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With the new Vaccine information when it will be possible to cruise normally


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1 hour ago, cruisellama said:

We'll probably find out we need this thing every year just like an influenza shot.  But this first round of pokes are key to getting travel allowed.

It just may turn into that because of these new strains or variants. I already get the flu shot so it won't be a huge deal but rather not get it every year.

Speaking of the flu shot. I hear Moderna is working on mRNA vaccines for a better flu shot and that would be very welcome. 

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8 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

It just may turn into that because of these new strains or variants. I already get the flu shot so it won't be a huge deal but rather not get it every year.

Speaking of the flu shot. I hear Moderna is working on mRNA vaccines for a better flu shot and that would be very welcome. 

mRNA is big.  Not just for COVID 19.  Cancer, flu and even the common cold is in its sights.  Too soon to tell, but very promising.  I am glad to be alive in the 21st Century, and not the 16th Century.

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Curt from Canada

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5 minutes ago, Curt From Canada said:

mRNA is big.  Not just for COVID 19.  Cancer, flu and even the common cold is in its sights.  Too soon to tell, but very promising.  I am glad to be alive in the 21st Century, and not the 16th Century.

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Curt from Canada

Yes, cancer too. Now that would be something. I'd like to see that gone in my lifetime. My dad passed away from colin cancer that spread. No family should have to go through that. 

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5 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

Yes, cancer too. Now that would be something. I'd like to see that gone in my lifetime. My dad passed away from colin cancer that spread. No family should have to go through that. 

This is not necessarily a topic for a cruise blog, but your words have touched me.  This is not a cheery topic, but an important one.  My grandfather passed away from colon cancer as well (long ago ... I am not a young man).  It affected me significantly, and hurts over 40 years later.

mRNA (and some other similars) have the ability to energize our immune systems against the cancer "invaders".  It still is not proven, but it may be the best bet we have (currently).  I pray for the day these game changers save millions.

Curt from Canada

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5 minutes ago, Curt From Canada said:

This is not necessarily a topic for a cruise blog, but your words have touched me.  This is not a cheery topic, but an important one.  My grandfather passed away from colon cancer as well (long ago ... I am not a young man).  It affected me significantly, and hurts over 40 years later.

mRNA (and some other similars) have the ability to energize our immune systems against the cancer "invaders".  It still is not proven, but it may be the best bet we have (currently).  I pray for the day these game changers save millions.

Curt from Canada

And I'm sorry for your loss. It never fully goes away. He was only 61. Had a lot of life to live. That was 2008. 

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On 1/20/2021 at 3:55 AM, S0nny said:

2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine received on 1/19!

I have injection site pain (I didn't have any on the first one), but that's it so far. Too bad they canceled my April cruise ? I was hopeful this little card would be my golden ticket to normalcy ... at least if only for a week or two... 

willy wonka and the chocolate factory GIF

I'm number 214,897 in my county.

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Key thing I've come to learn and understand about the J&J vaccine over the weekend is that, while it's only 49%-72% effective (depending on the region you're looking at and how widespread variants are there) at blocking infection, it has been 100% effective at preventing death due to the disease and over 90% effective at preventing the disease from becoming serious enough to require hospitalization. And those latter stats include all the people in the trial who've had the various variants. That's on par with the other vaccines, and as others here have noted it's a game changer when combined with the fact that it's stable at standard refrigerator temperatures, only needs a single dose, and can be produced in much larger quantities.

@WAAAYTOOO, this vaccine still isn't what you'd call a "traditional" vaccine based on a dead or weakened version of the virus. It's delivered using an Adenovirus (i.e., cold virus) that has been genetically modified to carry the DNA for producing the spike protein, but also modified so it can't reproduce itself. Same end result -- "infected" cells at the injection site produce just the spike protein, which gets secreted from the cells into the blood, and an immune response is triggered.

This is a newer approach to vaccine design that's been researched for decades, although the first such vaccine was only approved last July (for Ebola) -- see this article from the New York Times that explains it all at a high level.

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33 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

over 90% effective at preventing the disease from becoming serious enough to require hospitalization.

Just a pedantic point here: it's actually also 100% effective at preventing hospitalization per the trial data. Severe disease is classified as low oxygen (below 95% saturation) with or without hospitalization (and a bunch of other criteria)... Pfizer also had a case of severe disease classified this way that also didn't require hospitalization. So even better news!

