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Call It: First Cruise Sails.......????


CJS2766

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This is such a complicated question to even make an educated guess. So many variables, not the least of which is the arbitrariness of the CDC. They have a huge hang-up on congregate settings being cauldrons of disease spread. Well, they are and always have been. What the CDC seems to be missing is that while they live in a status-quo state regarding infectiouos disease, everything with regard to COVID is changing faster than they can keep up.

So, the answer to the question is then a two step one:

(1) When the CDC gets a dose of reality. Look, the observational evidence is overwhelming that adequate protections from SARS-2 spread among vaccinated people exists to the point where they should realize that SARS-2 is rapidly approaching the nuisance stage that bugs like Norovirus, seasonal influenza and cruise cough have lived in for years. Vaccinated people can congregate ..... period, full stop...... using the same hygiene protocols most people adhere to to keep from getting sick. Moreover, this is not a zero risk proposition. You might get sick, you might get COVID, but if you're vaccinated you aren't going to get seriously ill.   

(2) When the "technicals" of complying with the CDC's Safe to Sail requirements that the cruise lines say they are waiting for to be in receipt of any day now (right!) are in their hands and we see test cruises happening from FL and TX ports.

Has anyone been able to collate the date on which the majors have avoided cancelling cruises in either June or July? Gut based guess in June is Friday the 11th-Sunday the 13th or in July, the  3rd - 5th. 3-5d cruises would be most likely to start on those dates, possibly 7d itineraries under the right circumstances. The tea leaves say passengers wishing to board will have to have proof of vaccination, possibly proof of previous infection by PCR and recovery by Anti-Body testing.

A June start-up for revenue cruises requires the CDC to green light test cruises by mid April and then, cruise ships, in small numbers getting approved/certified safe to sail in around 6w time following that. Lots of things have to fall into place but, it's possible barring any vaccine delivery hic-ups or politization of decisions involving the safety of properly adapted congregate settings like baseball stadiums, indoor concerts and yep, cruise ships. But, it's going to be slow going. A single COVID case on a cruise ship in the testing and certification phase or on subsequent revenue sailings will up-set the entire apple cart.

In other words restarting cruising from US ports is really hard. While I'm optimistic it could happen as early as June, so many potential pit-falls. 

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1 hour ago, Mike.s said:

Early August, UK cruises start, end of August short cruises to Co Co Cay, 2022, normality returns, hopefully.

Late July hopefully as I'm on the 24th sailing...got everything crossed.  Although, on Tips for Travellers love stream on YouTube (today) there was rumours from crew on-board RCL ships that they are crewing up for June sailings

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25 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

The cruise lines would have to be able to do test cruises this month in order to be doing revenue cruises in June.

Not in UK as the suggestion is that test cruises have been done courtesy of MSC in Italy, proving that protocols can work.  In the US I think each cruise line needs to do test cruises...

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1 hour ago, em.down.the.rabbit.hole said:

Not in UK as the suggestion is that test cruises have been done courtesy of MSC in Italy, proving that protocols can work.  In the US I think each cruise line needs to do test cruises...

There is no way the US CDC would follow that rational line of thinking ?

 

Official statement would read....

Just because tens of thousands of people have successfully and safely cruised since last fall and through the “second wave” on multiple cruise lines does not mean it is safe to resume. If we allow this we at the CDC will no longer feel important and we cannot let this happen.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 3/13/2021 at 12:47 PM, Vancity Cruiser said:

Official statement would read....

Just because tens of thousands of people have successfully and safely cruised since last fall and through the “second wave” on multiple cruise lines does not mean it is safe to resume. If we allow this we at the CDC will no longer feel important and we cannot let this happen.

With all the announcements made since this post the statement will have to be amended to hundreds of thousands (potentially even millions by the time they realize that they are in fact the ones holding up the entire industry) have successfully and safely sailed.

Seriously though, how long can the CDC ignore the facts of successful sailings? Even “non vaccinated” cruises are operating safely with testing and other protocols in place.

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14 minutes ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

Seriously though, how long can the CDC ignore the facts of successful sailings? Even “non vaccinated” cruises are operating safely with testing and other protocols in place.

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

Saw this today that in a "real world study" that both Pfizer and Moderna show to be 90% effective.  This would probably take into account at least some of the variants.  Report was from the CDC, so maybe this will affect future plans.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-29/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prevent-infections-in-real-world-study

*Edit: i forgot the link to the article!

 

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21 minutes ago, twangster said:

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

Politically-driven agencies are much like cruise ships. They can't just put the brakes on and stop.  Look at the recent school guidance change from 6 feet to 3 feet. The CDC directory said last summer that 3 feet was fine, but it 9 months later to actually make that their formal guidance.

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43 minutes ago, twangster said:

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

hmm..no...really?!

Here in Canada I think we know that..there has been no relaxation or rule changes for vaccinated people at all.(One vaccine I wont name isn't acceptable for Nurses here in Canada, hmm)

 

Still wear a mask, social distance..and you can still get it and give it even when vaccinatted....so why would cruises or anything start based on that.

 

Case #'s going up and down is a natural progression or  a virus..happened last summer with NO vaccines so.....

 

I feel its a long wait yet for cruising.....date wise...? Well it depends, are we talking back to normal cruising or full fleet or relaxed protocols when cruising again or?

