Just Announced On NCL !!

[princevaliantus]

I really don't think that even December will happen at this point!! RCG should be making an announcement soon as history has shown.

[PPPJJ-GCVAB]

Guess we will have to "Stay Tuned"...just a matter of time for RCG to join in with their own cancellations .   Heartbreaking!!!!

[twangster]

The National Hockey League is posting about cruise ships?  Slow off season I guess...

[JeffB]

Twangster ...... heh.

So, yeah, NCL has cancelled all it's cruises within its brands to include Oceania and Regent Seven Seas through November. A signal of things to come for RCCL? Could be and the biggest reason why RCCL may follow is the connection of NCL and RCCL to the Safe-To-Sail Commission's Report and the Healthy Sail Panel serving both lines and the cruise industry in general.

As much as I believe the public health risks for the virus are being over-played and the cruise industry could safely return to operations with layered mitigation measures, I think Twangster's view described in another thread that describes the political risk to the Trump administration of promoting a return to cruising is going to snuff out cruising in the reminder of 2020. A lame duck administration though could do all sorts of weird stuff. While the chances of a return to cruising just got a little less likely with the NCL announcement, I'm not ruling out a restart just yet. 

 Norwegian could be recognizing that it cannot resume operations in November with October being unavailable to accomplish the logistics of getting even just a few ships operational. That might be a business decision applicable to NCL but not other lines including MSC, Carnival and RCCL, both MSC and one of Carnivals' brands, Costa, already operating in Europe.

We'll know soon enough.   

[bigpete]

45 minutes ago, twangster said:

The National Hockey League is posting about cruise ships?  Slow off season I guess...

as a huge hockey fan I got really excited when i saw NHL!!

[Andrew72681]

2 hours ago, twangster said:

The National Hockey League is posting about cruise ships?  Slow off season I guess...

Would make sense this time. They were able to go through the entire playoff preceding without a single case popping up.  

[cruisellama]

Based upon what Mr. Fain said in the blog - it appears restart will begin with short duration runs so any of the 7 day cruises out there are not going in the near term.  Maybe we'll see some short holiday runs around the end of the year.  But would agree 2020 is toast.

[DublinFC]

With the meeting at the White House being pushed back I am not surprised.   I am really hoping, for own personal gain(selfish), cruising is back for a few months before our April sailing.  I would like to see how the experience is and kinks worked out before we sail.  

[CruisinForABruisin]

Good on NCL for not dragging their customers along when their sailings were less than 30 days out.

[KWong]

3 hours ago, twangster said:

The National Hockey League is posting about cruise ships?  Slow off season I guess...

Keep Bettman far away from the cruise industry, please and thank you. 

[Scooter6251]

7 minutes ago, CruisinForABruisin said:

Good on NCL for not dragging their customers along when their sailings were less than 30 days out.

I certainly agree with you.  We're scheduled Nov 1 and I'm sure that won't happen.  But it's just over 3 weeks and it's ridiculous that they keep avoiding making it official.  And people with Thanksgiving cruises probably need to change their plans.  It's very unfair and shows a big lack of customer consideration when I think Royal's customers are some of the most loyal in the world.

[princevaliantus]

6 minutes ago, Scooter6251 said:

I certainly agree with you.  We're scheduled Nov 1 and I'm sure that won't happen.  But it's just over 3 weeks and it's ridiculous that they keep avoiding making it official.  And people with Thanksgiving cruises probably need to change their plans.  It's very unfair and shows a big lack of customer consideration when I think Royal's customers are some of the most loyal in the world.

100% Spot On!! I knew this was going to happen. Like many, I cancelled everything into next year and should something give by year end, a last minute booking would happen. Otherwise, it certainly looks like 2020 is a bust!!

[Andrew72681]

46 minutes ago, KWong said:

Keep Bettman far away from the cruise industry, please and thank you. 

Don’t fret, just like the Stanley cup when cruises start back up it’ll be US only

[JeffB]

1 hour ago, cruisellama said:

Based upon what Mr. Fain said in the blog - it appears restart will begin with short duration runs so any of the 7 day cruises out there are not going in the near term.  Maybe we'll see some short holiday runs around the end of the year.  But would agree 2020 is toast.

I didn't read it that way .......

