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ODDS OF JULY SAILINGS


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Not happening at this point from any U.S. ports. The July sailing from Cape Liberty, the checkin process is closed. I called RCG and was told there will be an announcement in a couple of days. No other info was given and when asked about any issues, was told that was the response they were told to give. This should be good.

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The CDC is stuck on seeing the threat of SARS2 and COVID a certain way. None of them are without rationale. You can either agree or disagree with them - that's because the science upon which the CDC bases it's public health recommendations is murky, inconclusive or there isn't enough data for absolute answers. The CDC provides recommendations based on the worst case and in an abundance of caution.

I don't think the CDC will rescind the CSO/NSO on their own. Either Congress will pass legislation limiting what the CDC has the power to do in a public health emergency - what both pieces of legislation on this matter before Congress now involve - or the Federal Courts will rule that the CSO/NSO is unlawful in the FL suit.. 

As we know, the state of FL has filed a motion with the Federal Court of Middle FL to expedite a hearing on the complaint they filed there a few weeks ago. TBH, I think a favorable ruling by the Federal court with jurisdiction over the complaint, is the most likely thing to get cruises started again by July (4th is the symbolic date). But time is running short and now we have 100s of Indian crew members who will not be allowed to go back to work. That could pose problems for RCG restarting even nominally. 

Some of our posters undoubtedly have legal training. Most of us have read the 5 parts of the complaint. They all make sense as far as I understand the challenges to the CSO based on the existing authority of the CDC in a public health emergency and maritime law. The relief that the state of FL is seeking is to allow cruise ships to operate from FL's ports.

But time is running out. July 1st (or 4th) sail dates will require 60d of preparation and crew training. That has to start in the first week of May. That means the Federal Judge hearing FL's complaint will have to hear both sides and rule sometime this coming week if it turns out that this process is the one that will get us sailing again in July.    

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I have a July 17th cruise out of Miami planned. It has been a roller coaster of emotions watching all the posturing the last 2 months. In March, I would have went with 80/20 chance my cruise would happen. 80%chance I would be sipping something fresh and fruity from the deck. I thought surely with the great success and rate of vaccinations that cruises would resume in June. 
 

however, I have seen no indication that the CDC will cede any ground on this matter now and as stated above, the CDC will have to be forced to end the no sail order before Oct 31. Even then I could see the cdc and administration appealing that decision and dragging out resolution past the summer cruise season 

today, my hope has flipped to 20/80 that cruises will resume in July. At this point I would rather Royal announce any new cancellations sooner rather than later. I know from a business perspective that Royal wants to restart by July but it’s an uphill battle with the CDC

It took the CDC a year now to admit that masking outdoors in not necessary because the chance of catching Covid outside is very negligible. You will see the CDC announce this week on this matter. Fauci called it common sense today that chance to  contract Covid outside is very low and wearing masks outside are not necessary 

I bring this up because if the CDC comes out and says outdoor masking is not needed and even more so if vaccinated, Royal will drop any outdoor mask wearing rules because Royal can’t say the CDC is behind the data and then be not being current as well 

to wrap this up, I am not optimistic at this point that cruising will resume in July from US ports. I think August is more feasible if the legal process is what makes the CDC drop the no sail order. We are heading into May next week and it will be extremely difficult at this point for Royal to resume by July unless something big happens this week. 
 

however, if the case is heard by a judge and they side with the CDC, I think we won’t see cruising until after Oct 31. 

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If it's any consolation, when a Federal judge grants an injunction - essentially what the state of FL is seeking - it goes into affect when the judge says it does. FL has asked for immediate cancellation of the CSO/NSO. The US Justice department can appeal a favorable ruling for FL but the CSO/NSO will get cancelled and cruising will restart from FL ports while the appeal is processed. A successful appeal, which the judge can hear quickly or not, would return FL ports re cruise ships to the status quo ante

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18 minutes ago, JeffB said:

If it's any consolation, when a Federal judge grants an injunction - essentially what the state of FL is seeking - it goes into affect when the judge says it does. FL has asked for immediate cancellation of the CSO/NSO. The US Justice department can appeal a favorable ruling for FL but the CSO/NSO will get cancelled and cruising will restart from FL ports while the appeal is processed. A successful appeal, which the judge can hear quickly or not, would return FL ports re cruise ships to the status quo ante

Thank you for the clarification 

it will be interesting to see how the motion goes and what if any urgency the federal court/judge will give to this motion. 
 

if I break out the ole Tin foil head gear, I could see this being put before a conservative judge and them making a favorable ruling which would give some cover for the CDC with the politics and optics with current administration. Federal judge/courts can be blamed if worst case scenario happens with restart. 
 