I think you and I have discussed this earlier, and we seem to be in agreement that if the bar is no nCoV-19 anywhere on a ship, then cruises will never sail again. If the bar is instead a much more reasonable metric based on cases of severe covid, then once we have decent, population level immunological resistance to disease via the vaccines and natural infection then we should be good to go.

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I think the bar for the vaccines should be decreased hospitalization and death. People still can get flu after a flu vaccine but most will have mild symptoms and not require hospitalization.  That’s why I’m pretty excited about J&J vaccine. One shot = quicker availability for the public.  I’ve already received 2 shots of Moderna and would’ve signed up for J&J if I didn’t have earlier access 

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MORE good news? Sure, why not.

Why the New Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Will Help Lead to the End of the Pandemic

Quote

Mount Sinai infectious diseases experts participated in the clinical trials for Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose vaccine and are excited about its effectiveness against moderate and severe COVID-19. What is most remarkable is that 28 days after a single dose, no vaccine recipient had been hospitalized for COVID-19 or died from COVID-19. And, protection increased over time: 49 days after that single dose, there were no cases of severe COVID-19 among the recipients

 

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Well maybe better news , have a look on the number of new cases in the US , seems its going down , and its not just in the US , something happened and it its not just the vaccine :

This graph is from the CDS site (you can also track on number of people that go the vaccine in the US)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

image.thumb.png.c20c399a2be25f3866513da591c68ec0.png

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26 minutes ago, Traveler said:

Well maybe better news , have a look on the number of new cases in the US , seems its going down , and its not just in the US , something happened and it its not just the vaccine :

This graph is from the CDS site (you can also track on number of people that go the vaccine in the US)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

image.thumb.png.c20c399a2be25f3866513da591c68ec0.png

This is how the CDC cruise ship task force interprets that graph...

1118208313_CDCSharpie.thumb.jpg.5ee227af12e4e1e48ffc8f1d1a5702c5.jpg

 

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2 hours ago, jticarruthers said:

There would have to be a task force before they could get as far as interpreting

Cindy Friedman is a medical epidemiologist who leads the CDC’s cruise ship team, or did back when she was speaking to the media nearly a year ago.

https://www.nafsa.org/people/cindy-friedman-md

  • Most recently, Dr. Friedman led the Cruise Ship Task Force for the COVID-19 response, helping navigate the safe disembarkation and repatriation of more than 260,000 passengers and crew, while providing critical support for the triage and medical evacuations of 41 COVID-19-affected cruise ships. This included the repatriation of hundreds of American passengers aboard the Diamond Princess in Japan, as well as the quarantine of passengers aboard the Grand Princess in California.
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20 minutes ago, twangster said:

Cindy Friedman is a medical epidemiologist who leads the CDC’s cruise ship team, or did back when she was speaking to the media nearly a year ago.

https://www.nafsa.org/people/cindy-friedman-md

  • Most recently, Dr. Friedman led the Cruise Ship Task Force for the COVID-19 response, helping navigate the safe disembarkation and repatriation of more than 260,000 passengers and crew, while providing critical support for the triage and medical evacuations of 41 COVID-19-affected cruise ships. This included the repatriation of hundreds of American passengers aboard the Diamond Princess in Japan, as well as the quarantine of passengers aboard the Grand Princess in California.

So a year ago they had a task force to get everyone off of cruise ships ... they don't seem to have moved on to putting them back on again though ...

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I think a lot will depend on vaccine documentation.

There are a number 'ifs' but ...

If I was assured everyone onboard had been vaccinated at least 2 weeks prior to boarding ... I would feel reasonably safe. That means crew, passengers, and all auxiliary personnel. Dock people, check in staff, port pilots, Coast Guard or anyone else that comes aboard for any reason.

That is a pretty tall order right there.

Then there is the issue of ports, excursions, getting on and off, where did you go, where have you been, were you exposed etc.

Hopefully the issue of everyone on board being vaccinated simply eliminates the risk or nearly so.

When I cruise,  I do not want to be locked in my cabin. I want to socialize, see things, dance, eat dinner and chat and so on. If I have worry about isolating myself every minute, what is the point?

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Traveler said:

Well maybe better news , have a look on the number of new cases in the US , seems its going down , and its not just in the US , something happened and it its not just the vaccine :

This graph is from the CDS site (you can also track on number of people that go the vaccine in the US)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

image.thumb.png.c20c399a2be25f3866513da591c68ec0.png

I agree. It’s amazing how numbers have gone down. At my hospital we had 65 COVID patients 3 weeks ago, today 6. Fingers crossed we don’t have another surge.

