymptomatic? Are hospitals getting overwhelmed? 

Covid isnt Ebola. Covid isnt SARS with 15% mortality rate. We have lost perspective on Covid. Covid is endemic and will not go away. It will eventually be less harmful. Zero Covid is a fool's errand.

When it comes to cruising. Yes, precautions need to be taken but lessons need to be learned from this last year and policy needs to be adjusted to curb some of this abuse of power we have seen including the CDC. As I stated before, we cant turn public policy over to any one government agency. Turning the cruise industry on and off is not the answer to curbing case counts. It causes too much human collateral damage which in turn cause their own set of health issues when people are unemployed and cant afford proper preventative health care. We have been too hyperfocused on Covid while ignoring a vast array of other health issues that resulted from lockdowns. 

Its past time for the CDC to lift or strip away the most restrictive and unworkable parts of the CSO. 

 

[JeffB]

11 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

Eventually, a shift needs to happen with looking solely at case counts and the response from the government. Lockdowns and mask mandates have not shown to stop the spread of Covid

This.....and more. A good example of government overreaction to case counts, probably out of context, is Singapore's imposition of stricter mitigation measures on Quantum. What was the disease burden? Likely quite low but governments base line goal in some cases appears to be eradication rather than control. What's going on in Australia is another example of a PH policy goal that appears to accept near eradication, zero deaths, zero serious illness. None of those PH goals IMO are realistically achievable. So, yes, a "shift" is necessary.

TBH, that's going to be hard. 15+ months of hammering our brains with images of death and suffering, narratives of "dire consequences" isn't going to go away. It's baked into the minds of policy makers. I'm just not seeing the shift that's needed with PH officials who are likely to carry the pandemic trauma for years with that trauma influencing the issuance of bad PH policy in the future. 

I am seeing authors and scientists writing about a post pandemic world with the next virus pandemic just out of sight for now and the necessity of living with that, controlling it but not locking down to the extent of it for SARS2. That's encouraging but that's a long way from convincing governments to act rationally in the face of a fading SARS2 pandemic and the next viral threat that will most certainly come.

[twangster]

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/05/21/florida-tells-royal-caribbean-it-does-not-need-its-permission-cruise-ships-sail

Florida tells Royal Caribbean it does not need its permission for cruise ships to sail

[WesKinetic]

For the first time, I'm now cautiously optimistic cruises might actually happen this summer. If Florida has said "we're not going to hold you up," it signals they're not going to try to enforce their vaccine passport rule if the cruise lines want to require vaccinations. Regardless of your feeling about that law, it could have resulted in another drawn out court battle between the state, the feds and the cruise lines. By acknowledging they don't have the authority to enforce that on cruise lines and clearing away that concern, now we're just waiting on a final thumbs up from CDC.

Still, the waiting game continues . . . 

[Edit: upon further review, I might have been a little overly hopeful and this is more narrow in scope than how I initially read it.  Still, the more obstacles that start coming down, the better.]