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5 reasons why I’m bullish on the return of cruising


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Makes some good points...….what it will all depend on really is how easy/hard it is to travel to get to the cruise port. From out of state to out of country travel, there are going to be a lot of hoops and expenses now that weren't there before.

 

I am not worried about cruising at all...I just dont know if I will be able to afford to get there or legally be able to travel till there is a vaccine at least. That's how its sounding in my province and country at this point.

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33 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

what it will all depend on really is how easy/hard it is to travel to get to the cruise port.

1000+ this statement.

We live in the mid-atlantic region, so for us, we actually could drive to many ports.  Miami would be a killer drive @15 hrs, but we also have NJ and Baltimore to sail from without taking an airplane.  

To add onto your thought of getting to the cruise port.  I wonder if they will open ports in stages, not because of the state, but due to location.  For example:

  •   Open Miami up 1st and due to the proximity, FLL can be put on the back burner.
  •  Open Cape Liberty and leave Baltimore to the bottom of the list
  •  Galveston is a tricky one.  It is really out there from airports, but mid-westerns can drive there.

I agree with the author of the article.  I feel bullish.  I look at my kids (25-30 yrs old) they will not have an issue to get on a ship IF the price was right.  If the cruise lines do drop lower than an all inclusive they are going to sail.  This will allow these cruise lines to grow in the future bc they hooked them at a younger age.  My kids would love to cruise, but right now it is cheaper to go to KW or New Orleans and rent an Air B&B.    

I am 55, and I will have no issue at all getting back on a ship, vaccine or not.  

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

1000+ this statement.

We live in the mid-atlantic region, so for us, we actually could drive to many ports.  Miami would be a killer drive @15 hrs, but we also have NJ and Baltimore to sail from without taking an airplane.  

To add onto your thought of getting to the cruise port.  I wonder if they will open ports in stages, not because of the state, but due to location.  For example:

  •   Open Miami up 1st and due to the proximity, FLL can be put on the back burner.
  •  Open Cape Liberty and leave Baltimore to the bottom of the list
  •  Galveston is a tricky one.  It is really out there from airports, but mid-westerns can drive there.

I agree with the author of the article.  I feel bullish.  I look at my kids (25-30 yrs old) they will not have an issue to get on a ship IF the price was right.  If the cruise lines do drop lower than an all inclusive they are going to sail.  This will allow these cruise lines to grow in the future bc they hooked them at a younger age.  My kids would love to cruise, but right now it is cheaper to go to KW or New Orleans and rent an Air B&B.    

I am 55, and I will have no issue at all getting back on a ship, vaccine or not.  

 

 

Port Everglades and Port Of Miami are 28 miles apart. Doubt they open one w/o the other considering many people fly into each respective international airport dependent on cost and then drive to their cruise departure port. Besides that, both Broward & Miami Dade counties mimic each others moves so if one port opens the other will follow. 

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2 minutes ago, tonyfsu21 said:

Port Everglades and Port Of Miami are 28 miles apart. Doubt they open one w/o the other considering many people fly into each respective international airport dependent on cost and then drive to their cruise departure port. Besides that, both Broward & Miami Dade counties mimic each others moves so if one port opens the other will follow. 

That is where I disagree with you based on everything you just stated.

If they follow Carnival's lead of limited roll out for at least the 1st month or 2, than why open Port Everglades since it IS less than 30 miles away?  My hubby and I have sailed out of Miami b4 and will sail again out of Miami next May.  However, bc it is cheaper to fly into FLL and we absolutely hate flying in/out of Miami, we will fly to FLL and uber to Port Miami.  

  •  I doubt I am the odd duck that does this.  

If they are going to roll out slowly, why open up Everglades before opening, Bayonne or Baltimore?  Wouldn't it make more financial sense if all ports open up at the same time, but limited ships to spread the ships to other ports?  If someone wants to go to the Caribbean they can force the passengers onto specific ships, in turn have a higher occupancy rate.  If you want to sail out of FL, are you really going to be picky over which port?  It does not matter if these counties mimic each other.  It matters to RCL the ROI.

  •  I work retail, and prior to this, our company was starting to close stores.  Why?  Because in my area, we had sister stores that were 10-15 miles away from each other.  The lower selling stores were closed bc the company knew that loyal customers would drive the extra 10 miles to another store.  It was a cost saving aspect.   That rings true for cruising too.  If they are going to sail, and their only option is Miami, than they will just accept as fact.

