Jump to content
Royal Caribbean Blog

Recommended Posts

So with the news of high case counts in FL AZ AND TX on Thursday one really has to be realistic here in how this relates to cruising. What we essentially have is asymptomatic spread from people who don't know they are carriers. And one really also has to wonder like I've said before...if the three major players want to undertake a risk of a startup even in October then risk a case or two thereby blowing up for them and causing a ton of negative publicity. 

 

Which is why I'm now as a Canadian looking in at the cases. Will we really see a decline in cases by September or even October. We have a fraction of the cases here in Canada compared to the US. SO With marathons being cancelled, classes in some states being moved online and no at capacity fans at sporting events for the foreseeable future despite pro sports resuming technically in a month... (which is also up in the air at this point) and word that the Canada US land border will probably extent closure thru summer and into September realistically (double standard as the air border remains open etween us though most infrequent travelers do not know about this loophole)... its hard to fathom how any cruise lines would even undertake the risk. Cruise capital South Florida will continue to have cases and with cruise makers flying in from various states it's all realistically going to probably be an additional global suspension.

 

A travel agent source I called to inquire about booking some additional cabins for guests to come with me on the MARINER sailing in Nov  (apparently TA's get group rates at a better discount) advised it's best to hold off booking anything with a departure date before APR 2021.  So at this point as a realistic  Canadian looking at this... I'm leaning towards the big three players not starting up or at least willing to take the risks to go out to sea in this climate. What do others think? And even then I'm sure the same goes for the US guests as well... all travel insurance carriers will not insure for anything related to covid as part of the medical premium. Its classified as a known event. 

 

I'd be very surprised if my mid NOV MARINER goes ahead.  Much less the impending second wave which technically already seems to be working it's way across the south. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 181
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I think we do better when we keep the conversation focused on cruising. These debates never go anywhere.

The Maid of the Mist in Niagara Falls may be the only "cruise" I will be able to go on in 2020.  Below is a photo taken from this article.  The photo really shows how our two countries are approaching

Oh for the days when the biggest discussion or arguments were over paper straws or the pricing of the drink package and whether its worth it or not...   Hope to be back there one day!

Posted Images

Stick a fork in 2020, it's done.

My brother has a March 2021 sailing  has booked out of Sydney for his 40th, and he's resigned himself to that not going ahead. I concur, sadly.

My question at this point is how long can RCL (and Carnival and NCL) last with no revenue coming in?  At what point does this get critical for their survival? Because I don't see any of them sailing for a long time, sadly.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, crisgold52 said:

So with the news of high case counts in FL AZ AND TX on Thursday one really has to be realistic here in how this relates to cruising. What we essentially have is asymptomatic spread from people who don't know they are carriers. And one really also has to wonder like I've said before...if the three major players want to undertake a risk of a startup even in October then risk a case or two thereby blowing up for them and causing a ton of negative publicity. 

 

Which is why I'm now as a Canadian looking in at the cases. Will we really see a decline in cases by September or even October. We have a fraction of the cases here in Canada compared to the US. SO With marathons being cancelled, classes in some states being moved online and no at capacity fans at sporting events for the foreseeable future despite pro sports resuming technically in a month... (which is also up in the air at this point) and word that the Canada US land border will probably extent closure thru summer and into September realistically (double standard as the air border remains open etween us though most infrequent travelers do not know about this loophole)... its hard to fathom how any cruise lines would even undertake the risk. Cruise capital South Florida will continue to have cases and with cruise makers flying in from various states it's all realistically going to probably be an additional global suspension.

 

A travel agent source I called to inquire about booking some additional cabins for guests to come with me on the MARINER sailing in Nov  (apparently TA's get group rates at a better discount) advised it's best to hold off booking anything with a departure date before APR 2021.  So at this point as a realistic  Canadian looking at this... I'm leaning towards the big three players not starting up or at least willing to take the risks to go out to sea in this climate. What do others think? And even then I'm sure the same goes for the US guests as well... all travel insurance carriers will not insure for anything related to covid as part of the medical premium. Its classified as a known event. 

 

I'd be very surprised if my mid NOV MARINER goes ahead.  Much less the impending second wave which technically already seems to be working it's way across the south. 

Totally agree.

