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US cruises could restart soon with 'passenger voyages by mid-July,' CDC says


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20 minutes ago, 12thman said:

I'm not saying zero covid only an idiot would expect something like that. The point was fake vaccine cards can be obtained. Cruises will be in the spot light if covid breaks out on board. 

What makes you think they will use card that can be faked?

 

i don’t know what it will be but I am sure they will come up with the idea/system to verify vaccinations have been done.

 

no need to worry about something that hasn’t been decided 

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44 minutes ago, Ogilthorpe said:

One of the potential issues that I have not seen addressed is whether the vaccinated population and the Cruise taking demographic overlap enough to fill ships if they are permitted to sail.

Based on how slowly / poorly the sailings on Adventure and Vision are selling, I think that’s a fairly sold, “Nuh uh”. Even at 50% capacity cap, there is still a ton of inventory available.

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1 hour ago, Ogilthorpe said:

One of the potential issues that I have not seen addressed is whether the vaccinated population and the Cruise taking demographic overlap enough to fill ships if they are permitted to sail. Overall statistics show about 30% of the US is vaccinated, and demand for the vaccine is plummeting. It may not be the case everywhere, but locally, vaccine sites are now walk-in for all, but there are virtually no takers. If that becomes a steady state, then the Cruise industry will only be able to accept reservations from a small percentage of the population if a vaccine requirement is in place.

 

30% of the raw population (38% of those 18+) are fully vaccinated. 43% (55%) have their first dose.

82% of those 65+ have at least one dose.

But it's not just vaccinations for potential cruise takers.  You have to factor in the horrid messaging from the CDC that says cruising is a death trap and that just because you are vaccinated you have to follow a lot of the same guidance as unvaccinated. That surely will scare some fully vaccinated people away. You have some that just don't want to go on non-US homeport cruises. And others that in a typical year would go to the Bahamas or St Maarten but fear leaving the country. Yet others just don't want to deal with being tested to get back in the country despite being vaccinated. And yet others that fear restriction on a cruise ship right now just wouldn't make a cruise fun.

 

It's just not a simple vaccinated vs. cruise taker population cross section.

 

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You'd better believe that all the cruise lines are carefully examining data to see how likely the population, particularly the population in the states with cruise ports (Florida) is to be vaccinated. Whatever capacity sailing begins at, they will want to maximize that and sell the ship out. NCL has already promised that vaccinations are required, so you may see RCI and Carnival try a different approach. Maybe having certain all vaccinated ships is a good possibility, but cruise lines have the data to see what their typical pre-COVID sailing demographic is, and compare that to publicly available vaccine administration data.

And as @JLMoran stated, the data on sales of already announced vaccinated cruises are another great piece of information. Combine all this together and I doubt they expect to launch all ships as vaccine required. I could very well be wrong though.

(Tried to do all of that without talking about anything political or examining vaccine messaging. Tough!)

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7 hours ago, twangster said:

Bayley suggested there are two pathways to a restart.

One when vaccination requirements are met.

One when vaccination requirements are not met.

It's not that simple and they have questions submitted to the CDC for clarification but on first glimpse and highly simplified that's the gist of it.

 

The Radiance, Serenade and Ovation were supposed to do Alaska sailings but that isn't happening.  Could they start with new sailings on those ships and just restrict those sailings to vaccinated passengers?

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43 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

Based on how slowly / poorly the sailings on Adventure and Vision are selling, I think that’s a fairly sold, “Nuh uh”. Even at 50% capacity cap, there is still a ton of inventory available.

True but how many people drive to the Port?

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17 minutes ago, mjb1127 said:

The Radiance, Serenade and Ovation were supposed to do Alaska sailings but that isn't happening.  Could they start with new sailings on those ships and just restrict those sailings to vaccinated passengers?

Actually, never mind about the Radiance and Ovation.  They are in Asia.   The Serenade is in the Caribbean and would be perfect for a mostly adult only cruise.

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40 minutes ago, mjb1127 said:

True but how many people drive to the Port?

No driving to the port for Adventure (sails out of Nassau) or Vision (out of Bermuda). Well, maybe if you’re James Bond and have the car sub. ?

 

EDIT — Misunderstood the context of the question, sorry about that. I can tell you that I love to drive to the port, since Cape Liberty is so close by. I’ve done two other Bermuda sailings on Anthem out of there. But the subsidized flights for Vision made the cost only slightly higher than if I parked at Cape Liberty’s parking garage. And I’m getting a day in Coco Cay along with the Bermuda overnight, so this was a very enticing cruise for me.

