Ditchdoc Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Like many I am anxious to get back to cruising. Of course the big issue is COVID. I have read a number of articles about the vaccine and the many steps taken by the cruise industry and others. My personal opinion is that until COVID is under control, until enough people are vaccinated that COVID cases not only start dropping but are significantly lower, cruising is going to struggle. So I had a simple question I was not really seeing asked. How long will it be before enough vaccine is available for everyone? So I did a little investigation. Of course there are a lot of variables and one has to consider the scale of the operation. I started to look at some numbers because numbers do not lie unless of course you use the wrong numbers. A few basic numbers seems to tell at least some of the story. The cruise industry is a world wide operation. In the world, there are roughly 7.8 billion people. That is 7,800 million people. Being a little more focused since I am in the United States, the US has about 330 million people. Right now it seems Moderna is capable of producing 600 million vaccine doses this year. Plans are to increase to 1 billion in an unknown time frame. Right now Pfizer is capable of producing 1.3 billion doses this year. Plans are to increase to 2 billion in an unknown time frame. Keep in mind that everyone needs 2 doses. The delivery schedule between the US government and both companies is about 300 million doses by July of this year. Currently about 25 million doses have been made available. If you have been keeping track, the US will have roughly enough doses to fully vaccinate (2 doses) about one half of the US population by July. Granted, if things go well, production levels increase, additional vaccines are approved, distribution and administration improves etc .... maybe, just maybe the US will get to that 70% immunity number (or was it 80%) sometime between the 4th of July and Thanksgiving. The last cruise I was on had almost 7,000 passengers from all over the world. I do not want to even try and speculate when the world will reach that magic immunity number, whatever it is. The numbers tell me that it could be at least 2 more years before enough vaccine is available to inoculate the world. My best guess is the cruise industry is in for another year of hard times. I hope it gets better sooner but my thought right now is planning for a holiday season cruise near the end of 2021 with a big blowout new years for 2022 is about the best to hope for. Even then there will be some serious restrictions like proof of vaccination etc. PPPJJ-GCVAB and mjb1127 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.s Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 There was a report in the UK press today stating all UK adults could be vaccinated by mid July, let's hope this is the case. mjb1127 and PPPJJ-GCVAB 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXcruzer Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 J&J is expected to submit for EUA approval in the next couple weeks and have plans for 1 billion doses this year (and this is a single dose vaccine) mjb1127 and PPPJJ-GCVAB 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curt From Canada Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 A few random thoughts: Cruises returning are almost all dependent on the US crushing the virus. 75% of the cruising industry depends on North America. There may be limited cruising startups based on a "Vaccine Passport" process. Who makes this call will be something to watch (it will not be a popular decision), but once made it will "de-risk" the initial wave of startups (pun intended). As others have noted, other vaccines are on the way and they will be affective as well. The number of dosages available will not be the issue in the Western world. There will be a reluctance from some to get the vaccine initially. This should not significantly delay a limited cruising restart. See Point 2. The issue is getting vaccines into peoples' arms. It is a massive task, and will take smart people to coordinate (almost as smart as our saviours who developed these wonderous vaccines). Given a slow start to "vaccines in arms"(that we are seeing), it could be until the late summer before we see wide numbers vaccinated. A smaller cruising "relaunch" based on the Vaccine Passport process could mean earlier limited cruising. Still, it looks like a significant return will be no earlier than the Fall of 2021. My soulmate and I are booked for FEB 2022 because we are CDN (Canada will be slightly delayed) and because we are conservative. Just one dumb Engineer's opinion from the Great White North. Curt from Canada sammy79, mjb1127 and teddy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.