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US cruises could restart soon with 'passenger voyages by mid-July,' CDC says


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12 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So then the 95% is a tacit vaccine mandate, which the CDC can't do.

 

It'll be interesting to see if the cruise lines try to negotiate something lower. And what happens if 12-15 yr olds can get the vaccine next week?  I wonder if the 18+ still applies or if they'd have to get it too

Perhaps the CDC knew vaccine approval for 12+ was coming, so the 5% is to account for <12.  

Personal thoughts aside, we know the CDC wants to find ways to motivate people to vaccinate and by extension their children when eligible.  

The way I see it the CDC left the old CSO in place in 99% of its original form for any cruise line that doesn't want to mandate vaccines.  The new easy road requires vaccines.  In this manner they aren't making vaccines an absolute requirement.  

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If the cruise lines can't get 95% any lower, if I'm them I do the test cruises anyway, otherwise you'd be stuck at 95% for some indeterminate time to come. Theoretically you could do test cruises while doing revenue sailings at 95% then change your policies later.

 

Otherwise, what happens if the powers that be deem everyone needing another vaccine after 12 months? It'll be a lot harder to get to 95% after that as I'm going to assume a tangible portion of the population won't get the additional shot.

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20 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

If the cruise lines can't get 95% any lower, if I'm them I do the test cruises anyway, otherwise you'd be stuck at 95% for some indeterminate time to come. Theoretically you could do test cruises while doing revenue sailings at 95% then change your policies later.

 

Otherwise, what happens if the powers that be deem everyone needing another vaccine after 12 months? It'll be a lot harder to get to 95% after that as I'm going to assume a tangible portion of the population won't get the additional shot.

That will certainly do the capacity control on their behalf.  

If they can only get 1,600 on a Voyager Class ship they are at 50% capacity on that date.  If they get 2,000 the following week they are at 65% capacity that week, and so on.

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32 minutes ago, icf75 said:

And what happens if I dont want my children to be given a trial vaccine? Are we banned from cruising?

The 5% that could be un vaccinated would only be a few hundred on oasis class, how many under 18' usually travel? 

Probably why they are taking so long to announce anything.  It's a lot for them to work out.

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20 minutes ago, icf75 said:

And what happens if I dont want my children to be given a trial vaccine? Are we banned from cruising?

If children are eligible for the vaccine, and Royal / NCL / etc say that all who can be vaccinated must be, then yes. You’ll be locked out until such time as you feel it’s safe for your kids to get vaccinated. 

It is your choice to not have your children vaccinated with an emergency-approved novel vaccine, and I totally understand your reasons. It’s easy for me to make the choice because all of my kids are 17+. If they were younger, I might well also have reservations about rushing to give them a vaccine the second it was approved. So I’m in no way passing any kind of judgement here; everyone must make that choice on their own.

But Royal and all other cruise lines are businesses. And business have the autonomy and authority to make rules and requirements such as this when it directly affects their ability to do that business. As @twangster has noted multiple times on other threads, the press is irrationally biased against the cruise industry and this is going to drive many decisions the industry makes. They know what will happen if a single case happens on board, and they will not take that risk after a year of no sailings. Their choices are grim: Mandate vaccination for all who are eligible, or don’t and instead mandate the safety protocols in effect on Singapore sailings, the upcoming UK sailings, etc.

It’s a no-win scenario. Mandating means losing potential customers like yourself and others who don’t want the vaccine. Not mandating means losing both those who vaccinated expressly to avoid having to wear masks while outside (and hopefully indoors as Health protocols continue to evolve) and those who demand that absolutely zero restrictions be placed on them during a vacation; AND losing any port that won’t allow unvaccinated tourists. But they need to get back to business and stop hemorrhaging money. So they’re doing the math, running the numbers, and offering what they hope is the best way to get themselves up and running again.

Its not permanent. May end up being longer than anyone wants, even well into next year depending how worldwide vaccination rates go. But it will eventually end.

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38 minutes ago, icf75 said:

And what happens if I dont want my children to be given a trial vaccine? Are we banned from cruising?

You're not banned, you're unable to go.  I'm in the same scenario with my kids.

My thoughts are initially, I'm not going to worry too much about any possibility until we see something more firm in terms of a plan.

I also recognize these are extraordinary times, and I really believe protocols for cruises in July 2021 are not necessarily going to be the same as September, November 2021 or into 2022.

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17 minutes ago, Matt said:

I also recognize these are extraordinary times, and I really believe protocols for cruises in July 2021 are not necessarily going to be the same as September, November 2021 or into 2022.

I am hoping for more relaxed protocols by the end of the year too.  We will have to take our vacation $$ elsewhere if our daughter can't sail. 

I am all for the cruise line doing what it needs to do so it can get back to sailing and avoid another shutdown.  So, if we need to make other plans we will and then get back to a ship when we can.  

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14 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I'm confident the end result return to sailing will be with kids on board.

