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And that is exactly the discussion here, that Cruise lines have to follow CDC guidelines.  You are either in favor of that being a condition of cruising or not.  I am 65 and in perfectly good health.  I also follow social distancing and always wear a mask.  Not sure what you mean by staying behind and enjoying the amenities.  So they will infect the hotel not the theme park?  Again, a cruise ship is self contained.  If there's an outbreak, there's nowhere to go to insulate yourself except barricading yourself in your room.  There needs to be much more stringent requirements for cruise ships.

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4 hours ago, Pooch said:

Sorry, I just don’t buy it.  Their concern, their JOB, is to supply the best health recommendations possible.  Balancing that against any other concerns is not their job.

The CDC won’t even express any interest in what the cruise lines are proposing. That’s not right. 
 

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2020/06/18/wall-street-cdc-blame-cruises-not-resuming-sooner

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Well since the CDC has always looked over the cruising industry maybe they are seeing things we don't see. Having been on cruises we know that the crew keeps things clean, way cleaner than anything else. So things are definitely fuzzy, why can't they open if NCL and maybe even RCCI has submitted new protocols???? Just maybe the CDC doesn't believe in them. Do I think everyone, from the bottom to the top, is self-serving...yes. However, I don't believe the CDC is doing this for a power grab. While 5 out of probably a million people would get on a cruise right now, the CDC is focusing on the 990+ thousand. Going to your local beach, theme park, or to another state is not the same as international travel. Most people are not ready for that....cruising is international travel.

Also consider this....how many people are following protocol?

In Chicago we aren't suppose to have inside dining yet, but all the small restaurants who don't have patio seating are doing it. There should be less than 25% capacity but I see places packed. People refuse to wear mask even though policies say no service if you don't. Social distancing is not being followed as people pack beaches and theme parks. Maybe the CDC KNOWS that people won't follow whatever protocols and are instead looking to the public to determine when cruising can continue. Not just there opinions but how the infection rates are doing and their reactions to protocols.

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@RBRSKI Mask or no mask required?  How were the restaurants?  I recently ate out for the first time since Dec, I was on a diet, then Covid happened and now I was tired of cooking. It was mask until we got to our table and mask anytime we were up and about...i.e to the bathroom and leaving. I didn't mind it but some people were rude to the servers.

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1 minute ago, Ampurp85 said:

@RBRSKI Mask or no mask required?  How were the restaurants?  I recently ate out for the first time since Dec, I was on a diet, then Covid happened and now I was tired of cooking. It was mask until we got to our table and mask anytime we were up and about...i.e to the bathroom and leaving. I didn't mind it but some people were rude to the servers.

Now that I think about it the only ones wearing masks were the hotel employees!  We did not eat at any of the restaurants.  They did have guides on the floor wherever people had to wait in a line.  They did have an announcement at the pool area every hour about how we can all be safe.  Kinda sounded like the voice you hear in Disney  LOL   The only housekeeping service was new towels delivered to room.  In light of all the stuff going on in the world today, everyone seemed to be very happy to be away!

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22 hours ago, Pooch said:

Not sure what you mean by staying behind and enjoying the amenities.  So they will infect the hotel not the theme park?  Again, a cruise ship is self contained.  If there's an outbreak, there's nowhere to go to insulate yourself except barricading yourself in your room.  There needs to be much more stringent requirements for cruise ships.

I mean exactly that.  They will stay in the hotel by the pool thinking they are socially distancing and not go to the theme park, hence, in their mind they are being pro-active.  They are not going to pack up and say let's get out of here, unless they go to the hospital.  They paid $$$ for the family reunion and by dang it they will fight through this, at least for aa day.  Afterall, it might be too much heat, not enough hydration, too much activity, etc. etc.  Just need a "down" day and will feel better.