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4 hours ago, Traveler said:

Well maybe better news , have a look on the number of new cases in the US , seems its going down , and its not just in the US , something happened and it its not just the vaccine :

This graph is from the CDS site (you can also track on number of people that go the vaccine in the US)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

image.thumb.png.c20c399a2be25f3866513da591c68ec0.png

This is the most important graph for the resumption of cruising.  Many other countries have much better results.  However, they are not the cruising "capital of the world".  As the US gets under control (and they will do quickly with the rapid expansion of jabs in arms), starting cruising out of the US will get easier and easier.

Roll up your sleeves and then start packing swimwear, your clothes for "Formal Night" (or whatever they are calling it these days), and two bottles of wine.

?

Stay Safe, Stay Apart, Stay Connected,

Curt from Canada

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Vaccine news (spoiler they are working ? )

Another research was published iin Israel , this time with population of  1.2 Million  , 600 K of people that got the second shot already and 600 without vaccine. To make sure the population that were  selected were from the same age groups so if they took 100 K of the ages between 60 to 70 they compare it to 100K between the same ages that did not got the second shot yet and so on.

In the population that   got the vaccine there was 94%  infection decrease and even more important 92% decrease in severe illness (out of the people that got infected). 

As time will pass  we can have more and more accurate results but the "issue" is that there will be less and less people that did not got vaccinate to compare with ... currently 90% of the 60 + people in Israel already vaccinated.

 

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Great news, @Traveler! Now we need the next set of long-term data: How long does the immunity last, what percentage of reinfections are due to variants vs original strain, and how severe are reinfections?

With that data, we’ll get an idea of what kind of boosters are needed, and how often.

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17 hours ago, RCIfan1912 said:

I just read a study, I think by Israel that the Pfizer vaccine reduced the spread alone by 92%. This means, I think in my feeble mind that the vaccine keeps the infection so low that it can't spread. It can't replicate or spread. 

Those were symptomatic cases, so while amazing news it doesn't answer the question of to what degree asymptomatic spread is deterred. I think the only vaccine we have good info for is AZ, which IIRC showed no change in the rate of asymptomatic infection even while showing good reduction of symptomatic infection. Given most of the world is going to have to rely on that vaccine at least partially, I don't think we can be confident the vaccine (whoops, "virus") won't continue to spread.

Just going to drop one more time that this is all still great news. Another exposure to a coronavirus doesn't mean much if all you get is the sniffles and not a 7 night stay in your local hospital with lung scarring.

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Great news, but what about children and more importantly teens.

My boy will be 16 this year in May. So far our country has not approved vaccines for 16+ although Pfizer has recommended their vaccine for 16+

Europe will begin to vaccinate all adults beginning Q3 with vaccines exceed supply by 200% in Q4. This is guaranteed.

So we could look at Halloween cruises having been fully vaccinated. I presume the incidence of covid at that stage would be virtually 0 so a negative covid test for non vaccinated kids should be an option I hope. 

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The smart people here can correct me here on my thinking when it comes to kids and vaccination. If all the adults on a cruise are vaccinated and this virus doesn't effect kids as bad as adults wouldn't it be OK for them to cruise without being vaccinated? The adults couldn't get sick or severely sick and thus there couldn't be a big break out on a cruise. Flawed thinking? 

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57 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

The smart people here can correct me here on my thinking when it comes to kids and vaccination. If all the adults on a cruise are vaccinated and this virus doesn't effect kids as bad as adults wouldn't it be OK for them to cruise without being vaccinated? The adults couldn't get sick or severely sick and thus there couldn't be a big break out on a cruise. Flawed thinking? 

A couple of concerns:

1) I do not think how "smart" people are these days counts for much.  The data and information about the virus changes frequently.  Therefore being right today, almost guarantees that you will be wrong tomorrow. ?

2) Cruise lines have been vilified for decades that they are breeding grounds for disease (I do not believe this, but perception is more important than reality).  One positive test on a plane or train is a footnote. One positive test on a cruise ship sends regulators into "panic" mode.  The cruise industry is at the mercy of public opinion and can not risk even small outbreaks on ships.  They will probably be very cautious through 2021 and even into part of 2022.  Not because they want to, but because they are in survival mode.