But at this point it’s anyone’s guess!!!

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Unfortunately I don't see it happening... and this is why people are booking cruises outside of the US now... me included... my first US sailing isn't until December so I hope the CDC gets their stuff together by November... this could go on forever from the US really... there has been chatter about whether cruises will ever be sailing from the US again...

The CDC doesn't stand for Center for Disease Control, it stands for Completely Destroying Cruising.

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If left to the wisdom of the CDC 0% chance of cruises leaving from US ports in July.

As noted above the only path is the Florida lawsuit and even that has to get a favorable result very soon if there is going to be enough time for the cruises to get staffed up and ready to go in July.

At this point I am so glad I booked Adventure in June, I think maybe 10% chance of Navigator in July sailing ... not even feeling good about Harmony in November at this point either.

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I still believe cruising will not begin until September (if I remember correctly there was another topic regarding this where we all made our guesses).  I truly hope for this timeframe (of course the earlier the better) since so many of us have cruises booked for the latter part of the year!  But July seems, sadly, almost a sure NoGo...and August as well. ??

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10 hours ago, JeffB said:

The CDC is stuck on seeing the threat of SARS2 and COVID a certain way. None of them are without rationale. You can either agree or disagree with them - that's because the science upon which the CDC bases it's public health recommendations is murky, inconclusive or there isn't enough data for absolute answers. The CDC provides recommendations based on the worst case and in an abundance of caution.

I don't think the CDC will rescind the CSO/NSO on their own. Either Congress will pass legislation limiting what the CDC has the power to do in a public health emergency - what both pieces of legislation on this matter before Congress now involve - or the Federal Courts will rule that the CSO/NSO is unlawful in the FL suit.. 

As we know, the state of FL has filed a motion with the Federal Court of Middle FL to expedite a hearing on the complaint they filed there a few weeks ago. TBH, I think a favorable ruling by the Federal court with jurisdiction over the complaint, is the most likely thing to get cruises started again by July (4th is the symbolic date). But time is running short and now we have 100s of Indian crew members who will not be allowed to go back to work. That could pose problems for RCG restarting even nominally. 

Some of our posters undoubtedly have legal training. Most of us have read the 5 parts of the complaint. They all make sense as far as I understand the challenges to the CSO based on the existing authority of the CDC in a public health emergency and maritime law. The relief that the state of FL is seeking is to allow cruise ships to operate from FL's ports.

But time is running out. July 1st (or 4th) sail dates will require 60d of preparation and crew training. That has to start in the first week of May. That means the Federal Judge hearing FL's complaint will have to hear both sides and rule sometime this coming week if it turns out that this process is the one that will get us sailing again in July.    

Thank you for this well written and thought out post!  

Every time I think about the CDC my blood boils, but that's for a different day.  

One thing I'd like to point out though.  While I think it is unlikely that the CDC will rescind the CSO without being forced, there is another way it can go away. 

The public health emergency was issued on a temporary basis and extended every 90 days or so.  I haven't been able to find the current expiration date, but it was just re-issued this month, so it is probably in mid July.  If it expires, the the CSO goes away too.  How likely is this? Who knows? I'm not an oddsmaker, but I think this is what Richard Fain is hanging his hat on when he says that he's never been more optimistic that we'll be sailing in July.

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11 hours ago, Tarheel0907 said:

What is everyone thinking? Seems like every week the CDC eases off some of the things keeping cruising at port. I think they will adapt what nassau did, if  you are vaccinated you dont need a test to get on board, if your arent you need a test, seems fair to me.

