Jump to content

Another Cancellation Round Forthcoming??


Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

The US administered over 4 million doses this past Friday or Saturday so it is conceivable that by June or July anyone who wants a shot can get a shot.  

 

The problem with NCL's plan is there are still quite a few details missing.  What I've learned just from the 2 or 3 months I've been a member on this site is it takes time to get ships ready to once again accept passengers.   I'm no expert in the cruise industry, but in the airline industry the longer an airplane sits on the ground in storage the longer it takes to get ready to fly again.  Some of these airplanes that have been grounded since last March it is taking 5-9 weeks to get those planes ready to fly again.  In the cruise industry I imagine NCL would need a response back from the CDC by the end of this month if they are serious about restarting cruises on July 4th.   I don't see the CDC responding to NCL's request by May.

Cruise ships have been kept in warm storage though.  It wouldn't take long for the ships to be ready. The issue is crewing the ship and getting supply lines flowing again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

The US administered over 4 million doses this past Friday or Saturday so it is conceivable that by June or July anyone who wants a shot can get a shot.  

 

The problem with NCL's plan is there are still quite a few details missing.  What I've learned just from the 2 or 3 months I've been a member on this site is it takes time to get ships ready to once again accept passengers.   I'm no expert in the cruise industry, but in the airline industry the longer an airplane sits on the ground in storage the longer it takes to get ready to fly again.  Some of these airplanes that have been grounded since last March it is taking 5-9 weeks to get those planes ready to fly again.  In the cruise industry I imagine NCL would need a response back from the CDC by the end of this month if they are serious about restarting cruises on July 4th.   I don't see the CDC responding to NCL's request by May.

It's hard to draw comparisons between airplanes and ships.  Ships are sailing now, their mechanicals are working.  Airplanes are a completely different beast mechanically.   It's not like they took a ship out of the water and left it for 3 months.

In the case of cruise ships it's crew that's the long pole in the tent.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IF and its a big IF at this point the CDC goes along with NCL plan, I would be upset if I had a large family with multiple children under 16 and had made a reservation only to have it cancelled because of the proposed vaccination rules. 

I would be hard pressed to want to rebook a cruise with NCL at that point. 

Looking at the data we have now, small children are not a high risk group nor are they major vectors of spreading the virus.

I like what Royal is doing better with their restarts in the Caribbean 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

IF and its a big IF at this point the CDC goes along with NCL plan, I would be upset if I had a large family with multiple children under 16 and had made a reservation only to have it cancelled because of the proposed vaccination rules. 

I would be hard pressed to want to rebook a cruise with NCL at that point. 

Looking at the data we have now, small children are not a high risk group nor are they major vectors of spreading the virus.

I like what Royal is doing better with their restarts in the Caribbean 

 

Would you be any happier that it was just outright cancelled because there are no cruises running?

I think NCL is looking at it as "We can sail vaccinated only or not at all".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, jticarruthers said:

Would you be any happier that it was just outright cancelled because there are no cruises running?

I think NCL is looking at it as "We can sail vaccinated only or not at all".

I get it. They are bleeding cash and need to get up and running. I just think its a short sighted plan.

Again, as NCL pointed toward data in their petition to the CDC they could have pointed to the data on small children and risk and spread as well. They could have copied Royal plan for those under 16. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

I get it. They are bleeding cash and need to get up and running. I just think its a short sighted plan.

Again, as NCL pointed toward data in their petition to the CDC they could have pointed to the data on small children and risk and spread as well. They could have copied Royal plan for those under 16. 

Given the CDC’s lack of common sense, NCL decided to play to the CDC’s own guidance that vaccinated people can gather with very little risk. They decided not to muddy the waters by including children under vaccination age.

I agree with your point about the data showing children are low risk but common sense has no place at the CDC’s table. I believe that is the reason NCL is taking the black and white approach.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, twangster said:

It's hard to draw comparisons between airplanes and ships.  Ships are sailing now, their mechanicals are working.  Airplanes are a completely different beast mechanically.   It's not like they took a ship out of the water and left it for 3 months.

In the case of cruise ships it's crew that's the long pole in the tent.  

But the question no is asking is this, has Royal Caribbean, NCL, or Carnival been able to acquire their own personal stock pile of vaccines or are they partially or totally dependent on crew members getting vaccinated on their own in their own countries?

