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Boy, did I make the right call (or, We just got (thinly veiled?) confirmation how cruising will resume)


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In @Matt's article today discussing the Q&A by Michael Bayley, there is this key quote (emphasis added):

Quote

"It's pretty logical that when we restart our operations, when everything's good and when we've got everything figured out, that it will be the most popular products on the most popular itineraries with the best ships going to the best destinations."

"I would say the startup, depending upon the circumstances and timing, will be relatively gentle. It won't be a sudden, 'Wow, everything's operating.' I think we'll put our toe in the water and begin operations and make sure everything is perfect, and make sure the guests are having a wonderful time, and making sure we've got all of the protocols established."

"Probably the short product to Perfect Day will be among the first to start."

Bearing in mind this discussed was specifically for Royal Caribbean, it can easily be extrapolated to Celebrity. Which means that there is absolutely no chance in heck, even if sailings resume on July 25-31 after the CDC moratorium expires, that a boutique 2-week open-jaw sailing from NJ to Iceland & Greenland, or its immediate counterpart back to Boston, will be taking place. Maybe we'll see some short sailings out of NJ to Bermuda, either on Royal or Celebrity (but most likely Royal due to a late season start better handled by Anthem in those rougher Atlantic waters); but repositioning sailings won't be happening in the beginning for anyone.

So yeah, totally the right call to Lift & Shift before Celebrity can cancel the cruise and leave me with FCC that won't cover next year's much higher pricing.

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For me, they still need to answer this important question.. and I would think most would want to know the answer before sailing.

What guarantee is there that if the ship has an active, or even suspected case of covid, that the ship be allowed to dock as normal, on time and for passengers to get off.

Most ships that had active cases pretty much quarantined everyone in their rooms.. so it is not like you get an extra 1-2 weeks of cruising time. I just don't believe that US ports, or any ports are going to just be at a point where they accept covid cases and allow everyone to just leave.

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1 hour ago, JLMoran said:

So yeah, totally the right call to Lift & Shift before Celebrity can cancel the cruise and leave me with FCC that won't cover next year's much higher pricing.

I completely agree with you on this. This is precisely why we L&S'd our September Allure cruise, plus not having to make final payment on a cruise which I am pretty sure Royal will eventually cancel.

It's a very bittersweet feeling, though. ?

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15 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

I guess this isn't great news for our Oasis cruise from NJ to Coco Cay Sept. 6th. What a mess this entire thing is. I mean just a mess, total mess.

Great info though. Anywhere we can see this interview? You Tube or something?

I'm holding my sept 20th out of Jersey until the last second.

 

I'm in jersey and in the medical field, I'm pretty confident things will be moving by then.

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32 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

I guess this isn't great news for our Oasis cruise from NJ to Coco Cay Sept. 6th. What a mess this entire thing is. I mean just a mess, total mess.

 

3 minutes ago, bossdog421 said:

I'm holding my sept 20th out of Jersey until the last second.

I'm in jersey and in the medical field, I'm pretty confident things will be moving by then.

I'm holding onto my RLS on OA 08/23/2020 until they cancel too because the only option I want to L&S it to next August is a no-go.  So I will take my 125FCC from this August (I am already assuming that I won't be going) and moving it to my booking for next August.

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Another quote from the Q&A w/ Michael Bayley:

"Through the lens of COVID-19, it's really about density and space. I think people may assume because there's less people on a smaller ship, that makes it better, but that's really not correct. A larger ship has a lot more space."

Bingo! Exactly what I was thinking when some folks felt smaller ships are much "safer" or "better" to sail on under these circumstances.

Density is the absolute key. I'd much rather be spread out on a huge Oasis class ship with all of the ocean view and interior balconies, all of the neighborhoods like Central Park and the Boardwalk, huge split pool deck, huge mostly open solarium, huge sports area, etc. Tons of dining options to spread out... on and on. The smaller, older ships are much more limited when it comes to open air deck space and number of balconies, but they'll figure it out!

 

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21 minutes ago, bossdog421 said:

I'm holding my sept 20th out of Jersey until the last second.