With the number of cases being reported in FL, I would be surprised if any cruise ship is allowed to embark anytime soon out of FL. Maybe not at all in 2020. Could this spur a change by cruise lines to outright move embarkation points to places other than FL with no US mainland stops?

Just my opinion, if cruise lines are not operational in some way, shape or form by end of the year, there might not be much of a cruise industry left for 2021.

Link to post
Share on other sites

No one has a crystal ball to look into the future so anyone suggesting a hard date is simply guessing.  Anyone can throw a date out there.  All of 2021 may be lost to cruising, perhaps 2022 as well.  We just don't know.  Bankruptcy may be inevitable but don't confuse that with the company disappearing from the planet.  

The Florida/Texas/California/XYZ situation at the moment is unfortunate.  There are some very valuable lessons that can be learned there.  Some areas will use that knowledge to shape their response going forward.  Like NY/NJ and other states in that part of the country the current areas that are experiencing high case counts will get past this as long as they don't ignore science and data.  Other states will benefit from this having seen what happens if too much is opened too soon.  That will help the country in the long run.  All we need is for leaders to lead and not follow a false hope.

The states that have or are experiencing extreme impact are all cruising home port states.  Sadly the current Florida situation may be the wound to the cruise industry that proves fatal.  If the areas suffering high impact now had used lessons from the Northeast the cruise industry as we know it might have been spared.  If history teaches us anything the cruise industry will come back eventually.  It became what it was despite plagues and viruses throughout the ages.  It will come back at some point.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes it will come back and on leaning towards 2021. But realistically it's a big risk for the three players to undertake aka heading out to sea with asymptomatic folks who may or may not come down with something during the voyage. So at this point its looking very unlikely that my NOV MARINER OR even my FEB 2021 NAVIGATOR will be going ahead due to a combination of various factors. Also my source was advising that theres no guarantee if the CDC will seek to extend the no sail order past July 25. Flights on the other hand are  a bit of a different model since while it's TRUE people are packed closer together...by their nature flights last hours not days and they have the ability to touch down anywhere Plus lesser head count per aircraft compared to a ship .

Link to post
Share on other sites

My view is that the take on the cruise industry being unable to restart cruising operations by late September is pretty solid. Asymptomatic spread of the virus is a key factor that is going to discourage the public health experts that the three major lines have allegedly hired to advise them to advise their bosses to restart cruising.

  • The cost-benefit analysis when risk is factored in is very likely to find risks too high in relationship to costs and what are likely to be small profit margins not off-setting operational expenses.
  • It's the equivalent of the current restaurant quandary of trying to operate at 50% capacity and stay afloat on a much larger scale with cruise ships.

The other is the state of public health advisories and orders around the world, including ports of call.

  • As of now, such ports and airports will not allow US citizens traveling from the US to disembark without either outright exclusions or lengthy quarantines upon arrival.
  • I would not expect that situation to become more favorable towards American travelers any time soon and certainly not before September. 

I'm among the group of cruisers who believe any date for resumption of cruise operations can be thrown out there by anyone and it's just a guess. Here's mine:

  • I think the same risk and cost benefit assessment I mention above applies to any determination of a reasonable date for the resumption of cruise operations out of US ports.
  • We've already seen some less visible cruise lines looking at operating from European and Asian ports serving the travelers in those regions.
  • I expect the three major lines we know of will look very carefully at this and if the demand is there, they will start offering itineraries and cabins in Europe and Asia - sans Americans.
  • This may serve as a lifeline for keeping the majors liquid by generating revenue from these operations until the US wakes up about about facing COVID and/or an effective vaccine becomes available.
  • Given those factors and, assuming some revenue can be generated by the three majors operating cruises without Americans aboard, I'd predict that cruising from US ports on the itineraries we have come to know won't begin until after the first quarter of 2021, possibly longer. The start date will depend heavily on the behavior of Americans facing the nationwide surge in C-19 cases and the availability and early effectiveness of vaccines. 