NCL is in a different business position than RCCL. NCL was cash strapped when COVID hit and warned investors they didn't have enough cash to meet future obligations over the next 12 months in April. In order to conserve cash NCL cold stored most of their fleet. It takes a month or longer to bring a vessel out of cold storage - at least that's what I've heard. Warm storage takes about 2 weeks.

If cruising doesn't resume within the next 90d, NCL will probably declare bankruptcy. That doesn't mean they will go away but it will be very hard for them to recover in a post-Covid cruise industry that is going to be cut-throat competitive when it comes to scrambling for market share.

In the video that Matt posted Fain said that RCCL was ready to restart, could be restarted safely and European cruise ship operations are demonstrating it can be done. All they are waiting for is the CDC to remove the No-Sail-Order. It was encouraging to hear that "dialogue continues between the CDC, The Safe Sail Panel and the WH Covid Task Force."

With regard to the length of cruises that will be "toast" in 2020, a restart with a "short cruise" would be a cruise of less than 10d and with limited ports of call. That was the industry word a short while ago. Not only are shorter cruises likely to have fewer health related problems, they are also generally more profitable. I don't know where the cut-off point is between, say, 3-5 or 7d cruises wrt profitability but there was a proliferation of 3-5d cruises that popped up a few years ago and seemed to grow in number. I read that the increased number of short cruises pre-Covid was due to their popularity and spending habits of those that booked them. Carnival's operations from North America dominated in scheduling and marketing those shorter cruises although RCCL and Celebrity had a few of them on their older ships.

[cruisellama]

3 minutes ago, JeffB said:

I didn't read it that way .......

NCL is in a different business position than RCCL. NCL was cash strapped when COVID hit and warned investors they didn't have enough cash to meet future obligations over the next 12 months in April. In order to conserve cash NCL cold stored most of their fleet. It takes a month or longer to bring a vessel out of cold storage - at least that's what I've heard. Warm storage takes about 2 weeks.

If cruising doesn't resume within the next 90d, NCL will probably declare bankruptcy. That doesn't mean they will go away but it will be very hard for them to recover in a post-Covid cruise industry that is going to be cut-throat competitive when it comes to scrambling for market share.

In the video that Matt posted Fain said that RCCL was ready to restart, could be restarted safely and European cruise ship operations are demonstrating it can be done. All they are waiting for is the CDC to remove the No-Sail-Order. It was encouraging to hear that "dialogue continues between the CDC, The Safe Sail Panel and the WH Covid Task Force."

With regard to the length of cruises that will be "toast" in 2020, a restart with a "short cruise" would be a cruise of less than 10d and with limited ports of call. That was the industry word a short while ago. Not only are shorter cruises likely to have fewer health related problems, they are also generally more profitable. I don't know where the cut-off point is between, say, 3-5 or 7d cruises wrt profitability but there was a proliferation of 3-5d cruises that popped up a few years ago and seemed to grow in number. I read that the increased number of short cruises pre-Covid was due to their popularity and spending habits of those that booked them. Carnival's operations from North America dominated in scheduling and marketing those shorter cruises although RCCL and Celebrity had a few of them on their older ships.

Thank you for making the glass half full.   I was seeing it as half empty.   Mainly because the panel plan still needs an approval by the CDC and after that, a whole lot of things have to be put into place, training being one of those things.  Of course, it could be happening now and we're not hearing about it.   Maybe Matt has some intel.

 

[JeffB]

56 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Thank you for making the glass half full.   I was seeing it as half empty.   Mainly because the panel plan still needs an approval by the CDC and after that, a whole lot of things have to be put into place, training being one of those things.  Of course, it could be happening now and we're not hearing about it.   Maybe Matt has some intel.

 

A small, niggling point ...... the CDC has no regulatory powers. They advise on matters involving disease, disease spread and how to avoid or contain epidemics and pandemics in the US. They are an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) - a Cabinet level branch with a Secretary that reports to the Executive Branch. 

When the No-Sail-Order was issued based on the CDC's recommendations, that was consistent with HHS's thinking that there was an urgent need to control entry to the US from across boarders, via airports and cruise ports alike. Therefore, it was codified (became law) under the powers of the Executive branch. The Department of Homeland Security was directed to  implement its provisions and then enforce them through the US Coast Guard.