Let's also be real.  I could go to WDW for 5 nights and feel fine.  The day we drive out I start to feel "funky".  We drive (12 hrs) so lots of stops for food and gas.  I abide by wearing a mask at these stops, but take it off to eat at Cracker Barrel, I use hand sanitizer as soon as I sit down. Finished eating, we go and buy some snacks, etc.  still wearing a mask. Never using the bathroom.  What you behind me didn't realize was that I picked up that bag of Munchos and placed them back for that fake cheese popcorn.  You just took that bag of Munchos.  I use the ATM pin pad right before you and you use it without wiping it down.  My germs are on both the Munchos and the ATM pin pad.  I get home the next day and I have CoVid.  You, unwittingly are now at risk.

I already infected a ton of people before I even felt funky just because I was at WDW sitting on that tea cup ride or holding on to the handle at Splash Mountain.  Mask or no mask.  Fact is those germs are on my hands when I wipe my face from sweat.  WDW is not as clean as any cruise ship. Yet, WDW and Vegas are allowed to reopen.

Have you even thought about how much you are exposed to at your local grocery store even if they require masks and social distancing?  They are not sanitizing like a cruise ship.  Great example.  When you buy your eggs, do you just grab a carton, or do you take it out, open it up and touch each egg to make sure none are cracked?  If so, you just placed your germs all over that container.  I come behind you 1 min later and do the exact same thing.  How about that eggplant or broccoli, are you taking just the 1st one there, or are you inspecting them and placing it back?  How many germs do you think are there?  

Your last comment about barricading is impo now a fact for many cruisers.  I see it from a booking issue.  My SoS May 2021 sailing no longer has any JS balconies left. The spacious balcony (lower cat) is now running higher than what I got my JS at.  My husband and I have always done balcony.  I personally believe that every cruise line will have to do deep discounts for interior cabins because of that exact fear.  

I would also add that is one reason why they will roll out Oasis and Quantum class 1st.  Those ships have a lot more balconies,  A lot more space from a density aspect compared to Freedom class ships.    

I will sail as soon as I can.  I believe 1 thing, the day you are born, the day you will die is set.  I have to believe that due to the fact my husband flew fighters for the USAF for 21 yrs and my son is a pilot for USAF now.  I cannot live in fear.  I can live in checking off my bucket list items, such as zip lining, para sailing, and now riding a scooter underwater to see Sea Turtles!

 

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Which is why I wear gloves at the grocery store.  And yes, you are right, asymptomatic people, people who just don't get that the funky feeling might indeed be covid are a real problem everywhere.  (Check out "Stay the [email protected]#@# at Home" on Youtube!)  But I am actually referring to an outbreak of full tilt boogie sick people.  On land this is easier to deal with.  At sea a quarantine problem.  And yup, we have an owners suite booked on our February cruise!  If I'm confined to my room, at least its a nice one!!

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@Pooch 

You do realize that wearing gloves at a grocery store is not the "be all" correct?

Actually they have shown that, unless you are wearing disposable and take them off properly, it is not only fruitless, but can spread the virus. 

My youngest is a bio-chemist.  He actually laughs at how people are thinking they are keeping them safe.  He was the one to point out to me about grocery stores.

Look around and you will see people are not wearing them correctly..  Many do not cover their nose, or if they have a beard it is not covered.  GERMS!  In essence, what good is a mask and gloves if you do not do it to the level of the medical field?

Many that wear gloves re-use them everytime, or worse yet pull them off and toss them in the shopping cart.

We will just have to agree to disagree.  I believe that the CDC is moving the bar when it comes to the cruise lines.  I believe that this is occurring because their industry lobbyist are not as aggressive as the hotel industry lobbyist.

If they were smart and got the long shoremen union/lobbyist involved cruising would start in Aug

FWIW I have seen those videos.  Trust me.  I have stayed at home since the day I was furloughed on March 16th. I go out 2x a week for groceries.  Have not even done a drive thru.  In the 3 months now, I have filled my gas tank 2X.  That is it.  Before Covid when I was working, it was every 6 days. 