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32 minutes ago, mjb1127 said:

True but how many people drive to the Port?

I would think that Royal can see which people usually fly and which usually drive by where they reside. (An Illinois resident likely flies if they're going to FL!) They can cross-reference that with Vision and Adventure sailings and see who is still booking. I agree that those who typically drive to the port likely won't go on Adventure or Vision right now. The question is, how much revenue would RC be leaving on the table by not requiring vaccines, or alternatively, by requiring them? It all comes down to profit, something cruise lines desperately need right now. Whichever option maximized profit, or at least projected profit (all vax, no vax, some of each) will win.

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I do see the CDC letter as encouraging.  But I also see many challenges ahead and details to be worked out.

I am not that confident that cruises will start out of the US in July.  But hoping I am wrong.

And the requirements to cruise  (like being vaccinated, limited ships, reduced occupancy, no kids, etc) are all temporarily in place to get cruising started.   If they have to  start with 50% occupancy, vaccinated passengers and crew, and no younger children I do not see a problem.  It will get better in time.  Some passengers might have to wait a bit longer until they can or are comfortable with cruising.  Cruising is a choice and a vacation.  

I have had 8 cruise cancelled because of Covid.   I really want to cruise.  My next cruise in September and I am not counting on it sailing.   Over 7 days and out of Southampton,  But really planning on December cruise happening.

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90 or so responses and I can't remember ever seeing as much negativity as I just have? We got what we want! Now there is an avalanche of overthought, baseless, "what ifs" and could be's and.... Were supposed to be pumped. We knew all along that masks and vaccinations would be part of the deal and now the moaning surfaces?  I thought this group was supposed to be steadfast cruisers. A week ago you didn't mind the masks and vacs but today you do?  Stay on the beach if you wish but I'll be on an upper deck waving bye bye... 

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1 hour ago, nate91 said:

You'd better believe that all the cruise lines are carefully examining data to see how likely the population, particularly the population in the states with cruise ports (Florida) is to be vaccinated. Whatever capacity sailing begins at, they will want to maximize that and sell the ship out. NCL has already promised that vaccinations are required, so you may see RCI and Carnival try a different approach. Maybe having certain all vaccinated ships is a good possibility, but cruise lines have the data to see what their typical pre-COVID sailing demographic is, and compare that to publicly available vaccine administration data.

And as @JLMoran stated, the data on sales of already announced vaccinated cruises are another great piece of information. Combine all this together and I doubt they expect to launch all ships as vaccine required. I could very well be wrong though.

(Tried to do all of that without talking about anything political or examining vaccine messaging. Tough!)

But for any any ship to set sail the CDC requires 95% of the passengers be fully vaccinated so cruise lines don't really have a choice.  And I'm willing to go out on a limb and say the CDC will be all over this especially for the first few months trying to see if any cruise lines break the rules and set sail without hitting the mandatory 95% for passengers.   As much as I want to get excited about this news I'm not sure it is as simple as it is being presented.  The CDC is placing the ownness on the cruise lines to verify they've hit the 95% threshold. With the possibility of passengers presenting fake vaccine cards cruise lines will have to take this one step further and perhaps verify passengers have in fact been vaccinated.  We are seeing a similar system being deployed in Israel where Israel requires airlines to verify all passengers are vaccinated before departure but then upon arrival at Tel Aviv passengers will be given a quick serological test that confirms the individual has in fact been vaccinated and they didn't present a fake vaccination card to the airline.

There are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding how cruise lines will verify individuals are vaccinated and not simply presenting a fake vaccination card.

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2 hours ago, Ogilthorpe said:

One of the potential issues that I have not seen addressed is whether the vaccinated population and the Cruise taking demographic overlap enough to fill ships if they are permitted to sail. Overall statistics show about 30% of the US is vaccinated, and demand for the vaccine is plummeting. It may not be the case everywhere, but locally, vaccine sites are now walk-in for all, but there are virtually no takers. If that becomes a steady state, then the Cruise industry will only be able to accept reservations from a small percentage of the population if a vaccine requirement is in place.

I don't have hard numbers but all my cruising friends got or are getting the vaccine SO they can sail. Myself a combo of that and I also saw the Bahama "thing" coming ... I work there frequently  and this saves me an expensive test over and over. For the record I'm not overly "Pro Vaccine" but if it gets me on a ship then so be it. I'm not alone in that view... 

 

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I really don't think the CDC can or will be that picky about the 95%.

 

What if you're at 94.6% and you have a couple people bail out at the last minute, putting you at 94.4%? Are they going to cancel the cruise? Unlikely.