I'm not optimistic about the survival as we know it of the three majors if they can't find a way to bridge the reality of COVID in the US to the 2nd quarter of 2021. And that is with a vaccine or not. I'm more optimistic if they can find some way to generate revenue not operating from US ports. While it's true, cruising from US ports won't disappear forever - there is too much US demand for it, if bankruptcies do occur, and I think they will barring everything falling in to place, the cruise industry will change. Dramatically. It will be similar to what went on within the Airline industry after deregulation in the late 70s/early 80s. They will will reorganize. Hard to say what that might look like but I'd guess, retiring of older, smaller ships that some of us love, less ships overall, more super cruise ships in the 4-6K passenger range, higher load factors on those bigger ships, fewer services and higher prices. Sound familiar? If not, think the airlines.  

Bottom line: Best case, major cruise lines survive pretty much in tact and start sailing again during the second quarter, 2021; worst case, existing operational expenses, even with ships in cold storage as it is called, exceed available cash, declarations of bankruptcy protection ensue and reorganization as I described it above with all those downsides is likely.

Also worth noting is that no matter what circumstances the cruise industry survives and sails again, especially if bankruptcy can be avoided, debt loads for the survivors will be sky high. If we choose to cruise again, we will pay for that in both service and costs. Afraid to say, that is the stark reality us cruise lovers are facing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/3/2020 at 8:24 AM, KWofPerth said:

Stick a fork in 2020, it's done.

My brother has a March 2021 sailing  has booked out of Sydney for his 40th, and he's resigned himself to that not going ahead. I concur, sadly.

My question at this point is how long can RCL (and Carnival and NCL) last with no revenue coming in?  At what point does this get critical for their survival? Because I don't see any of them sailing for a long time, sadly.

I have the exact same question. I've heard people say Royal/Carnival/NCL have raised enough money to last till 2022 but I don't buy that. If they aren't up and running by late spring I say all 3 go under as in out of business. I mean what large business can last over a year without revenue? The funny thing is bookings are way up for next year I guess thinking things will be better or a vaccine will be out. 

If this doesn't clear up very soon small lines are going to disappear like Pulmantur already has. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

 I say all 3 go under as in out of business. 

Companies this size with leveraged debt against capital assets to the extent the three major cruise lines have won't disappear.... as in "go out of business" as I suspect is implied.

Bankruptcy is declared to protect the company from creditors and court ordered arrangements are made to make sure debts are paid back at some level by future revenue or selling off assets. The cruise industry will reorganize much like the Airlines did as various carriers declared bankruptcy and consolidated operations following deregulation in the 70s.

The cruise industry has plenty of pent up demand and investors will be keen on it. Revenue should not be a problem once full or even partial cruising returns. What will a reorganized cruise industry will look like in that circumstance? Less ships, preservation of more efficient, newer ones, higher costs to the consumer, less services.

I'd give this scenario about a 50/50 chance of that happening sometime after the end of the first quarter 2021 if travel restrictions of any significant level remain in place. If COVID remains as great of a threat as it is now at that time the cruise industry is just one player in the travel and leisure industry that has to adapt to survive. Hard to imagine what that might look like or if cruising will ever resume. It's an absolute worst case scenario with a low probability of occurrence but not zero. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JeffB said:

Companies this size with leveraged debt against capital assets to the extent the three major cruise lines have won't disappear.... as in "go out of business" as I suspect is implied.

Bankruptcy is declared to protect the company from creditors and court ordered arrangements are made to make sure debts are paid back at some level by future revenue or selling off assets. The cruise industry will reorganize much like the Airlines did as various carriers declared bankruptcy and consolidated operations following deregulation in the 70s.

The cruise industry has plenty of pent up demand and investors will be keen on it. Revenue should not be a problem once full or even partial cruising returns. What will a reorganized cruise industry will look like in that circumstance? Less ships, preservation of more efficient, newer ones, higher costs to the consumer, less services.

I'd give this scenario about a 50/50 chance of that happening sometime after the end of the first quarter 2021 if travel restrictions of any significant level remain in place. If COVID remains as great of a threat as it is now at that time the cruise industry is just one player in the travel and leisure industry that has to adapt to survive. Hard to imagine what that might look like or if cruising will ever resume. It's an absolute worst case scenario with a low probability of occurrence but not zero. 

Well I'm not a business person at all so I hope you were correct they won't go under. To my non business mind no revenue can't go on too long. 