We do know the lines are starting to sail from non-US embarkation ports in June.  So 100% from non-US starting points.   More lines will be starting operations, and existing operators will need to expand operations (overseas) if USG control continues.  I'll guess a 50% probability of a US port restart based upon some unconfirmed observations of crews moving into in Florida hotels.  Guessing 80% probability for Nov '21.  If EU is truly opening to vaccinated US citizens, I would expect a surge in European starts if they're including cruising in offerings to vaccinated Americans.  (Unsure if there will be more vaccinated Americans than EU general population as summer roles around.)

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2 hours ago, steverk said:

The public health emergency was issued on a temporary basis and extended every 90 days or so.  I haven't been able to find the current expiration date, but it was just re-issued this month, so it is probably in mid July.  If it expires, the the CSO goes away too.  How likely is this? Who knows? I'm not an oddsmaker, but I think this is what Richard Fain is hanging his hat on when he says that he's never been more optimistic that we'll be sailing in July.

This is a good forward looking point. For the here and now I would prefer an expeditious ruling on FL's suit by the federal judge hearing the case by the end of this week. If we go past that time frame, the likelihood of sailings resuming from US ports in July dims considerably.  It's then that we'd have to rely on Congress getting one of the bills going or HHS canceling the PHE. That implies an August restart at the earliest and more like a September restart if the PHE expires sometime in July. 

WRT the Public Health emergency Declaration, when I started watching this late last year, The Secretary of HHS renews it on a 90d rolling basis. I've not seen a date certain for those renewals in the last two iterations. The PHE is issued under Section 319 of the Public Health Services (PHS) Act. The HHS Secretary can issue a PHE when he determines that an infectious disease or bioterrorism attack endangers the public's health. I've read that section and there is no specific definition of what constitutes a PHE or limits on the time frames or authority of the HHS Secretary. https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phe-qa.aspx#:~:text=Under section 319 of the,%2C or 2) a PHE%2C

This is one of the complaints in the FL suit that alleges that only Congress has the authority to suspend commerce in US ports, the net effect of the NSO/CSO. That is also behind the two bills that have been introduced to try to return the cruise ship industry to operations from US ports. 

I'm not a lawyer but the arguments in the 5 articles in the FL complaint seem to me to be very strong. I mentioned early on within this blog that I suspected the extended time frame for the judge hearing this complaint could indicate that he is trying to get the parties to agree to a settlement rather than hear the case, rule for the state of FL and embarrass the Biden administrations and specifically CDC/HHS. Normally, this issue would not be present but obviously, a return to cruising is a political hot potato - we know this because one Senator was able to object to one of the Bills and hold up the entire thing. That's unfortunate because the grounds for it - jobs - was pretty on-point. 

So, we wait. 

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28 minutes ago, JeffB said:

This is a good forward looking point. For the here and now I would prefer an expeditious ruling on FL's suit by the federal judge hearing the case by the end of this week. If we go past that time frame, the likelihood of sailings resuming from US ports in July dims considerably.  It's then that we'd have to rely on Congress getting one of the bills going or HHS canceling the PHE. That implies an August restart at the earliest and more like a September restart if the PHE expires sometime in July. 

WRT the Public Health emergency Declaration, when I started watching this late last year, The Secretary of HHS renews it on a 90d rolling basis. I've not seen a date certain for those renewals in the last two iterations. The PHE is issued under Section 319 of the Public Health Services (PHS) Act. The HHS Secretary can issue a PHE when he determines that an infectious disease or bioterrorism attack endangers the public's health. I've read that section and there is no specific definition of what constitutes a PHE or limits on the time frames or authority of the HHS Secretary. https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phe-qa.aspx#:~:text=Under section 319 of the,%2C or 2) a PHE%2C

This is one of the complaints in the FL suit that alleges that only Congress has the authority to suspend commerce in US ports, the net effect of the NSO/CSO. That is also behind the two bills that have been introduced to try to return the cruise ship industry to operations from US ports. 

I'm not a lawyer but the arguments in the 5 articles in the FL complaint seem to me to be very strong. I mentioned early on within this blog that I suspected the extended time frame for the judge hearing this complaint could indicate that he is trying to get the parties to agree to a settlement rather than hear the case, rule for the state of FL and embarrass the Biden administrations and specifically CDC/HHS. Normally, this issue would not be present but obviously, a return to cruising is a political hot potato - we know this because one Senator was able to object to one of the Bills and hold up the entire thing. That's unfortunate because the grounds for it - jobs - was pretty on-point. 

