CDC guidance

[bretts173]

The herd immunity idea which has been floated around at various times seems problematic. Sweden was one country that took this approach and have had a proportionally high number of deaths for their region and size. However random testing was done a couple of weeks ago on a large scale and it was found less than 20% of people had covid antibodies. 

[twangster]

We know so little about this virus and we’ve so severely under tested we know very little about where we really stand.  

In the scenario where there is no vaccine herd immunity is a possibility.  Yes it can take years to reach a point where the herd might get to resemble where it was pre-virus.  Absent of a vaccine this would be nature’s way of handling it, else the whole herd eventually dies.  

I'm not saying herd immunity should be a primary strategy to pursue but in a scenario with no functional vaccine if one can never be found it’s all we’ve got.  

[Meridian]

They have been working on a vaccine for Aids (a virus) for 40 years,  and still nothing.  Covid has a lot of attention,  so maybe they will get lucky or maybe more focus will speed that up,  but chances are they wont anytime soon.  The most likely outcome is effective treatments are developed (just like Aids where most people who get it are treated and get on with life) and this in conjunction with some measures and testing and immunity over time along with the fact most virus's actually get weaker over time will be the most likely way forward.  So you will catch covid,  some people will get nothing,  some will get minor symptoms like we all do now with the flu,  and some hopefully a small amount will need proper treatment,  which will then be widely available so really bad outcomes will be low.

Short of something miraculous - its most likely going to be along these lines. 

[JeffB]

HIV and SARS-CoV-2 (a coronavirus) are different virologic species. The best way to prevent HIV infection remains standard STD prevention measures (condoms). The HIV virus has multiple mechanisms by which it invades target cells, multiplies and subsequently destroys cells in the humeral immune system that reduce HIV viral load. However, it's impact can be effectively managed with therapeutics.  SARS-CoV-2 has one mechanism that it uses to invade target cells and therefore it is easier to develop a preventative vaccine. The best way to prevent infection and the resultant COVID-19 right now remains masks and distancing - the equivalent of condoms to prevent HIV infection and the resultant AIDS. The best way to manage C-19 and keep it from killing people is therapeutics just like medications (therapeutics) are the best way to manage HIV infection and keep it from advancing to AIDS and killing people.

There are several SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates that are likely to be approved no later than October, be manufactured in quantities in the millions of doses shortly thereafter, and be scaleable into the billions of doses by January 2021. This does not mean these vaccine will eradicate SARS-Cov-2; it means it will be out there for general use having been tested and found to be effective in producing antibodies in humans on a small scale. How it will work at scale for billions of humans and how long the antibodies it produces will last and prevent infection won't be known until 2022 and beyond.

There already are therapeutics in use world wide that are significantly reducing the C-19 case fatality rate globally. Available therapeutics and improved medical management are also hastening the recovery of admitted patients allowing them to be discharged sooner thus improving spot ICU shortages. The cooperation between health care providers and scientists to achieve this along with growing knowledge of how to medically manage hospitalized C-19 patients has been unprecedented. I'm putting my money on the hypothesis that while case numbers will rise, the percentage of those that will become seriously ill and require hospitalization will remain about the same, C-19 patients will recover more quickly, and those admitted will have significantly fewer complications. IOW, critical illness and deaths will decline, COVID-19 will become less lethal, and we'll learn to exist with the virus as we do with all the common cold producing coronavirus.

This does not mean, however, that health authorities and official public health policy makers will embrace this hypothesis. Things have already devolved into public health policy decisions based on political pressures and media hand-wringing rather than scientific and medically relevant facts. I think it will take several months of increasing case numbers with decreasing regional disease burdens and decreasing deaths before the reality becomes obvious that C-19 can be managed at a reasonable cost without continuing to limit mobility and business activity. Vaccines will simply add value to that reality.  

[Ampurp85]

I think the major problem is most people lack patience, since everything has become so instant; people expect everything to be so fast. They live in the moment, which is why there is something now called cancel-culture( its stupid and I just learned from a 17 year old who thinks I am old). People have canceled the CDC because they think they are flexing their power with the cruise lines. COVID became known in Dec, then by late Feb the poop hit the fan. We can compare all we want but I said it and @twangster has said; we don't know enough. Add our ignorance with impatience and you have now. Every day a new article implies "this positive trait or this negative trait"....to only do a 360 a few hours or days later. HIV is a virus that affects immune systems, COVID is respiratory; you can avoid one completely. I also believe that there is so much money to be made in just alleviating something like HIV and Cancer' which is why there is no "cure." There is no "real" money to be made in prolonging an airborne and very contagious virus. I think a vaccine might be ready for testing by year's end but whether or not it will work for the 30 possible strains will be a mystery.

I also wholeheartedly believe that cruising will be back in late September or early October. I don't think it will be all the ships or ports but something to get the sea legs back. I don't think the CDC will extend the ban. I think RCCI, hopefully the other lines as well, will use these couple of months to cement everything. I honestly believe RCCI has protocol ready, I think they have been at the drawing boards. However, logistics can be a nightmare and RCCI has dropped the ball once with the whole Allure fiasco. I think the CLIA read the room and is making them come up with sound ways on who, what, where, when and why. It won't be business as usual, they need a clear directive on what ships will start from where. When and how they might get the most bang for their buck. And who will sail and what criteria they might use to satisfy the parameters and the public.