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Message from Head of Carnival Australia but Applicable to all Cruise Lines


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I have attached a link to an update from Carnival Australia regarding the state of the industry in Australia and the demonising of the cruise business there.

i think it is just as applicable to RCI as the world goes into panic mode and seeks to find someone to blame. Earlier this week P&O Explorer whose home port is Sydney was ordered out of harbour even without any cases of Covid-19 ever being reported on the ship.

i don’t see the cruise season down under restarting until at least the end of 2021.

I think RCI will postpone their plans for Lelepa until a future date.

i also think they will delay the construction of Icon class ships because in the present climate, they will have too many ships for the number of destinations they will be able to serve.

I hope we can get back to some sense of normality in the near future as I just want to go for a cruise.
 

 


Pacific Explorer expelled from its home port.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/carnival-cruises-boss-slams-decision-to-force-pacific-explorer-ship-off-shores/news-story/c432abd92c774a03db15490128be5253

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, F1guynz said:

I have attached a link to an update from Carnival Australia regarding the state of the industry in Australia and the demonising of the cruise business there.

i think it is just as applicable to RCI as the world goes into panic mode and seeks to find someone to blame. Earlier this week P&O Explorer whose home port is Sydney was ordered out of harbour even without any cases of Covid-19 ever being reported on the ship.

i don’t see the cruise season down under restarting until at least the end of 2021.

I think RCI will postpone their plans for Lelepa until a future date.

i also think they will delay the construction of Icon class ships because in the present climate, they will have too many ships for the number of destinations they will be able to serve.

I hope we can get back to some sense of normality in the near future as I just want to go for a cruise.
 

 


Pacific Explorer expelled from its home port.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/carnival-cruises-boss-slams-decision-to-force-pacific-explorer-ship-off-shores/news-story/c432abd92c774a03db15490128be5253

 

 

 

The end of 2021???? That's 20 months, approximately. I think that is most definitely an exaggeration.  Australia has been in the cruising business for years and like the rest of us are dedicated to continue cruising and they will be up and running much sooner.

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New Zealand is expecting to have border restriction for the next 12-18 months which will prevent ships from coming here. Australia and New Zealand usually have similar policies so I suspect this will limit the viability of cruising.

the South Pacific will not allow cruises for the foreseeable future so I don’t think it would be no cruises at the end of this year. The season only goes through to April so I don’t think there will be shorted season.

there is also a lot of animosity towards the cruise industry at the moment due to the Ruby Princess causing the indirect infection of over 600 people.

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Cruising will surely be back in at least some capacity before the end of 2021. Barring some unforeseen issue.

I do think it will take years to get back to levels of prosperity they enjoyed before the virus. Something I have learned though is that people who love cruising swear by it no matter what. So the loyalist will be ready to cruise.. They have been ready since the cruises got cancelled.

The issue may come with first time cruise goers for a few years but that should come back once there is a Covid 19 vaccine and/or other preventive measures. 
 

What I’m really curious about is which company will be the first to allow passengers back on to cruise. Because those first few cruises will set the tone. The media would have a field day if cruising resumes and there is outbreak. 

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8 minutes ago, J-Fitz said:

Cruising will surely be back in at least some capacity before the end of 2021. Barring some unforeseen issue.

I do think it will take years to get back to levels of prosperity they enjoyed before the virus. Something I have learned though is that people who love cruising swear by it no matter what. So the loyalist will be ready to cruise.. They have been ready since the cruises got cancelled.

The issue may come with first time cruise goers for a few years but that should come back once there is a Covid 19 vaccine and/or other preventive measures. 
 

What I’m really curious about is which company will be the first to allow passengers back on to cruise. Because those first few cruises will set the tone. The media would have a field day if cruising resumes and there is outbreak. 

And each company need to be very careful with that , because if they star to early and there is outbreak it will be almost like end of cruising for long, long time. 

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I also thinking cruising in general before the end of this year. I am referring to Australia/NZ which has a 7 month cruise season (Oct-Apr) and I just don’t think they will cruise here again until next year.

i hope I am wrong as we have 3 cruises booked but with 2 weeks isolation in each country (if it is still in place) it will make cruising impractical.

