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With respect to everyone having differing opinions on when and how cruising should resume, does anyone think the cruise industry generally figures they get one and only one shot at a return or do you think the industries believes they can make adjustments on the fly?  

It also seems hard to get a consensus on what people would consider "successful" in terms of the result of the first few cruises.  Is the industry being held hostage to unobtainable results?  

Would love to hear your feedback.  

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34 minutes ago, Sharla said:

They'll have to make adjustments as they go. They will have a plan A, B, C, D (and so on) in place. I do believe they will have thought of most scenarios before they sail again but there's no way it's a one size fits all kind of thing. 

I'm in your camp.  Many new procedure require testing and tuning.  From embarkation, through excursions, to disembarkation.   Need to start small and build up until there's confidence at all levels.   

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There is going to need to be a good deal of flexibility on everyone’s part (and patience) for a return to cruising to be successful.  There will have to be a combination of plans and objectives.  The plans need to be clear and well thought out but still have flexibility but the objectives, although clear and well thought out, must not be compromised.  
 

The objectives have to all start with “how can we keep our guests and crew safe while adhering to the laws and regulations of...”, and “instill confidence in our product to our guest, staff and our business partners”.  If all processes from embarkation, to dining, etc. start with that thought it is easy to see that there is no “one size fits all” process that will work for all ships across the fleet or at every port.  So I would expect changes as things progress, the one thing I would not like to see is a compromise to safety.  They need to stick to the rules that are in place at that time and not decrease the standards around safety protocols.

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It sounds like they are not going to rush back in because they want to avoid creating a mess off the bat.

So I think they intent to get it mostly right the first time.

There are going to have to be some tweaks and adjustments, but I think their intention is to be on the right track, rather than start cruising with one plan and have to completely re-think everything.

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I think they are going to have to get it right the first time. Rightly or wrongly public opinion is not on the cruise industries side. If case are traced back to a cruise ship they could expect to face long bans from ports etc as governments deals with any backlash from allowing cruise in etc. I think all the cruise lines know this (I'm sure governments will be letting them know it) and they will be doing be all they can to ensure their long term future not just their short term

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I think several of you basically said it but they are going to get tried in the court of public opinion (which really means tarred and feathered by the media), so they have to get it right the first time or get destroyed.

I think the much smarter play would be to try and and fix it as they go but they are not going to be allowed to take that approach.

Talking to one of my friends who did the 3 night Mariner weekender to CocoCay with me several times last year and we both agreed we would have felt fine getting on that cruise again right now ... wearing masks when in public but no additional precautions required. We went "off peak" so we already had quiet ships with essentially limited passengers and social distancing. We weren't doing shows so no worried about what that would like, etc.

 

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2 hours ago, Matt said:

It sounds like they are not going to rush back in because they want to avoid creating a mess off the bat.

and hope the other mainstream lines follow suit.  It won't do Royal (or NCL or Carnival) any good if there's another Diamond Princess incident and the ports shut down again.  That's one of my worries, an incident on another cruise line that further impacts the industry.  

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I think the lines that aren't sailing yet are watching the ones who are testing to evaluate what works and what doesn't.   I think sailing from US will be more event driven than an arbitrary date.  Protocols to be decided upon, approved by the USG then slowly start with limited number of ships - each a work in progress.  If effective therapeutic and prophylactic treatments get rolled out, the travel industry will start leaning forward and a little more confidence will be in the air.  

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4 hours ago, mbk999 said:

It won't do Royal (or NCL or Carnival) any good if there's another Diamond Princess incident and the ports shut down again. 

Agreed, but this sort of notion has me thinking about what is an "appropriate" level of cases?

Zero? 1% per ship? 5%?

After Royal Caribbean formed the Healthy Sain Panel, there was an interesting quote from a video that resonates more with me now.

Quote

"We put together this combination not just because of their subject matter expertise, but because they have had long experience in evaluating ideas and being able to come to an understanding that there's no place in our society that you can say is absolutely 100 percent safe. We all manage risks every day, whether we're walking across the street or opening a package of food. There's some kind of risk involved in all of that."

"The idea isn't that we can eliminate all of that. The idea is we can manage it and understanding that perspective and recognizing that it requires judgment to do this well. We look for people who had long standing judgment, experience, whose track record gave them credibility and who had some level of public health or scientific expertise or engineering that could assist in being able to evaluate new ideas and determine when we had actually done all we can do."