The reorganizing part in more terrifying because the airlines and flying to suck more and more after they "reorganize". 

Anyway I just want Royal Caribbean to survive and be there same it always was. 

On another note we just back from the indoor mall here in NJ for the first time since they opened last week and it was certainly different. It's a bit tough to navigate in they there are specific traffic patterns. Sometimes people follow, sometimes they don't. Sometimes we followed, sometimes we didn't or we made a mistake and went down the wrong way. No body cared. Everyone was wearing a face covering and it was a pleasant. No one way angry or anything. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Royal will survive but in a reorganized form.  

What we've learned about the virus is that it isn't over and we are not in control.  That's not going to change until a vaccine has reached a significant percentage of the population.  Nothing has changed in 6 months, it's still spreading when we do things to enable it to spread and that's not going to change until a vaccine is available.  Absent of a vaccine it will be spreading 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 months from now and it will continue beyond that.  

Let's put it this way - if there is no vaccine we will be right where we are right now in October.  If there is no vaccine we will be right where we are right now in January of 2021.  If there is no vaccine we will be right where we are right now in Januray of 2022 and so on.  

I don't expect a vaccine to be commonly available to the masses to the point it can be listed as a prerequisite to cruise and we all have a reasonable expectation that anyone can get a vaccination in 2020.  Hopefully that will occur in 2021 but it will take the world several months to see the impact of a vaccine and only then will the world relax travel bans and cruise restrictions.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sure cruising will be back this year,  it is getting to the point that people just want to roll the dice. I also can see RCCI surviving past all of this. I think the problem is people have unrealistic expectations. Cruises will start but is going to be "at your risk," or it will involve mandatory quarantine. There is also no way it won't require mask. Since a heavy aspect of cruising is socializing, we just need to get some criteria and restrictions down. The problem with all of this is everyone is turning any little thing into a political ploy. So I worry about RCCI waiting for a vaccine to cruise.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't see the CDC accepting that folks will be cruising "at their own risk". 

CDC: Oh?  People are willing to sign a waiver?  Well in that case everyone can cruise.  NOT! 

The CDC will allow cruising when the public health risk has subsided.

Other regions will start cruising before the U.S.  The danger with that would be what happened in Florida and Texas when they pretended the virus didn't exist.  It's a hoax, right?  

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/3/2020 at 10:24 PM, KWofPerth said:

Stick a fork in 2020, it's done.

My brother has a March 2021 sailing  has booked out of Sydney for his 40th, and he's resigned himself to that not going ahead. I concur, sadly.

My question at this point is how long can RCL (and Carnival and NCL) last with no revenue coming in?  At what point does this get critical for their survival? Because I don't see any of them sailing for a long time, sadly.

Cancelled all my bookings until 2022. 

Was hoping to spend my 40th in March 2021 out of Sydney as well. Not looking likely.

We here in Melbourne are going backwards after restrictions were lifted. People just aren't following the social distancing rules. It's only a matter of time before the same happens in Sydney I reckon.

One thing I have picked up in the news is the media referring to high density towers in the city as 'vertical cruise ships'.🤦‍♂️ They just can't seem to let their obsession with blaming the cruise industry go.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The state of Florida just had another 10,000 cases as of July 5, and the spikes are continuing across the country. Now imagine Southern Florida and the cruise industry's wanting to get going again by Oct 1 or in some cases Sept. 15 as per the latest from RCL. My final payment is due Aug 30 for a mid-November sailing. Just word in Canadian News today and local provincial authorities about the US cases being out of control... and that the land border closure will continue past July 25 with that being made official sometime in the next week or two.

 

I was looking forward to embarking on my November 3-nighter after having moved it from April, July, and Sept of this year so I guess by mid-August I will pull the plug and move the funds over to my backup booking for February which is already in place. Looks like another exercise in musical chairs for me 🙂 Lets hope I can keep the moves to under 2 hours again of time invested.