Now, also add on why I say opening Bayonne before Everglades.  Let's assume they will still sail north to NE/Canada.  They don't do that cruise from FL.  This also follows why I think Bayonne will open before Baltimore.

  •  Bayonne and Baltimore both do the NE cruises.  The bridge issue from Baltimore limits the size of the ship.  Anthem cannot sail out of Baltimore, but Enchantment (LADY G's replacement) is sailing out of Bayonne.  Between Baltimore and Bayonne it is a 2- 2 1/2 hr car ride.  Doable for people driving.  Both have airports close enough to the terminals.
  •  It will be interesting to see which of the 8 ships Carnival rolls out.  Carnival Pride sails out of Baltimore.  Carnival also sails out of NY/NJ.  

I placed Galveston on the IF list because of Miami.  I float back and forth on that one.

  •  Mid westerners can drive to that port easier than anyone wanting/needing to fly in.  These would be the same people that might not want to fly to Miami, but willing to sail.  It is a unique market.
  •  However, ships sailing out of Miami also go to Mexico.  

So, in the end what would you recommend RCL to do if you are only rolling out a limited amount of ships, limited funds, and multiple ports, with several in driving distance of each other?  IMPO, and that is worth $2.00 or a small coffee from Starbucks, it would make more sense to do the breath method over the depth method regarding ports.  Breath being open 1 in FL, 1 mid-atlantic, and Texas and forcing passengers into limited numbers of ships sailing = higher occupancy rate.  Yours is depth with opening both in FL, which to me = more ships sailing with lower occupancy rate.

.

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41 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

 

I placed Galveston on the IF list because of Miami.  I float back and forth on that one.

  •  Mid westerners can drive to that port easier than anyone wanting/needing to fly in.  These would be the same people that might not want to fly to Miami, but willing to sail.  It is a unique market.
  •  However, ships sailing out of Miami also go to Mexico.  

 

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PIMA,


I'm confused by the Galveston comment.  I live here north of Houston.  Why would it be easier for Mid Westerners to drive to that port than fly?  IAH airport, is a 45 min to 1 hour drive to the Galveston port and the Cruise ships will pick up flyers from the airport at No Charge and transfer them down.  This seems more logical than driving 10-15 hours.  

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I agree, it makes sense to have 1 Fla, 1 Mid-Atlantic, and Texas, to start. Baltimore vs. Bayonne,  My opinion would be Bayonne has more flexibility, can handle a larger variety of ships. They do roughly the same cruise areas and I assume a higher occupancy than Baltimore. 

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22 minutes ago, dejavu21 said:

Why would it be easier for Mid Westerners to drive to that port than fly? 

My point was that if you fear flying due to CoVid and are from the mid-west, than it is more likely you will change your cruise from Miami, where you have to fly to Galveston where you can drive.  

My assumption is going with limited ports, limited ships.  For RCL it is a balancing act regarding ROI.  They need to roll out ships that will give them best return.

  •  Maybe Baltimore will open up before Bayonne even if both states allow them to open ports at the same time.  It could happen because Baltimore port fees are less.  Lady G books out at a higher occupancy.  Flip it and Bayonne could be going first because Anthem is larger, and their research shows that passengers want the bells and whistles on a newer ship compared to the "intimate" feeling on Lady G or Enchantment.

I am sure there are bean counters right now working day in day out figuring out the algorithm for which ships and ports that will give the company the highest ROI.  They will rack and stack them. It could be they open all ports, but only 1 or 2 ships sailing out of each port.  It  could be they open specific ports with multiple ships.  It could be...it could be...it could be..

I am betting right now RCL has multiple plans floating around in the hierarchy's emails.  They are just weighing options.  If Canada says no cruises until Sept., than that impacts Bayonne and Baltimore.  If Haiti continues with their demands for their own citizens that are in the US. how does that impact Labadee?  

I started sailing in college, back in the late 80s.  Carnival would sail out of NY for 3 nights and it was called the cruise to Nowhere.  I wonder if they will need to bring that option back again!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Pima1988 said:

My point was that if you fear flying due to CoVid and are from the mid-west, than it is more likely you will change your cruise from Miami, where you have to fly to Galveston where you can drive.  

My assumption is going with limited ports, limited ships.  For RCL it is a balancing act regarding ROI.  They need to roll out ships that will give them best return.

  •  Maybe Baltimore will open up before Bayonne even if both states allow them to open ports at the same time.  It could happen because Baltimore port fees are less.  Lady G books out at a higher occupancy.  Flip it and Bayonne could be going first because Anthem is larger, and their research shows that passengers want the bells and whistles on a newer ship compared to the "intimate" feeling on Lady G or Enchantment.