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39 minutes ago, F1guynz said:

I also thinking cruising in general before the end of this year. I am referring to Australia/NZ which has a 7 month cruise season (Oct-Apr) and I just don’t think they will cruise here again until next year.

i hope I am wrong as we have 3 cruises booked but with 2 weeks isolation in each country (if it is still in place) it will make cruising impractical.

The 7 month season only applies to some cruise lines.

It will most likely be Carnival (which was starting it's first year round cruising with Carnival Splendor this year), or P&O that make the first move if cruising is to restarted before October.

RCI have the benefit in this region of seeing what plays out with other cruise lines before committing to their season starting in October.

I also wonder if they will now change their plans to bring Quantum here after it's Alaska season in 2021. 

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I agree largely with F1guynz. It's hard to see cruising starting anytime in at least the next 12 months.  Australia is essentially in lockdown and the public is being primed to expect this to remain for a good 6 months. After that, it will be a softly softly approach to re-opening society, with the possibility of retreating again if secondary outbreaks occur.

I'm seeing a lot of posts on these boards about cruisers optimistic about their August cruise, or their September cruise, or whenever. I don't see that as realistic. Not even close. It makes me wonder if the messaging in North America from the authorities is not as urgent as down here?

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2 hours ago, F1guynz said:

I have attached a link to an update from Carnival Australia regarding the state of the industry in Australia and the demonising of the cruise business there.

i think it is just as applicable to RCI as the world goes into panic mode and seeks to find someone to blame. Earlier this week P&O Explorer whose home port is Sydney was ordered out of harbour even without any cases of Covid-19 ever being reported on the ship.
Pacific Explorer expelled from its home port.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/carnival-cruises-boss-slams-decision-to-force-pacific-explorer-ship-off-shores/news-story/c432abd92c774a03db15490128be5253

 

 

 

This is basically thanks to the Ruby Princess debacle.

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10 hours ago, KWofPerth said:

It makes me wonder if the messaging in North America from the authorities is not as urgent as down here?

I think the U.S. messaging is very focused on the next few weeks to months with little mention or messaging about life 3 - 24 months away.  The focus is on the coming hump with hopefully low hundreds of thousands dead.  

If you read between the main headlines you can come to the conclusion by yourself that this virus will still be with us 18 - 24 months from now when hopefully a vaccine will start to become available but the media is so focused on the White House briefings that they aren't mentioning the long range outlook or very much at all about life after June.  The media up here is historically split along political lines and that remains evident in the coverage most are providing of the virus.  The media spends so much energy dissecting every word of the near daily White House briefings to support their left or right political views that they aren't thinking independently enough to address life 12 months from now.

Consequently there is hope of cruising in June or July up here while I personally think the probability of that is pretty low.  I think Royal has figured it out otherwise they wouldn't have secured several billion in backup loans to get through it.  You don't need 3 billion in loans to get through 3 or 4 months.

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12 hours ago, twangster said:

If only China had been more open about this virus early, the impact to the cruise industry might have been greatly diminished.  

 

I strongly disagree.

You can't blame China if you also did not heed the advice from South Korea and the excellent job that was done there.

 

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19 hours ago, twangster said:

Glad I made it down under and to New Zealand on a cruise when I did

I am glad you got to enjoy your time down in this part of the world. 

We were only on a cruise 5 weeks ago, that seems like a lifetime ago. The virus was just something on the news in the background. Now we are locked down in our homes for the next 4 weeks trying to break the chain of infection.

i am working from home but really look forward to the day when I can return to the office.

We were also due to get married next month but have had to postpone the wedding until next year.

Stay healthy twangster and everyone else in our online community.

 

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50 minutes ago, F1guynz said:

I am glad you got to enjoy your time down in this part of the world. 

We were only on a cruise 5 weeks ago, that seems like a lifetime ago. The virus was just something on the news in the background. Now we are locked down in our homes for the next 4 weeks trying to break the chain of infection.

i am working from home but really look forward to the day when I can return to the office.

We were also due to get married next month but have had to postpone the wedding until next year.

Stay healthy twangster and everyone else in our online community.

 

Sorry to hear you've had to reschedule the wedding but such is life in these crazy times.

