twangster Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 "When will ships sail?" We all want to know the answer, or maybe we thought we did. https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2020/12/18/research-firm-forecasts-royal-caribbeans-gradual-cruise-ship-restart-plan The research firm concluded that across the Royal Caribbean Group brands, 44% of the fleet will be operating by December 2021 for an average of 20% sailing for the full year. They also think 100% of the fleet will be in operation by mid-2022 and will finish fiscal year 2022 with 84% capacity. DDaley 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twangster Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Note it appears that this is independent research and an estimation by a 3rd party that was not hired by Royal Caribbean. USFFrank and JLMoran 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancity Cruiser Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I found this article extremely interesting, especially the 44% by end of 2021. Seems low and still extremely tough for cruise lines financially. I wonder how accurate the research is? WannaCruise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USFFrank Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Oh joy, once again "experts" are telling us what they think will happen, just like some of the posters on these message boards. Matts magic 8-ball is more accurate. Anyone feel like holding their breath? Jjohnb and ehw51 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulRC Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Are these the same experts that claimed "It would take a miracle to have a vaccine in less that a year"? USFFrank 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.s Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, PaulRC said: Are these the same experts that claimed "It would take a miracle to have a vaccine in less that a year"? Let's hope they are, otherwise I'm fearing for my May sailing from Southampton PaulRC and USFFrank 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WannaCruise Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Ugh...so discouraging. I am mentally giving up my August cruise (as price has shot way up so even Royal isn't hopeful...plus vaccine distribution across the world), but was thinking with a vaccine that Dec 2021 has a good chance. But if only 44% of RCL ships running (which isn't just Royal ships), then Anthem isn't likely to be one of them as it's an indoor ship. I sure hope this prediction is wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twangster Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Keep in mind this appears to be a company that does research but may not have extensive experience with the cruise industry. They went through investors calls, talked with travel agents and reviewed orders from public health agencies then ran projections using who knows what algorithms. Many on the internet have also looked at some of the same material and with equally uninformed public health experience or industry experience we made our own projections. At least some of us have been on a cruise ship before. It's one estimation, no more or less valid that any other estimation. Only time will tell which of us has guessed or estimated more accurately. Baked Alaska, WannaCruise, PaulRC and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizzy Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I really would love my March 7th cruise on Oasis is a go. Please Lord, make it happen! Thanks in advance! Haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Here's the full text of the report. I don't think they have any more insight than anyone here. However, they are looking at it from a different perspective (investment vs fandom). Also worth noting that percentage is for all of RCG, that those percentages include Celebrity, RCI, Azamara, et al. Cruise+Industry+Update+12_18_2020__1.pdf cruisellama, heffy2, ehw51 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruisellama Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 hours ago, Matt said: Here's the full text of the report. I don't think they have any more insight than anyone here. However, they are looking at it from a different perspective (investment vs fandom). Also worth noting that percentage is for all of RCG, that those percentages include Celebrity, RCI, Azamara, et al. Cruise+Industry+Update+12_18_2020__1.pdf 818.27 kB · 4 downloads Aren't they the folks that get to call in to the earnings call and ask questions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twangster Posted December 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 hours ago, cruisellama said: Aren't they the folks that get to call in to the earnings call and ask questions? Nope. Only major investment firms get the "ask questions" privilege. No indication they are or they represent a major investment firm for all the cruise lines they estimated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DunwoodyDad Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 I’ve done stuff like this for companies I work for and it’s purely a model to attempt to predict revenues...certainly not a bottoms up look. So I wouldn’t draw too many conclusions for a particular sailing you are booked on, but I do think it highlights the gradual ramp that is a function of so many barriers that the cruise lines have to overcome as they come back. It just won’t be a light switch. WannaCruise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jticarruthers Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Ultimately all a guessing game at this point and based on recent comments I dont think the cruise lines even know what their plan is .. sounds like the latest iteration is waiting on the vaccine to get us to some point that the CDC finds acceptable. WAAAYTOOO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mworkman Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 hours ago, twangster said: Nope. Only major investment firms get the "ask questions" privilege. No indication they are or they represent a major investment firm for all the cruise lines they estimated. I noticed that they were asking questions during RCL Q2 2020 conference call, so they must have something at stake or representative for a company. Someone’s footing the bill for them to do the research? My question is who, because there not doing this for free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twangster Posted December 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 44 minutes ago, mworkman said: I noticed that they were asking questions during RCL Q2 2020 conference call, so they must have something at stake or representative for a company. Someone’s footing the bill for them to do the research? My question is who, because there not doing this for free. They sell their research. Check out their website. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeffB Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just found this thread. I'd compare this presentation similar to the Adler profitability piece. Also noted DunwoodyDad's post which is informative. The perspectives in both these presentations is business and investment oriented. I've been skeptical of modeling in the area where I have some experience - medicine. I put more weight and by extension value into what practitioners that have a lot of clinical experience when it comes to patient management. There is evidence that the conclusions the author arrives at are based on modeling not actual experience. Therefore, recognize that they are models, subject to the vagaries of them and often horribly wrong. So, talking about clinical experience as it might apply to the question when does cruising re-start???..... until health authorities, and I include the CDC but there are other players with the authority to impact re-start dates, see an appreciable decline in COVID-19 prevalence regionally where cruise ships will operate, a re-start isn't likely. Caveats apply. The CDC will tell you up front, it's not their job to find balance between economic, social and public health costs when advising what measures are appropriate to reduce the impact of a serious public health threat like SARS-CoV-2 presents. They are interested in one thing: data driven public health interests. The cruise lines are going to battle this reality for some time. However, caveat, other factors are starting to weigh on that premise. It is a good sign that officials are starting to look at the economic costs of continued mitigation measures that presumptively confer little public health benefit - completely closing restaurants, for example, instead of limiting hours. Vaccines bring a new calculation to the balancing equation though. That is a reduction in disease burden. So, while prevalence of infections may remain high for the next 90 or so days, I believe we will start to see deaths and hospitalizations decline. Possibly sharply once vaccines get wider distribution among the 65 and older populations. While these so called models may predict hard times ahead for avid cruisers, my take is that they won't be anywhere near as awful going forward. That is because the armamentarium in the tool box for combating the pandemic is increasing rapidly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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