I am sure there are bean counters right now working day in day out figuring out the algorithm for which ships and ports that will give the company the highest ROI.  They will rack and stack them. It could be they open all ports, but only 1 or 2 ships sailing out of each port.  It  could be they open specific ports with multiple ships.  It could be...it could be...it could be..

I am betting right now RCL has multiple plans floating around in the hierarchy's emails.  They are just weighing options.  If Canada says no cruises until Sept., than that impacts Bayonne and Baltimore.  If Haiti continues with their demands for their own citizens that are in the US. how does that impact Labadee?  

I started sailing in college, back in the late 80s.  Carnival would sail out of NY for 3 nights and it was called the cruise to Nowhere.  I wonder if they will need to bring that option back again!

 

 

Seems like you have a lot of thought put into your analysis and I can’t say the same for mine. I do however have the advantage of walking into my backyard and counting the ships in Port Everglades everyday clearly indicating the Port has not shut down. I understand it’s provisioning & fuel stops prompting the porting but I find it hard to believe you don’t restart cruises at two of the top cruise ports in the country. To boot, our local economy depends on cruising (especially the Oasis class ships on the weekends). I would bet the ranch they both resume cruises at the same time. 

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I'm a little confused about the recurring theme to get higher occupancy rates on the ships.  

It's a little counter intuitive, but I believe the cruise lines aren't really looking to fill the ships, at least not right away.  In fact, I think they'll limit occupancy to about 50% until they can work out social distancing and prove that cruising really is safe.

If that's really the intent, then having good, open airports nearby is less of a concern.  Taking Galveston as an extreme example, more than 70% of the cruise passengers normally drive to the port of Galveston.  Therefore, getting to 50% occupancy with just drive ins would be very doable.

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If your talking just one port in Miami what ships do you think royal would start with?

I only ask bc independence right now does 5 night trips to coco cay and labadee (or labadee and Falmouth)

To me this is a great iteniary to start with given its just private island and section of haiti.

But Indy is out of fort Lauderdale

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4 hours ago, steverk said:

I'm a little confused about the recurring theme to get higher occupancy rates on the ships.  

It's a little counter intuitive, but I believe the cruise lines aren't really looking to fill the ships, at least not right away.  In fact, I think they'll limit occupancy to about 50% until they can work out social distancing and prove that cruising really is safe.

If that's really the intent, then having good, open airports nearby is less of a concern.  Taking Galveston as an extreme example, more than 70% of the cruise passengers normally drive to the port of Galveston.  Therefore, getting to 50% occupancy with just drive ins would be very doable.

I'm not sure they can make money on 50% occupancy in the long term, short term? 

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TPG is a credit-card hawking shill who is only writing about cruises because he can't fly anywhere to review a business class product at the moment.  that said...

although I'd get on a boat tomorrow if I could, I'm a little more pessimistic that a rebound is likely to happen quickly.  This will be as easy or as hard as governments want to make it.  and unfortunately I feel that cruise lines have been singled out by the CDC and other entities.

I'll wear my mask to Costco, but after having it on for 30 minutes the other day, I felt there's no way I'd get on a plane until the masks aren't mandatory (and I work for an airline).  if cruising regulations now include masks at all times, im out.  if i have to get a q-tip jammed up my nostril at the port, I'm out.  if a 1-week cruise turns into a 3-week vacation because I have to self-quarantine for 14 days when I get back, im out.  

unfortunately I feel based on the "FPD stigma" (which we all know is bogus), all of these things, and more, could be on the table for a return to cruising.  God I hope I'm wrong.  

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It really does not matter if the ships are at 40% or 75%.. in close quarters and that the virus can be passed through respiratory droplets then an infected person is going to spread it.

I still have not read a single thing on what will happen at all these ports, and the home port, if there is a suspected covid case onboard a ship. 

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22 hours ago, ehw51 said:

I agree, it makes sense to have 1 Fla, 1 Mid-Atlantic, and Texas, to start. Baltimore vs. Bayonne,  My opinion would be Bayonne has more flexibility, can handle a larger variety of ships. They do roughly the same cruise areas and I assume a higher occupancy than Baltimore. 