Stay well and congratulations on your upcoming wedding!

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7 hours ago, bobroo said:

I strongly disagree.

You can't blame China if you also did not heed the advice from South Korea and the excellent job that was done there.

 

 

2 hours ago, ehw51 said:

I agree, you can´t blame China. Our own govt downplayed it, South Korea was yelling about it early and seemed to do a good job. It looks like the Pacific cruises are more in jeopardy long term as of now.

Early on China claimed it wasn't spreading human to human.  If that news had been corrected earlier compared to letting the world (including South Korea) find out once community spread was common place and in full force places like Europe and the North America may have been spared a significant amount of what it has gone through.  

It's not just the US that was slow to react.  The slow reaction was founded in reports coming from China in the early days.  

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Can totally blame China.

For not only lying and covering up the virus, but for their disgusting practices that cause these kinds of things in the first place.

It's no surprise that doctors who tried to let the world know what was happening went '"missing".

Back to the topic. Carnival now face a criminal investigation 

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-australia-criminal-investigation-to-be-launched-in-ruby-princess-cruise-ship-debacle-c-957415

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It seems odd to only single out the cruise industry when aeroplanes were flying people in with Covid-19 all the time, that is where most cases in NZ originated from. Should they be criminally liable for any deaths as a result of Covid-19 as well?

 

 

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2 hours ago, F1guynz said:

It seems odd to only single out the cruise industry when aeroplanes were flying people in with Covid-19 all the time, that is where most cases in NZ originated from. Should they be criminally liable for any deaths as a result of Covid-19 as well?

 

 

I personally know two individuals that flew BACK INTO the US on "aeroplanes" into MAJOR airports (Dulles and San Francisco) from other countries (Honduras and Japan) AFTER the ban on non-US Citizens went into effect (they are both US Citizens so were allowed to come home) and when they both landed there was NO ONE to check those coming off the planes.

They just walked off AS usual and got their luggage and went home. Walked through customs with no questions, no temp taking, no "where have you been?" or "how do you feel?"

Nada. Zip. Zilch.

My friend that came from Japan was shocked. They had expected to be screened getting off the plane before or during customs.

From what I am hearing on the ground, cruise ships sound 1000% safer to travel via than planes.

The airlines are doing zero screening or checking of anyone from what I am hearing.

 

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2 hours ago, F1guynz said:

It seems odd to only single out the cruise industry when aeroplanes were flying people in with Covid-19 all the time, that is where most cases in NZ originated from. Should they be criminally liable for any deaths as a result of Covid-19 as well?

Airplanes, trains and buses don't have medical teams on them who are required to report illness on board.  Neither do grocery stores, churches, schools or sports stadiums.

It's difficult to track the movements of someone who flew domestically but stood in a line to get a coffee with someone who just got off a plane from China.  Three minutes in that line in close proximity they now touch the credit card machine right after that passenger from China and now they have it without even knowing.  Next they board a plane for a short flight within their country and by the time the plane lands 6 more are infected.  

On a cruise ship every visit to the medical center is logged and documented.  Upon arriving from being away a ship is asked about any health issues and they are required to report it.  A local ferry boat might see one infected person board and 20 minute later there are dozens of infected COVID-19 passengers but no one knows it so it goes unreported.   Some of those now go to church or school or a grocery store but no one knows so it goes unreported.

The fact is that community spread was occurring as passengers boarded cruise ships around the world but nobody knew it at the time.  Guests unknowingly brought it on board a cruise ship but they caught COVID-19 on land and introduced it to the ship - the ship didn't make the virus out of thin air.  At that same moment community spread was occurring at hundreds of social gatherings from school to church to bars to neighborhood card games but there is no way to capture that and document it like there is on a cruise ship.

The media can't report that which is undocumented yet we all now know was occurring.  It's unproven theory even though it's accepted within the scientific community.  Hard counts in documented reports from ship medical logs are facts that are easily picked up by the media.  "Seventeen guests with flu like symptoms" is a hard fact that a journalist can write an entire story around.  

