Cruising in December 2020 on Celebrity South America.

[Josephml1]

Hi everyone.

I have a cruise on celebrity to South America on December 2020.

But I not sure if its better to just postpone this cruise to same date in Dec 2021

I know is a random act and no one truly knows.  I am crossing fingers for a vaccine and need a Vacation

But what are your thoughts?

 

Thank you all.

[JeffB]

You have plenty of time to decide what to do ...... assuming you want to pay the final payment which will come due in September. You can cancel or lift and shift (L&S) as it becomes clearer in the months ahead what South American health misters will allow for travelers with US passports, what the CDC is going to do with its no-sail-order and what Celebrity will do with its itineraries after November 15th. My guess is that if you cancel and re-book, you are going to find that the same cruise in 2021 is going to be more costly .... that's why L&S is a good option for you. You can also cancel up to 48h in advance for any reason in accordance with the cruise with confidence program. Details here: https://www.celebritycruises.com/cruise-with-confidence

A couple of other thoughts. I have a 5n, New Year's cruise booked on Celebrity Infinity out of Miami on 12/27/20. Final Payment will be due on September 19th I think it is. I have either taken FCCs (1 cruise cancelled by Celebrity) or L&S'ed 3 other Celebrity cruises from 2020 into 2021 ..... one in March, one in August, and one in October. I still have one FCC  that is yet to be applied. I'm watching key indicators that will point to Celebrity sailing after 11/15/20 which could include my 12/27/20 New Years cruise. The shorter cruises, possibly on the smaller Millennium or Edge class ships,  have a higher likelihood of sailing before longer itineraries on the larger Silhouette class ships do. I suspect yours is at least 10n, right?

If trends are unfavorable before my final payment is due on that NY cruise, I'll not pay it and cancel. If trends look favorable, I'll make the final payment and at the appropriate time, with Celebrity looking as though they will be canceling everything for 2020, cancel that booking and request a refund. That's because continuing to tie up more money with Celebrity through FCCs or L&S that I already have on their books when the future of cruising is still very unclear doesn't make a lot of sense.   

[JLMoran]

A couple of cruise lines have already canceled all cruises through Dec 15 or the end of the year. I would be very surprised if any cruises at all take place this year in any country beside the small handful of test sailings that have already happened; I will be even more surprised if citizens of the USA are allowed into any country of embarkation by that time.

I learned (almost) the hard way that if you do the L&S after final payment on the original sailing, you will be subject to whatever cancellation penalties were applicable at that time if you then cancel the L&S'd sailing. So I am advising anyone who asks about doing L&S to do it before their final payment date if they haven't already reached it. I assume  in your case that date is some time in September, or maybe just a couple of weeks from now, depending on how early in December you sail. So don't hesitate if you decide to L&S, get the ball rolling to give it the few days needed to be processed.

[Josephml1]

Hi, very Useful information and advice thanks for Sharing. 
 

my cruise is 15 nights, departing From Chile; December 20, 2020. 
 

yes the final payment its in September. 
 

thank you very much. 

[JeffB]

Quote

........ I would be very surprised if any cruises at all take place this year in any country beside the small handful of test sailings that have already happened; I will be even more surprised if citizens of the USA are allowed into any country of embarkation by that time......

I would agree with you here ..... under the present circumstance. That could change and quickly. The FDA just last week approved the use of Saliva screening tests for SARS-CoV-2 infections. This category of tests will slightly improve test to results time but these particular saliva tests still require machine processing in labs with the attendant delays in processing time. That's not fast enough to contain the virus. To do that requires quick ID of those infected and isolation then tracking contacts. The just approved saliva tests will work for groups in a bubble like sports teams or cruise ship crews being prepared for a sailing but in regions or states were community spread is high? No. Still too slow.

 Spot tests (think like a home pregnancy test) are needed to quickly ID a contagious person, isolate them and track contacts. Such products exist but the FDA won't approve them for a lot of different reasons none of them particularly good. The current testing strategy is based on the RT-PCR test. Its a diagnostic test, the gold standard but obtaining useful results for Public Health purposes, e.g., limiting the spread of a virus, it takes too long. South Korea used a combination of rapid tests and diagnostic tests right out of the gate and had a centrally controlled process to do that. The virus in SK is essentially controlled there.