A potential game changer there could be, which state opens first ..... Both areas are hot spots .... and when you factor in when Bermuda reopens.... all those decisions could play into a decision.  Oh, and regarding the bridges coming out of Baltimore -- for future reference, a Radiance Class ship would fit there too (they're about the same size as the Pride)

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14 hours ago, tydas said:

I'm not sure they can make money on 50% occupancy in the long term, short term? 

The 50% may be more than just a number .... It could be used as a perception to the general public that cruising is back .... as they say, Perception is Reality.  The long term goal will be, letting people know that cruising is safe and back open for business.  Could there be a short term lost in revenue?  Possible.  But the long term benefit could possibly outweigh that short term deficit.

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5 minutes ago, coneyraven said:

Oh, and regarding the bridges coming out of Baltimore -- for future reference, a Radiance Class ship would fit there too (they're about the same size as the Pride)

This is where I part with you.

Enchantment has sailed out of Bayonne, but Anthem or Oasis cannot sail out of Baltimore due to the bridge height.  Adventure, Oasis and Anthem all sail out of NJ.  Anthem and Oasis barely clears the Verrazano Bridge.  No way they can clear the bridges out of Baltimer.

Thus, I can see Baltimore being  brought on line later than Bayonne,  later than probably Galveston and Everglades.  They have only 1 ship from Baltimore.  People in surrounding states can easily go to Bayonne.  Again,  Enchantment (Lady G's replacement) can sail out of NJ, and do the same itinerary.  Look at Baltimore's parking lot compared to Cape Liberty.

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14 hours ago, tydas said:

I'm not sure they can make money on 50% occupancy in the long term, short term? 

You're definitely right in the log term, but I think for the short term it would make sense, even if they lose money.  For one thing 50% is better than the 0% they are currently bringing in, so it could slow the burn a little.  But, as some others have pointed out, the cruise industry needs some "burn in" time... a chance to try their new procedures to verify the effectiveness, and to prove to the CDC, cruising public, et al, that they are on top of this.  

I suspect many die hard cruisers would jump at a chance for a half empty ship (half-empty Oasis class - Sign me up!), which is what I am inferring from the number of Casino offerings, especially free cruises.  I suspect RCI is trying to keep the regulars on the hook because it'll be harder for them to attract new cruisers for a while.  I also think this is a stronger argument for them starting to sail with the smaller ships, but some bean counters somewhere probably know exactly what number of passengers make each ship profitable.  

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If RC wants to ever get back to what it once was, if that's possible, it needs to gain peoples trust back that cruising is safe again. And not just die hard cruisers, but first timers as well. Breaking even in the short run, should be the goal. I don't think social distancing is going to go away anytime soon. This as we have all seen, can be pretty impossible in some situations on a cruise. Hello WJ on embarkation day, I'm talking to you! RC's long term success and survival depends on short term sacrifices. IMHO.

 

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2 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

This is where I part with you.

Enchantment has sailed out of Bayonne, but Anthem or Oasis cannot sail out of Baltimore due to the bridge height.  Adventure, Oasis and Anthem all sail out of NJ.  Anthem and Oasis barely clears the Verrazano Bridge.  No way they can clear the bridges out of Baltimer.

Thus, I can see Baltimore being  brought on line later than Bayonne,  later than probably Galveston and Everglades.  They have only 1 ship from Baltimore.  People in surrounding states can easily go to Bayonne.  Again,  Enchantment (Lady G's replacement) can sail out of NJ, and do the same itinerary.  Look at Baltimore's parking lot compared to Cape Liberty.

Totally understand that ..... if a Radiance Class ship would ever arrive, we'd be looking at Brilliance or one of her sisters ...

I guess, at the end of the day, if Maryland opens before New Jersey ..... there's your answer.  And if the opposite happens, there too lies the answer.

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1 minute ago, coneyraven said:

I guess, at the end of the day, if Maryland opens before New Jersey ..... there's your answer.  And if the opposite happens, there too lies the answer.

I think NJ will open at the same time.

Look at NJ and how the governor folded last week regarding golf courses after the golf association took it to the national news (CNN, NBC and Fox).  Every surrounding state had their public and private courses open, but NJ.  If MD opens up their cruising ports at 8 a.m., by 9 a.m  NJ long shoreman reps will be on the news yelling about how their governor is denying them the right to work.

Spit on me once, shame on you, spit on me twice, shame on me comes to my mind.  

People forget or don't realize that Bayonne is a HUGE seaport.  IMPO much larger than Baltimore.  

