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It's Coming ........


JeffB

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Why is the Points Guy wrong about calling the number one thing to watch to signal a restart of cruising is new case numbers. Well. he's right in one sense since too many simply don't understand the science and the facts. But Public Health Officials deciding on what metrics should guide easing of mitigation measures should look at R(0) or the number of people one infected person then infects others. When that number is <1.0, the virus is receding, circulating and increasing when it's > 1.0. This is a graphic depiction of R(0) by state followed by a listing of each state's R(0). If I counted correctly, 3 states have increasing numbers of cases (R-0 >1.0) https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/

If you want to dig into this and see national data current through today go here: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/

A couple of take-aways from these charts: R(0) at the second link shows a real and forecast upward trend - this is where Fauci and Walenski are getting information to suggest that new cases may not be declining as fast as 2 weeks ago or are rising. There are multiple caveats to the data. If the testing circumstances change (e.g., less aggressive testing, more aggressive testing) it affects the reliability of the data sets rendering forecasts unreliable. So, I take with a grain of salt Fauci's and Walenski's warnings on Friday and Biden's pessimism on Saturday evening.

That is because, in the US, as vaccines become available, public health resources are being diverted from testing sites and moved to vaccinations sites - less testing is happening. As well, fewer people are requesting to be tested. I'm more inclined to look at data 7-14d ago as being more reliable than the last 7d. IOW, the trend in virus circulation is downward and will stay that way as long as getting vaccines into peoples arms is front and center.   I'd add that augmenting the R(0) metric with hospitalizations and deaths - both declining in absolute terms and trending downward in rate terms - supports the take that the virus is receding not that it is accelerating or will accelerate. 

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15 hours ago, SpeedNoodles said:

I don't see the point about complaining that public areas are being disinfected more often.  There are certainly other diseases and problems that could be mitigated by excellent sanitation (hello, Norovirus).  

Yep - Its been almost a year since we sailed Liberty of the Seas. It was the last Liberty cruise before everything shut down.   Under the threat, that ship was super clean - never saw so much attention to cleaning detail on a ship before.  We sailed with all our family and no one picked up the common cruise crud, nor did we hear fellow passengers coughing and sneezing as much as past cruises.  In discussing the additional cleaning protocols with the Johnny Rockets manager, he thought the protocols were a lot of work but felt they should have been done all the time.  The food service industry is amazing when you think of how many vectors there are to get sick, yet for the most part, there aren't a lot of wide spread sickness breakouts unless one of the "rules" is bent or broken.

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14 hours ago, SpeedNoodles said:

I don't see the point about complaining that public areas are being disinfected more often.  There are certainly other diseases and problems that could be mitigated by excellent sanitation (hello, Norovirus).  

I don't disagree with this, after all, influenza has been absent this flu season mostly because of mitigation measures such as sanitizing surfaces. Both H1N1-influenza and norovirus are both known to be transmitted by fomites - the epidemiologic term for fingers > touch a contaminated surface > touch mucous membranes (mouth, nose eyes) > develop disease symptoms (fever, body aches, vomiting, diarrhea).

My point was that it is now within the body of SARS-2 scientific knowledge that SARS-2 is not transmitted via fomites. Public health officials have advanced the notion that hand washing, use of hand sanitizers, sanitizing surfaces with products like Clorox or Lysol is an effective mitigation measures for stopping the spread of the virus from the beginning and continue to emphasize it now. It isn't and amounts to little more than virtue signaling. Masking and distancing to stop the spread of the virus by it's primary mode of transmission - airborne droplets and aerosols - is very important.

While there is no doubt that increased sanitizing of surfaces in public areas has decreased disease from viruses spread by this mode of transmission, emphasizing it as a effective mitigation measure for COVID is counter-productive. That is because people learn it doesn't help and that develops mistrust to public health guidance and fuels antipathy toward measures that do work.       

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15 hours ago, SpeedNoodles said:

I don't see the point about complaining that public areas are being disinfected more often.  There are certainly other diseases and problems that could be mitigated by excellent sanitation (hello, Norovirus).  

Right? This reminds me of our sailing on Rhapsody in 2017. The previous sailing had a small norovirus outbreak (20-30 cases). As a result, the ship underwent thorough cleaning for the remainder of that cruise, additional deep cleaning of common areas post-cruise (I believe it may have delayed the cabins being ready/opened), and the staff was continually cleaning "high-touch" items during out cruise. (hand-rails, elevator controls, etc.) and hand sanitizing protocols at dining entrances. I appreciated the efforts and it certainly didn't dampen my enjoyment. 

What was perplexing was the "grumpiness" of some people entering the WJ at the thought of having to use the hand sanitizer. The constant cry of "But I just washed my hands!" at the poor young lady holding the sanitizer was pathetic. How is she supposed to know and confirm that?

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What can we take from RCL's announcement that Odyssey will sail from Haifa on May 21st as Matt just posted on the front page?

Well, if ports in FL and TX can lead the way in getting their COVID numbers right, we could see those ports getting sequentially greenlighted by the CDC. This thinking based on the experience in Israel may not translate to the US but I could see the CDC looking regionally and locally with lifting sailing restrictions instead of lifting the restrictions entirely. 

Besides that? Getting on an RCL  cruise ship that's debarking from just about anywhere is going to require a vaccination. 

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57 minutes ago, JeffB said:

Besides that? Getting on an RCL  cruise ship that's debarking from just about anywhere is going to require a vaccination. 

^^^THIS!

That was my immediate takeaway from the news the morning. We’re good to go! Hubby should be getting his this month and I might have to wait till May, but as soon as our borders open, we are masked and ready! 

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13 minutes ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

^^^THIS!

That was my immediate takeaway from the news the morning. We’re good to go! Hubby should be getting his this month and I might have to wait till May, but as soon as our borders open, we are masked and ready! 

@Lovetocruise2002 spotting coming soon to the US border

Episode 9 Marty Mush GIF by Barstool Sports

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"EU Announces Plan for Vaccine Passports."

It's coming. Cross boarder EU travel is going to be available at some point when objections to the discriminatory nature of these things either get sensibly over-come or simply rolled over despite those objections. It's not clear in the article how US citizens who have been vaccinated will be treated. Looks like for now, anyway, it's EU passport holders who will be getting the green light.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/europes-covid-passports-coming-to-an-airport-near-you-in-march

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