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On 6/18/2020 at 9:15 AM, Pooch said:

What do you do if there's an outbreak in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico?

This is one of our concerns. I would wager, at least the first few months back at sea, if there are positive cases on a ship, the destination port might deny or delay entry. Sure, I can bring my work laptop "just in case" but my wife doesn't have the same option. It would require more vacation days to be used and an upset boss my wife would be coming home to.

On 6/18/2020 at 10:14 AM, Pooch said:

If there's an outbreak, there's nowhere to go to insulate yourself except barricading yourself in your room.

The best we have stayed in was a Grand Suite and even that wouldn't be enough space for me to not lose my sanity after a day. I would need one of the Aqua Suites on Oasis class at a minimum :). 

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Ummmm can I just say germs and the virus are different. Unless that bag of chips, carton of eggs and handrail is covered in spit or mucus, the odds of catching COVID from it is extremely low. Things should be kept clean in regards to other bacteria and germs. I am reminded of the stylist who cut 140 peoples hair with COVID but nobody was infected......because she washed her hands and they all kept their mask on. I see people who have gloves on the store and I laugh. They dig in their bag, adjust their mask and touch all sorts of things like their hair and face. What is the point??

My brother goes to the store 2/3 a week because he needs fresh fruit; he has incurable stomach cancer, so his immune system is compromised. He wears his mask only, does all his shopping and washes his hands when he gets home. We share a home and he hasn't been sick because we do our part. Oct was supposed to be his first RCCI cruise but we collectedly decided to wait. Not because we don't trust that RCCI will do their part and be clean. But because people will not. This is a social disease, how can you comfortably vacation knowing that its a possibility that the person next to you: at the bar, sitting by you on deck, or sitting in front of you at a show, has COVID. People are not inherently good and are always self-serving. They don't want to cancel their vacation, especially if it took some time to get there and/or cost them a decent amount of money. I don't think people or RCCI can afford to have to quarantine right now...regardless of how nice the room may be.

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Seriously,  I see this is like a ski lift ticket.

It states in fine print the liabilities,.

If you don't want to sail, than OK.  However, I do want to sail.

I remember a sociology course I took in undergrad.  When does the good of 1 outweigh the means of many?

You have the inevitable right not to sail, so why don't I have the right to sail?  

FWIW, I lost my Dad (57 yo) to Adult Leukemia.  I know the difference. 

 

 

 

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@Pima1988  Well who is the good of 1 in this instance? I am not saying that people shouldn't be able to choose, currently we are choosing everything. The problem is people like to blame others for their choice. The second problem is unlike hotels, theme parks, restaurant etc, crusies NEED to have a certain amount of pax to commence. A hotel can open, not get any booking and be marginally fine. Oasis needs to have, x amount of pax, just to pay crew, vendors and other fees. 

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In it's normal role the CDC is a source of data that is available to decision makers.  The CDC will always err on the side of caution because that is it's job to do.  The CDC is just a cog in a bigger machine with other agencies also providing data that decision makers can use.   Consequently everything it does is done with the intent of being overly cautious, consider only health.  

For the recipients of CDC guidance they can weigh that in the decision making process with other agencies whose job it is is to provide perspective from other viewpoints.  A health organization is going to consider only health and put forth guidance that would keep everything closed.  An economic agency is going to strive to reopen everything and get the gears of industry moving.  Somewhere between the two viewpoints is the right thing to do.  That is what every state is doing - considering all viewpoints and deciding their path forward.

The problem is... the cruise industry in lumped under the CDC.  There is no alternative viewpoint for a decision maker to consider.  When it comes to the cruise industry the CDC is the decision maker.  Given their directive to be very conservative and protect health at all costs that is the exclusive viewpoint that the cruise industry is forced to live with.

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Even if the cruiselines don't require a mask, don't forget to bring one if your itinerary includes Key West!