On a side note as per a news package that aired on a major network a few days ago...as an outsider looking in honestly, I can't tell why the US has such issues with mitigation or containment when up here in Canada we have a fraction of the cases. If those in the US followed a few basic things all of us would potentially be able to get back to cruising again 🙂
 

In Canada we had:

- Slower re-openings of businesses across the various provinces
- Bipartisan ship, the leader of one party praising the leader of another party and keeping politics out of this; our opposition party leader praising the health minister of the governing party for their efforts.
- Early and widespread testings.
- *Free basic healthcare that's still adding more capacity than needed.
- No controversy about a masks impeding ones freedoms or rights (in fact nothing about this in any other country other than the US). So for these reasons I conclude and based on all the other reports and evidence that I am resigned to the fact the 2020 cruise season is done for North America. What sort of start up will we see in 2021? Its anyone's guess at this point.


Also we will find out about the CDC no sail order by July 25 if and when it gets extended. And I wonder how long RCL is going to extend the latest round to, anyone care to guess? I think September will be pushed out to October 15 if its keeping in line with the current patterns.

Link to post
Share on other sites

@twangster No I didn't mean the CDC would allow things to go down like that. We all know they aren't about that life.

More so I meant there may come a point where the CDC approves the guidelines and the cruise lines will be cruise at your own risk situation. I know some people might believe the CDC is on a power trip, but that is not the case. I am sure the lines will get approval soon, regardless of the cases still rising. I don't think the ban will be extended since they are voluntarily shut down tthrough September.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, crisgold52 said:

I can't tell why the US has such issues with mitigation or containment when up here in Canada we have a fraction of the cases.

At the end of the day it's on the people.  

We can blame leaders and try to turn it political but that's just a way to put the blame elsewhere.  Regardless who our elected officials may be, it's the actions of the people that will drive the cases up and down. 

The US people could have looked at the early explosion of cases in the Northeast and learned from it.  We the people collectively chose not to.   We the people have the opportunity to get the numbers down but not enough people are trying to.  That's on the people who pretend there is no virus, it's not on the mayor/governor/president.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, twangster said:

At the end of the day it's on the people.  

We can blame leaders and try to turn it political but that's just a way to put the blame elsewhere.  Regardless who our elected officials may be, it's the actions of the people that will drive the cases up and down. 

The US people could have looked at the early explosion of cases in the Northeast and learned from it.  We the people collectively chose not to.   We the people have the opportunity to get the numbers down but not enough people are trying to.  That's on the people who pretend there is no virus, it's not on the mayor/governor/president.  

I've got banned from several Disney Facebook groups for saying this. Just because a theme park is opening this Saturday doesn't mean it's smart to go. Orlando is the epicenter of the pandemic.

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Ampurp85 said:

@twangster No I didn't mean the CDC would allow things to go down like that. We all know they aren't about that life.

More so I meant there may come a point where the CDC approves the guidelines and the cruise lines will be cruise at your own risk situation. I know some people might believe the CDC is on a power trip, but that is not the case. I am sure the lines will get approval soon, regardless of the cases still rising. I don't think the ban will be extended since they are voluntarily shut down tthrough September.

I honestly hope you are right! This thread is so depressing! I understand that people are trying to be real, but much of this just sounds like they want to embrace the "doomsday" side of it all. It's no wonder why the suicide hotlines have seen a 800% rise in calls. I have done my best to keep my hopes alive in all of this, but dang it some people make that so difficult. If my next 2 sailings get cancelled then I'm done and will sit and cry because my children will never get to experience the joy of being on the ocean. I love RCCL, but I don't think I can handle the run around anymore. One day we are told that things will get back to normal. Then you have some who say that cruising is dead. Others say that we will cruise but it'll basically cost more than what you will be getting back in FCC to go. As an American I'm being (basically) called a virus or stupid by the rest of the world because of things that I have nothing to do with. I know people are scared of getting this (whether you should or not is different discussion), but all of the seclusion, fearmongering by some, and faces that can no longer smile is doing more internal (mental and emotional) damage to people of all ages than what most people realize. Even though my kids and I have already had it and recovered, I'm about to the point where I would gladly get it again just to have some peace of mind, fun, and relaxation for a few days. A heart can only take so much.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm also looking forward to getting back o the water but right now with all the uncertainties on general out there it's best to not put to much excitement into it at present for 2020. I have been disappointed with my cancellations already for APR JULY SEPT and now just waiting on NOV. Personally when my April got cancelled I moved it it July and I recall being a bit excited with cruise planner purchases then repeating process again for September but at this point with about seven weeks till AUG 30 where my final payment is due... I'm remaining neutral and not getting 'excited' again. I'm also holding off on any CP purchases till after final payment most likely in early SEPT around 2 months before the supposed embarkation but right now it's a waif and used approach.