Stay Safe, Stay Apart, Stay Connected,

Curt from Canada

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2 hours ago, RCIfan1912 said:

The smart people here can correct me here on my thinking when it comes to kids and vaccination. If all the adults on a cruise are vaccinated and this virus doesn't effect kids as bad as adults wouldn't it be OK for them to cruise without being vaccinated? The adults couldn't get sick or severely sick and thus there couldn't be a big break out on a cruise. Flawed thinking? 

I believe yes, but I also think I'm pessimistic about a COVID free future, meaning in my view the virus is here to stay. The best vaccines (mRNA for now, though Sputnik and Novavax are close and may be just as good) seem to knock down OG COVID and the B117 variant by about 90% across the board (researchers have even started postulating this is the case for asymptomatic spread).

Buuuuut, there is almost no feasible solution that gets the mRNA vaccines into every arm, and even so we know there are some variants they aren't as effective against. We also know the threshold for herd immunity is probably north of 80% given how transmissable it is. All of that taken together, to me, means there will be dry tinder, so to speak, even on a fully vaccinated cruise ship that skews older (consider that a 90% reduction in hospitalization and death means a 60 year old has roughly the same relative risk as an unvaccinated 20 year old, which is still 2x higher than the youngest children). I think any solution that hinges on a perfect performance in mitigation of viral spread on a cruise ship is going to include the full gamut of social distancing protocol with or without vaccination for all adults, and can only set sail when the epidemiological data suggests virus transmission is low (which, since most experts now believe we're headed for seasonality could mean no fall or winter cruising)

Orr... We learn to live with it.

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We don't need it to be eradicated altogether, that would be nice but we don't necessarily need that. We just need it to stop spreading as efficiently as it does or to a super low level really, people not to be hospitalized and dying from this virus. Then we can sail, we are headed there ever so freaking slowly. 

On another very, very frustrating note. The delays of the vaccine excuse my language but are pissing me off to no end. Every single day there is a story on delays in all of them. Johnson and johnson only has a few million ready to go when approved. I mean really! Really! Ford can build an F-150 every 30 minutes but these clowns can't manufacture a freaking vile of vaccine? Really? Sorry just venting on that. We should have so much vaccine by now there should be no rules on who and when you can get a shot. 

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16 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

We don't need it to be eradicated altogether, that would be nice but we don't necessarily need that. We just need it to stop spreading as efficiently as it does or to a super low level really, people not to be hospitalized and dying from this virus. Then we can sail, we are headed there ever so freaking slowly. 

On another very, very frustrating note. The delays of the vaccine excuse my language but are pissing me off to no end. Every single day there is a story on delays in all of them. Johnson and johnson only has a few million ready to go when approved. I mean really! Really! Ford can build an F-150 every 30 minutes but these clowns can't manufacture a freaking vile of vaccine? Really? Sorry just venting on that. We should have so much vaccine by now there should be no rules on who and when you can get a shot. 

Ford can build a truck quickly now but that wasn't always the case.  It's taken decades to get there.

As soon as word of a vaccine was hinted a timeline was projected.  It seems to me we are on that timeline being two months from the first shot went into an arm.  No one estimated broad availability in February 2021.  I understand it's frustrating but it takes time to make a vaccine.  It's not simply a chemical concoction like mixing your favorite sports drink. 

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We've learned recently that Crystal Cruises (owned by Genting Hong Kong) is going to require C-19 Vaccinations to board. No exceptions including for children under 16.

In response to questions from others I converse with on these subjects about the legality or constitutionality of requiring vaccinations to engage in certain activities (travel, leisure, things like getting a drivers license or similar government required documentation) I found this:

In the US it is legal and constitutional to require vaccination in a public health emergency (we are in one) Jacobson v Massachusetts, 197 - US11 (1905).  https://www.oyez.org/cases/1900-1940/197us11  

Anecdotally, the Israeli government, that leads the globe in percent vaccinations of their citizens (about 40%; 70% in over 65s) is messaging that to participate in the reopening of the state that is going to follow in the next few months, you'll have to get vaccinated or "you will be left behind."

Even though it is entirely reasonable and should be required to get vaccinated if one wants to return to many activities we enjoyed pre-pandemic, especially those involving congregate settings (sporting events, concerts, cruising), I'm not confident that will happen in the US. Doing so would be a political nightmare regardless of the correctness of doing it. Political side shows involving questions of equity would surely develop and cloud sensible thinking about good public health policy.

Frankly and on the other hand, I don't see how the cruise industry can resume operations without requiring it of passengers. Certainly they can ...... through a complex and burdensome set of protocols that continue to be unclear and of what we do know of what they might be, are expensive and highly unpopular...... but why not just require vaccinations.