 

I'm in jersey and in the medical field, I'm pretty confident things will be moving by then.

Me too, I really want to go. May 10 was cancelled on us and we rescheduled for Sept so it's something we really want to do. 

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1 hour ago, bossdog421 said:

I'm holding my sept 20th out of Jersey until the last second.

 

I'm in jersey and in the medical field, I'm pretty confident things will be moving by then.

I hope you're right! ?

We're going back and forth... will probably hold out on any decision to Lift & Shift our 10/04/20 Oasis sailing until mid-July.

 

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4 hours ago, Shari said:

Did you Lift and Shift to next year's cruise?

Yup, L&S to Aug 1, 2021. Strictly speaking, not done yet -- my TA still hasn't sent me the updated invoice and I also don't see the update on Celebrity. But I have told him that I definitely want to do it, and I'm assuming it's just a matter of him (or his staff) getting through to Celebrity around ridiculous call times and making it happen. But I'm confident it will be done before Royal announces a cancellation of cruises past July 31.

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14 hours ago, JohnK6404 said:

Another quote from the Q&A w/ Michael Bayley:

"Through the lens of COVID-19, it's really about density and space. I think people may assume because there's less people on a smaller ship, that makes it better, but that's really not correct. A larger ship has a lot more space."

Bingo! Exactly what I was thinking when some folks felt smaller ships are much "safer" or "better" to sail on under these circumstances.

Density is the absolute key. I'd much rather be spread out on a huge Oasis class ship with all of the ocean view and interior balconies, all of the neighborhoods like Central Park and the Boardwalk, huge split pool deck, huge mostly open solarium, huge sports area, etc. Tons of dining options to spread out... on and on. The smaller, older ships are much more limited when it comes to open air deck space and number of balconies. They'll figure it out!

 

And this points to what my friend (former hotel director on Oasis) guessed that oasis class would go first. I would imagine Mariner and Navigator as well. 

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I also picked up that he planned to be on Allure for the President’s Cruise October 25. Of course that could have just been “throw them all a bone” type thing but that’s really encouraging since it’s a European (med) cruise. 
 

Surely by then they’d have a couple months of sailings under their belt before embarking on such a huge event as President’s cruise. 

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15 hours ago, RCIfan1912 said:

I guess this isn't great news for our Oasis cruise from NJ to Coco Cay Sept. 6th.

I would think it is the complete opposite.  

Your cruise checks off 2 items right off the bat.  Best ship and going to Coco Cay.  The ship also checks off the mark regarding density since it has Central Park and Boardwalk.  Plus a ton of restaurants.  Everything that Michael Bayley stated in his Q & A.

36 minutes ago, Jill said:

Density is the absolute key. I'd much rather be spread out on a huge Oasis class ship with all of the ocean view and interior balconies, all of the neighborhoods like Central Park and the Boardwalk, huge split pool deck, huge mostly open solarium, huge sports area, etc. Tons of dining options to spread out... on and on. The smaller, older ships are much more limited when it comes to open air deck space and number of balconies. They'll figure it out!

Now had you said you were going on Adventure than maybe I would agree with you because Adventure, as intimate as it is, only has 3 specialty dining options, 4 of you count JR and only 2 pools.  

For me, regarding sailing out of Bayonne, I wonder where this places Anthem.  She has everything on the check list, minus 1.  The neighborhoods.  The one true negative I have always had with Anthem is the Esplanade.  No need to wait in line to drive the bumper cars on a sea day when they are having their sidewalk sales, just go down to the Esplanade! 

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Here's a question regarding what Michael Bayley stated and looking at Cape Liberty.

"It's pretty logical that when we restart our operations, when everything's good and when we've got everything figured out, that it will be the most popular products on the most popular itineraries with the best ships going to the best destinations.

 

Typically the ships out of Bayonne during their season will sail 1 trip to NE and the next sailing will than go to the Caribbean.  We all expect that Canada will not open anytime soon for cruising.  However, I wonder if they will just change the itinerary and skip Canada.  They could stop at Boston, Portland and Bar Harbor.   