So, we wait. 

IN another thread, it is stated that the hearing is now scheduled for May 12. As mentioned by others, I dont see how July cruises would happen given a May 12 hearing even with a favorable ruling unless Royal is being proactive and optimistic and gearing up for July cruises from US ports but from a business perspective that is a big risk unless Royal is privy to some inside info that would lead them to believe the May 12 hearing will go their way. 

 

 

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Man, that's cutting it close but possible for a July restart if the Judge issues an injunction. I have several friends who are lawyers that litigate claims filed in the federal courts. There is all kinds of pre-hearing back room dealing - most of it by phone. The Judge directly, or more likely his clerks do the leg work. 

TBH, this is pretty much a deal or no deal, black and white issue. I'm not sure there is middle ground that the parties could agree on but one never knows. I think there is some hard-ball being played by the FL Attorney General....... "fine you don't want to do this with some cover or plausible denial? We'll see you in court then. It's going to be public and ugly."

Remember Desantis is not a fan of the Biden administration and would love to kick a part of it to the curb. 

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A restart is coming but with every passing day July is looking less and less likely.  I'm not confident all August cruises will sail so I've booked Mariner and Navigator for these months hoping if a restart does happen it may start with these ships doing short Bahamas cruises.  Even then, these cruises are "on the bubble" IMO.  

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Not good. 

Right now it seems like everyone's at a stalemate and I don't see it resolving till sometime this summer, pushing cruising from the US out till fall.  Beginning of the year I thought @monctonguy was pessimistic and we'd be sailing by early summer.  Now...I'll just be happy that there are options for later this year.

I've got some shorter sailings booked in August/September/October that I'm likely going to cancel this weekend just to get them out of the cruise planner.  Focus my attention on the Adventure / Grandeur sailings and ditch the rest.  If the EU is going to open to vaccinated US travelers I might take the opportunity and hit up a few places I've been wanting to visit there... hopefully less crowds than normal.

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20 hours ago, Tarheel0907 said:

What is everyone thinking? Seems like every week the CDC eases off some of the things keeping cruising at port. I think they will adapt what nassau did, if  you are vaccinated you dont need a test to get on board, if your arent you need a test, seems fair to me.

Even if the CDC gave them the go ahead, they would need to sail at reduced capacity.  So, whatever month they start sailing, they will cancel that months sailings and put new sailings out for purchase.

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8 minutes ago, mjb1127 said:

Even if the CDC gave them the go ahead, they would need to sail at reduced capacity.  So, whatever month they start sailing, they will cancel that months sailings and put new sailings out for purchase.

I know they've done that in Europe, but I'm not sure that approach would work well with an American audience.

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A difference in Europe with the summer 2021 sailings are the completely different nature of the itinerary.  

For the purpose of this thread and cruises from the US they can't do cruises to nowhere or domestic only cruises.  If ships sail in the US it will be to somewhere.  

I don't think they'll cancel US cruises and try to resell them on short notice.  That never works well.  I think very few of the July/August sail dates are 100% sold out or at capacity now so they they aren't starting with a full ship.  Some will cancel or use CWC if they sail, some have already CWC'd their cruises.  Worst case finds them needing to trim some bookings but I suspect a lot of that will be done naturally.  

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9 hours ago, twangster said:

if a restart does happen it may start with these ships doing short Bahamas cruises

That's what I'm thinking as well.  It's been said all along that the start-up is going to be an ease into cruising.  It isn't like a switch is going to flip  and everyone with a cruise scheduled is going to be able to take that cruise.  There will be redeployment of ships and revised itineraries as things start up.  Not only does Royal have to play nice with the CDC, but they have to play nice with the other countries on the cruise itineraries and meet their requirements to port there which we already know they've done with the Bahamas.  They'll keep the cruises short and not too far from the US to start with.  They'll want to make sure things with their supply chain are running smoothly.  