To me it's nothing but a way for the CDC to say "have vaccinated cruises" without outright mandating a vaccine.

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11 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

What if you're at 94.6% and you have a couple people bail out at the last minute, putting you at 94.4%? Are they going to cancel the cruise?

Rumor is that Fauci will be at the port with his slide rule keeping an accurate count. 
Remember the CDC rounds down. So to be safe, Royal should achieve 100% because 99% rounds down to 90% which is below 95%. 

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I too am a bit shocked by how pessimistic a lot of people are being about this more positive news. All the cruises not cruising from US ports require vaccination. We all have been assuming that to start there would be mask and vaccination requirements. 95 and 98% are not bad numbers and very easy to achieve. This is not something I would consider jumping through hoops.

 

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33 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

I too am a bit shocked by how pessimistic a lot of people are being about this more positive news. All the cruises not cruising from US ports require vaccination. We all have been assuming that to start there would be mask and vaccination requirements. 95 and 98% are not bad numbers and very easy to achieve. This is not something I would consider jumping through hoops.

 

I think we are all being cautious having been let down before.

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39 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

I too am a bit shocked by how pessimistic a lot of people are being about this more positive news. All the cruises not cruising from US ports require vaccination. We all have been assuming that to start there would be mask and vaccination requirements. 95 and 98% are not bad numbers and very easy to achieve. This is not something I would consider jumping through hoops.

 

It got so bad on FB thats I started my own "Royal Caribbean No Negativity" group over there... 

 

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33 minutes ago, twangster said:

I think we are all being cautious having been let down before.

This. I also think that the pandemic has changed a LOT since Summer 2020, or even Winter 2020. While at one point we all thought masks would be required, then vaccines arrived. At that point no one had access to vaccines, so we assumed masks and vaccines. Now vaccines are available to everyone over 16, and CDC has changed it's masking advice to not be recommended outside. So I don't think it's unreasonable to pontificate on what could/should be. A lot of us see that the pandemic is changing (read: getting better) quickly and think that policies and procedures should evolve along with it.

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@twangster Your post are more so neutral than negative...which is cautious. I get being cautious.

I am more so speaking about people who want to cruise but are balking at the vaccine requirements. I have had quite a few cruises cancelled and I get that hopes have risen only to be dashed again and again. I chose to wait after three bookings were cancelled and decided not to book anymore until fall of 2021 to save myself the disappointment.  So this news is positive as my sailings commence in October.

I guess I just expected more positive speculation....but meh.

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12 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

@twangster Your post are more so neutral than negative...which is cautious. I get being cautious.

I am more so speaking about people who want to cruise but are balking at the vaccine requirements. I have had quite a few cruises cancelled and I get that hopes have risen only to be dashed again and again. I chose to wait after three bookings were cancelled and decided not to book anymore until fall of 2021 to save myself the disappointment.  So this news is positive as my sailings commence in October.

I guess I just expected more positive speculation....but meh.

Everyone is out of sorts with a year plus of no cruising.  Like kids who need a nap, we all just need a cruise before we will be back to ourselves.

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6 hours ago, JLMoran said:

Based on how slowly / poorly the sailings on Adventure and Vision are selling, I think that’s a fairly sold, “Nuh uh”. Even at 50% capacity cap, there is still a ton of inventory available.

I don't see  that Adventure sales are anything but brisk... I checked dates out to September and a number of categories are sold out up and down the line   and price increases have taken place in some situations... Even when I did find the combo of things I was looking for regarding category dates et. sections of the ship were already sold out.  I can't speak to Vision as I didn't shop it but may. The potential restart in USA I'm sure will distract  from their sailings though... 

 

 

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Im travelling with a 13, and 17 year old who more than likely wont be vaccinated ( my wife and I are).

I also do not want my children vaccinated whilst the vaccines are still officially under trial. I can only hope that for this summer they allow children on board with a negative test.  If after that cruises are for vaccinated persons only I will no longer be cruising!

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1 hour ago, icf75 said:

Im travelling with a 13, and 17 year old who more than likely wont be vaccinated ( my wife and I are).

I also do not want my children vaccinated whilst the vaccines are still officially under trial. I can only hope that for this summer they allow children on board with a negative test.  If after that cruises are for vaccinated persons only I will no longer be cruising!

If the emergency injunction against the CDC and the CSO on May 12 is successful you won't have any issues.  At least not from a Florida port.

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

If the emergency injunction against the CDC and the CSO on May 12 is successful you won't have any issues.  At least not from a Florida port.

