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Cruising Safer Than Travel To Other Destinations?


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52 minutes ago, Tira04 said:

Interestingly, ferries are resuming operations here in the UK, including a few overnight routes.... even though UK govt made a statement today cautioning against cruise holidays.... ?

Ferries are transportation from one place to another (even if it takes overnight). They don't qualify as holidays.

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53 minutes ago, HeWhoWaits said:

Ferries are transportation from one place to another (even if it takes overnight). They don't qualify as holidays.

I know a ferry is a mode of transportation.  ?

I just thought it was interesting. Especially as overnight routes will have some of same issues/requirements as cruises in terms of making things like buffets,  cabins, and public areas safe for travel during covid.19 

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20 minutes ago, Tira04 said:

I know a ferry is a mode of transportation.  ?

I just thought it was interesting. Especially as overnight routes will have some of same issues/requirements as cruises in terms of making things like buffets,  cabins, and public areas safe for travel during covid.19 

Like a plane ride, train trip or ferry ride it's almost certain that symptoms of a viral infection that occurs during the transportation will only present themselves days after the transportation has concluded. 

That makes them appear to be safe.  By the time someone has symptoms they've been involved with so many other activities it becomes difficult to know for certain it was the plane/train/ferry where the infection occurred.  Maybe it was in a visit to a store the day before, maybe it was at church the day after, maybe it was that pub that just opened after the trip, or the person who picked you up in their car, etc.   

In the end those modes of transportation are just as risky or more so compared to a cruise but it's more difficult to know they were involved with an infection so it's easier to give them a green light and mark them as safe.

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8 hours ago, crisgold52 said:

Agreed but one would argue a cruise ship is out in the middle of nowehere for days on end whereas while its accurate a plane has lesser hours there will be asymptomatic bodies everywhere. It would not be fun to fly in and then fail a temp check before enbarkation 

Think if anyone has an upcoming cruise this year (that actually goes).   Guests should isolate themselves 14 days before they leave for the airport/port minimizing the contagion vectors prior to travel.  So if they get sick after the cruise, there's an indication it came from the travel event (and not brought on-board).  And then at least high probability you become symptomatic after your trip and not during.

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Unfortunately a characteristic of the virus remains that it's easily transmissible in any setting that involves gathering.  Cruises ship are much safer than airplanes but neither are a good idea right now. 

School is much more risky than a cruise ship yet the US is full speed ahead opening schools.   The inevitable outcome from schools opening next month and through the fall will further delay cruising once we see the numbers and the youth being impacted from this course of action.

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1 hour ago, crisgold52 said:

What's your estimate on when ships in the US will sail? Do you think anyone in Q1 of 2021 should also think twice?

I can't predict. 

To make an accurate prediction there needs to be less variables in play.  With many states and people with highly variable approaches it's anyone's guess.  Even the influence of a vaccine being available doesn't anchor a date to work from.  Until we see the US with a steady downward trend I just don't see cruises happening.

As we saw in the NY area once they reached the peak it took almost four months to get the cases numbers back down.  That doesn't mean NY can go back to pre-CV19 ways, it just means it got back to where it was in the early days of the virus.  The virus hasn't been defeated, it isn't gone, it's just back to where it was in early March.  If they allow cruises, school, church, etc new case spread will look just like the climb to the April peak looked.

The states that are trending upward right now haven't peaked yet.  We don't know when they'll peak.  Maybe the peak is a week or maybe a month from now.  My fear is the peak will begin to occur right when schools go back which is going to lead to new case growth so declines from the current caseload will be offset by new school cases and the peak may just turn into a plateau or a continuing climb to a yet to be determined future peak.  Only then, into September by that point will they reach the conclusion that they once again opened up too much, too soon and schools must close. 

At that point if they follow the NY area closures the numbers might fall but the problem many areas aren't going to adopt or accept NY type closures and so the numbers won't trend downward.  

Gains realized by the introduction of a vaccine may be offset by ongoing denials and poor choices keeping the numbers from trending downward for months.  That's the type of behaviour that makes estimating anything impossible.  

I am assuming my two European cruises in April and June are likely to not happen.  The ships might sail but being from the US I might not be able to get to the ship or international travel might be foolish at the time.  I'm hoping my Alaska cruise in late June of 2021 is a go.   

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