We are focusing so much attention on the US which is doing a great job rolling out the vaccines, but if we look at the EU and other nations around the world they are clearly struggling in their rollout.  Some countries are just now receiving their first shipment of vaccines.  Also again working in the airline industry I know the CDC and WHO do not recognize Sputnik V and CoronaVac (China's vaccine) as a valid because they did not through all the proper steps during their trail phase. So take for example Iceland (and ther are other countries) which is open no quarantine necessary if you are fully vaccinated.  But they will only accept your vaccination card if the vaccines on the card is a vaccine that has been approved as being valid by the WHO.  We don't have to worry about that here in the US for obvious reasons.  However both Russia and China have started shipping their vaccines around the world because it is difficult for some countries to get Pfizer, or J&J and they would rather take Sputnik V or CoronaVac instead of waiting for Pfizer to have availability.  Another question is this will the CDC allow accept Sputnik V as a valid vaccine for crew members? Now this isn't to say at some point in the future these vaccines will be accepted and prove themselves to be just as effective as for example Pfizer but for now they are not recognized valid vaccines and US airlines can not accept them if a country requires the airline to check for either a negative COVID test or a valid vaccine card.

If crew is the long pole in the tent what does that make the vaccines especially if Royal does not have its own CDC or WHO approved stock pile it can administer to crew members who are not Americans? We are all focusing on America but as we all know crew members come from all over the world. 

When I did the comparision it wasn't meant to be taken so literally each industry has its challenges and while cruise ship might be ready to sail there are other factors that could put a damper on things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JasonOasis said:

But the question no is asking is this, has Royal Caribbean, NCL, or Carnival been able to acquire their own personal stock pile of vaccines or are they partially or totally dependent on crew members getting vaccinated on their own in their own countries?

Yes.

Several weeks ago as crew arrived on Odyssey they were quarantined land side, tested, cleared for the ship, vaccinated and isolated on board for a period before being let loose.  I'm sure they are using a vaccine recognized by Israel, likely AstraZeneca which is approved by the WHO but I don't know that's what they are using for sure.

Fast forward a month and I wouldn't be surprised if they have acquired enough WHO approved vaccines to cover a lot more crew than they need for a limited restart.  That's the thing, they only need a few thousand crew for a couple of restart ships.  By the time restart crew are cycling off their contracts it will be September or October and the vaccine will be given out like halloween candy by that point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

All RC port states offer vaccinations to all 16+ except:

April 15 - Washington (not that that really matters since Alaska cruises are toast), California

April 19 - Massachusetts (also a wash due to Canada's rules)

April 27 - Maryland

May 1 - Hawaii (again, Canada), New Jersey

 

Not sure on Puerto Rico

 

NJ updated ours yesterday, we are now April 19 for 16+

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Reigert2008 said:

President Biden is moving the deadline or all adults to be vaccine eligible to April 19th.  A lot of states are already ahead of this, but this is still pretty cool.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/06/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-deadline-biden/index.html

That statement sounds a lot like .. President Biden closed the barn door after the horse ran out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, JeffB said:

Yes, but when is Biden going to tell his HHS Secretary to get with the program and can the out dated, burdensome and irrelevant (IVO vaccine success) CDC CSO?

I don't think President has that kind of effect. Trump tried and it didnt work to change CDC policy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

All RC port states offer vaccinations to all 16+ except:

April 15 - Washington (not that that really matters since Alaska cruises are toast), California

April 19 - Massachusetts (also a wash due to Canada's rules)

April 27 - Maryland

May 1 - Hawaii (again, Canada), New Jersey

 

Not sure on Puerto Rico

 

I have friends in their 20’s getting vaccinated in PR 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Matt said:

I don't think President has that kind of effect. Trump tried and it didnt work to change CDC policy.

Disagree, it moved us from the NSO to the CSO and might have continued the movement but for a change of leadership. I think the only reason the CSO even came about was pressure from WH.

Admittedly the CSO was a bust but i think thats because the pressure stopped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only thing that can be used as a leverage to push CDC to allow cruising is to show deep reduction in the new case numbers for a while.

If I compare it to what happened Israel it will happen when you have around 40% people with first shot and 30% that fully vaccinated . Considering the number of shots admitted every day in the US it should happen by the end of this month or beginning of May .... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Reigert2008 said:

My state (KY) just opened up appointments today to people age 16 and older, and I think we've been behind a lot of other states.  Listening to our Governor today and there are a lot of available appointments across the state.  I think we are quickly reaching the point where supply may outpace demand in some areas. 

I'm in Kentucky also and my granddaughter is 15 and her school told them that they thought the vaccine will be available for her age group in July and September for my younger grand that is in middle school.  Fingers crossed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lots of cities in IL have opened up to everyone over 16 and have appointments available.....I think its because they have people in those towns who refuse to get vaccinated. In Chicago they just opened up appointments for restaurant workers. It is hard to get appointments, they don't believe we will be vaccinating our children until Aug and Sept....at the earliest.