I could be wrong, but those quotes sound like they are prepared for cases to be on ships. Mitigated and controlled a heck of a lot better than Diamond Princess ever was, but I think the reality there could be cases onboard and managed without shutting down the industry may be the norm to expect.

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4 hours ago, Matt said:

I could be wrong, but those quotes sound like they are prepared for cases to be on ships. 

You're right, they can't operate expecting to have no cases, I don't see that happening anytime soon.   IF (appropriately caveated) they can get rapid testing figured out and have sufficient tests per voyage, that would go a long way towards the mitigation and control while on-board.  You may have to test every day, certainly returning from a port of call.   Increase the medical center, increase staff to ensure passengers quarantine (boy that would be a fun job, staring at a cabin door all day).  

My worry is less about the ship than it is with how the ports react to a ship with cases.  It's one thing for a port of call to deny a ship, but a home port is another matter.   Hopefully I'm not naive in the assumption that the cruise lines are discussing COVID protocols with the home ports.

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Unfortunately although most of us seem to agree that 0 risk, 0 cases is not realistic and should not be the baseline assumption, I do think that is going to be the standard that the media holds cruise lines to.

One person coming off a cruise ship positive is going to be the lead headline on every story nationwide ridiculing the industry for attempting to restart.

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Risk is never 0 - and not realizable.   Eventually the world will have to adjust this sickness being around, just like others.   People must weigh individual risk and susceptibility and either go on living or hide in a basement until a vaccine is invented.   If effective therapeutics and prophylactic  treatments are introduced that will go a long way to normalizing living in this new environment .

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1 hour ago, jticarruthers said:

Unfortunately although most of us seem to agree that 0 risk, 0 cases is not realistic and should not be the baseline assumption, I do think that is going to be the standard that the media holds cruise lines to.

You're right, especially today. The uncomfortable reality is going forward we may have to shift that view as a society, but I digress.

I will be very interested to see what the Healthy Sail Panel says and how it characterizes these risks.

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I think that as a society things might be perceived a little different. A few months ago a case or two on any cruise line would be a disaster.  Now a lot of people have different perceptions when it comes to the virus. A case or two would not be a black mark on the cruise lines but possibly on the people. However, there may be financial issues that affect the shot. Look at the theme parks, they have been doing things right but revenue is not where they would like, so they have to alter and change to adapt to the current normal. RCG first cruise might be all bells and whistles but they may have to modify to fit with current dynamics.

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49 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

I think that as a society things might be perceived a little different. A few months ago a case or two on any cruise line would be a disaster.  Now a lot of people have different perceptions when it comes to the virus. A case or two would not be a black mark on the cruise lines but possibly on the people. However, there may be financial issues that affect the shot. Look at the theme parks, they have been doing things right but revenue is not where they would like, so they have to alter and change to adapt to the current normal. RCG first cruise might be all bells and whistles but they may have to modify to fit with current dynamics.

Following the tangent, I have to say its awesome to be able to visit Disney and have absolutely no crowds to deal with.

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I think it's going to be a safety issue which will be magnified by the public's perception (and media's reporting) of cruise ships as petrie dishes.   We all know how people love to hold up cruising as the travel enemy (which is so strange when you consider its similarity to an all-inclusive). 

 While I think we can all agree that it's not at all possible (or realistic) to have zero risk,  the cruise lines cannot possibly consider sailing until people who are boarding the ship are coming from a place with an equally low risk.   If people are boarding and are coming from a hot zone, the risk to other passengers and liability the cruise line opens itself up to will be unacceptable.  If passengers from an area in a country (or a different country) have low transmission and are boarding with passengers from an area with high infection and transmission rates, the cruise line would be responsible for spreading the virus.  This is the last thing they need and they will end up being public enemy number one.    Imagine the litigation stemming from someone catching corona virus on a ship and then dying three weeks later - people want to hold the ships accountable for a norovirus outbreak so  just imagine the outrage over a covid death (or deaths).  I also think reduced capacity will be a reality until we have global access to vaccination/treatment.  