I query this because he said most popular destinations and best ships.  Oasis and Anthem both sail out of Liberty.  They can send Oasis northbound and Anthem southbound, than repeat like they usually do, with Oasis southbound while Anthem goes northbound.  

I get why he stated Coco Cay 1st, but again, I pose this because from a social distancing aspect I doubt they will have multiple large ships at Coco Cay on the same day.  

Plus, the NE cruises are very popular because not everyone wants to be on a beach,  and my best guess would be by Aug. 1 all of the US ports for that itinerary would be open.  

I also think there is 1 more reason why they maybe looking deep into that itinerary.  HURRICANES.  Let's assume they start July 26th.  That is peak hurricane season.  It allows them to double down.  If a hurricane is barreling down on Coco Cay, they just sail out up north.  

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11 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

my best guess would be by Aug. 1 all of the US ports for that itinerary would be open.

That's entirely possible, but if NJ doesn't open the port it's all moot. Hudson County, where Bayonne is located, is one of the larger hotspots and includes Jersey City and Hoboken, the county's largest cities. While Cape Liberty is quite isolated, as others have noted, that by itself may not be enough to convince the governor or the county leadership to reopen it and risk having another flare-up from an influx of tourists.

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As of tomorrow (5/15), Maryland's shifting from "Stay at Home" to "Safer at Home". We're basically beginning Phase One of the four-phase reopening plan. This one was based on two weeks of data. So, if we continue the trend, we'll move forward in two-week chunks. Of course, the plan makes no mention of what phase would include the reopening of the Cruise Maryland Terminal in Baltimore.

My original cruise that brought me to RCCL (9 nights aboard Grandeur to Canada/NE from Baltimore) would've been leaving today.

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10 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

to convince the governor or the county leadership to reopen it and risk having another flare-up from an influx of tourists.

You are right.  The problem NJ has is your governor! 

Look at the fight he had regarding opening golf courses.  It actually made national news due to his refusal to open them, when every state surrounding NJ, minus NY never closed them.  You can go golfing in VA, but no hair cuts even by apptmt only.  RI tried to stop people from entering their state if they had out of state plates on their car, but you could still go golfing!

That being said, it was amazing how as soon as he made national news by the Golf Association venting, he reversed direction and opened all of the courses in NJ the next day!

I think if your governor folded to the Golf Association, he will fold to the cruise lines.  My opinion is that RCL will pressure him and get all of the unions associated with them to do the same.  He will make national news again.  I can see it now on the news.  RCL rep or a dock union rep says NCL is sailing out of NYC, the true epi-center, but the Governor of NJ will not open Bayonne, a spit eye away.   

Plus, if he opens up the Jersey shores by August, how on earth could he defend not opening Cape Liberty?  I am a Jersey girl.  You have NYers at Point Pleasant/Seaside Heights/Asbury/Belmar non-stop,  and I am talking just for the day.  Just drive on any given Sat or Sun. and for every 1 NJ plate you see a NY plate.

 

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2 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

RCL rep or a dock union rep says NCL is sailing out of NYC, the true epi-center, but the Governor of NJ will not open Bayonne, a spit eye away.

Andrew Cuomo has shown he is no push-over, and all accounts say that Murphy is working closely with him to coordinate reopening. So if Cuomo says he will not reopen the cruise ports in NYC until whatever date or conditions, then they will flat-out not open, and the union reps and cruise lobby can go pound sand. If that happens, you can bet Murphy won't re-open Cape Liberty until the same time. The example you gave above would just be done in reverse if he did that.

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10 minutes ago, Chadster said:

As of tomorrow (5/15), Maryland's shifting from "Stay at Home" to "Safer at Home". We're basically beginning Phase One of the four-phase reopening plan. This one was based on two weeks of data. So, if we continue the trend, we'll move forward in two-week chunks. Of course, the plan makes no mention of what phase would include the reopening of the Cruise Maryland Terminal in Baltimore.

My original cruise that brought me to RCCL (9 nights aboard Grandeur to Canada/NE from Baltimore) would've been leaving today.

