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Filling the vacuum created by scrapped ships


RCVoyager

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It will be interesting to see how the cruise lines fill the vacuum that is being created by scrapped ships.  San Juan is our favorite port of origin.  We like both Royal and Carnival (on their newer ships).  We haven't considered Carnival out of San Juan for several years because the Fantasy (definitely not a new ship) is the ship Carnival ported in San Juan.  Now the Fantasy is scrapped.  Will Carnival put a nicer ship there or abandon (at least temporarily) San Juan as a home port?  Any thoughts from those who follow closer than me?

I look at cruisetimetables.com all the time.  My guess is that the cruise lines will be reworking their schedules completely coming out of this, and that anything scheduled in 2021 is subject to change... that's even assuming the cruise lines will be running at all in 2021.

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Carnival historically put ships in certain places because they had "extra" old ships with no place to go.  They didn't want to sell those ships and give a competitor like Bahamas Paradise Lines more lower berths to compete with Carnival.  Often what they did was place these ships in certain markets that can't normally sustain a newer or bigger ship.  It's much easier to turn a profit on an older ship that's paid for with only operating costs to cover in order to reach profitability.   

This practice became untenable when ships had to be put into layup since you can't just park a ship like a car and walk away from it for a year.  Consequently they scrapped some of their oldest and smallest.  

Once cruising resumes I don't see Carnival backfilling those ships just to operate from a specific market.  They know where they made more money and where they made less money for whatever the reasons.  

Royal has long placed it ships where they make more money that left certain markets such as California without service.  That's not to say they couldn't turn a profit in California simply that they can make more money with that same ship elsewhere.  With Carnival operating a (slightly) smaller fleet they will do the same.  If they can make more money in San Juan than they can in Alabama, Jacksonville or Charleston that is where they will move a ship to and from.  

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19 hours ago, twangster said:

Carnival historically put ships in certain places because they had "extra" old ships with no place to go.  They didn't want to sell those ships and give a competitor like Bahamas Paradise Lines more lower berths to compete with Carnival.  Often what they did was place these ships in certain markets that can't normally sustain a newer or bigger ship.  It's much easier to turn a profit on an older ship that's paid for with only operating costs to cover in order to reach profitability.   

This practice became untenable when ships had to be put into layup since you can't just park a ship like a car and walk away from it for a year.  Consequently they scrapped some of their oldest and smallest.  

Once cruising resumes I don't see Carnival backfilling those ships just to operate from a specific market.  They know where they made more money and where they made less money for whatever the reasons.  

Royal has long placed it ships where they make more money that left certain markets such as California without service.  That's not to say they couldn't turn a profit in California simply that they can make more money with that same ship elsewhere.  With Carnival operating a (slightly) smaller fleet they will do the same.  If they can make more money in San Juan than they can in Alabama, Jacksonville or Charleston that is where they will move a ship to and from.  

I appreciate your perspective on this.  I was hoping maybe the Breeze or Magic would be assigned to San Juan.  There are so many ships going out of FL these days and only a few out of San Juan.  We really like the Southern Caribbean itineraries and you can't do those in 7 days out of FL.  There is no doubt the cruise lines charge a little less out of San Juan which the passenger would generally spend on air to get there.  Makes your view make sense from a profit standpoint.

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