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Fully Vaccinated Cruise = No Kids


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Let's be clear. The WHO is an organization with deep roots in policy recommendations and guidance that place equity and justice at the forefront. I'm not advancing the notion that is a bad thing. In some cases it is completely appropriate and under-recognized. TBF, developing policy that is both pragmatic and at the same time advances equity and justice is a very tough job.

Here's the key statement in the linked document:

  1. Do not require proof of vaccination as a condition of entry, given the limited (although growing) evidence about the performance of vaccines in reducing transmission and the persistent inequity in the global vaccine distribution. States Parties are strongly encouraged to acknowledge the potential for requirements of proof of vaccination to deepen inequities and promote differential freedom of movement.

 Earlier in the document, the WHO acknowledges the impact of vaccines in reducing COVID related deaths and illness as well as reducing the Transmission of SARS2. They correctly call for relying on the emerging science. They go on to say there's not enough evidence yet to definitively conclude that vaccines are as good as they seem to be. What?

This is the problem with the WHO. The last statement in the quoted text demonstrates that deepening inequities and differential freedom of movement are more important than improving global public health. IMO, it is blindingly obvious that requiring vaccines for entrée to specific venues (e.g., large gatherings to watch sports, airline travel, sailing aboard  cruise ships) will decrease both disease burden and transmission. Don't require these because it is unfair? The Israeli's have it right ...... "you will be left behind if you don't get vaccinated." That is being pragmatic. The WHO isn't being pragmatic.    

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40 minutes ago, JeffB said:

IMO, it is blindingly obvious that requiring vaccines for entrée to specific venues (e.g., large gatherings to watch sports, airline travel, sailing aboard  cruise ships) will decrease both disease burden and transmission. Don't require these because it is unfair?

Context of that statement I believe was in regard to "Health measures in relation to international traffic".

In the statement I'd say the meaning on entry was referring to entering a country. Don't think it was implying entry to venues.

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This is a great resume about vaccinations and sailings but did you know in Europe and Asia cruise lines have been sailing with unvaccinated guests for many months now?

Yes.

Let me be clear. The science favors multi-layered protocols for risk reduction. One of them is to require circulating virus be controlled in the locale from which a cruise ship is boarding passengers and crew then sailing. The metric by which this is assured varies but Singapore, for example, the last I checked has no deaths and no circulating virus as evidenced by new cases. There are other layers that have been discussed here. Requiring vaccinations is one the cruise industry has adopted when sailing into or from ports that aren't like Singapore or Haifa or Taipei, e.g., Nassau, St. Martin and other Caribbean ports. 

Why aren't we sailing from US ports yet? Well, the CDC's unworkable CSO and foot dragging is one of them. Another, however, and one that public health officials worried about SRAS2 transmission should consider before getting behind cruise ship operations from their ports, is the level of circulating virus present in and around them. Broward County, home of Port Everglades, and Miami-Dade County, home of the port of Miami, both have evidence of circulating virus (% positivity 6-8%. Generally accepted to be adequate virus control is demonstrated when new case % positivity is below 5% for 7 consecutive days). 

Now, given that reality, would you rather sail on a cruise ship out of either of those ports where everyone is vaccinated as an alternative risk reduction measure to insuring there is no circulating virus in both counties? In the US and globally, we will continue to see low levels of circulating virus for the foreseeable future. It might be close to 5% or approaching it but if it isn't there does that mean we shouldn't travel there?   I know how I'd answer both these questions.

Here's another tid-bit. Just last week the CDC produced a report that appeared on their web site that trumpeted new government data showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted COVID. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting COVID are about one in 11,000. The chances of a getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote. But what trumpeting news like that does do is to discourage vaccination - exactly what the Biden administration is working hard to avoid.

Vaccines are the best alternative that will allow a return to normalcy as a means of approaching and then achieving herd immunity in the US. A fully vaccinated boat-load of crew and passengers HAS herd immunity and an exceedingly small risk of anyone aboard becoming re-infected either aboard or ashore in a port of call or getting seriously ill from COVID even lower risk.

Here's a link to a cool model based on available data sets. The interactive graphs at the link are titled "A Path to Normality." The US approaches the stage when all mitigation measures can or should be removed in May and achieves it in June.

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

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Well, yes and this negative Nancy messaging needs to stop. The example I gave of the CDC's announcement on reinfections properly condenses to the message that you have a 1 in 11000 chance of getting COVID once vaccinated. This is a hugely important one. It gets missed by the CDC and I think that is reflective of what's wrong there.