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9 hours ago, AshleyDillo said:

That's what I'm thinking as well.  It's been said all along that the start-up is going to be an ease into cruising.  It isn't like a switch is going to flip  and everyone with a cruise scheduled is going to be able to take that cruise.  There will be redeployment of ships and revised itineraries as things start up.  Not only does Royal have to play nice with the CDC, but they have to play nice with the other countries on the cruise itineraries and meet their requirements to port there which we already know they've done with the Bahamas.  They'll keep the cruises short and not too far from the US to start with.  They'll want to make sure things with their supply chain are running smoothly.  

I'm starting to wonder if the restart will be more like a fluorescent light bulb.  A few flickers then full brightness.  

The concept of a slow restart with 1 or 2 ships is more than one year old.  With each passing day as the CDC keeps the industry shuttered it's becoming more and more likely that the CDC may create a mass restart pretty close to all at once. 

One could argue the short 3/4 Mariner/Navigator idea has been replaced by all the ships that have sailed plus Adventure and Vision.  With those "restart" cruises complete the flick of the switch may come all at once with the rest of the fleet or as soon as they can crew the ships once the CDC ends it's reign of terror.    

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A part of me thinks the CDC will hold off cruising until well after they need to.  At that point there will be no need for a gradual restart, the crisis will have been over for many months.  

If that scenario plays out the only thing that will hinder a restart will be the logistics of actually getting ships back in operation. 

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11 minutes ago, twangster said:

The concept of a slow restart with 1 or 2 ships is more than one year old.  With each passing day as the CDC keeps the industry shuttered it's becoming more and more likely that the CDC may create a mass restart pretty close to all at once. 

I agree with this and moreover, think it has legs. I don't think it will be 100% of the fleet sailing as in the pre-pandemic period but I can see a stepwise, 25%, 50%, 75% phase in as crew become available, trained and ships and ports are physically readied.

My news feeds today are full of articles talking a major shift in the Biden administration's pandemic approach. The message coming from "unnamed White House Officials ..... not authorized to discuss this," is that President Biden is shifting from what has been characterized as an overly cautious return to pre-pandemic activity to one where there is recognition that people are burned out on restrictions. Reports offer that the President recognizes this is particularly true for those that have pursued vaccination and therefore messaging should be more focused on things vaccinated people can do as the nation returns to a post pandemic normalcy.

A lot of us have been calling for this shift in messaging from the COVID boogey man approach, such messaging intended to keep the masses from being to cavalier about the virus, to here's how to get back to normalcy safely and, oh, by-the-way, if you get vaccinated you can do MORE! It's the right message and one I've been advocating for since mid-March when it became blindingly obvious that the vaccines worked better than expected.

So, what could happen? Clearly, the cruise lines are in the get ready to go mode. What amounts to testing of safety protocols has been on-going for months outside the US and the data from this testing is very encouraging. Chatter about the love-fest between the cruise lines and the CDC is noteworthy. Crew movement is obvious.  It is unmistakable that RCG is shifting it's itineraries from the 3-5d range to 7-8d range. While popular, shorter cruises are less profitable unless there's tons of volume. My sense is that cruisers are less interested in 3-5d itineraries right now when the longer ones are already appearing on offer. I would also bet that of the RCL and Celebrity cruises on the books for July, there's more than a few B2B bookings. If one is going to fly to Europe, shorter cruises are less appealing than longer ones.

So, yeah, I like the fluorescent light bulb analogy. There's pressure from multiple directions on the Biden administration to start easing restrictions and talking up a return to a post pandemic normalcy. I think the FL lawsuit is a factor. It's not a major player but could Justice Department staffers be telling White House staffers that it is likely FL will prevail in it's law suit and the CDC and HHS are going to look bad if they do? I think that is entirely possible and the President, who often doesn't get the nitty-gritty but rather has it filtered, is getting the picture on the downsides of this CSO/NSO nonsense as it pertains to jobs and a troubled cruise line industry struggling because of heavy handed US government policy.

Good news today.   

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46 minutes ago, twangster said:

The concept of a slow restart with 1 or 2 ships is more than one year old.  With each passing day as the CDC keeps the industry shuttered it's becoming more and more likely that the CDC may create a mass restart pretty close to all at once. 