Quote

The Monroe County Board of County Commissioners has voted to make facial coverings mandatory throughout Monroe County, effective immediately.

Facial coverings over the nose and mouth must be worn in all Florida Keys business establishments and other public settings where there is a roof overhead. The ordinance applies to employees and customers. The ordinance contains exceptions when face coverings may be removed while seated to eat and drink in a restaurant or bar and while exercising in a gym if at least six feet away from other people. Children 6 years old or younger are not required to wear a mask. 

Not wearing one can result in a civil citation.  If you read the ordinance this is through June 1, 2021.

From the County Commissioners official website: https://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/1169/COVID-19-Coronavirus

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12 minutes ago, AshleyDillo said:

Even if the cruiselines don't require a mask, don't forget to bring one if your itinerary includes Key West!

Not wearing one can result in a civil citation.  If you read the ordinance this is through June 1, 2021.

From the County Commissioners official website: https://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/1169/COVID-19-Coronavirus

Let’s see how this goes this weekend. I will report back as KW is my weekend home. Last weekend there was not a mask to be seen inside any of the bars. I don’t frequent Duval Street but over the years based on what I have seen, there are no rules. 

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2 hours ago, tonyfsu21 said:

Let’s see how this goes this weekend. I will report back as KW is my weekend home. Last weekend there was not a mask to be seen inside any of the bars. I don’t frequent Duval Street but over the years based on what I have seen, there are no rules. 

It appears that the ordinance was enacted on June 17, 2020, so pretty recent.  Most likely because of the lovely surge in cases we have in Florida.  I'm up in the panhandle and we haven't seen much from it, but now that they back to nearly everything open (at reduced capacity and no mandatory masks) there are businesses closing down left and right as employees are contracting it.

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36 minutes ago, AshleyDillo said:

It appears that the ordinance was enacted on June 17, 2020, so pretty recent.  Most likely because of the lovely surge in cases we have in Florida.  I'm up in the panhandle and we haven't seen much from it, but now that they back to nearly everything open (at reduced capacity and no mandatory masks) there are businesses closing down left and right as employees are contracting it.

Well it was peaceful down here the last few months with everything shut down. I would guess it may happen again. Most of the locals want tourists out (I don’t get that considering it’s a tourist driven economy). I have seen it all down here even this evening with the “ordinance” in place there were people w/o masks in the bars. 

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On 6/18/2020 at 12:55 PM, Ray said:

If i was in charge of a cruiseline i would be looking at Plan B

If CDC are planning to keep us out of US ports then where can we sail from?

Jamaica? Dominican Republic? St Maartan? 

Wouldnt get the whole fleet moving but some is better than none. 

 

I wonder how realistic this is for Royal?  It certainly seems like something to explore. I could see the Bahamas as an origination point if they were open to it considering how many ships visit there already.  It would certainly bring in lots of $ for hotel nights before/after plus the food/merchant spending that would normally follow. The cruise line wouldn’t have to bend to CDC whims. 

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The challenge to operating from another country in the Caribbean is resupplying the ship.  The volume of supplies that get loaded on turn around day is massive. 

For many ports of call ships won't take on potable water due to questionable standards for water treatment and limited quantities of water.  Many Caribbean nations collect rain water but they would never be able to supply a ship with potable water (not all ships have the ability to desalinate water on board).  

Food standards can be questionable in some foreign countries.  When I lived on St Thomas virtually all food was brought in on barges, transferred to trucks and shipped to grocery stores.  Often frozen foods had clearly partially thawed and been refrozen.  It was quite interesting grocery shopping and very expensive due to the additional costs of shipping food.  It was rather disappointing at times and very different compared to grocery shopping on the U.S, mainland.  The cost of living is much higher on an island.  St. Thomas is a U.S. territory, imagine the differences in standards in a foreign nation.

Supplying a ship with fresh food and perishables on a scale to feed thousands for a week on cruise would be a challenge when operating from a small Caribbean nation and super expensive. 