This is important to understanding how and why VP Pence, acting as the Chairman of the Pandemic Advisory Panel within the Executive Branch of US government can dictate when the No-Sail-Order will expire. He's the guy that the cruise industry needs to convince that they can resume cruise operations safely and are going to go under if the No-Sail-Order isn't rescinded.  I'd guess their goal is to get Pence to allow them to cruise starting in November - order will expire October 31st - to allow modest expansion of cruise ships and itineraries over the popular and potentially profitable Holiday season.

You know that I will say this is a no-brainer for Pence when he is allowed to step away from the public health harangue coming from the CDC and bring the weight of the economic consequences that COVID has had on the travel industry into his decision making process. I'm not saying the CDC is full of it. They're trying to do a good job in the face of a president who is dismissive of the virus and it's public health impact. While, since he's had it, that might change, he's still a man all about the money. The economic cost to the cruise and travel industry of COVID has been catastrophic. He knows this. That dynamic hasn't been present to date in the decision making process about cruising - it's been all about what a mess that lash-up was when passengers and crew came down with COVID. We're well past that now.

Pence may have gotten side tracked a bit with Trump's COVID diagnosis but it looks like he's going to make a quick recovery and will begin boasting about it soon ........ that could also be a substantial positive in that he tends to be a contrarian just to be one. One could conclude from that that he might be more politically prone to green-light the cruise industry even though that is politically risky due to the media's irresponsible, dire COVID consequences narrative that they are putting out there for public consumption as false a narrative as that is.    

[cruisellama]

Its the "side track" you mention that I thought broke some momentum.   Really need the industry-WH meeting to happen to grind down the speed bumps.  I believe the recommendation that came out of the Health Panel are more stringent  that what we're seeing in Europe.  The CDC's blanket statement at the end of the month was a continuation of what had happened in March-April and lacked any new learning that occurred.  I thought the CDC statement  displayed a cruise industry prejudice.

[JeffB]

4 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

 I thought the CDC statement  displayed a cruise industry prejudice.

Possibly but I'd say it's more about the CDC in the faces of Robert Redfield, Director of the CDC, Doctors Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci, all of them very publicly and frequently appearing in interviews with main-stream media types, protecting the ground they've staked out on this. These people do believe in what they've put out there, none of it particularly flawed. The politics start to have an impact when a willfully combative president throws them under the bus. That is going to prompt defensive responses from these people who have reputations to protect.

Pence can side step all of that if he handles it correctly and if there is anyone who can, it's him ...... assuming he's given the president's blessing to handle it.

[KWong]

19 hours ago, Andrew72681 said:

Don’t fret, just like the Stanley cup when cruises start back up it’ll be US only

I live in the heart of Leafs Nation, and it's never not funny when they fail to win.

[bigpete]

4 minutes ago, KWong said:

I live in the heart of Leafs Nation, and it's never not funny when they fail to win.

This comment is the best.

[twangster]

17 hours ago, cruisellama said:

I thought the CDC statement  displayed a cruise industry prejudice.

I honestly believe if the CDC had the power and could have it's way we would all be locked down in our homes.

They are doing what they believe will prevent spread.  From a purely public health perspective they are correct, locking everyone in their homes and shutting down most businesses like China did will temporarily slow spread.  

I am in no way suggesting we should do that, rather I am simply recognizing that extreme approach would temporarily slow spread.  Given that vacation travel is non-essential the CDC hasn't been challenged with respect to the cruise ship lockdown until recently when the Corona Virus Task Force stepped in.

The CDC doesn't have direct power or control over places like Disney World.  If they did have the power DW would also be shut down (until the task force stepped in).  

So I don't see the action of the CDC as a prejudice against a specific industry.   I don't like it but I also recognize they may be saving the industry from itself.  Absent of the protocols the industry has been forced to adopt ships would have sailed without all of these protocols and the damage to the industry would have been catastrophic.  

The industry has proven itself incapable of self regulating which is why the VSP exists today (Vessel Sanitation Program).  You can't fault the CDC for not trusting the industry when it comes to operating during a pandemic.  The industry brought this on itself.  

