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Will Oct 30/31 crusies sail?


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I wonder what everyone thinks will happen to cruises on the cusp of the CSO.

If the CDC doesn't allow for at least an August restart, I doubt July is happening. What do you think will happen with cruises that start a few days before the CSO is lifted? I see a few sailings that depart on the 30th and 31st of October, some of which are 7 days. Do you think RCG will start later, or cancel those sailings?

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Unless a miracle happens and the CSO disappears by the end of July, I don't see how we would sail from the US before November 1 at the earliest.

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade!

However, there are some indications that the cruise lines think that the CSO disappears in July.  Richard Fain has said he's "never been more optimistic." Carnival is moving ships to Galveston and staffing them up. Let's hope these tea leaves actually mean something!

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booked for spring break just shy of a year from now and i would not bet any amount of money on it sailing at full capacity, which means some people are getting the boot and not going on the cruise they think they are going on.  the CDC guidance on masks outside from yesterday was good news for the quality of the cruise for vaccinated people.

the world we live in now.  no idea when things will start and how limited capacity guidance/cancellations/bumps will work do we?   the one thing we can bank on is that there's going to continue to be a lot of future cruise credit out there for a lot of folks for a long time to come!

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3 hours ago, steverk said:

Unless a miracle happens and the CSO disappears by the end of July, I don't see how we would sail from the US before November 1 at the earliest.

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade!

However, there are some indications that the cruise lines think that the CSO disappears in July.  Richard Fain has said he's "never been more optimistic." Carnival is moving ships to Galveston and staffing them up. Let's hope these tea leaves actually mean something!

I agree, unfortunately. 

I booked a Labor Day cruise this year with a December cruise as backup. My guess is that even the December cruise could be cancelled. I would love to be wrong.

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I am sure if summer sailings don't commence, RCG will be ready to literally sail on the 1st of Nov. So maybe my question was worded improperly because I wasn't wondering when they might restart exactly. More-so if sailings on the cusp might be cancelled or start later. Like how likely will RCG scrap an entire itinerary for 1 or 2 days?

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

I am sure if summer sailings don't commence, RCG will be ready to literally sail on the 1st of Nov. So maybe my question was worded improperly because I wasn't wondering when they might restart exactly. More-so if sailings on the cusp might be cancelled or start later. Like how likely will RCG scrap an entire itinerary for 1 or 2 days?

 

 

There's no real telling exactly how RCI would handle an Oct 30 sailing if the CSO is in effect until Nov 1.  There's just too many unknowns. For example:

  • Does the CSO expire earlier? (Let's hope!)
  • If it doesn't expire early, does RCI have confidence that it won't be extended?
  • If it does expire on Oct 31, does RCI open all cruises immediately or bring them on line over several weeks? If so, is your ship one that comes on line first?

I'm totally uninformed about RCI's thinking, but these are some of the key issues.

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59 minutes ago, Cakemeister said:

I agree, unfortunately. 

I booked a Labor Day cruise this year with a December cruise as backup. My guess is that even the December cruise could be cancelled. I would love to be wrong.

Not a real happy forecast!

Do keep in mind that there are at least some positive signs out there for a July restart, even if they aren't overwhelming.

Also, if the CSO continues, then perhaps RCI will extend Adventure's time in the Bahamas through the holidays.  If they do, then I'm on it with the family!

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If I ran a cruise line I would direct all effort to become certified under the CSO to cease immediately pending a revision that is workable.  If a revised CSO was published it could be reviewed upon release to determine how viable it would be to seek certification.  

The more likely path to a restart is something occuring that takes the CSO out of the equation.    Until that happens spending another dime playing along with the CDC is insanity.  Much better to hope for something that eradicates the CSO.  Basically we need a CSO vaccine.  

To that end I'd direct all efforts at having 100% of US operational capacity available to sail on Nov. 1 with no protocols in place, if I were king for a day. 

Nov. 1 = business as usual.  Anything prior is only going to happen if the CSO happens to be wiped out.

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@twangster Those are some of my thoughts as well. I want to imagine a duel approach. They are playing ball as best they can with the CDC ever changing bias in regards to the cruise industry but also making sure the are 100% ready when the CSO expires.

Given that this is indeed is all new, I would think they might shorten those cruises or even allow pax to board on the perspective dates like when they had the Covid scare in 2020.

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8 hours ago, johnt83 said:

I hope things are back to normal by November 1st. Any chance of the CSO being extended past Nov 1st? Or is that just crazy talk? We are talking about the CDC here...

image.thumb.png.e1e22e7ede6a2ba70b5c657fc7bac39c.png

In my case it's just pure speculation, so I guess you can call it crazy talk. Certainly no hard evidence at this point. 

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As of now, Adventure of the Seas sailings from Nassau go through mid-September and Vision through August. I think Royal is waiting to see when cruises will restart from US. If they do not restart until the earliest November (hopefully it is sooner!), I think they will extend Adventure and Vision through the fall even if it is hurricane season. This also depends on how successful these summer sailing are.

I am not booking any cruises from the US this year until it is definite that they are restarting.

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