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1 hour ago, Dad2Cue said:

@twangster What about Puerto Rico --- It is a US territory.

Puerto Rico is a very large island, one of the largest in the region.  It also has sizeable cargo movements to the mainland and very good flight options.  As Caribbean islands go it's a major population center.  Since it is a U.S. territory the standards there more closely match those on the mainland.

Unfortunately PR has already proven it will block cruise ships loaded with PR citizens from returning on a ship that left from PR.  As a U.S. territory the CDC does have reach there.  That means it won't work as a bypass to get around the CDC.   

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11 minutes ago, twangster said:

As a U.S. territory the CDC does have reach there.  That means it won't work as a bypass to get around the CDC.   

I have a cruise on Freedom in January that originates in Puerto Rico and goes to the ABC islands.  I was hoping the CDC didn't have any jurisdiction there.

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You've seen my post - An Optimist's View of Where RCL stands -  if you hang out here. I took a couple of swings at what I consider to be the CDC's arbitrary and unjustified No-Sail-Order. There was some good back-and-forths about it being a good idea or not so good to restart cruise ship operations. I want to take another swing at the CDC.

I post on a forum of University of Michigan grads (I'm an alum). Because of my medical background I'm asked a lot of questions about what I think about C-19 and it's impact. To be clear, I've been a reopening advocate for a while and I'm not just pulling stuff out my butt to support that view. I will admit a bias towards reopening. The facts support that the social and economic costs of continuing to immobilize the US as a virus mitigation and containment measure exceed the costs of the disease burden associated with the rising number of new cases attendant to reopenings.

Today, I got asked, what are these costs and how do you do an objective cost/benefit analysis that makes sense to support one position or the other? One way to look at this is to examine hospital admissions from the Emergency Department for C-19 like symptoms in patient's that present with them and have either already tested + for C-19 or were tested in the ED and were +. 

I did this to address another posters view that we may be forced to endure additional economic pain (more shuttering and sheltering) as an off-setting  cost of reopening such reopening that will cause medical costs to rise proportionally with hospital admissions. The poster also responded to my view that declining fatalities are a good proxy measure of virus control and, indeed, that is the case. Fatalities are dropping. He also offered that there is a disease burden other than dying and Ampurp 85 would agree with this in that she asserted there are attributes of C-19 short of dying that can be significant and costly.  

I'm not sure increasing infections equates to increasing hospital admissions that increase medical costs.

I'm positive, though, that not many people who get infected get seriously ill or as my other forum poster and in this forum Ampurp 85 argued that attributes of C-19 short of dying can be significant.  

Assuming that there is a uniform disease presentation between an asymptomatic C-19 patient and one that dies is incorrect. To draw that conclusion, we can look at deaths and hospital admissions globally. We're still holding at global figures that show only 5% of C-19 infections result in death and only 0.0046% are hospitalized. I'm assuming that C-19 cases that get hospitalized would be the ones with significant symptoms. So, most infected patients have little impact in terms of a health care systems costs of dealing with C-19 patients.  

To demonstrate that increasing case numbers do not necessarily mean rising health care costs such that those costs are greater than the economic pain of moving back to sheltering and shuttering, I examined S. FL's stats through 6/20 . Here they are (includes Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade COs):

From 5/18 to 6/20 ED daily visits for C-19 like symptoms rose from 590 - 1210. I'd expect that with the growth rate of infections increasing like it is in FL.

In the same period admissions dropped from 7% to 6%. You'd expect that figure to rise. It fell!

My conclusion is that the hypothesis, increases in both new C-19 case numbers and ED visits for symptoms suggestive of C-19 will increase hospital admissions and therefore will increase C-19 related health care costs, is incorrect.

I also concluded from my analysis that Bar, beach and restaurant closings in S. FL., something the local media is saying needs to be done, were not indicated  Not yet. Let's see how official plans in each of the three S. Fl counties to cuing masking and social distancing along with enforcement works for two weeks.