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7 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

Well it depends, are we talking back to normal cruising or full fleet or relaxed protocols when cruising again or?

At this point the CDC won't even allow test cruises let alone cruises with paying guests using all of the CDC's best protocols.  They won't even allow cruise lines to start thinking about having one ship in partial operation at reduced capacity.

Normal cruising?  What's that?  

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52 minutes ago, twangster said:

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

I could see them pointing to the "we need xx% of the population to be vaccinated for it to be safe".

Nevermind nursing homes are open/opening back up and they are the true petri dish incubators.

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8 minutes ago, Matt said:

I could see them pointing to the "we need xx% of the population to be vaccinated for it to be safe".

Nevermind nursing homes are open/opening back up and they are the true petri dish incubators.

I think you mean yy% because in the time it took to write this the CDC has already moved the goalposts 3 times.

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26 minutes ago, Matt said:

I could see them pointing to the "we need xx% of the population to be vaccinated for it to be safe".

Nevermind nursing homes are open/opening back up and they are the true petri dish incubators.

The CDC’s own guidance is that vaccinated people are allowed to gather indoors with no masks and no social distancing (or has that changed?). Common sense would then dictate that a fully vaccinated cruise should be acceptable.

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8 minutes ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

The CDC’s own guidance is that vaccinated people are allowed to gather indoors with no masks and no social distancing (or has that changed?). Common sense would then dictate that a fully vaccinated cruise should be acceptable.

Right?...so what is the issue.....makes ZERO sense

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1 hour ago, monctonguy said:

Here in Canada I think we know that..there has been no relaxation or rule changes for vaccinated people at all.

My understanding is that it is too soon for us. 

It's hard not to compare to the US, but we cannot in this case.  There is no way Health Canada can give guidance for vaccinated people right now because we hardly have anyone vaccinated compared to the US.  And even though our vaccination rates are improving, everyone only has one dose (due to the 4 month spacing), and it will be that way for quite a while so it is way more difficult to give guidance around that when not much of your population is vaccinated and most of those that are only have one dose (unless you are a resident or worker in Long Term Care). 

SMH, it is truly a mess.  But I agree, cruising for Canadians does not look good for a while.  I will thank my lucky stars if I can get on Allure by December 2021.  That is honestly the soonest I see for us here in Canada, by the time you factor in full vaccinations, border issues, quarantine to relax.  

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11 minutes ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

SMH, it is truly a mess.  But I agree, cruising for Canadians does not look good for a while.  I will thank my lucky stars if I can get on Allure by December 2021.  That is honestly the soonest I see for us here in Canada, by the time you factor in full vaccinations, border issues, quarantine to relax. 

Same. While it’s exciting to see cruises restarting I believe my next cruise will be Jan 8. 2022 on Symphony. If we are able to go sooner I will try to book something earlier but right now that is my next booking (I have 4 booked for 2022!). That being said it is still exciting to see the cruise industry slowly coming back to life and knowing they’ll still be around for my 2022 bookings!

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26 minutes ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

Same. While it’s exciting to see cruises restarting I believe my next cruise will be Jan 8. 2022 on Symphony. If we are able to go sooner I will try to book something earlier but right now that is my next booking (I have 4 booked for 2022!). That being said it is still exciting to see the cruise industry slowly coming back to life and knowing they’ll still be around for my 2022 bookings!

I totally agree. I am so sad that I am missing out on all these summer sailings but it truly makes me happy to see the ships sailing. 

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6 minutes ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

I totally agree. I am so sad that I am missing out on all these summer sailings but it truly makes me happy to see the ships sailing. 

At least no one on any of these ships Americans could book have Star Class. Level of FOMO for @Lovetocruise2002 wont reach critical mass.

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8 minutes ago, Matt said:

At least no one on any of these ships Americans could book have Star Class. Level of FOMO for @Lovetocruise2002 wont reach critical mass.

Thank goodness for that! lol

FOMO is already at pretty critical level in the lovetocruise2002 household.  Hubby and kids have scattered more than once due to moodiness from FOMO.,

 

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My guess (fingers crossed) is June 1.  Likely with a vaccination requirement for over 16.

Here is my logic.  First, the emergency health order expires on April 21 or so.  That order trumps the CDC order in that the CDC conditional sail order is based upon the emergency health order and if the first one expires the second one automatically expires.  

Second, a member of our facebook cruise page contacted customer service for Royal about our check in process being shut down.  They were told that the cruise has not been cancelled and that the check in process is temporarily down to be updated with additional CDC requirements.  They were adamant about that Royal wants and intends at this point to cruise from the US in June.

Third, the leadership of Royal and Carnival have become a bit more vocal and political in the last few weeks suggesting that the conditional sail order is no longer relevant or needed etc.  Seems like they are all starting to turn up the heat.  This plus the fact that politicians (most notably the Governor of Florida and Senator from Alaska) are pushing for answer to the question of when cruise ships can operate and why are they being treated so much different than say hotels, airlines etc.

Finally, If you listen to the statement by Carnival it almost seems as though the cruise lines know something that has not been made public.  Perhaps their work with the CDC has resulted in them being give the additional guidelines etc.  They may have both volunteered to be the first to go and therefore guinea pigs for the industry.  In any case, it seems odd to me that both have come out with public comments about the same time that seems to put them both on June 1 start dates.

Of course, I could be making all of this up....lol   Here's to hoping.

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