Sorry im not up to speed with this, but isnt it more to do with what RC put in place, based on the last CDC info to resume cruising?

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40 minutes ago, icf75 said:

Sorry im not up to speed with this, but isnt it more to do with what RC put in place, based on the last CDC info to resume cruising?

So far Royal has not put anything in place for US based cruises so we have nothing to give insight to what they'll do or how the unpublished CDC requirements might guide their policy for US based cruises.

If the CSO is struck down in court it opens the door for cruising without CSO requirements but we don't know what policy Royal might put in place anyways.

NCL has stated their policy will be vaccinate or don't sail for all guests including kids.  Royal has not stated the same policy.  

Royal did put a vaccine requirement combined with a testing requirement for those ineligible to vaccinate for Bahamas and Bermuda based cruises.  For kids that are currently ineligible to vaccinate Royal will accept a negative PCR test.  It's not clear what happens once kids 12 and up are eligible to vaccinate, assuming that FDA emergency approval is coming for kids 12+ as expected. 

At first glance the Bahamas/Bermuda policy would require anyone who is eligible to vaccinate to be vaccinated.  In that case kids 12+ would need to be vaccinated just like NCL.  I'm assuming Royal will implement a work around if the timing of emergency approval doesn't leave enough time for kids to be fully vaccinated with a two shot vaccine during an initial interim period.  

However all that is not for US based cruises, that policy only applies to Bahamas and Bermuda departures.

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2 hours ago, twangster said:

If the emergency injunction against the CDC and the CSO on May 12 is successful you won't have any issues.  At least not from a Florida port.

Florida doesnt have a chance based on their argument which states, "that the lawsuit is 'likely to succeed on the merits of the case,' and it is therefore entitled to the injunction due to 'irreparable harm and hardships' created by the CDC’s actions." 

Moreover, considering that the cruiselines have gotten the go for mid-July pending meeting requirements, the Courts will most likely dismiss and/or adjourn to a date past July to render decision to see if the cruiselines did what they had to do for a mid-July opening. 

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13 hours ago, Ampurp85 said:

I too am a bit shocked by how pessimistic a lot of people are being about this more positive news. All the cruises not cruising from US ports require vaccination. We all have been assuming that to start there would be mask and vaccination requirements. 95 and 98% are not bad numbers and very easy to achieve. This is not something I would consider jumping through hoops.

 

It was just 2 or 3 weeks ago where the CDC stated the very firmly the CSO stands until November 1st, which frustrated cruise lines, their employees and passengers alike. Now they are saying we are committed to resuming cruising in July but with 98% of crew and 95% of passengers vaccinated.  Call me pessimistic that's fine but it seems like someone somewhere with some real authority is applying pressure on the CDC.  As good as this news at this point nothing the CDC says or does can be taken at face value, and I do believe the CDC will step back and hope the cruise industry in this country fails. 

 

Cruise lines in this country have stated they can manage COVID and resume operations safely without any outbreaks.  There maybe 1 or 2 cases on a ship every so often but no major outbreaks. I believe someone is putting the CDC back on a leash and saying give the cruise lines a chance to prove they can handle COVID safely in this country, and if there is an outbreak onboard a cruise ship we shut the industry down again.  This is why I'm cautiously optimistic and why I believe cruise line will need to go further than simply asking to see vaccination cards especially in the first 2 or 3 months after operations resume.  With there being a rise in fake vaccination cards if cruise lines don't take it a step further and verify vaccination status with a quick serologic test then it is possible that we will be right back where we are today in August or September.  In my mind I believe the CDC is hoping the cruise lines trust but don't verify vaccination status, so at the first sign of 50 or 100 COVID infections on a ship they can shut the entire industry down again.  And if that happens another shut down who knows when the CDC would allow cruise to resume.  The cruise lines have one chance to get this right and prove the CDC wrong I just hope they don't fill in the blank it up. 

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12 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

The concern over fake vaccination cards is wildly overblown.  Also if herd immunity supposedly kicks in around 75% vaccinated, then 95% is just the CDC playing games.

Let's just say your numbers are correct, wouldn't you feel more safer being around 95% vaccinated people rather than 75%?? I know I would. Don't knock it considering that's 20% of un-vaccinated people are the ones that you will be around and you don't know who those 20% are at any given time.

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18 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

Let's just say your numbers are correct, wouldn't you feel more safer being around 95% vaccinated people rather than 75%?? I know I would. Don't knock it considering that's 20% of un-vaccinated people are the ones that you will be around and you don't know who those 20% are at any given time.

