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Chances of RCL going Bankrupt!!!


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Sadly I think its higher than 50/50 -  CNBC were saying they think maybe no cruising at all till 2022 !  now that might be pessimistic,  but anywhere near that or even 2021  and I dont think any company can sustain that level of cash burn and will have to do some drastic things.    NCL has come out today and said to the SEC so pretty formal - they dont think they will be able to continue as a "going concern"  which means viable business by the end of the year if things continue.    

So RCL while a good company arguably stronger than NCL - have a lot of debt and had really invested way ahead of time,  which will really hurt as all this debt comes due with no cash coming in and lots of refunds and costs going out.  They will have to stem the tide to have any chance, so will likely at least have to  go chapter 11 at some point  - which  means all shareholders get wiped,  and all credits and deposits  and other promises like free this and that also get wiped or a haircut of some sort.  

Pretty much why i took the refund (still to be paid thou) as the extra 25% seems way to big a risk,   and even if it doesn't get wiped,  it could be a long time before its usable. 

Really sad times.  

 

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Without question I am 100% certain they file chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize debt and restructure the company. 
 

I have less and less daily reservation whether it will be a  chapter 7 bankruptcy and they terminate the business and  liquidate the assets. 

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It is going to depend on what happens with those first few cruises. What happens when a suspected active case of covid is found. Will the ship be allowed to dock and everyone get off as normal?  Does it get treated like a case of Norovirus and a quick clean and everything continues?  Or will the ship be quarantined and refused entry to a port?  If the latter, then I would say the chances of CCL and RCL filing bankruptcy to reorganize debt will be 100% ..  

 

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8 hours ago, princevaliantus said:

RCCL has enough liquidity to hold them till almost year end. No need to panic yet. 

Thats based on some pretty optimistic scenarios.  Including being back by year end and I just dont think they will be.  Borders will still be closed..  airlines shutdown etc etc.  They are burning 400m a month and 100m on refunds.  They are also depending on 75% of all rooms full when they do resume.  Which is optimistic in itself. 

I love RCCL I have never been on a cruise with any other company.  But its all stacked against them.  As someone else said chapter 11 is not the end of the world.  Its not good and will hurt them and a lot of customers but its not  Chapter 7 which is shutdown and sell off.   

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2 hours ago, Scrumps said:

It is going to depend on what happens with those first few cruises. What happens when a suspected active case of covid is found. Will the ship be allowed to dock and everyone get off as normal?  Does it get treated like a case of Norovirus and a quick clean and everything continues?  Or will the ship be quarantined and refused entry to a port?  If the latter, then I would say the chances of CCL and RCL filing bankruptcy to reorganize debt will be 100% ..  

If it's the latter, it's hard to see how cruising survives in any form even remotely similar to what we're used to.  That's why it's so important for the cruise lines not to rush back into service.  One misstep could mean the end for a line or even the industry.  

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NCL is in rough shape and may not make it till the end of the year unless things change quickly and drastically from a few articles I have read. Wonder how that will shake up the industry if that was to happen.

 

I am not sure about the whole cruising thing based on social distancing and all the other crap tied to this Covid-19. Personally, I dont care and would haev no issues cruising....but between border closures, flight reductions, and who knows what kinda safety measures put in place for cruising till a vaccine is out....not sure how easy or fun or enjoyable it would be to try and make it work.

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47 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

I am not sure about the whole cruising thing based on social distancing and all the other crap tied to this Covid-19. Personally, I don't care and would have no issues cruising....but between border closures, flight reductions, and who knows what kinda safety measures put in place for cruising till a vaccine is out....not sure how easy or fun or enjoyable it would be to try and make it work.

+1   I feel exactly the same - you speak for me!

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1 hour ago, monctonguy said:

NCL is in rough shape and may not make it till the end of the year unless things change quickly and drastically from a few articles I have read. Wonder how that will shake up the industry if that was to happen.

 

I am not sure about the whole cruising thing based on social distancing and all the other crap tied to this Covid-19. Personally, I dont care and would haev no issues cruising....but between border closures, flight reductions, and who knows what kinda safety measures put in place for cruising till a vaccine is out....not sure how easy or fun or enjoyable it would be to try and make it work.

Exactly. The thought of sitting by the pool with a mask on only to remove it every minute to drink my beer kinda sucks. The entire experience could/will change. I’m just happy I had 30+ years of pre-COVID19 cruising to remember as the good old days. And I can’t handle the floating Petri dish comments anymore. 

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yeah...I think everything has changed...we'll be talking back in the "good old days" of 2019 and prior...lol

 

But I am not sure how they can ever get back...the way the media and government has really played this up(at least here in Canada). What  they have done as a result of the Covid makes me not want to even go to the grocery store...never mind travel. And the airline costs and nightmares at the airport etc....I just dont know.

 

Perhaps once there is a vaccine things will settle back to close to normal.....but I am sure by then we will be caught up in the next big pandemic. And now that the precedent has been set with the overreaction to this one....its going to be like this with every new one that comes along I am sure.....

 

But I really hope I am wrong about everything!

 

Next big decision is what to do about the Nov cruise...….:42_confused:

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4 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

Next big decision is what to do about the Nov cruise...….:42_confused:

Same here.  Next big decision - we have a fully paid for Nov 1st cruise.  Used our points from our BOA RCL Credit Card.  Not sure what to do now.  We need to fly to get there too.  Everything is up in the air so to speak.  When using those CC points they make you sign your life away stating over and over again that they are completely non-refundable.  I can't help but think we may be on a boat up a river, but without a paddle...  ☹️

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13 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

 

 

Next big decision is what to do about the Nov cruise...….:42_confused:

Allow me to be perceptive.