I just demonstrated that C-19 treatment related hospital costs are probably dropping and increases in "economic pain" (mitigation and containment with a return to sheltering and shuttering) given increased case #s are unjustified.

As I wrote this post I thought, this reasoning applies to the foolishness of CDC's No-Sail-Order. I would imagine that the costs of caring for and transporting of confirmed C-19 cases that were aboard the multiple cruise ships in varying degrees is known right down to the dollar. Although I don't know what that total figure is and certainly it's safe to assume the cruise lines know a dollar figure that is associated with each passenger or crew member that received on-board care or transport, the cost of doing that can not possibly be close to the economic cost of continuing to shutter the cruise lines. Not even close. To put it another way, on a cost basis the economic pain the cruise lines are suffering because of the CDC's No-Sail-Order are likely to be greater than any costs of dealing with a single or multiple C-19 infections occurring on a cruise ship.   

End the No-Sail-Order.

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1 hour ago, JeffB said:

The facts support that the social and economic costs of continuing to immobilize the US as a virus mitigation and containment measure exceed the costs of the disease burden associated with the rising number of new cases attendant to reopenings.

@JeffB I think facts are different depending on the region of the country you are from.  From the prospective of the Midwest,  I think you are correct.  Where I live, a major university medical center with 800 hospital beds was emptied out in anticipation of the surge of cases that never materialized.  Yes, there were some admissions and there were some deaths but nowhere near what was feared.  The economic cost to the hospital was substantial as hospital beds sat empty.   No hospital worker was "overwhelmed" except for when the possibility of layoffs was announced.  My state didn't even "lock down" completely but all were advised to stay home.  

Now, the hospital is open again and the beds are again full ---- things are getting back to normal.

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Thanks for your post. Yes, everything about COVID-19 is regional. One size does not fit all in terms of infection rates, mortality and morbidity, mitigation and containment measures, just about everything to do with C-19. Differences are particularly applicable when it comes to appropriate mitigation efforts. Certain areas at a particular time may need none because case numbers are very low or are zero. Others need much more for the opposite reason - high case numbers and growth rates.

S. FL's C-19 experience is quite representative of more densely populated metro areas such as NYC, Detroit, LA, Dallas, etc., but not entirely. There are even municipality differences in S. FL. Miami is different than Fort Lauderdale is different than Boca. When I did the analysis in my post above, I combined data from all three major hospital systems each in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade. There is a lot of homgeneity across the three counties but still a lot of differences. Maimi Dade has a much lower per capita income, older long term care facilities, more multi-generational housing than Broward or Palm Beach Counties. It is why Miami-Dade has, by far, the highest per-capita infection rate, the highest case fatality rate and its population drives state stats in the same direction as the county C-19 related stats. That's why what might be an appropriate mitigation step in the city of West Palm Beach may not be appropriate for the city of Miami. Monroe County is another example, It includes the FL Keys and has a very low number of infections and a low CFR.  Mitigation and containment measures there that are based on state rates won't be applicable and have to be tailored to fit, for example, Key West's C-19 circumstance. 

It's hard ...... none of this changes the foolishness of the CDC's No-Sail-Order but it does highlight why rises in case numbers globally, in the US or by US state's can not properly inform CDC policy. The cruise industry is an entirely unique segment of the travel and leisure economic sector. That is partly because what it has done and will do to insure that cruise ships will not contribute to disease spread. I'll acknowledge any kind of travel has the potential to spread viral infections. That is proven in the case of SARS-CoV-2. But it makes no sense that resorts, theme parks, sporting events, aircraft, casinos, para-mutual (horse racing) facilities are all approved to operate with the CDC's blessing and the cruise lines are not.