I couldn't care less if I were on a ship full of unvaccinated people (as it used to be). The risks are minimal, and  those at greater risk should be vaccinated.  I don't like the idea of this mass coercion into getting the whole world vaccinated (that's a another topic), we need to live with this like we do flu! Not making people scared of the  'unvaccinated'.  There is now no reason in my mind why cruising cannot resume immediately.

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23 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

Let's just say your numbers are correct, wouldn't you feel more safer being around 95% vaccinated people rather than 75%?? I know I would. Don't knock it considering that's 20% of un-vaccinated people are the ones that you will be around and you don't know who those 20% are at any given time.

Given my age, health status, etc. I felt safe getting on a ship as far back as last May with just a t-shirt (aka mask) wrapped around my face.

A year later and having been vaccinated I have zero concern about what the status is of the people around me.

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22 minutes ago, icf75 said:

I couldn't care less if I were on a ship full of unvaccinated people (as it used to be). The risks are minimal, and  those at greater risk should be vaccinated.  I don't like the idea of this mass coercion into getting the whole world vaccinated (that's a another topic), we need to live with this like we do flu! Not making people scared of the  'unvaccinated'.  There is now no reason in my mind why cruising cannot resume immediately.

I've come to realize more and more that this is essentially my position, especially as cases continue to follow a seasonal trend despite containment efforts. It seems obvious to me that this is here to stay, vaccine or not. A lot of the arguments we're using right now to frame the problem will set us up for a future where we can once again be told to put our lives on hold if cases begin increasing again (as they likely will this fall). The only argument that has any lasting power is essentially the one you made: COVID is here to stay, people have the power to make choices which will limit their personal risk to a great degree (IE vaccines), and we are prepared to care for the ones who come down with serious cases of the virus.

I also think the coming fall will be a bell weather of sorts for future cold/flu/COVID seasons. The earlier than expected and more severe onset of RSV cases in Australia suggests that we may have inadvertently done harm to young children by locking down and depriving them of the opportunity to get infected and train their immune systems with commonly circulating viruses. If we have a worse than normal flu season, I can forsee a future where an emboldened CDC uses the last year of experience with COVID to continue recommending some of the same precautions that exist today.

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36 minutes ago, icf75 said:

I don't like the idea of this mass coercion into getting the whole world vaccinated (that's a another topic), we need to live with this like we do flu! Not making people scared of the  'unvaccinated'.  There is now no reason in my mind why cruising cannot resume immediately.

Your logic makes sense from the Wal Mart perspective, meaning, if someone catches Covid at Walmart, it doesn't make the news, and it becomes a statistic for the county.

Cruise ships are different because of the optics involved. You cannot have a cruise ship sailing and oops, there are 1, 5, 11, or 50 cases of Covid onboard, because the media will go absolutely bananas covering it as a "super spreader" event with non-stop helicopter coverage.

Is that right? Of course not. It's not fair, and it's not what should happen.  But it absolutely will happen. When there was that false positive on Quantum in December, that one case made the national news here in the U.S. for a Singaporean sailing.

If you think they can ignore the media coverage, then it becomes even worse. Unfortunately, you start getting legislators and public officials involved because the media hounds them with "Why where they allowed to sail? Why haven't they stopped the cruise?" Nevermind the public relations black eye of perpetuating the "petri dish" stereotype.

So you're absolutely right there's no reason cruising cannot resume immediately, but they also cannot restart without a great deal of safeguards in place first and then ease back on them slowly.

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As the thread evolves we see many different perspectives which is a good thing.

The challenge facing the cruise lines, in as much as they can implement a policy within the framework outlined by the CDC will be arriving at an approach that satisfies the most while keeping the company safe and in operation as the virus evolves and new variants come into play.

On one extreme we have going back to the way it was with no protocols and no requirements related to virus mitigation.  I'm not sure the CDC is going to allow that approach at least until Nov. 1 nor do I think any cruise line will attempt this as there is great risk to the brand and cruising in general should an outbreak, even a minor outbreak occur.

On the other extreme they have to go with Singapore like protocols as if there is no vaccine so that they don't have to ask the question "are you vaccinated or not?".  Any guest can be accommodated, any age, at entire ship of unvaccinated can sail. Protocols would include daily temperature checks, masks outdoors, testing every few days, distancing and capacity controls, contact tracing tracelets - all the protocols that allowed ships to sail safely without vaccines.

You can argue all you want why it should be one or the other but somewhere between the two extremes will be an approach allowed by the CDC that will be acceptable to many (but not all) potential cruise guests while minimizing the opportunity to feed the media frenzy an outbreak will induce.

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