 

I will say that moving an FCC between bookings requires a lot of time on hold with post cruise team as they have to consult with RSS so it's ammatter of investing time and patience into doing this exercise again though practice makes perfect so I get my own times down each time I do this exercise in musical chairs as I call it. 

 

The reality is really the unknown. Perhaps there may be a ray of light with NCL & RCL partnering together for more 'consultations' however I'm not holding my breath and mentally I've already written off 2020. If at the last moment the NOV sailing does go I'll be happy at that point. But a three nighter is relatively easy to reschedule since it leaves every Friday on the same itinerary so a lift and shift seems impractical for it. Just choose the cheapest Friday and jump on it is my advice. The Lift and shift is practical for 7 nights or longer though but for a Perfect Day / Bahamas it's relatively easy to pick another Friday. In a way its almost like a 'shuttle'for a weekend or a quick bus ride. 🙂

 

Meanwhile I guess we will continue to look with interest at how the remainder of the 2020 season looks like. Florida and the south really have to get their figures down though for anything to remotely begin. This moth and most of next will be an indicator of how things proceed as we head into the peak of summer. Again Sept 15 is a moving target.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The news is just in... Latest forum topic on Cruise Industry news and as per Vicki Freed... the new panel will present its recommendations to each company on AUG 31 then the cruise lines have to vet them before presenting them to the CDC which who knows will take how long at this point its indicative that the lines will not commence any kind of restart on Sept 16. Will see about the rest of 2020.

 

At this point perhaps there might be a slim ray of hope of salvaging what's left of 2020 but don't forget... the lines will still have to deal with port restrictions and staffing levels and so fourth. 

 

Additionally it is quite surprising they'd need months to come up with a social distancing plan much less any plan. I know a cruise does offer a different environment and containment is utmost of importance should there be a very likely scenario where something will break out on its voyages so one has to wonder what new ideas or changes that haven't already been discussed since March be put forward. 

 

At this point any one guess when the new slate of cancellations will be till? We all know Sept 16 will not be the restart. When will they announce the extension of pauses. My wager is start of August or mid August. My final payment is due Aug 30 so at this point its hit and miss.

Link to post
Share on other sites

My personal feeling at this point is that the US won't see cruising resume before summer of 2021 at the absolute earliest. New York needed a solid 3 months to stabilize things and get daily counts back to levels the hospitals could manage. The current hot spots are approaching those levels of exponential growth and aren't being effectively stamped out. Let's say they manage somehow to follow the same track as NY (which I seriously doubt, given they didn't learn the lessons from there); 3 months from now is October, and we're solidly in the new flu season along with the oncoming winter, and I don't see a better outcome than stable case counts only slightly reduced from the peak. Hopefully low enough that hospitals can keep up.

I could be totally wrong on this. There is new research that indicates the main source of spread isn't every single person, but "super spreaders"; individuals who are pre-symptomatic but shed far more of the virus, infecting far more people than others do (on the order of 6-10+ people infected for every one that a "regular" spreader might infect). Maybe we'll get lucky and cut enough of those people off that we get it under control more quickly.

But there are too many news stories telling me we won't be that lucky. There's the 18 members of a single extended Texas family who got infected by one of their cousins when they all attended a birthday party. There's the guy who posted a video saying how sorry he was that he attended a party that likewise saw huge number of people infected (caused, it turned out, by a person who knew he was infected but decided to attend the party because he couldn't be contagious because he didn't have any symptoms).

Nope. I have no hope for anything getter better any time soon any more.