The big three cruise lines (even NCL) and especially Disney have too much invested in family cruising to accept anything from the CDC that would not allow kids or force them to be vaccinated.

I don't think the cruise lines are in a position to negotiate.

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2 hours ago, Matt said:

You're not banned, you're unable to go.  I'm in the same scenario with my kids.

My thoughts are initially, I'm not going to worry too much about any possibility until we see something more firm in terms of a plan.

I also recognize these are extraordinary times, and I really believe protocols for cruises in July 2021 are not necessarily going to be the same as September, November 2021 or into 2022.

I agree I think the restrictions we see in July will be relaxed if not by November 2021 then for sure by January 2022.  

 

I think the first main concern for cruise lines is first and foremost get the industry back up and running once they've done this they can probably go back and and negotiate with the CDC.  

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2 hours ago, icf75 said:

And what happens if I dont want my children to be given a trial vaccine? Are we banned from cruising?

The 5% that could be un vaccinated would only be a few hundred on oasis class, how many under 18' usually travel? 

You have to do something pretty stupid to get banned from cruising

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I have never cruised during school breaks so can’t speak of the probably makeup of a sailing this July. I estimate that kids have never represented more than 5% of guests on any sailing I have taken. Royal could review their current passenger manifests across their fleet and see which ships they can pursue the 98-95-5 scenario and which ships need the test sailings without vaccines. 
Splitting the fleet in this way allows Royal  to market to a broader audience and potentially shift willing passengers based on family age makeup to satisfy requirements.  
Hopefully most of this is temporary. 

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They are supposed to approve Pfizer for 12-16 year olds next week and 2-12 by mid summer.  With Pfizer it is 5 weeks from first shot to fully vaccinated so it very possible to have 12 and up vaccinated by July and the rest vaccinated by Sept.

 

I hate to say it, but the anti vaxer will have to wait until the cases drop to nothing before the CDC will let them do anything close to normal.  Ironically, they are preventing that from happening as quickly as it could.

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1 hour ago, Tarheel0907 said:

Guys some boats may be vaccine only but for the most part the cruise industry can’t survive on vaccinated only customers. They just can’t. 

There's a better chance they can survive on a vaccinated passenger base than having to force vaccinated passengers to behave in a manner as if everyone on board isn't vaccinated or tested.

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

They only have to survive until the CSO expires.  

The bigger problem is ridiculous protocols.  Even the CDC admits vaccinated don't need restrictive protocols.  There is no way the CDC lets unvaccinated sail without restrictive protocols.  #notgoingtohappen 

 

Was there any direction on protocols for the 98/95% vaccinated cruises?  There was a lot about the test cruises, but if it was there, I missed it.

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7 minutes ago, wordell1 said:

 

Was there any direction on protocols for the 98/95% vaccinated cruises?  There was a lot about the test cruises, but if it was there, I missed it.

the vaccinated cruises still have to follow the CSO, which assumes no one is vaccinated.  Unless the CDC eventually changes that, which they did leave the door open to do.

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7 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

the vaccinated cruises still have to follow the CSO, which assumes no one is vaccinated.  Unless the CDC eventually changes that, which they did leave the door open to do.

I thought that was just for the "test" cruises

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8 minutes ago, wordell1 said:

I thought that was just for the "test" cruises

In a way it is but not how we want it to be.

The 98/95% rule is a way to bypass test cruises BUT it's not a way to bypass the rest of the CSO.  All it does is bypass the need for test cruises.

We all want vaccines to bypass the the entire CSO.  They don't, only the need to do test cruises.

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7 minutes ago, twangster said:

In a way it is but not how we want it to be.

The 98/95% rule is a way to bypass test cruises BUT it's not a way to bypass the rest of the CSO.  All it does is bypass the need for test cruises.

We all want vaccines to bypass the the entire CSO.  They don't, only the need to do test cruises.

I feel like i'm in a Monty Python sketch.

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23 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

 

Pfizer said they would have their data complete by September, which means October at the earliest for EUA, which remains to be seen if they get it.

This. The FDA has said they'll amend the current EUA without consent from an advisory panel for adolescents, but will wait for an advisory panel to convene for the younger children. Make what you will of that.

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Think of it this way...

How to get a job

Phase 1 - Go to college and attend lectures

Phase 2 - Take exams to prove knowledge

Phase 3 - Apply for diploma

Phase 4 - Spend endless hours searching for a job, cold calling, endless interviews, take job at coffee shop to pay ridiculous student loans.

Enter the magical College vaccine 

If you get the College vaccine you get to skip taking exams.

Phase 1 - Go to college and attend lectures

Phase 2 - Free vaccine pass, proceed to Phase 3

Phase 3 - Apply for diploma

Phase 4 - Spend endless hours searching for a job, cold calling, endless interviews, take job at coffee shop to pay ridiculous student loans.

 

The outcome is the same, you just don't have to take the exams if you get the vaccine.

This is the CDC's big new update to the CSO.  

 

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