My cruise leaving tomorrow out of NJ was initially very similar, only 6 nights.  But Canada has closed their ports.  They set a new itinerary to Bermuda, which would have been great, but then they just basically gave it the old "its over, Johnny"

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11 minutes ago, Chadster said:

As of tomorrow (5/15), Maryland's shifting from "Stay at Home" to "Safer at Home". We're basically beginning Phase One of the four-phase reopening plan. This one was based on two weeks of data. So, if we continue the trend, we'll move forward in two-week chunks.

Yeah, but the problem you have for MD is you all thought going to the  crab market in DC and not socially distancing or wearing masks was a good idea!  ?  

VA is going the same route as MD with almost the identical roll out.  

11 minutes ago, Chadster said:

Of course, the plan makes no mention of what phase would include the reopening of the Cruise Maryland Terminal in Baltimore.

I highly doubt that even if they open the port, RCL is going to place it on the top of their list.  I would bet it will be 1 of the last. I say this because it is close to NJ and only offers 1 ship, whereas, Liberty has multiple RCL ships, plus Celebrity too.

 

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12 hours ago, JLMoran said:

Yup, L&S to Aug 1, 2021. Strictly speaking, not done yet -- my TA still hasn't sent me the updated invoice and I also don't see the update on Celebrity. But I have told him that I definitely want to do it, and I'm assuming it's just a matter of him (or his staff) getting through to Celebrity around ridiculous call times and making it happen. But I'm confident it will be done before Royal announces a cancellation of cruises past July 31.

We will be on the return cruise starting August 15, 2021.  See you in Southampton (maybe).

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4 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

I highly doubt that even if they open the port, RCL is going to place it on the top of their list.  I would bet it will be 1 of the last. I say this because it is close to NJ and only offers 1 ship, whereas, Liberty has multiple RCL ships, plus Celebrity too.

 

Yup -- which is why I'm extra-glad that my first two scheduled cruises are out of Boston in October and NJ in November. Hopefully by my Christmas cruise, Baltimore will be back in the swing of things

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17 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

You are right.  The problem NJ has is your governor! 

Look at the fight he had regarding opening golf courses.  It actually made national news due to his refusal to open them, when every state surrounding NJ, minus NY never closed them.  You can go golfing in VA, but no hair cuts even by apptmt only.  RI tried to stop people from entering their state if they had out of state plates on their car, but you could still go golfing!

That being said, it was amazing how as soon as he made national news by the Golf Association venting, he reversed direction and opened all of the courses in NJ the next day!

I think if your governor folded to the Golf Association, he will fold to the cruise lines.  My opinion is that RCL will pressure him and get all of the unions associated with them to do the same.  He will make national news again.  I can see it now on the news.  RCL rep or a dock union rep says NCL is sailing out of NYC, the true epi-center, but the Governor of NJ will not open Bayonne, a spit eye away.   

Plus, if he opens up the Jersey shores by August, how on earth could he defend not opening Cape Liberty?  I am a Jersey girl.  You have NYers at Point Pleasant/Seaside Heights/Asbury/Belmar non-stop,  and I am talking just for the day.  Just drive on any given Sat or Sun. and for every 1 NJ plate you see a NY plate.

 

Beaches here is NJ including the shore are gonna open by memorial day. I think Cape Liberty will be open by August. That doesn't mean ships will sail, CDC has say in this too. Hopefully though, we are on Oasis in Sept. 

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6 minutes ago, Shari said:

We will be on the return cruise starting August 15, 2021.  See you in Southampton (maybe).

Only if we pass each other in the terminal. I still want to try and get to Ireland after the trip, so I'm going to be spending the next several months looking at transportation options from Southampton to Dublin. A quick look at Apple Maps tells me it's a nearly 9-hour land trip, first by car to Holyhead in Wales, then a ferry ride to Dublin; guessing that we'd have to look at some kind of flight to keep the timing reasonable.

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3 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

looking at transportation options from Southampton to Dublin.  guessing that we'd have to look at some kind of flight to keep the timing reasonable.

Southampton does have an airport and, in the past, there were flights from there to Dublin but I'm not sure whether there still are (or will be) when you travel, not least since the airline that operated almost all of the flights out of it (Flybe) went bust a few months ago (even before Covid).