I was just looking over the itineraries for the 7-day sailings and outside of St. Maarten, Cozumel, and the Bahamas I haven't really seen much about the other ports and how they would be able to jump into action to get up and running.  Puerto Rico is a US territory and St. Thomas shouldn't be an issue since it is a US Virgin Island and I think is under the CDC jurisdiction as well?  I haven't heard much from Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic or Honduras. 

I'm sure they are all anxious to get tourism going again, but they all have different entry requirements so juggling that for each cruise itinerary would take a little bit of a time to coordinate. 

I know things will constantly be changing and it's almost a figure it out as you go situation (similar to what we are seeing with the changes for the Adventure sailings) but I know there's a lot going on behind the scenes and lots of dots that have to be connected to get started.  I'm sure Royal is working on a lot of that behind the scenes that we don't see or hear about, but I still feel there's going to be a lot of disappointed folks who think as soon as the CDC says OK everything will magically be smooth sailing.  

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27 minutes ago, JeffB said:

I agree with this and moreover, think it has legs. I don't think it will be 100% of the fleet sailing as in the pre-pandemic period but I can see a stepwise, 25%, 50%, 75% phase in as crew become available, trained and ships and ports are physically readied.

My news feeds today are full of articles talking a major shift in the Biden administration's pandemic approach. The message coming from "unnamed White House Officials ..... not authorized to discuss this," is that President Biden is shifting from what has been characterized as an overly cautious return to pre-pandemic activity to one where there is recognition that people are burned out on restrictions. Reports offer that the President recognizes this is particularly true for those that have pursued vaccination and therefore messaging should be more focused on things vaccinated people can do as the nation returns to a post pandemic normalcy.

A lot of us have been calling for this shift in messaging from the COVID boogey man approach, such messaging intended to keep the masses from being to cavalier about the virus, to here's how to get back to normalcy safely and, oh, by-the-way, if you get vaccinated you can do MORE! It's the right message and one I've been advocating for since mid-March when it became blindingly obvious that the vaccines worked better than expected.

So, what could happen? Clearly, the cruise lines are in the get ready to go mode. What amounts to testing of safety protocols has been on-going for months outside the US and the data from this testing is very encouraging. Chatter about the love-fest between the cruise lines and the CDC is noteworthy. Crew movement is obvious.  It is unmistakable that RCG is shifting it's itineraries from the 3-5d range to 7-8d range. While popular, shorter cruises are less profitable unless there's tons of volume. My sense is that cruisers are less interested in 3-5d itineraries right now when the longer ones are already appearing on offer. I would also bet that of the RCL and Celebrity cruises on the books for July, there's more than a few B2B bookings. If one is going to fly to Europe, shorter cruises are less appealing than longer ones.

So, yeah, I like the fluorescent light bulb analogy. There's pressure from multiple directions on the Biden administration to start easing restrictions and talking up a return to a post pandemic normalcy. I think the FL lawsuit is a factor. It's not a major player but could Justice Department staffers be telling White House staffers that it is likely FL will prevail in it's law suit and the CDC and HHS are going to look bad if they do? I think that is entirely possible and the President, who often doesn't get the nitty-gritty but rather has it filtered, is getting the picture on the downsides of this CSO/NSO nonsense as it pertains to jobs and a troubled cruise line industry struggling because of heavy handed US government policy.

Good news today.   

I hope you are right with the shift in messaging because the current messaging combined with the botched handling of the J&J hold and then restart is adding to vaccine hesitancy among those who are already on the fence about getting vaccinated. The administration cant complain about the unvaccinated while sending out mixed messaging on vaccine efficacy. Outdoor masking recommendations will be dropped soon as they should have been a year ago....but i digress. 

From a political standpoint, maybe the tone on Covid messaging will shift as well because of Bidens approval ratings that were released this week. 

Either way, I hope we see some movement before the date of the hearing in May. 

I will stay cautiously optimistic that many factors will move the needle but realize its a Herculean Task to get the CDC to back down at this point

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22 hours ago, PG Cruiser said:

In the words of Han Solo, "Never tell me the odds"

However, in the words on Effie Trinket, "May the odds forever be in your favor"

This Han Solo quote might be more on point right now................"I've got a bad feeling about this."