Banning churches and school would be a hard sell for any free society to accept so they quietly get included in stay at home policies.  Calling out and banning a luxury vacation industry is an easier sell that makes it look like governments are doing something despite the fact that it doesn't really do anything at this point and those same stay at home policies already cover the cruise industry.

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12 minutes ago, twangster said:

Airplanes, trains and buses don't have medical teams on them who are required to report illness on board.  Neither do grocery stores, churches, schools or sports stadiums.

It's difficult to track the movements of someone who flew domestically but stood in a line to get a coffee with someone who just got off a plane from China.  Three minutes in that line in close proximity they now touch the credit card machine right after that passenger from China and now they have it without even knowing.  Next they board a plane for a short flight within their country and by the time the plane lands 6 more are infected.  

On a cruise ship every visit to the medical center is logged and documented.  Upon arriving from being away a ship is asked about any health issues and they are required to report it.  A local ferry boat might see one infected person board and 20 minute later there are dozens of infected COVID-19 passengers but no one knows it so it goes unreported.   Some of those now go to church or school or a grocery store but no one knows so it goes unreported.

The fact is that community spread was occurring as passengers boarded cruise ships around the world but nobody knew it at the time.  Guests unknowingly brought it on board a cruise ship but they caught COVID-19 on land and introduced it to the ship - the ship didn't make the virus out of thin air.  At that same moment community spread was occurring at hundreds of social gatherings from school to church to bars to neighborhood card games but there is no way to capture that and document it like there is on a cruise ship.

The media can't report that which is undocumented yet we all now know was occurring.  It's unproven theory even though it's accepted within the scientific community.  Hard counts in documented reports from ship medical logs are facts that are easily picked up by the media.  "Seventeen guests with flu like symptoms" is a hard fact that a journalist can write an entire story around.  

Banning churches and school would be a hard sell for any free society to accept so they quietly get included in stay at home policies.  Calling out and banning a luxury vacation industry is an easier sell that makes it look like governments are doing something despite the fact that it doesn't really do anything at this point and those same stay at home policies already cover the cruise industry.

 

@twangster I wish I could hug you, this post is absolutely spot on!!!

 

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One major difference with Australia is how isolated our population is to start with.

This is one of the few times it is good to live in one of the most isolated cities in the world (Perth). Western Australia has closed it's borders to the rest of the country, and other states are doing the same. With a bit of luck, this could mean that Australia can actually get ahead of the virus very quickly.

New Zealand was even quicker to act, and also has a good chance to get on top of it as well.

Once we have a period where there are no cases of Covid 19 in either country, cruises may well start up again. If other parts of the world are not allowing cruises, but Australia and NZ are, it won't take long for ships to get here. Considering how long it takes a ship to reach places like Sydney or Melbourne from another part of the world, a 14 day quarantine period for the crew is simple. Obviously the cruises would only be for people already in Australia or NZ, but at least there could be a chance.

 

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On 4/5/2020 at 12:01 AM, mattymay said:

Interesting that there is a criminal investigation regarding how guests got off the ship, but not one that addresses how guests were allowed to board the ship in Sydney with the virus.  

To focus exclusively on debarkation while ignoring that guests who didn't know they were infected were able to board the ship seems like it's not going to lead to a thorough and complete investigation.  

When I left Australia mid-February they reviewed my passport for any indication of travel to China but that was it.  It seems odd to expend so many resources to look at one event on a cruise ship while ignoring all the other avenues of spread that was occurring before and during the same period.  Why were people allowed to get off airplanes or trains that had the virus or flu like symptoms? 

On the way to the ship those same infected guests did infect others in the Sydney area.  Taxi drivers, hotel employees, bus drivers, OPT terminal workers, etc.  Community spread in the Sydney area was occurring as the ship was boarding.

Why wasn't a lockdown or other actions taken by the government ordered earlier that would have prevented ill guests from boarding the ship in the first place?  The obvious answer is that hindsight is 20-20. 

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

Interesting that there is a criminal investigation regarding how guests got off the ship,  

I agree...is it not protocol for the ship to inform the port authority of any ill passengers, regardless of the nature of the illness(be it Noroviru, common cold, flu etc)...how could they not know; and yet approve the disembarkment of passengers...otherwise, the port authority would have turn the ship around, correct?