Link to post
Share on other sites

@JLMoran I would disagree only because research says herd immunity is not looking good. So there is no point in trying to sort of mitigate the spread. Those who are now getting it aren't dying or putting too much strain on hospitals. So the only thing is a vaccine. I cannot see any cruise line wanting to wait it out. What I can see is rapid testing and social distancing heavily enforced. The infection is spreading because of people being contrary and uncaring. Now that the toys are being taken away again and they are feeling the punishment, they might do better. Yes COVID plus the flu is going to be a b!+$% but I still believe the lines will be open come October.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ampurp85 said:

@JLMoran I would disagree only because research says herd immunity is not looking good. So there is no point in trying to sort of mitigate the spread. Those who are now getting it aren't dying or putting too much strain on hospitals. So the only thing is a vaccine. I cannot see any cruise line wanting to wait it out. What I can see is rapid testing and social distancing heavily enforced. The infection is spreading because of people being contrary and uncaring. Now that the toys are being taken away again and they are feeling the punishment, they might do better. Yes COVID plus the flu is going to be a b!+$% but I still believe the lines will be open come October.

Well at this point anything is possible. We didn't think the industry would be shuttered for this long much less continuing down this path so ultimately it all comes down to risk and publicity. The answer logically would be risk trumps publicity. We all know that the new cases are asymptomatic and that nothing is fool proof, so the risk of going out to sea for the lines now is, if someone contracts it which is extremely likely to happen probability wise... then it becomes a question of what kind of plan they'd have in place for that or if they are willing to press ahead regardless. Only time will tell. I am fully expecting the next slate of cancellations for the remaining September sailings to come down hopefully by Mid-August. It was just not so long ago that they assured us that their full return would be June 12 and then it kept getting pushed back... also the big three will only ever follow each other ultimately... so if one opts not to start, then no one will start. Its more than just RCL now.

 

Also October is flu season so its a scary thought to think what will happen then. When ever you have people flying in from all over the country to one central port to board a ship, those people would also have had contacts from their home cities and towns and everyone then comes together so there will be asymptomatic spread. Realistically 2020 doesn't seem to be logical. Of course lets see if you are right, we'll wait and see, and take it as it comes. No sense in trying to make conjecture here about what may or may not happen 🙂 Even in my home province of British Columbia... local reports out today indicate our provincial authorities are even hesitant to make any calls on cruises up to Alaska come April 2021. We already lost the cruise season for the Alaska market this year. Ultimately the final call does rest with the Federal Government of Canada as marine and waterways are Federally regulated on the advice of the local Provincial Authorities. So generally if the provincial authorities recommend something the Federal Government would act.

 

My advice is, use your best judgements when making final payments. Hold off on any cruise planner bookings because the more money one has tied up now should there be more cancellations will again be a wait to get all those pre-cruise purchases back. There's always sales, so no rush there.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, crisgold52 said:

Well at this point anything is possible. We didn't think the industry would be shuttered for this long much less continuing down this path so ultimately it all comes down to risk and publicity. The answer logically would be risk trumps publicity. We all know that the new cases are asymptomatic and that nothing is fool proof, so the risk of going out to sea for the lines now is, if someone contracts it which is extremely likely to happen probability wise... then it becomes a question of what kind of plan they'd have in place for that or if they are willing to press ahead regardless. Only time will tell. I am fully expecting the next slate of cancellations for the remaining September sailings to come down hopefully by Mid-August. It was just not so long ago that they assured us that their full return would be June 12 and then it kept getting pushed back... also the big three will only ever follow each other ultimately... so if one opts not to start, then no one will start. Its more than just RCL now.

 

Also October is flue season so its a scary thought to think what will happen then. When ever you have people flying in from all over the country to one central port to board a ship, those people would also have had contacts from their home cities and towns and everyone then comes together so there will be asymptomatic spread. Realistically 2020 doesn't seem to be logical. Of course lets see if you are right, we'll wait and see, and take it as it comes. No sense in trying to make conjecture here about what may or may not happen 🙂 Even in my home province of British Columbia... local reports out today indicate our provincial authorities are even hesitant to make any calls on cruises up to Alaska come April 2021. We already lost the cruise season for the Alaska market this year.

 

My advice is, use your best judgements when making final payments. Hold off on any cruise planner bookings because the more money one has tied up now should there be more cancellations will again be a wait to get all those pre-cruise purchases back. There's always sales, so no rush there.

 

Oh no, Crisgold you heard that Vancouver is already talking about not allowing cruise ships in 2021.   I having a sailing booked for June 2021.  This is terrible news for Alaska if true.   Was this a rumor or did you read this somewhere?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...