I would bet good money that these facilities will contribute more to disease spread than cruise lines will. But these operations aren't shuttered while cruise operations are. Airlines operating regionally and some internationally depending on hosting country's position won't spread the virus? Of course they will and countries opening their airports have calculated that the costs of bringing thousands of potentially infected airline passengers to their countries that will spread the virus among their citizens is worth it. But it's not worth it for cruise lines? ..... insane. 

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While I did think the lines were being singled out for a bit, my foray back into the real world has began to squash that. I needed to step back and remember that similar is not the same. I think a lot of people were wrong to assume the CDC would lift a ban with no vaccine in place. I mean we all knew of the ban, it hasn't even passed, yet people are acting as if its game over. A little over three months was asked of us, three whole months and people have gone through all the emotions. I know most of us want cruising to resume but the CDC guidance is not foolish. This is not some power play, nor are there nefarious reasons for why cruises aren't allowed to happen. It is as simple as the cruise industry has ALWAYS been held at a higher standard than any on land business, probably because it is an international business....or because it is many businesses. You can't in all honesty compare a cruise ship to Disney, hotels and/or planes. As it is literally all three and more...you sleep, eat gourmet food, ride bumper cars, enjoy theater, swim, gamble and travel to different locations....all on one ship.

States have jurisdiction: so if a hotel or theme park wants to open, they can as long as they get consent and post procedures; most land based businesses are like that. Each state decided if, how and win they would open. The airports never really closed but are bound by bans; I recall reading in Forbes that EU nations won't allow people from a heavily infected nations to travel...putting America on a no list. I believe in the idea just because you can doesn't mean you should. So you could book international flights but you run the risk of not being allowed to enter; not just a quarantine for 2 weeks at your expense. If the CDC hadn't instituted that ban, some lines, or all, would have started cruising with unworkable protocols. I recall reading that CCL has been barely passing inspections....just look at the rust on their ships. The CDC would get blamed for allowing the lines to be garbage people. RCCI's Mariner, despite some garbage people, was probably the cleanest ship I have ever been on; but the CDC couldn't just allow only RCCI to sail. There has been no talk of extending the no sail, so I will no longer bash or speak negatively about the CDC.

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7 hours ago, Ampurp85 said:

While I did think the lines were being singled out for a bit, my foray back into the real world has began to squash that. I needed to step back and remember that similar is not the same. I think a lot of people were wrong to assume the CDC would lift a ban with no vaccine in place. I mean we all knew of the ban, it hasn't even passed, yet people are acting as if its game over. A little over three months was asked of us, three whole months and people have gone through all the emotions. I know most of us want cruising to resume but the CDC guidance is not foolish. This is not some power play, nor are there nefarious reasons for why cruises aren't allowed to happen. It is as simple as the cruise industry has ALWAYS been held at a higher standard than any on land business, probably because it is an international business....or because it is many businesses. You can't in all honesty compare a cruise ship to Disney, hotels and/or planes. As it is literally all three and more...you sleep, eat gourmet food, ride bumper cars, enjoy theater, swim, gamble and travel to different locations....all on one ship.

States have jurisdiction: so if a hotel or theme park wants to open, they can as long as they get consent and post procedures; most land based businesses are like that. Each state decided if, how and win they would open. The airports never really closed but are bound by bans; I recall reading in Forbes that EU nations won't allow people from a heavily infected nations to travel...putting America on a no list. I believe in the idea just because you can doesn't mean you should. So you could book international flights but you run the risk of not being allowed to enter; not just a quarantine for 2 weeks at your expense. If the CDC hadn't instituted that ban, some lines, or all, would have started cruising with unworkable protocols. I recall reading that CCL has been barely passing inspections....just look at the rust on their ships. The CDC would get blamed for allowing the lines to be garbage people. RCCI's Mariner, despite some garbage people, was probably the cleanest ship I have ever been on; but the CDC couldn't just allow only RCCI to sail. There has been no talk of extending the no sail, so I will no longer bash or speak negatively about the CDC.