Part of the conundrum everyone is facing right now is the lack of global understanding and agreement upon risk, transmission, and preventative measures.    There are always people who don't wash their hands at the buffet, just imagine the stress onboard now regarding this very basic level of hygiene.  I can't even imagine the mask debate on board - it's almost not even worth considering as the battle over it will be herculean, and no one wants to begin their vacay with a battle.

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@DJsMrs  You are correct....until everyone gets on board with a universal safety plan, the floating petri dish will be lurking.  I have been on countless cruises where people try to avoid hand-washing....which baffles me. I am currently helping one of my best friends at her restaurant. We have a total of 8 sanitizing stations scattered throughout the dining room. 2/5 people will use them. I constantly have to tell children to stop playing with them. But I rarely see patrons use them or go to the bathroom before eating. Also as I check IDs I notice people who should be quarantining, they are from banned states but instead of following the rules they put others at risk. We often want to refuse service but often times the arguments and threats aren't worth it. I just tell the employees to be careful and diligent. People come from all over to cruise and it seem everywhere, whether low or high risk, has those who won't comply.

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23 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Hopefully this will stop the knee-jerk overreactions that have been so prevalent. What a shame and such a high cost to everyone involved.

Those antigen tests have an unacceptably high false positive record.  They just aren’t reliable enough to put your entire livelihood (not to mention, vacation) on.  So glad Royal is taking time to let others make these mistakes, first.

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32 minutes ago, WAAAYTOOO said:

Hopefully this will stop the knee-jerk overreactions that have been so prevalent. What a shame and such a high cost to everyone involved.

Those antigen tests have an unacceptably high false positive record.  They just aren’t reliable enough to put your entire livelihood (not to mention, vacation) on.  So glad Royal is taking time to let others make these mistakes, first.

What it tells me is that until a) better testing or b) effective and pervasive vaccine, there's going to be insurmountable problems. Either the cruise lines wait until a) or b), or they have to base their decisions on whatever information they have, however fallible it may be. 

The other alternative is up to us. We can just wait this out for a year and don't blame the cruise lines for what they have to do in the interim.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I think there will not be a 1 rule for all cruises worldwide. Countries where either they have no (or very few) cases (Such as most of Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific, etc) or where it is in retaliative control (Most of Asia etc) are likely to have a 0% threshold whereas where the virus is established in the community there might be more acceptance of having cases on board a ship introduced to a port etc

For example take Fiji or Vanuatu both of whom have 0 cases currently (I think Fiji has 2 in isolation after being caught at the boarder). Both these countries have a 'limited' health systems that  can coupe with the usual day to day issues its population faces would really struggle (i.e break to pieces) if COVID-19 was to be introduced to its population through a cruise ship and then spread through the population. It would be irresponsible for a cruise line to sail to one of these countries without being able to guarantee they had 0 cases on board (In both cases, as with NZ and Australia anyone entering the country is isolated in government facilities for 14 days currently which would be uneconomical for cruise lines,  14 days in isolation in the first port before the ship can continue won't be an option). Cases brought into these countries would be similar to what happened to indigenous populations with measles etc when Europeans first arrived in these countries. We know better now and have a duty not to repeat those mistakes (Heck,  measles killed 83 people  (from a population of 201k) in Samoa due to an outbreak linked back to 1 person in 2019. This was an excellent case on how dangerous the anti vax movement can be).

In the case of the US where the numbers are a lot higher the damage a cruise ship could do if it introduced COVID-19 cases into the population is probably minor in comparison. In this case the appetite from both the public and government might be to resume cruising with some risk and a threshold of certain number of cases etc.

 

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On 8/10/2020 at 8:52 PM, Tanner said:

With respect to everyone having differing opinions on when and how cruising should resume, does anyone think the cruise industry generally figures they get one and only one shot at a return or do you think the industries believes they can make adjustments on the fly?  

It also seems hard to get a consensus on what people would consider "successful" in terms of the result of the first few cruises.  Is the industry being held hostage to unobtainable results?  

Would love to hear your feedback.  

TUI flights Zante (Greece) to Cardiff (Wales) had 7 with corona virus positive cases, mask wearing wasn't complied with and the staff were not enforcing their rules.

Massive media coverage all over the UK and in Europe about this. 

TUI are still operating flights nothing has changed.

If cruise lines get a few cases I shouldn't see why this would change a future cruise the next week. 

Like other (rare) norovirus cases I don't see that anything should change even with a few cases onboard (in isolation) 

 

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