That the CDC has apparently not moved forward on providing guidance to the industry on what the lines need to do to start sailing again suggests to me that they are considering a directive that requires passengers and crew to be vaccinated. They will probably abandon the crazy stuff they ginned up after the "No Sail" order expired in October, 2020. That boarder closures globally are continuing and only being eased in countries that demand proof of vaccination before entry suggests to me that health authorities that ultimately determine who can visit their countries via airports or sea ports will demand the same for cruise ships wishing to port at facilities where they have the authority to control access.

We're in uncharted territory with the current SARS-2 pandemic wrt how you go on with life given the likely continued global presence of the virus at some level of circulation, and for a long time to come. Confounding factors include the huge increase in pre-pandemic mobility people enjoyed compared to, say, the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. I don't see governments critically thinking about how to move forward and the stymied cruise, travel and leisure industry in general is a reflection of that inaction.

My take is that the cruise industry should proactively declare they will require vaccinations for passengers and crew in order sail. Next, they should file an injunction with the appropriate federal court having jurisdiction over such matters asking for relief from the CDC's unfair and discriminatory strangle hold on their business operations given the industries requirement for cruise passengers and crews to be vaccinated. Ask the court that the date for the start of said relief  be based on R0 (the accepted measure of circulating virus) to be < 1.0 in a US port facility from which the line wishes to embark.  From that point, it should start working collectively to negotiate with foreign health authorities in ports they wish to call on. Start by stating they will only do so at ports where the local R0 value is < 1.0, health authorities approve a port call and will disembark only passengers or crew that have been vaccinated AND have received a negative RAPID C-19 Test result in the 24h preceding the port call.

I'm ready to cruise but am increasingly frustrated by the lack of critical thinking on how to go about doing that at a time certain, in the SARS-2 pandemic environment. We've waited long enough. Too long. A safe to sail date in late May or early June is possible. Governments have unfairly hobbled and caused massive losses in an industry that provides billions of dollars in economic activity and millions of jobs globally. Vaccines to prevent serious illness, death and transmission are here. It can be done.   

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37 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

On another very, very frustrating note. The delays of the vaccine excuse my language but are pissing me off to no end. Every single day there is a story on delays in all of them. Johnson and johnson only has a few million ready to go when approved. I mean really! Really! Ford can build an F-150 every 30 minutes but these clowns can't manufacture a freaking vile of vaccine? Really? Sorry just venting on that. We should have so much vaccine by now there should be no rules on who and when you can get a shot. 

There are multiple factors involved in successfully manufacturing vaccines at scale. The risks to vaccines into arms get broken down in detail in the article at the link below. The author provides ways to mitigate the risks and bottle necks. They can be overcome but it's not like flipping a light switch on and suddenly billions of vaccine doses are rolling off the assembly line. Getting to scale, though, is doable. I've got my fingers crossed that the Biden administration understands this and is publicly low balling goals and talking about delays because it's better to do that and resolve delays and exceed goals than to fail and cast doubt about success.

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-fu...ccine-rollout#

This link is to an interview with UCLA MD Virologist done by an MD interviewer from Johns Hopkins. What's interesting about it is the explanation of the spike proteins in the typical viruses hounding us today, including SARS-2, and how these RNA viruses mutate and why it is so important to bust our asses to get COVID vaccine in arms. I think it can be done and a lot earlier (late spring/early summer) than some pessimists think (late fall)......and I think Fauci is purposefully raising vaccine concerns and low balling. There's a strong argument that the negativity and long list of caveats coming from scientists, medical professionals and journalist writing about it is affecting willingness to get the shot ..... not good.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/91026

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To add an anecdote @JeffB, conversations I've had with friends in my age group (mid 30's) who are close to the end of the line for vaccines have started to trend toward this doom and gloom version of the future and are approaching a nihilism that I don't share but do understand... Namely if it is really as bad as Fauci et. al. say with regard to variants, then why bother continuing with caution until their group comes up for vaccination. One friend of mine is particularly hung up on something Fauci said which boils down to "once we've got 80% of the population vaccinated we can talk start going back to normal", which is a mathematical impossibility until mid-way through next year, and hinges on the idea that the vaccines we have are effective (which other experts seem more than willing to express doubt about). Some people are looking at the year they've sunk into this while listening to statements like that, and essentially saying "firetruck it", as my grandmother would say.

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