That being said all this CDC CSO stuff is a mess. I am sure cruises will be cancelled until at least Sept. If RCG follows their stupid plan, they will need at least 90 days to comply. Which would put them around the end of July, if the CDC allows them to start meeting the requirements by the end of this month.  That would be 2-3 test cruises with the crew plus an appropriate window of time for negative results. I think the 60% reduce capacity cruises may go on longer than 30 days, so it would be 2022 before cruises started operating closer to 100% capacity. Even with all this we all should expect some cancellations. I am sure most July-Dec cruises are booked up and they are going to have to cancel on some pax. So being an optimist, I expect at least 2 more rounds of cancellations. I am still holding out hope I will be sailing on Oct 31st.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ampurp85 said:

I expect at least 2 more rounds of cancellations.

 

1 hour ago, Ampurp85 said:

Even with all this we all should expect some cancellations. I am sure most July-Dec cruises are booked up and they are going to have to cancel on some pax.

Two thoughts on where we are with this:

The cruise lines are getting more aggressive with their press releases. I would speculate that this is recognition that they will reach a dire state financially with out a restart, starting out small and quickly advancing to a broad based re-start, of cruises from US ports. Cruise lines cannot sustain themselves with the limited restarts they've embarked upon. 

The lines are not going to sit idly buy and watch the US government destroy several multi-billion dollar enterprises.  For the lines to remain with their heads above water, I'd say that has to happen by the end of June beginning of July. I'll buy a round of June cancelations but that's it. A full 15 months without revenue and no bailouts is not sustainable.  Restructuring debt and issuing notes to raise cash can only go so far.

We're getting to a tipping point. If there's no adjustments made by the CDC within the next couple of weeks, I'm pretty sure we'll see legal action. I'd also speculate that signals are being sent to that end to various members of Congress, HHS/CDC as well as overtures being made to supportive state governments.

I'm a bit hopeful ..... but then again we've all been brought to that level on at least three occasions I can recall with those hopes dashed.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

If there's a serious push to get cruising going by July 4, you'd need a favorable resolution by the end of the month. So I'd expect action from the cruise lines in the next few days.

For a 4 July start, NCL would need to start collecting crew for vaccinations late Apr/early May if 2 shot.  They would need to play the quarantine game also.  The company would need to proceed "at risk" to start recruiting, vaccinating, quarantining, and providing any new training.  Guess - 90 day lead time.  Could be shortened with  a single shot vaccine.  Maybe a 60 lead time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Traveler said:

The only thing that can be used as a leverage to push CDC to allow cruising is to show deep reduction in the new case numbers for a while.

If I compare it to what happened Israel it will happen when you have around 40% people with first shot and 30% that fully vaccinated . Considering the number of shots admitted every day in the US it should happen by the end of this month or beginning of May .... 

I think another thing that could help move things along is if the cruise industry in the US spoke with one voice.

 

Today Carnival Cruise Lines put out a statement saying they are not taking a stance or a position  on mandatory  vaccinations.  They agree with Royal and Norwegian that the CSO is not workable and needs to end by July but that is where the agreement ends with Carnival.  The CDC isn't just going to get out of the way and allow each cruise line to come up with their own rules especially when Carnival back in February was floating the idea of allowing passengers to board a cruise with a 5 day old negative COVID test. 

 

It shouldn't be this difficult for the 3 major cruise lines in this country to get on the same page and requiring a 5 day old COVID test (Carnival) is not how you're going to restart cruising in this country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@JeffB I do think legal and public (broadcasting the hypocrisy when it comes to other forms of travel/vacation) action are going to facilitate a faster restart date than the CSO date of Nov 1st.... But I stand by my 2 rounds of cancellations, I believe that RCG has cancelled most cruises until May 31st, I doubt there will be US sailings in June. If sweet baby Jesus decides to part the clouds and strike the CDC into action, they may be able to start in July. But there will be capacity restrictions, given that most children won't be vaccinated by then, they will have to keep those limits far longer than 30 days. The CSO says as long as metrics and criteria are met, the cruise lines can increase capacity every 30 days. My point is that I am sure RCG thought we would be sailing by now, so many of the cruises past the initial worse case scenario of May 1st are probably at capacity. RCG is probably going to send out offers/and or cancel bookings. They might scrap whole itineraries and move the cruise to other destinations. Like you mentioned, its been over a year with minuscule revenue. So they may have to rethink things, just like adding some sailing from the Bahamas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, JeffB said:

I'd also speculate that signals are being sent to that end to various members of Congress, HHS/CDC as well as overtures being made to supportive state governments.

I posted this as a part of a longer post on why I think the cruise lines, financially, are at a tipping point. I believe they see their survival as viable entities imperiled. They are sitting on billions of dollars of unproductive capital assets, a payroll and mounting debt that they have taken on to sustain themselves or restructured to delay repayments. Think about the billions the lines invested in new ship building the 6-12 months prior to the pandemic that shut cruise ship operations down. Corporate is starting to play hardball ......