Enter US based manufactures such as e25bio that have developed rapid, on the spot tests that produce results at the point of care in < 15 minutes. There are others out there too. You want to go inside Walmart, go to a bar or restaurant, attend a sporting event .... board a cruise ship!!!, you get tested. If you're negative, you go in, if you're positive, you don't and you go home and isolate for 10d. This sort of rapid testing is not diagnostic, you save those for hospital settings where it's important to be nearly 100% right about a diagnosis. A rapid test simply identifies infected people at the point they are most contagious. It's Simple. How it works takes too long to explain and this post is long enough. Testing like this could be done regionally or by state, almost right now, like in FL or anywhere else where community spread is present. 

Longer term, as in the next 60-90 days, and to manufacture the tests to scale for wide distribution and use, it would take a paradigm shift in the CDC described,  FDA mandated, US testing strategy away from RT-PCR testing for public health purposes, leaving it for hospital settings, and towards rapid testing to contagion. That approach is much better suited for the critical use as a public health tool designed to contain viral spread. That will require the political will to do this as well as to fund manufacturing and distribution at a war-time scale. After all, this is a war.

Experts in this area think once manufacture and distribution is sufficient for full scale testing in the US, the virus could be contained in this country in 3-4 weeks. If the US started using this kind of rapid test right now and regionally where community spread is the highest, we'd get a head start on that. Maybe then, global health ministers will et American tourists in thier countries. What are we waiting for. 

[cruisellama]

Carnival dropped their South American cruises for rest of year; however, are becoming more bullish on Caribbean restart in Nov.   I believe they submitted their plan to CDC.  Royal hasn't yet, but they also just hired a new gov't relationship executive who will probably walk it over to them.

 

[JeffB]

I'm booked on Celebrity Infinity departing Miami on 12/28 for a 5n New Years Cruise. I'd like to think that cruise will go - port calls are Key West and Cozumel. The issue that stands in the way is the drum beat of negativity from just about any source you want to name - public health authorities or the lay press, the press much worse than PH officials. What this creates is a wave of political pressures that ignores COVID facts and appropriate risk assessments and raises both PR and liability issues. In the last two weeks, a rapid test that provides results in 15 minutes at the point of care and doesn't cost much has become available. The logistics of getting them in place to be used by cruise lines is just one more logistics problem to solve for the lines. It's an obstacle, however, it could be one of the keys to resuming cruising.

In comes the politics.....if you've been watching the news, colleges that welcomed students back on campus in mid-August are getting hammered by the media as a result of increased case numbers. Some Caribbean destinations that opened to tourists, quickly closed again when new cases popped up. I can make a strong case that only using new case numbers to guide Public Health policy is highly misleading. One cannot logically assess COVID risks by using only this data in isolation but that is what's happening. College administrators reacting to the pressure are ignoring (1) the impact of age stratification on disease burden, (2) multiple other metrics (ED visits, hospital admissions, etc) in assessing risks of serious illness - disease burden - from COVID.  Countries are closing ports and airports and stopping tourism. Colleges are ending in-person learning, suspending sports and sending kids home which makes no sense at all but that's what the public seems to expect with those expectations fanned by the media.

I've heard all the arguments against the case that you can continue any endeavor you choose to select, like cruising or going to school, protect the vulnerable and meanwhile keep the virus in check by simple masking and distancing. It always comes down to the micro, personal level, e.g., I don't want MY kids to go to school, get infected and come home to infect two generations of family members living under one roof. That argument fails because (1) it is rare occurrence to begin with and (2) it doesn't account for the upside social and economic benefits and the very low risk across all age groups when viewed at a macro level of serious illness secondary to infection. The addition of rapid testing - something, when it is warranted, that allows ID of asymptomatic COVID carriers to a 95% certainty level is a reality. That dramatically changes the risk calculus both on the macro level (the cruise industry in general and as it is viewed by the CDC) and the micro level (your own personal risk).  Finally, if you don't like your chances, don't go until you do.     

[cruisellama]

I'm betting South American cruising gets deferred just like Australia just was pushed back.   If cruising comes back to our hemisphere in the remnants of 2020, guessing the Caribbean  has highest Pgo.