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I thought there were situations where the ship was required to advise the port of onboard illness.  I can’t remember the actual percentages, but I do believe that if there are X percentage of guests and/or crew suffering from flu-like symptoms, the ship must alert the port prior to entering.  I know this has been the case for norovirus in the past.

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40 minutes ago, WAAAYTOOO said:

I thought there were situations where the ship was required to advise the port of onboard illness.  I can’t remember the actual percentages, but I do believe that if there are X percentage of guests and/or crew suffering from flu-like symptoms, the ship must alert the port prior to entering.  I know this has been the case for norovirus in the past.

There are CDC reporting requirements for US based cruises that list specific rates of infection. 

I'm not sure there are mandatory reporting requirements for any given port.  Having said that when a ship approaches a port to request entry the port can inquire about illness on board.  In the past that likely wasn't done very often for many ports of call but I imagine in the current environment it's one of the first questions asked when a ship makes initial contact upon arrival.

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4 minutes ago, twangster said:

There are CDC reporting requirements for US based cruises that list specific rates of infection. 

I'm not sure there are mandatory reporting requirements for any given port.  Having said that when a ship approaches a port to request entry the port can inquire about illness on board.  In the past that likely wasn't done very often for many ports of call but I imagine in the current environment it's one of the first questions asked when a ship makes initial contact upon arrival.

And I'm guessing this might be one of the permanent changes going forward.

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11 minutes ago, FManke said:

And I'm guessing this might be one of the permanent changes going forward.

That would be for each country to formulate and create a policy to report.  Some might adopt US CDC reporting requirements, some might stick to simply asking the question.  Keep in mind for every cruise ship there are hundreds of merchant vessels visiting any given country.  Most laws are written to address the shipping industry in general terms, not specific to cruise ships.

I imagine once the world is well past this particular virus that many ports will relax and stop asking the question at first contact.  Think 3, 5 or 10 years from now.  I'm not certain it will be permanent.

 

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I personally do not see cruising taking off again much until a cure is found. It will take just 1 passenger coming down with covid on 1 ship to stall the entire industry.  Many countries will not be opening ports for a long time and any ship that does announce an inflection will be stuck at sea with governments and the public screaming how stupid people are for going back on a cruise ship.

We have a cruise to NZ in January and even though Delta has some great prices on flights to SYD, we are holding off because I just can't see AUS or NZ opening up until covid is cured.

Just my 2c.

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1 hour ago, Scrumps said:

I personally do not see cruising taking off again much until a cure is found.

I don't know if a full-blown cure needs to be found, more that enough of the world's population has been exposed and recovered that we reach the level of "herd immunity" in all the countries a cruise itinerary would visit. How do we know that we've hit that point? When the number of new confirmed cases has steadily decreased for whatever period of time is necessary that we reach a floor instead of a plateau, and easing of shelter-in-place restrictions doesn't cause that number to go back up. That tells us enough of the population in a region is now immune that casual spread of the disease is going to be massively curtailed.

In Hong Kong and some other Asian nations that thought they were past the worst and eased their restrictions, they now have a second surge happening. So clearly they're not at that level yet and are now going through a fresh round of hell. Just saw the NY governor's latest update, where he called that out and very sternly told New Yorkers to keep the frick inside their homes and stop going to the parks and other places where they're doing anything but social distancing. And NY hasn't even conclusively hit a plateau yet with new infections. ? 

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Carnival are saying they were cleared by authorities to dock in Sydney after reporting the numbers of sick they had on board. NSW Health then boarded the ship and cleared it to leave on that final cruise. It then returned early as they again had a large number of sick on board, and no way to test for COVID. Authorities again cleared them to dock after reporting numbers of sick that they had on board and passengers were allowed to leave.

A lot of heat on the cruise line but sounds like the NSW government has a part to play in this as well.

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7 hours ago, JLMoran said:

I don't know if a full-blown cure needs to be found, more that enough of the world's population has been exposed and recovered that we reach the level of "herd immunity" in all the countries a cruise itinerary would visit. How do we know that we've hit that point? When the number of new confirmed cases has steadily decreased for whatever period of time is necessary that we reach a floor instead of a plateau, and easing of shelter-in-place restrictions doesn't cause that number to go back up. That tells us enough of the population in a region is now immune that casual spread of the disease is going to be massively curtailed.