Problem is there may very well never be a vaccine and even if there is it may not "eliminate the problem" ... common cold has been around a while - no vaccine ... flu has been around a while, there is a vaccine but we still get flu outbreaks and even people who get the vaccine can get the flue if they get the wrong strain ... so saying its fair to wait on a vaccine is just a way of kicking the can down the road indefinitely.

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@jticarruthers I didn't say we were waiting on a vaccine. I said it was illogical to believe the CDC would lift the ban early with nothing in place to curb the virus, like a vaccine. Again similar is not the same. How long has the common cold been around, the flu? We know a lot about both.......and very little about COVID. The CDC wouldn't lift a ban early for any other reason than eradication or a "cure."

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It's possible there may be no vaccine but there is the possibility that society will reach a herd immunity eventually if a vaccine is never realized.  That's not guaranteed either.  

At some point there will likely be some level of balance reached where life can more closely resemble what it was like before CV-19.  Until then the CDC is unfortunately doing the right thing with cruise ships from a perspective of containing virus spread. 

Theme parks are probably best to remain closed right now.  Sporting events with large audiences in close proximity are probably best to remain closed right now.  Music concerts and movie theaters are probably best to remain closed right now.   Even if some areas are opening these items back up right now there is a lot of evidence to suggest that is not the best course of action from a public health perspective.   

So while cruise ships in North America are being kept from sailing by the CDC there is a part of me that acknowledges that is probably the right thing to do right now.

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Ampurp85, you bring up some good points ..... you are correct about Hotels/Resorts, etc. not being like a cruise ship. TBF I think the fundamental or base risk of becoming infected by SARS-CoV-2 is probably higher, perhaps the highest of all conveyances or venues. I also think that because of the scrutiny cruise lines receive and esp. that received during the early phases of the pandemic, risk reduction is a higher priority within the cruise industry than it is within other venues. Of course how effective those risk reduction measures might be remains to be seen. Its hard to objectively evaluate this process.

So, I'm just going to say, all things considered, there is a high probability that infection risk aboard ship is going to be less than or equal to the risk of infection on an aircraft, hotel, resort or theme park where similar dining and entertainment venues are present and distancing and masking requirements are already in place. You may have a different opinion on this and I respect that.

My opinion that the CDC's No-Sail-Order is foolish (inappropriate is a less emotionally charged word to describe it) is based on the comparative risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection between similar venues. It is also based on the likelihood that the cruise lines know all the costs of handling a passenger or crew member testing positive for C-19 and have experience with and protocols in place to do that where other venues we've discussed don't and may be ill-prepared to do so.

I suspect our discussion about this will be moot in a matter of days but it nevertheless is an outlet for the frustration I'm experiencing over the lack of necessity, the arbitrariness of it, inherent in the CDC's actions that amount to an unjustifiable and nearly complete shut down of the cruise lines. We know that the virus has a high rate of transmission. We know that transmission can be mitigated by various measures. I have a high degree of confidence that while the cruise lines can not completely eliminate the risk of transmission, they can substantially reduce it and reduce it more effectively than any comparable venue. As well, they are better prepared to deal with infections that do occur while sailing, limit additional exposures and deal with all of that better than anyone else. JMO, YMMV.   

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4 hours ago, twangster said:

It's possible there may be no vaccine but there is the possibility that society will reach a herd immunity eventually if a vaccine is never realized.  That's not guaranteed either.  

 

Given the infectivity of this virus, Mayo Clinic estimates that 70% of the US population would have to be infected and recover to reach herd immunity.  That is about 230 million infections.  We are currently at 1% of that in 4 months.  So are we to wait 400 more months for natural infection to reach herd immunity?  Given the ~5% fatality rate, the would mean over 12 million deaths.  Better hope that a vaccine is developed.  That said, this is worst case scenario and many things could alter those predictions, which I think that you realize and that don't warrant discussion at this time on this board.

 

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