However, it is quite easy to get to London from Southampton and you will have many flight options from there to Dublin.

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@JLMoran

I agree they have to work closely together because of the amount of NJ residents that work in NYC.  Heck, my SIL works in NYC, and we think she is crazy bc she commutes there from Hamilton.  That is a haul, she could commute to Philly faster!  My SIL takes NJ Transit into NYC, hops on a subway to the Wall St district.  Imagine how many tourists she will come in contact with every single day.  Do you really think that once NYC opens the tourists aren't going to visit the famous Bull on Wall St and touch it, or buy a dirty dog from a street vendor?  She will be on the same streets and mass transit just like the tourist from California that flew there, or the tourist that drove from NC staying at The Pierre in Manhattan.

However,  I still say if his defense is tourism, than he cannot open the beaches and keep Liberty closed.  I think the businesses at the shores will start revolting right after Memorial Day.  Let's be honest, Hurricane Sandy decimated their businesses only a few yrs ago.  They need the shores to open.  They will place pressure on him.  Hence, if he opens the beaches, which will include tourists, than where is his defense?

If he opens the beaches than Great Adventure will cry fowl and demand that they let them open too.  People aka tourists from PA and NY will be there.  

In essence, it is a slippery slope.  Either every single thing has to remain close or he has to open.  

I think you are correct, they will work in tandem, like they are doing in No VA/MD and DC. 

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17 hours ago, bossdog421 said:

I'm holding my sept 20th out of Jersey until the last second.

 

I'm in jersey and in the medical field, I'm pretty confident things will be moving by then.

You and me both ..... I'm not losing hope, yet, on the 20th.

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30 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

Beaches here is NJ including the shore are gonna open by memorial day. I think Cape Liberty will be open by August. That doesn't mean ships will sail, CDC has say in this too. Hopefully though, we are on Oasis in Sept. 

I agree, in the end it comes down to the CDC, which brings me back to my  point/defense.

If the CDC says sailing can resume and the NJ governor opens the beaches, South Street Seaport and Great Adventure, how can he use the fear of tourism as a factor, especially if the CDC gave the all clear for sailing.

I see the huge outcry from those that work at the ports from 1 more aspect.  Anyone in NJ knows that Bayonne is like Baltimore.  You have the huge Maersk container ships bringing in products from around the world located right next door.  If they allow those dock workers that are now in direct contact with crews that just sailed back from China with a massive ship filled with cargo containers, how can you not allow the cruise ships?  Same can be said with that lovely odor you smell on the NJTPKE...you know it...the refineries.  NJ does not produce oil, but it is known for its refineries.  Those cargo ships are coming from places like AK, and unless something has changed that I don't know of, their crew in the eyes of tourism would be considered a tourist since they are coming from AK!

I also agree I think it will be open by Aug., but just maybe Anthem and Oasis will sail.  I just can't see Adventure sailing when it opens up.  I can see RCL cancelling all Adventure cruises from Liberty this yr., bc usually she sails south by end of Oct.  I can't recall if she is being used for crew member repatriation.  If she is, they may just bring her to her fall/winter port early.  I know she was suppose to go in for amplification before she hit Galveston to replace Liberty.   I doubt the amplification will occur.

 

 

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2 hours ago, JLMoran said:

A quick look at Apple Maps tells me it's a nearly 9-hour land trip, first by car to Holyhead in Wales, then a ferry ride to Dublin; guessing that we'd have to look at some kind of flight to keep the timing reasonable.

I was originally traveling to England and Ireland this year and had looked into this, too! Once I saw how long it was to Holyhead on the train I was researching flying instead and the Irish Aer Lingus flights are pretty cheap!  

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7 hours ago, Hutcherl said:

8-3-20 Independence, 5 day,  only CoCoCay and Labadee Stops.  Fingers crossed that this shorter cruise with only their private island itinerary kind of fits the description of what he talked about.  One can hope! 

I booked the same itinerary 9/27/20 - 10/3/20 for my honeymoon and I'm thinking the private islands are definitely a tick in the positive column for us. 

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