Walenski's and Becerra's phones were probably ringing off the hook today. There's pressure from Congressmen, governors and corporate leadership. The result was this milk toast press release, not much more than a regurgitation of the phased approach contained in the CSO, from a CDC spokesperson:

“CDC is committed to working with the cruise industry and seaport partners to resume cruising following the phased approach outlined in the conditional sailing order,” CDC spokeswoman Jade Fulce said in a response to questions about Carnival. “This goal aligns with the desire to resume passenger operations in the United States expressed by many major cruise ship operators and travelers; hopefully, by mid-summer with restricted revenue sailings.”

Hopefully, this is the start of changes to be forthcoming. My take is that there will be more movement on the part of HHS and the CDC. There has to be. What the CDC is holding on to is just not defensible any longer, the cruise line execs are smelling blood in the water.

I predict some kind of face saving modifications to the CSO that will tend to make the CDC and HHS look and feel good about themselves. The introduction of vaccines - the recognition of their impact on virus transmission and disease burden - will be a big part of those mods. There won't be any vaccine mandates from HHS to restart cruising. That is for sure. These contracts that the CDC has mandated between cruise lines, ports and nearby health care facilities will probably disappear and be replaced by agreements rather than legally enforceable contracts - those are hard.

IVO of voluntary vaccine requirements implemented by the cruise lines, some virus metric thresholds might be relaxed. Port employees and guest relations staff may only be required to mask and maintain distance not all be vaccinated. I can see lot of changes to the nitty gritty of the CSO that makes things infinitely easier for ports and cruise lines to restart operations. These don't need to be publicly flouted by anyone with the intent of making the CDC look bad.

The lines know exactly what is at stake here if some leeway is granted and things get screwed up with an outbreak onboard or precipitated by virus spread in a port and surrounding local community. They have every incentive to seriously make embarkation, voyages, port calls and debarkation as safe as they all can be from outbreaks. The CDC should recognize that paternalistic COVID mitigation mandates are not necessary with a huge incentive for good corporate behavior from the cruise lines. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/6/2021 at 8:02 PM, smokeybandit said:

It may be until mid summer before cruise lines and port authorities can come to agreements on how to handle the inconceivable scenario of 3000 covid cases at once

That's right...inconceivable.  Won't happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not shocked either.

We're 5d into the flurry of hits on the CDC/HHS CSO from interested parties. The response from the CDC is to shrug their shoulders and announce, "cruise ships will sail from US ports by mid-summer." Pretty useless because it's missing a path forward other than some specifics on the technicals that the CDC released under pressure but no dates or timelines were provided.

A couple of COVID related points:

The reality of what's happening in countries that had the resources to lock in vaccine orders and are moving forward in an accelerated way to vaccinate adults - steeply declining deaths and hospitalizations - contradicts most global health authorities negative COVID messaging, including the CDC's. Yes, new cases have increased after dropping steeply as vaccines were introduced then plateauing at what the CDC claims is too high of a number.

While new C-19 case numbers have been a continual if not misleading metric when taken out of context it is much less relevant in a circumstance where vaccines are becoming widely available. There are better metrics available but those appear to not being considered as indicators of the need to revise or ease the general approach to SARS2 transmission and COVID mitigation measures.

Interestingly, more than 50% of new case numbers are in 5 states, FL is one of them. IOW, these are regional outbreaks that should be treated as such with appropriate focus on controlling them. Instead, we get a one size fits all approach as measured by rising case numbers.

In the US, the lack of a strategy or milestones articulated by federal  public health and infectious disease officials and general guidance to get businesses and people safely back to a post-COVID normalcy is shockingly shortsighted.

Meanwhile, Broward Co. the home of PEV, has developed a set of reasonable milestones using appropriate COVID metrics for easing mitigation measures in 3 phases. These are consistent with the phased reopening plan that Governor Desantis signed off on last June. They make sense. If you're interested you can read it here:  https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/broward-commissioners-vote-to-relax-some-covid-19-restrictions/2422564/

At this point, I have little hope for a revision of the CSO by HHS/CDC in the next 9 days. I set a wait and see date of April 15th, 2w after the CDC's release of technicals, to see if there was any movement. It still could happen but we've lost some momentum and in 9 more days, no one will be interested having moved on to more pressing matters, the CDC having dodge a bullet thay should have taken center mass. I'd really like to see a federal court filing asking for an injunction directed against DHS's enforcement of the NSO. Probably hard to do but I wish someone would try. I want to see the US Justice Department try to defend what's in the CSO and the technicals released last week. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...