In Hong Kong and some other Asian nations that thought they were past the worst and eased their restrictions, they now have a second surge happening. So clearly they're not at that level yet and are now going through a fresh round of hell. Just saw the NY governor's latest update, where he called that out and very sternly told New Yorkers to keep the frick inside their homes and stop going to the parks and other places where they're doing anything but social distancing. And NY hasn't even conclusively hit a plateau yet with new infections. ? 

We aren’t sure if herd immunity will work on Covid-19 or if it does what percentage of the population must have it.Sometimes it can be low as 40% or as high as around 90%. We need a vaccine to have a safe way to take advantage herd immunity. 
 

Also people would need to actually take a vaccine but now people suddenly don’t like to do that. Which is why measles... MEASLES!!! pop up in communities. 


 

 

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I personally don’t see NZ opening its borders this year without minimum isolation periods being enforced. We have already been advised that border controls will remain in place for some time. Air New Zealand is laying off 30% of workforce as an expectation that in 12 months time there will not be very much International travel from NZ and that it will mainly be a domestic airline.

Countries around the world will be at different levels of containment and we can’t risk a new outbreak being imported again once we control it.

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Now that P&O Australia has been forced from their Sydney home port they are heading to the Philippines and Indonesia to bring their crew home.

A nice gesture by them.

http://crew-center.com/po-australia-fleet-sailing-philippines-and-indonesia?fbclid=IwAR1TZkVvJSDaaIZNhM_CCfYX24YJ9guTITub2zJNwHOQ8cI5nH5lqquqOkc

 

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One thing that might open cruising sooner is those instant test result kits.  I was watching a segment on what they did in Taiwan and how they were testing people as they got off the aircraft...   Since these tests can get results in 15 mins, imagine everyone checking in having to be tested, then having to wait the 15 minutes for the results before they are allowed to board. Do that for every port of call for everyone. Yes, delays things, but might be a temporary solution.  I am sure it will not be long before those tests are down to a minute or less.

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1 hour ago, Scrumps said:

One thing that might open cruising sooner is those instant test result kits.  I was watching a segment on what they did in Taiwan and how they were testing people as they got off the aircraft...   Since these tests can get results in 15 mins, imagine everyone checking in having to be tested, then having to wait the 15 minutes for the results before they are allowed to board. Do that for every port of call for everyone. Yes, delays things, but might be a temporary solution.  I am sure it will not be long before those tests are down to a minute or less.

I completely agree with you. I believe this is how it will go, for a while.

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The criminal investigation is because the border force / port authority /health dept are all blaming each other for disembarking passengers without screening or enforced isolation.. as far as I can see the ship followed all protocols informing authorities of a number of sick passengers on board before being given permission to dock....as a result of a monumental stuff up by [who knows] there have been multiple deaths/cross infections  from covid19 that could have had a better outcome ....the criminal investigation will be for a coroners inquest into these deaths.....the poor crew are still on board being questioned as well as being in danger of further disease..its a shambles at least some lovely people from Woolongong where it is docked have sent care packages onboard for them so they can at least feel the Easter spirit and know not all of us Aussies are against them

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12 hours ago, KWofPerth said:

This does not make pleasant reading I'm afraid. There's a lot of animosity towards cruise lines out there, not totally unjustified.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-spells-the-end-of-the-line-for-cruise-ships/12141140

This is why, although some cruises may start later this year, I believe my NZ cruise in January is not going to happen. I really can't see NZ opening up their ports for the 2020/21 season.

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I agree Scrumps. The chances of NZ opening up ti's ports to any cruise ship this coming season (Aug 20/ April 21) is small to non existent. I think the Pacific Islands are likely to be the same situation (Or at least I hope they are, COVID-19 going through somewhere like Tonga, Samoa or Fiji would be devastating. We already saw what could happen with measles in Samoa last year). Until there is a test that comes hack instantly that shows you have either had it or haven't got it I can't see a lot of ports around the world allowing ships in. 

 

 

 

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