You got an upcoming cruise that you've put $100 USD down on and have all kinds of concerns whether the ship sails, the final payment date is coming up and I might not want to give them money, I'm in a high risk category health wise, or the cruise is one thing but how I get to the boat, the hotel, the airlines, and how enjoyable is arriving a day early gonna be????

Lift and Shift baby!!!

Postpone that cruise (and the payment)  for one year and if things clear up as we get closer to your November vacation date and you feel better about it....pick up the phone and book a new one.

 

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its a lot to consider for sure..time off work, money, travel connections....and who knows if we will even have a option to cruise by that time..so many unknown factors right now.

 

Yeah...we  booked the cruise with a non-refundable deposit....balance due in July...flights back are paid for from the April cruise that got cancelled, but still have to book flights down and they have doubled now in cost, not to mention that our border is closed and no timeframe to open or how quickly or easily it could be closed again....and still a lot of other costs to complete this cruise..and if this one was to be cancelled or I couldn't make it due to travel restrictions..would be a lot to miss out on and the time to spend trying to get back all the $ or credits......

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46 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

yeah...I think everything has changed...we'll be talking back in the "good old days" of 2019 and prior...lol

 

But I am not sure how they can ever get back...the way the media and government has really played this up(at least here in Canada). What  they have done as a result of the Covid makes me not want to even go to the grocery store...never mind travel. And the airline costs and nightmares at the airport etc....I just dont know.

 

Perhaps once there is a vaccine things will settle back to close to normal.....but I am sure by then we will be caught up in the next big pandemic. And now that the precedent has been set with the overreaction to this one....its going to be like this with every new one that comes along I am sure.....

 

But I really hope I am wrong about everything!

 

Next big decision is what to do about the Nov cruise...….:42_confused:

All of this is so depressing - ugh! I already miss the "good old days" when our biggest concern was if RCI was going to honor the $18 per day Deluxe Drink Package. 

Double ugh!

 

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20 minutes ago, D_Hubb said:

All of this is so depressing - ugh! I already miss the "good old days" when our biggest concern was if RCI was going to honor the $18 per day Deluxe Drink Package. 

Double ugh!

 

Ha...yeah, we dont want to miss out on the "free" dining package we got for the Nov cruise...and it would be the first time sailing with a balcony and it would be a brand new ship and  our first time to Coco Cay since it was revamped...so a lot of pluses if we could make it work.....

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I don't know what to do either as we cruise November 8, 2020. Cruise has been fully paid a long time ago. I still do not have flights booked as of yet and don't know if I should or just stand pat? I definitely do not like all this uncertainty. I'd like to think that we will be cruising by then, but that's just me trying t be optimistic.

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19 minutes ago, CJS2766 said:

I don't know what to do either as we cruise November 8, 2020. Cruise has been fully paid a long time ago. I still do not have flights booked as of yet and don't know if I should or just stand pat? I definitely do not like all this uncertainty. I'd like to think that we will be cruising by then, but that's just me trying t be optimistic.

I have a thanksgiving sailing on Oasis and still holding out hope. I’m going to reassess in September. 

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4 hours ago, YOLO said:

Same here.  Next big decision - we have a fully paid for Nov 1st cruise.

Same here too.  Logistically I'm pretty sure it isn't going to happen because the cruise starts in Spain and ends in Miami.  I'm not sure how I will even get to Spain.  It is booked refundable and is fully paid.  However, the biggest portion of the fully paid amount is from a FCC so basically non-refundable.  I could reschedule the cruise for next year but I'm still recovering from the refund and FCC ordeal from the cancelled cruise.

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Per what we see now I think the best chance for cruise will be between October (Maybe September) to January, 
Why ? because we can see how the C19 goes in other places , mainly Europe that start to see the C19 goes down (some country faster than other) so there is a good chance that it will happen also in the US.
Were the cruise will go from ? beside Miami it might be that NJ will be reopen as the C19 started early there and therefore will pass earlier than other places in the US.
Why October- to Jan , this is the window between the first wave to what we hope that will never happen - the second wave.
Regarding all the talks about that cruise will change in a way that it will not make sense to take them ? I think the changes will be temporary but I still remember that people were saying after 9/11 they will not fly again because its not safe or the extra security at airports ... Same about the car seat belts , many people said they will never use it and it will ruin there driving experience.  

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Just now, tonyfsu21 said:

The entire cruise industry might lift & shift into bankruptcy. What a mess, even messier then a floating Petri dish.

Are you saying the the whole industry is dirtier than the floor of the Windjammer at lunchtime? Nah.....

 

I think you'll agree, the Lift and Shift is notice to future cruisers to seek cover and protect yourself. Which, just occurred to me; if you are Lifting and Shifting you should also be adding Cruise Insurance as a part of your new booking.

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After going through that onslaught of negativity I'm gonna toss a wrench in the works... As the post above points out they did a very smart move today with new policy. That is of monumental importance. The virus is one thing but the perception of a "don't care about passengers" cloud was building to a feverish point... If they do concentrate on creating  and improving the image of caring about us then things will be fine... They are solvent into early next year. Then they have some some maneuvering that will need to get done. Creditors  will be forced to re re re adjust their terms. If RCCL goes belly up with the kind of debt they carry it would sink the lenders. So... They are going to flex any way they can. 11 would destroy their ability to continue as being credit worthy .  Liquidation for RCCL would be monumentally difficult Not a lot of buyers out there for steel monsters a quarter mile long with all those "0"s in the price tags. So , no, my Deep self does not see the big B in the window at this time... 

Sorry if I derailed a little of the negativity you worked so hard at making... I'm jst in a mood I guess... ?

 

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