[twangster]

12 minutes ago, KWong said:

I live in the heart of Leafs Nation, and it's never not funny when they fail to win.

When the playoffs were announced somewhere on this forum I posted that the Leafs might have a chance this year.   They quickly proved they are still the Leafs, even in a bubble.

[KWong]

3 minutes ago, twangster said:

When the playoffs were announced somewhere on this forum I posted that the Leafs might have a chance this year.   They quickly proved they are still the Leafs, even in a bubble.

There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes, and the Leafs underachieving.

[Lovetocruise2002]

It's ok...Jason Spezza has unfinished business with the Leafs!  Cue new saviour...

[cruisellama]

27 minutes ago, twangster said:

I honestly believe if the CDC had the power and could have it's way we would all be locked down in our homes.

They are doing what they believe will prevent spread.  From a purely public health perspective they are correct, locking everyone in their homes and shutting down most businesses like China did will temporarily slow spread.  

I am in no way suggesting we should do that, rather I am simply recognizing that extreme approach would temporarily slow spread.  Given that vacation travel is non-essential the CDC hasn't been challenged with respect to the cruise ship lockdown until recently when the Corona Virus Task Force stepped in.

The CDC doesn't have direct power or control over places like Disney World.  If they did have the power DW would also be shut down (until the task force stepped in).  

So I don't see the action of the CDC as a prejudice against a specific industry.   I don't like it but I also recognize they may be saving the industry from itself.  Absent of the protocols the industry has been forced to adopt ships would have sailed without all of these protocols and the damage to the industry would have been catastrophic.  

The industry has proven itself incapable of self regulating which is why the VSP exists today (Vessel Sanitation Program).  You can't fault the CDC for not trusting the industry when it comes to operating during a pandemic.  The industry brought this on itself.  

"Accordingly, and consistent with 42 CFR §§ 70.2, 71.31(b), and 71.32(b), the Director of CDC (“Director”) continues to find that cruise ship travel exacerbates the global spread of COVID-19, that the scope of this pandemic is inherently and necessarily a problem that is international and interstate in nature, and such transmission has not been controlled sufficiently by the cruise ship industry or individual State or local health authorities." 

While the CDC amended the original order, they retain this language in the order.   So how is this possible since cruising has been halted since March?  There was residual issues with crew repatriation (fixed), but how are cruise lines continuing to add to the problem?  Lazy bureaucrats who have not considered (or read)  the changes proposed by the industry.  Which I assert is bias against an industry. 

 

 

[twangster]

25 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

"Accordingly, and consistent with 42 CFR §§ 70.2, 71.31(b), and 71.32(b), the Director of CDC (“Director”) continues to find that cruise ship travel exacerbates the global spread of COVID-19, that the scope of this pandemic is inherently and necessarily a problem that is international and interstate in nature, and such transmission has not been controlled sufficiently by the cruise ship industry or individual State or local health authorities." 

While the CDC amended the original order, they retain this language in the order.   So how is this possible since cruising has been halted since March?  There was residual issues with crew repatriation (fixed), but how are cruise lines continuing to add to the problem?  Lazy bureaucrats who have not considered (or read)  the changes proposed by the industry.  Which I assert is bias against an industry. 

 

 

The CDC is well aware it has no control over domestic areas where state and local public health departments are in control.  They know they only have direct control over cruise ships which fall under federal authority.  They are grasping, trying to retain the control that the White House is threatening to remove from them.   It's a power struggle.  If they lose this power and authority they could lose it long term once we are out of the pandemic.  Imagine a future when the VSP is gone, eliminated by a panel where the CDC merely has a seat at the table.

They are flexing their muscle trying to retain control.  Any other administration would have backed away and stayed out of it.  Given the tendency of the current administration to be unpredictable and not adhere to conventional political thinking the CDC is trying to preemptively prove it has legal authority as they play chicken with the administration.  

If the CDC had authority over theme parks they would be mentioned as well.   This isn't prejudice, they are desperately trying to retain control.  It's a warning trying to get the administration to back off.

[Andrew72681]

1 hour ago, KWong said:

I live in the heart of Leafs Nation, and it's never not funny when they fail to win.

One of the twitter account that pops up In my feed from time to time is @leafslastcup. The best part is that they also keep track of days since the David Ayres debacle.