  • Baltimore with or without cruise lines will be a place of tourism.  I live in No VA.  We go there for a weekend away bc of the Inner Harbor (75 min drive).  Nobody in NJ would go to Bayonne for a weekend get away.  Hoboken, maybe, but not Bayonne.
  •  To drill the point even further.  Anybody that has sailed out of both can see the difference. Driving up to Liberty port is like driving into no mans land.  For 1 of the most densely populated states it is laughable.  Trumps golf course is on the right.  A failing development is on the left and than you see the port, where it will take 45 mins to get to the porter bc it was sooooo poorly designed.  Baltimore BOOM they have electronic signs saying Cruise terminal. They only have the Pride and Lady G.  Inner Harbor, MD Ravens, Orioles, are all in this area. The economy will survive in Baltimore without the cruise lines.
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21 minutes ago, FManke said:

If RC wants to ever get back to what it once was, if that's possible, it needs to gain peoples trust back that cruising is safe again. And not just die hard cruisers, but first timers as well.

This!

My 3 kids (25 to 30 yrs old) envy us because we cruise.  For them it is cheaper to fly and rent and air B&B. We keep saying to them that in the end of the day it is the same cost for a 7 nights, but the difference is every a.m.  we get to sea a new beach and we don't have to make our dinners.

  •  Might be just my kids, but they see the low number/cost.  IOWS, airfare is 250, Air B&B is 500.  750.  Yet, they forgot to add in food for breakfast and lunch (plus making it) going out to dinner, buying drinks, and any excursion.  They could sail on Symphony, interior cabin for probably less than an Air B&B, they will get Broadway shows, meals, ice skating, flow rider, rock climbing, and of course STARBUCKS!

If cruise lines realize that the millennials, are prime for picking, they will be able to survive.

Millennials are not the 20 somethings in college.  They are hitting their 30s.  They have careers.  Yet, they are also travel savvy. Cruise lines will have to beat all inclusive resorts.  If cruise lines can come in lower than they will sail impo

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3 minutes ago, Pima1988 said:

This!

My 3 kids (25 to 30 yrs old) envy us because we cruise.  For them it is cheaper to fly and rent and air B&B. We keep saying to them that in the end of the day it is the same cost for a 7 nights, but the difference is every a.m.  we get to sea a new beach and we don't have to make our dinners.

  •  Might be just my kids, but they see the low number/cost.  IOWS, airfare is 250, Air B&B is 500.  750.  Yet, they forgot to add in food for breakfast and lunch (plus making it) going out to dinner, buying drinks, and any excursion.  They could sail on Symphony, interior cabin for probably less than an Air B&B, they will get Broadway shows, meals, ice skating, flow rider, rock climbing, and of course STARBUCKS!

If cruise lines realize that the millennials, are prime for picking, they will be able to survive.

Millennials are not the 20 somethings in college.  They are hitting their 30s.  They have careers.  Yet, they are also travel savvy. Cruise lines will have to beat all inclusive resorts.  If cruise lines can come in lower than they will sail impo

Hi I'm 31 you hit the nail on the head....but we've been doing all inclusives for years even got married at one. I'm more of I need to know what I'm spending before I go. With cruising it's very much the same except I budget for port days. Our October cruise is just labadee and coco cay I feel like I will have no extra fees this trip!

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6 hours ago, Pima1988 said:

We keep saying to them that in the end of the day it is the same cost

When I married my wife 10 years ago, I took her on her first cruise (my 5th).  She only saw the upfront cost and didn't believe it.  Then we did a trip to Universal Studio... She was sold on the cruises after that.  Especially with dinner every night... Where do we want to eat tonight?  Same restaurants, same food... On the ship... same dining room, new food!  And we didn't have to deal with "the food was really good at that restaurant, but the prices were so high!"  I just want to relax and enjoy the vacation.  

I have every confidence the cruise industry as a whole will be OK in the long run.  But I am anxious to get it moving again.

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On 5/7/2020 at 8:02 PM, PurdueFlyer said:

I'll wear my mask to Costco, but after having it on for 30 minutes the other day, I felt there's no way I'd get on a plane until the masks aren't mandatory (and I work for an airline).  if cruising regulations now include masks at all times, im out. 

This!  If I need to walk common areas with a mask, no thanks it annoys me after a few minutes. My wife is an RN (and volunteer EMT) and has to wear masks all day, she wouldn't enjoy a vacation wearing one. 

I'm curious to see what guidelines Royal Caribbean comes up with for keeping everyone safe. I have a final payment in June, so hopefully it's soon. I'm more of the attitude, as little money big company can hold of mine the better. 

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