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I moved the link that appears at the end of this post to here. It was in the Bahamas thread. We've had a spirited discussion here about vaccines in general so, I wanted to comment on the CDC's announcement and my take-aways.

The CDC has conducted a study on what it calls "breakthrough infections." These are infections that occur after a person has been vaccinated. The study results are below. Since the study and starting now, the CDC will only report break through infections that result in hospitalizations or death. There's a good reason for that. If you look at the study numbers that considered all breakthrough infections reported by states, that it happens at all is rare. When it does happen, the numbers are miniscule:

Breakthrough.PNG.42222763acefa1d0c4015644499fe338.PNG

The CDC goes on to recommend this:

  • Vaccine breakthrough cases occur in only a small percentage of vaccinated persons. To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in the case demographics or vaccine characteristics among people with reported vaccine breakthrough infections.
  • COVID-19 vaccines are effective. CDC recommends that all eligible people get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as one is available to them.

This is good news. 93% of breakthrough infections did not result in hospitalizations. Only 1% resulted in death and of that 1% (88) 11 of those deaths were caused by other factors even though that patient had COVID. IOW, less than 1% of breakthrough infections resulted in death attributed to COVID.

If that is the case in the general population where about 50% of Americans mask and/or distance, how can a cruise ship environment be unsafe in terms of being spreaders of infectious disease when everyone sailing will be vaccinated and I suspect masked in any setting where physical distancing might be compromised? Keep following this line of thought. 

The good news about breakthrough infections should be followed by specific steps that Americans can take to resume normal activity if they are vaccinated don't ya think? But .....noooooooo. Then they go on to recommend this non-sensical low risk, out of an abundance of caution advice:

  • CDC recommends that fully vaccinated people continue tp take steps to protect themselves and others in many situations, like wearing a mask, maintaining an appropriate social distance from others, avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated spaces, and washing their hands often.

One other unsubstantiated boogey man the CDC reports and shouldn't becasue there's no data to support the allegation is that the numbers reported are probably undercounts. Really? Shut the door. No proof of that at all!

IOW, you still need to be scared of COVID.

I want to scream ....... "masks in many situations"? Does the CDC mean outdoors, indoors, gyms, bars, baseball stadiums, cruise ships? Where? Wash your hands? Generally a good idea but in the case of SARS2, which is what we're talking about here, your hands are not fomites that facilitate transmission of this bug. 

OK, look, it's America right? We can look at the data and make good choices, do our own risk analysis and determine what we are comfortable with, right? That would work except we have the CDC making policy, shutting down the cruise industry while state governments, some of them, continue to mandate all sorts of behaviors for residents and businesses. Over-reach. Big time! 

Anyway, stepping off my soap box. This is really good news and should have a significant impact on what we all want to have happen: start cruising from US ports again.

https://www.cdc.v/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/8/2021 at 6:10 PM, tonyfsu21 said:

will certainly take the family out of family vacation. 

True! I started cruising when I was young and continued after having children, my son and daughter love it so much. Cruising is our favorite type of vacation as it has something for everyone! 

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We are not going on our July 1 trip even in the small likelihood it sails. As parents, we are vaccinated. But my children are not yet due to age. Even if they could go, I'd feel uncomfortable what people might do or say knowing they are the apart of the unvaccinated 5% If some one gets sick and the cruise ends, they'll probably blame kids. These are very tense times for those on both sides of the vaccine spectrum.

Then on top of that, I feel bad going to foreign islands with thousands of other American tourists possibly spreading illnesses.  

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39 minutes ago, Matt V said:

We are not going on our July 1 trip even in the small likelihood it sails. As parents, we are vaccinated. But my children are not yet due to age. Even if they could go, I'd feel uncomfortable what people might do or say knowing they are the apart of the unvaccinated 5% If some one gets sick and the cruise ends, they'll probably blame kids. These are very tense times for those on both sides of the vaccine spectrum.

Then on top of that, I feel bad going to foreign islands with thousands of other American tourists possibly spreading illnesses.  

Royal has had some cases onboard even before there was a vaccine. It did not bring most cruises to a halt, only early on. Also, chance of children catching or spreading in a fully vaccinated crowd is so unlikely. Now people’s very unrealistic fear of unvaccinated children is another story and you bring up a great point to consider.

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