 

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I would say based on all the new findings, that September is looking like the best bet. Although I do not put anything pass the CDC, I cannot see waiting until the CSO expire as a viable start date. Especially if those cruises from the Bahamas go well. No other US business has been without some sort of revenue for over a year. With people traveling and having the option to travel to Europe, they will start to feel that missing revenue. They are literally having concerts, some that are even used to promote vaccinations, sporting events with full or almost full capacity. If people have the option for those activities, why not cruising. I'm not just saying this because I have an Oct 31st allure sailing that I really want to happen

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

I'm starting to wonder if the restart will be more like a fluorescent light bulb.  A few flickers then full brightness.  

The concept of a slow restart with 1 or 2 ships is more than one year old.  With each passing day as the CDC keeps the industry shuttered it's becoming more and more likely that the CDC may create a mass restart pretty close to all at once. 

One could argue the short 3/4 Mariner/Navigator idea has been replaced by all the ships that have sailed plus Adventure and Vision.  With those "restart" cruises complete the flick of the switch may come all at once with the rest of the fleet or as soon as they can crew the ships once the CDC ends it's reign of terror.    

I think at this point cruises only resume in the US when the whole CDC/COSO thing is just blown on out of the water. At that stage it makes no sense to ease into it, you might as well go full bore on all ships at once .. especially since you will have an entire world full of vaccinated people waiting to get on the ships both to work and to vacation so why limit your capacity.

I think the whole gradual startup was conceived when we were talking about July of 2020 when people wouldn't be vaccinated yet and it would be hard to convince large numbers of people to come out, safe guard lots of crews, etc. and they wanted to take the time to "learn to be careful". None of that is going to be relevant at this rate.

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52 minutes ago, jticarruthers said:

I think the whole gradual startup was conceived when we were talking about July of 2020 when people wouldn't be vaccinated yet and it would be hard to convince large numbers of people to come out, safe guard lots of crews, etc. and they wanted to take the time to "learn to be careful". None of that is going to be relevant at this rate.

But there still may be a need for a gradual startup just due to international staffing delays.

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I have emailed the CDC twice and both times I received the standard response that can be seen on their website. I sent the following email to them, and surprise, I did not get a response back. In my believe, the CDC will keep tight on this as long as they can.  My response is in bold. 

 

Passengers who plan to travel by cruise ship should contact their cruise line companies directly for further information concerning their itineraries. (Didn't ask about that)

CDC has issued a Level 4 Travel Health Notice with a clear recommendation to avoid all cruise travel due to ongoing spread of COVID-19 and the increased risk of person-to-person spread of infectious diseases on cruise ships. (There is no ongoing spread. That is a statement from Oct 2020, the rate is now decreasing)

 

The CSO, outlined in Oct 2020, stated what cruise lines needed to do in order to sail again:

*Testing and additional safeguards for crew members.  DONE

*Cruise ship operators have adequate health and safety protections for crew members while they build the laboratory capacity needed to test future passengers. DONE

*Simulated voyages to test cruise operators' ability to mitigate COVID-19 risk. ALREADY PROVEN

The CSO also states that in October 2020 the virus "continues to spread rapidly around the world with no U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized vaccines."   There are now at least vaccines that are working  and more and more people are being vaccinated..in the United States 38% of the population have had a least one dose and almost 25% of the nation is fully vaccinated. Since Jan 8, 2020 the 7 day average of new cases in the United States has DECREASED by an average of 202,295 people and the deaths over the same period have DECREASED an average of 2,002 deaths per 7 days.

The CSO is outdated as is being proven by science and data. It is time to rescind that order and allow Cruise operators to get all of their people back to work.

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14 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Or if the lawsuit has teeth

Lawsuit is entertainment to keep us from getting bored but I'll be surprised if a judge wipes out the CSO.

The lawsuit has a purpose to keep the issue into public awareness and to get the attention of the administration.  It may be the catalyst that moves the administrator to intervene when the judge doesn't act immediately and it turns into a long term court case.

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24 minutes ago, twangster said:

I think either the administration steps in and directs the CDC to get real or cruising remains locked down until Nov. 1.

I think it's that simple. 

I agree. It really is going to take the administration jumping in and kicking the CDC into allowing cruises to re-start. I really hope that the lock down does not continue till Nov. 1. That would bean another booked cruise to reschedule. 

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